UK parliamentary by-elections 2014

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Caused by the death of Paul Goggins who had been the Member of Parliament for this seat since its creation in 1997.

...but is effectively an expanded (and therefore less solidly proletarian) Manchester Wythenshawe, a seat held for most of its formal existence by one of my political heroes (the great Alf Morris). Until 1974 the constituency crossed the Mersey to include Didsbury (!!!) and the seat was more political balanced: initially a Conservative marginal, Morris gained it for Labour in '64 and it basically turned into a safe seat overnight.

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Quite a lot of places have been called the largest council estate in Europe. Wythenshawe is certainly huge though: more a council-built New Town constructed over several decades than a council estate in the conventional sense of the term.

Anyway, Manchester Labour are very well organised.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

http://labourlist.org/2014/01/wythenshawe-and-sale-east-whos-in-the-running-to-be-labours-candidate/

Though a bit of a howler there: John Battle was a Leeds MP.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I don't think they've ever run as an 'old style Labour Party' (whatever that would even mean) anywhere. They do have a couple of left-wing cranks in some areas, but that's not the same thing...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I suspect that Wythenshawe Labour not picking a Catholic would be an indication that the apocalypse is near.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Always happens wi' by-elections.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

All rumours pretty meaningless at this stage, of course, but a Labour majority of at least 25% it seems. Very varied turnout rumours.

But it's possible that they've not even really started counting yet.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Turnout is confirmed at a very low (but just above comic) 28%.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour reported to be leading by c. 30pts or so. Reports that the LibDems have requested a recount to save their deposit: that they are on 4.99% or so.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Result within the next half hour.

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LibDems twenty votes short of the magic 5%. Photo of a bundle-check to find said votes if they exist...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour hold

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Labour 13261 55.3%
UKIP      4301 17.9%
Con       3479 14.5%
LDem    1176  4.9%
Greenn   748 3.1%
BNP        708 2.9%
MRLP      288 1.2%

Labour maj. 8,960 (37.4%)

Butler Swing of -11.1%

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Biggest percentage majority ever for Labour here, including when the seat was just Wythenshawe.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Which constituency is likely to see the biggest fall (in terms of percentage of voters from 2010) I wonder? I'm tempted to go with Barnsley East.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Anyway, context is good, so let's have a list of historical majorities for constituencies including Wythenshawe.

Manchester Wythenshawe was created for the 1950 election and as well as the eponymous estate it crossed the Mersey to include the middle class suburbs of Didsbury and Barlow Moor. As Wythenshawe grew, Barlow Moor was removed for the 1955 election and Didsbury for 1974.

1950: Con 12.1, 1951: Con 12.9, 1955: Con 5.7, 1959: Con 2.3, 1964: Labour 8.5, 1966: Labour 17.3, 1970: Labour 10.5, 1974Feb Labour 25.8, 1974Oct Labour 31.6, 1979: Labour 26.6, 1983 Labour 25.2, 1987 Labour 28.2, 1992 Labour 32.1

By this point Wythenshawe's population was falling (in common with the rest of the City of Manchester), and so for 1997 the present constituency was formed. Labour's notional 1992 majority was 14.6.

1997: Labour 33.0, 2001 Labour 36.0, 2005 30.0, 2010 18.6

[Filuwaúrdjan]

On current boundaries this ought to be a rock-solid Conservative seat: former versions of Newark included various industrial towns and villages (mostly on or just off the Nottinghamshire coalfield), the last of which were removed at the last boundary review. So now we're left with a prosperous semi-rural constituency based around a large country town.

But these are dire circumstances for a government defence. UKIP have not done well in the area, but they're a generic protest party as much as anything else, so...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

A few weeks after would be stupid, but after summer?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

PB.com on the implications of a UKIP win

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That site rots the brain. Try to wean yourself off it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I see that this will be a most edifying and enlightening campaign.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

He has his own resources as MEP and his views won't be as much of a hindrance in Newark as they are among internet progressives.

Doubtless not, but views like that are hardly mainstream in places like Newark either. Its a large country town, not one of those weird little places out in the Fens.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Obviously if you wanted it to hurt electorally you'd have to do something other than jump up and down and scream bigot. Not disputing that...

Slightly tangentially, MEPs have historically made less than brilliant by-election candidates. 'Issues' tend to come with being based in Brussels...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Now that is a fair point.

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Survation poll for the Scum: Con 36, UKIP 28, Labour 27, LDem 5

Take with appropriately vast quantities of salt.

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And another poll, this time done for Lord Ashcroft: Con 42, UKIP 27, Labour 20, LDem 6

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Results at the last General Election:

Patrick Mercer (Con) 27,590 - 53.9%
Ian Campbell (Lab) 11,438 - 22.8%
Pauline Jenkins (LDem) 10,246 - 20.0%
Tom Irvine (UKIP) 1,954 - 3.8%

Majority 16,152 (31.5%)

Turnout was 71.4%