What happens to Illinois without Obama?

[Frodo]

Mind you that Hawaii treated Obama as his home state, both in 2008 and 2012. Illinois might actually treat itself as Hillary's home state, since she was born there (just like Obama was born & grew up in Hawaii). Don't know how many years Hillary lived in Illinois though?

According to Wiki, she didn't leave Illinois until she enrolled in Wellesley College in Massachusetts in 1965.  She was about eighteen years old.  

[Mr. Illini]

Despite the strong conservative base in Illinois, there is no way we can win Illinois any time soon, unless we can better court urban voters.

What strong conservative base? The Democrats have a strong liberal base in Chicago and much of the suburbs, while the Republican vote comes from dispersed voters across the rural parts of the state (just like every other strong Democrat state).

People always underestimate Democratic strength in the Midwest just because it doesn't touch an ocean. The Midwest has a lot of Democratic strength, and the center of it is most certainly Illinois.

[old timey villain]

Despite the strong conservative base in Illinois, there is no way we can win Illinois any time soon, unless we can better court urban voters.

What strong conservative base? The Democrats have a strong liberal base in Chicago and much of the suburbs, while the Republican vote comes from dispersed voters across the rural parts of the state (just like every other strong Democrat state).

People always underestimate Democratic strength in the Midwest just because it doesn't touch an ocean. The Midwest has a lot of Democratic strength, and the center of it is most certainly Illinois.

The midwest is just very different from the urban east and west coasts because of where the voters are.
In states like California, Oregon, Washington, New York, NJ and PA Democrats are mainly concerned with running up their margins in urban areas to win, because those states have a classic urban/rural political divide. It's different in a lot of midwestern states where the cities alone can't carry the entire state. Democrats can't carry Minnesota without the iron range, or Wisconson without the rural farm counties or even Michigan without the UP. To my knowledge Illinois is really the only midwestern state where Democrats can win with just one big urban area. 

[Sol]

Despite the strong conservative base in Illinois, there is no way we can win Illinois any time soon, unless we can better court urban voters.

What strong conservative base? The Democrats have a strong liberal base in Chicago and much of the suburbs, while the Republican vote comes from dispersed voters across the rural parts of the state (just like every other strong Democrat state).

People always underestimate Democratic strength in the Midwest just because it doesn't touch an ocean. The Midwest has a lot of Democratic strength, and the center of it is most certainly Illinois.

The midwest is just very different from the urban east and west coasts because of where the voters are.
In states like California, Oregon, Washington, New York, NJ and PA Democrats are mainly concerned with running up their margins in urban areas to win, because those states have a classic urban/rural political divide. It's different in a lot of midwestern states where the cities alone can't carry the entire state. Democrats can't carry Minnesota without the iron range, or Wisconson without the rural farm counties or even Michigan without the UP. To my knowledge Illinois is really the only midwestern state where Democrats can win with just one big urban area. 

Although Democrats are also quite dependent on those urban areas too- Someone was doing a series a while back where they cut out the largest county in various states, and in almost every Midwestern one, the state flipped to Romney.

[Mr. Illini]

Despite the strong conservative base in Illinois, there is no way we can win Illinois any time soon, unless we can better court urban voters.

What strong conservative base? The Democrats have a strong liberal base in Chicago and much of the suburbs, while the Republican vote comes from dispersed voters across the rural parts of the state (just like every other strong Democrat state).

People always underestimate Democratic strength in the Midwest just because it doesn't touch an ocean. The Midwest has a lot of Democratic strength, and the center of it is most certainly Illinois.

The midwest is just very different from the urban east and west coasts because of where the voters are.
In states like California, Oregon, Washington, New York, NJ and PA Democrats are mainly concerned with running up their margins in urban areas to win, because those states have a classic urban/rural political divide. It's different in a lot of midwestern states where the cities alone can't carry the entire state. Democrats can't carry Minnesota without the iron range, or Wisconson without the rural farm counties or even Michigan without the UP. To my knowledge Illinois is really the only midwestern state where Democrats can win with just one big urban area. 

Although Democrats are also quite dependent on those urban areas too- Someone was doing a series a while back where they cut out the largest county in various states, and in almost every Midwestern one, the state flipped to Romney.

Are there any states outside of Vermont and Rhode Island where this would occur? I mean, the trend may be emphasized in some states, but the urban-rural divide is strong enough nationally that I would expect essentially all Democrat states to flip with their largest county area cut out.

[Nichlemn]

Despite the strong conservative base in Illinois, there is no way we can win Illinois any time soon, unless we can better court urban voters.

What strong conservative base? The Democrats have a strong liberal base in Chicago and much of the suburbs, while the Republican vote comes from dispersed voters across the rural parts of the state (just like every other strong Democrat state).

People always underestimate Democratic strength in the Midwest just because it doesn't touch an ocean. The Midwest has a lot of Democratic strength, and the center of it is most certainly Illinois.

The midwest is just very different from the urban east and west coasts because of where the voters are.
In states like California, Oregon, Washington, New York, NJ and PA Democrats are mainly concerned with running up their margins in urban areas to win, because those states have a classic urban/rural political divide. It's different in a lot of midwestern states where the cities alone can't carry the entire state. Democrats can't carry Minnesota without the iron range, or Wisconson without the rural farm counties or even Michigan without the UP. To my knowledge Illinois is really the only midwestern state where Democrats can win with just one big urban area. 

Although Democrats are also quite dependent on those urban areas too- Someone was doing a series a while back where they cut out the largest county in various states, and in almost every Midwestern one, the state flipped to Romney.

Are there any states outside of Vermont and Rhode Island where this would occur? I mean, the trend may be emphasized in some states, but the urban-rural divide is strong enough nationally that I would expect essentially all Democrat states to flip with their largest county area cut out.

Actually, most of them would stay Democratic (though some by tiny margins, with Republican PVIs). Like in the West, only NV would flip to Romney. VA stays Democratic, as does the Northeast barring PA.

Now, some of this is simply due to differential sizes of counties. If VA had a county that took up much of a NoVA, the rest of the state would flip to Romney.

[Linus Van Pelt]

Using 2012 results, of the states won by Obama:

ME stays D without Cumberland
NH stays D without Hillsborough
VT stays D without Chittenden (of course, since all counties are D)
MA stays D without Middlesex (of course, since all counties are D)
RI stays D without Providence (of course, since all counties are D)
CT stays D without Fairfield
NY stays D without Kings (and indeed without all of NYC)
NJ stays D without Bergen
PA flips to R without Philadelphia
DE flips to R without New Castle
MD stays D without Montgomery
VA stays D without Fairfax (though it flips to R without Fairfax plus its urban cutouts if you include Arlington as having been carved out for the original DC)
OH flips to R without Cuyahoga
MI stays D without Wayne
IL flips to R without Cook
WI stays D without Milwaukee
MN stays D without Hennepin
IA stays D without Polk
FL flips to R without Miami-Dade
CO stays D without Jefferson (though it flips to R without Denver alone, so this is sort of an artifact of the fact that the largest county is suburban)
NM stays D without Bernalillo
WA stays D without King
OR stays D without Multnomah
NV flips to R without Clark
CA stays D without Los Angeles
HI stays D without Honolulu (of course, since all counties are D)

[hopper]

CA was a much different in 2004 than it is now, though. ILL is arguably more Republican and still can elect Republicans statewide. CA does not. Also demographically, CA is far more difficult for the GOP then ILL.

Why do you say CA is different now than it was in 2004 besides the demographic changes?

Illinois is far more Republican than CA?

Presidential PVI's:

CA: D+9
Ill: D+8

I see what you are saying though Illinois has kinda stayed stable in terms of Presidential PVI while CA has slowly gotten more Dem in Presidential PVI by each passing cycle of late.

[Mister Mets]

Mind you that Hawaii treated Obama as his home state, both in 2008 and 2012. Illinois might actually treat itself as Hillary's home state, since she was born there (just like Obama was born & grew up in Hawaii). Don't know how many years Hillary lived in Illinois though?

As noted before, bumps in small states are much more significant.

Part of the reason is that's a rare thing for someone closely associated with the state to run for President. It's not often that someone from Hawaii, Arkansas or Kansas runs for President.

It won't be that unusual for Illinois Democrats when someone from the state runs for Prez, since it's happened before. Hillary also won't have the advantage Obama did of voters in the state being more familiar with her than voters elsewhere, or being more comfortable voting for her . That might prevent her from getting the same kind of blowout win, but it shouldn't alter the party that wins the state.

[retromike22]

The Governor's race is heating up:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/03/illinois-governor-race-2014-pat-quinn-104689.html?hp=f2

[fartboy]

It'll be light blue 58-41 for a generic Democrat.

[Mr. Illini]

The Governor's race is heating up:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/03/illinois-governor-race-2014-pat-quinn-104689.html?hp=f2

The fact that Quinn is doing so well with such a low approval rating is a tesimony to how inelastically Democratic Illinois is. He'd be trailing by a lot in Wisconsin or even Minnesota.

[Linus Van Pelt]

CO stays D without Jefferson

Random bump, but I realize, looking at the census estimates, that this is the correct county to use by votes but incorrect by population - Jefferson, though it had the most votes, is only the third-largest county by population, behind El Paso and Denver.

[Rockefeller GOP]

When Cook County is such a huge portion of the population, of course the state will go D.  However, with the exception of the Quad Cities, Rockford, Peoria (whose suburb counties are Republican), Champaign, Springfield and a few traditionally Democratic in Southern Illinois, the state is actually quite Republican.  I'd imagine the White vote in Illinois is actually significantly more Republican than the White vote in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin or Michigan...

[retromike22]

Update with the results of Election 2014 in.

[Senate Minority Leader Lord Voldemort]

Hillary doesn't have a real home state.