James Lankford (R OK-5) to run for Tom Coburn's Senate Seat

[RogueBeaver]

Long Shannon profile in NYT.

[Maxwell]

Thanks Grant. I'll be watching this race to see what happens here, but it looks like there are at least 3 [maybe Russell too] candidates who could make the run-off.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Max,

I'm new to OK-1.  Do you know if there are any viable candidates running for Bridenstine's seat on either side of the aisle?  How do you like Bridenstine?

[Maxwell]

Max,

I'm new to OK-1.  Do you know if there are any viable candidates running for Bridenstine's seat on either side of the aisle?  How do you like Bridenstine?

OK-1 is extremely Republican [even for Oklahoma], and Bridenstine isn't going face a credible challenger, to his right or to his left. The only reason Sullivan was held to relatively weak margins for a long time was because he had a relatively strong opponent and he's scandal ridden and rehab prone. Since Sullivan's been defeated, this district won't be competitive any time soon.

In fact, Bridenstine is running completely unopposed.

Bridenstine is one of the better House Republicans in mind - fairly anti-leadership, voted with the Amash defund the NSA bill. That being said, he's also kind of a fringe character, more in line with Ted Cruz than Rand Paul. You probably won't like him.

[Joe Biden 2020]

Max,

I'm new to OK-1.  Do you know if there are any viable candidates running for Bridenstine's seat on either side of the aisle?  How do you like Bridenstine?

OK-1 is extremely Republican [even for Oklahoma], and Bridenstine isn't going face a credible challenger, to his right or to his left. The only reason Sullivan was held to relatively weak margins for a long time was because he had a relatively strong opponent and he's scandal ridden and rehab prone. Since Sullivan's been defeated, this district won't be competitive any time soon.

In fact, Bridenstine is running completely unopposed.

Bridenstine is one of the better House Republicans in mind - fairly anti-leadership, voted with the Amash defund the NSA bill. That being said, he's also kind of a fringe character, more in line with Ted Cruz than Rand Paul. You probably won't like him.

I'll have to give him time to prove himself to me.  I'm not going to pass judgment on someone I've only been under for 2 weeks.

[Simfan34]

Shannon's going to win this, right? Or is Oklahoma too racist? This would be the second black-on-black Senate race after Obama vs. Keyes 2004, right?

[Maxwell]

Shannon's going to win this, right? Or is Oklahoma too racist? This would be the second black-on-black Senate race after Obama vs. Keyes 2004, right?

Shannon has momentum on his side. I could see a large win for him. Lankford is doing too little too late.

[TX Conservative Dem]

When's Oklahoma's statewide primary?

What is the latest of exit polling and TV Advertising between Shannon and Lankford ?

[Joe Biden 2020]

When's Oklahoma's statewide primary?

What is the latest of exit polling and TV Advertising between Shannon and Lankford ?

June 24 is our primary with runoff August 26.  I haven't seen any polling lately.

[badgate]

Could Lankford be rebounding?

[Maxwell]

Could Lankford be rebounding?

I don't think so. I would be super surprised if he were. The poll for the Lankford uptick was done at the same time as the first poll to show Shannon ahead. If Lankford manages to win, I would be shocked.

[RogueBeaver]

Local poll: 34/32 Lankford.

[RogueBeaver]

Citizens United endorses Shannon.

[RogueBeaver]

What do you think happens next month?

[TX Conservative Dem]

Shannon might not be able to overcome the huge advantages Lankford has.

Not even Kevin Durant can beat Lankford.

[Maxwell]

I'm not sure I believe a poll that has Shannon ahead with moderates, considering the way Shannon is jockeying.

[Simfan34]

Max,

I'm new to OK-1.  Do you know if there are any viable candidates running for Bridenstine's seat on either side of the aisle?  How do you like Bridenstine?

OK-1 is extremely Republican [even for Oklahoma], and Bridenstine isn't going face a credible challenger, to his right or to his left. The only reason Sullivan was held to relatively weak margins for a long time was because he had a relatively strong opponent and he's scandal ridden and rehab prone. Since Sullivan's been defeated, this district won't be competitive any time soon.

In fact, Bridenstine is running completely unopposed.

Bridenstine is one of the better House Republicans in mind - fairly anti-leadership, voted with the Amash defund the NSA bill. That being said, he's also kind of a fringe character, more in line with Ted Cruz than Rand Paul. You probably won't like him.

I'll have to give him time to prove himself to me.  I'm not going to pass judgment on someone I've only been under for 2 weeks.

Your failure to support Shannon is racist. The Senators endorsing Lankford are racist.

[Simfan34]

Regarding the recent poll, Shannon trails among Tea Partiers, conservatives, and religous voters.

Edit 1: Also, Poll results by congressional district. Shannon's winning in Tulsa and the SE, Lankford's winning in OKC and the NW.

Edit 2: If anyone cares enough, Lankford, Shannon, and Brogdon all do a Q&A on a Tulsa radio show.

Racists.

[RogueBeaver]

Whether Lankford or Shannon win outright depends on Brogdon et al + negative ads. Similar that way to NE.

[Never]

Regarding the recent poll, Shannon trails among Tea Partiers, conservatives, and religous voters.

Edit 1: Also, Poll results by congressional district. Shannon's winning in Tulsa and the SE, Lankford's winning in OKC and the NW.

Edit 2: If anyone cares enough, Lankford, Shannon, and Brogdon all do a Q&A on a Tulsa radio show.

Racists.

Um, Tulsa is definitely farther to the right than Oklahoma City. If the Republican primary voters of Oklahoma were in fact voting for Lankford and against Shannon because the former is white and the latter is black, it seems more likely that Shannon would be most competitive in Oklahoma City and not lead anywhere else in the state.

[Maxwell]

Regarding the recent poll, Shannon trails among Tea Partiers, conservatives, and religous voters.

Edit 1: Also, Poll results by congressional district. Shannon's winning in Tulsa and the SE, Lankford's winning in OKC and the NW.

Edit 2: If anyone cares enough, Lankford, Shannon, and Brogdon all do a Q&A on a Tulsa radio show.

Racists.

Um, Tulsa is definitely farther to the right than Oklahoma City. If the Republican primary voters of Oklahoma were in fact voting for Lankford and against Shannon because the former is white and the latter is black, it seems more likely that Shannon would be most competitive in Oklahoma City and not lead anywhere else in the state.

Simfan is obviously joking, but that's beside the point.

I think that's a fair point, but Oklahoma City is far more Republican than Tulsa, if that makes sense.

[Miles]

Least surprising endorsement in the world: Watts for Shannon.

[RogueBeaver]

ACU endorses Shannon.

[Maxwell]

Least surprising endorsement in the world: Watts for Shannon.

Not surprising but nevertheless helpful. Watts is still a popular name here, even though he hasn't been in congress for years.

[RogueBeaver]

$240k of outside anti-Lankford ads.