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Author Topic: Michigan  (Read 1818 times)
moderate_devil_dog
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« on: March 18, 2005, 11:49:41 am »
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It seems republicans are making ground here.  What candidate for the GOP could win the state?  Also what dem. candidate could easily take away the "swing" from Michigan?
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nick
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« Reply #1 on: March 18, 2005, 11:58:48 am »
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Pawlenty might be able to pull in Michigan.  Maybe Romney because his dad was a pretty popular governor in that state at one time.
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Cashcow
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« Reply #2 on: March 18, 2005, 05:48:53 pm »
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Well, a liberal or midwestern Republican would.

I wish Granholm could run. Sad
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Nym90
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« Reply #3 on: March 18, 2005, 07:40:39 pm »
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Well, a liberal or midwestern Republican would.

I wish Granholm could run. Sad

Ditto on Granholm.

I don't see any evidence that Michigan is trending Republican. Bush did a little better in 2004 than in 2000, but the swing toward him wasn't as much as the national swing.

In any event, Michigan is still a semi-swing state, but clearly leans Democratic. The Republicans would need a moderate to win it, for sure.
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Jake
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« Reply #4 on: March 18, 2005, 08:23:05 pm »
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Yet, Michigan was closer than Minnesota this year. 
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« Reply #5 on: March 18, 2005, 10:54:47 pm »
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Yet, Michigan was closer than Minnesota this year.

True, surprisingly enough, but I think that says more about the fact that Minnesota is not trending Republican as some claim, rather than evidence that Michigan is trending GOP.
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Jake
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« Reply #6 on: March 18, 2005, 11:10:49 pm »
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Yet, Michigan was closer than Minnesota this year.

True, surprisingly enough, but I think that says more about the fact that Minnesota is not trending Republican as some claim, rather than evidence that Michigan is trending GOP.

Hmm, I don't usually hold to trends at all.  A Bayh vs. Frist matchup in 2008 is going to be a big Bayh win regardless of trends.  In 20 years, who knows, the midwest could be more conservative, but then again any trend there now, could suddenly stop and reverse itself.
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12th Doctor
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« Reply #7 on: March 19, 2005, 01:42:50 am »
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Pawlenty might be able to pull in Michigan.  Maybe Romney because his dad was a pretty popular governor in that state at one time.

I agree with this.  Those were the two I was going to pick, before I saw your post.
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« Reply #8 on: March 19, 2005, 10:11:45 pm »
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Michigan weaves back and forth, at least on a Presidential level, electing Republicans a few times, and Democrats a few times.

20th Century:

Republican: 1900 to 1928 (counting TR in 1912), 1948 to 1956, 1972 to 1988
Democrat: 1932 to 1944, 1960 to 1968, 1992 to present
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« Reply #9 on: March 20, 2005, 10:22:29 am »
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Michigan was at the same point in relation to national average now as it was in 2000, roughly. And there's no real reason for it to trend conservative, so I'm gonna say it isn't.
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« Reply #10 on: March 21, 2005, 01:39:37 pm »
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could swing GOP.  Despite everyone calls us the "blue state", the only very "blue" area is Detroit.  If a GOP candidate campaigns in the suburbs of Detroit, and gets out the gun owner/hunter vote we very well could swing Republican.
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« Reply #11 on: April 06, 2005, 07:33:24 am »
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could swing GOP.  Despite everyone calls us the "blue state", the only very "blue" area is Detroit.  If a GOP candidate campaigns in the suburbs of Detroit, and gets out the gun owner/hunter vote we very well could swing Republican.
Except that getting out the full anti-gun control vote is not a good recipe for winning the inner suburbs. Just look at 2000 compared with the elections before and after. Bush did very badly in most suburban areas - including in the Detroit area - and Gore very badly in rural areas precisely because gun control played such a large role in the campaign. Unsurprisingly then, both sides rebounded somewhat in 2004.
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« Reply #12 on: April 06, 2005, 10:18:50 am »
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Bush's rebound in the Detroit suburbs last year was pretty impressive actually
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« Reply #13 on: April 06, 2005, 10:38:01 am »
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Pawlenty might be able to pull in Michigan.

Populists hate him because he's owned by the extremist Minnesota Taxpayers League. No.
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Lewis Trondheim
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« Reply #14 on: April 06, 2005, 12:36:00 pm »
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Bush's rebound in the Detroit suburbs last year was pretty impressive actually
Bush's rebound in Macomb County was not bad at all: 1.5 up in 2004 against 2.5 down in 2000.
Bush's rebound in Oakland County was totally insufficient for Republican satisfaction:
.5 down in 2004 against 1.2 down in 2000.
In Wayne County (the Western half of which is suburban) Bush was 39.6 down in 2004, 40.0 down in 2000.
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« Reply #15 on: April 06, 2005, 02:13:20 pm »
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Bush's rebound in Macomb County was not bad at all: 1.5 up in 2004 against 2.5 down in 2000.
Bush's rebound in Oakland County was totally insufficient for Republican satisfaction:
.5 down in 2004 against 1.2 down in 2000.
In Wayne County (the Western half of which is suburban) Bush was 39.6 down in 2004, 40.0 down in 2000.

The township results in Macomb were very interesting; only one flipped. GOP turnout in the middle suburbs beat Democratic turnout in the inner suburbs

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