Michigan

[minionofmidas]

could swing GOP.  Despite everyone calls us the "blue state", the only very "blue" area is Detroit.  If a GOP candidate campaigns in the suburbs of Detroit, and gets out the gun owner/hunter vote we very well could swing Republican.

Except that getting out the full anti-gun control vote is not a good recipe for winning the inner suburbs. Just look at 2000 compared with the elections before and after. Bush did very badly in most suburban areas - including in the Detroit area - and Gore very badly in rural areas precisely because gun control played such a large role in the campaign. Unsurprisingly then, both sides rebounded somewhat in 2004.

[minionofmidas]

Bush's rebound in the Detroit suburbs last year was pretty impressive actually

Bush's rebound in Macomb County was not bad at all: 1.5 up in 2004 against 2.5 down in 2000.
Bush's rebound in Oakland County was totally insufficient for Republican satisfaction:
.5 down in 2004 against 1.2 down in 2000.
In Wayne County (the Western half of which is suburban) Bush was 39.6 down in 2004, 40.0 down in 2000.