Siena: NY State voters oppose pot legalisation by a 13-point margin

[Tender Branson]

Looking beyond the issue of medical marijuana, two states - Colorado and Washington - have legalized and regulated marijuana for recreational use. Do you support or oppose passing a similar law in New York to legalize and regulate marijuana for recreational use?

41-54 oppose

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/SNY%20January%202014%20Poll%20Release%20--%20FINAL.pdf

http://www.siena.edu/uploadedfiles/home/parents_and_community/community_page/sri/SNY0114%20Crosstabs.pdf

[ElectionsGuy]

Really?

According to certain polls Louisiana approves of pot legalization yet New York doesn't.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Huh? The country's about 50/50. New York being more conservative than the country wouldn't make any sense.

[IceSpear]

Huh? The country's about 50/50. New York being more conservative than the country wouldn't make any sense.

Question wording and placement of the question has a major impact in policy polls.

[RedSLC]

Wow. I wasn't expecting this at all.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

What's so surprising that the state that led the way on the War on Drugs under Rockefeller would tend to be anti-drug?  If you're going to ban large sodas, why not ban recreational pot as well?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Huh? The country's about 50/50. New York being more conservative than the country wouldn't make any sense.

Well, pot legalization's really not a straight-up left-right issue these days.

[Lief 🗽]

What's so surprising that the state that led the way on the War on Drugs under Rockefeller would tend to be anti-drug?  If you're going to ban large sodas, why not ban recreational pot as well?

Because large sodas are unhealthy and marijuana is not? Not that complicated.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

What's so surprising that the state that led the way on the War on Drugs under Rockefeller would tend to be anti-drug?  If you're going to ban large sodas, why not ban recreational pot as well?

Because large sodas are unhealthy and marijuana is not? Not that complicated.

Lief, think about it like someone who has vague social-liberal instincts but not a doctrinaire, certainly not a 'high-information' social-liberal understanding of all issues. Marijuana's been on the books for decades now, it has more obvious effects on people's behavior than large sodas do, and it's the sort of thing that one would at first blush think would be unhealthy regardless of whether it actually is or not.

[Zioneer]

Seriously? This poll smells fishy; there's no way that New York is that conservative on the issue.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

How trustworthy is Siena?  I'm very skeptical of this poll.

[Kevin]

The poll does smell fishy

Then again in 2012 I was expecting Oregon to legalize Mary Jane and it the legalization initiative ended up being thumped at the ballot box(In OR of all places). So this poll could be on to something after all.

[Sol]

I could see a fairly significant opposition in the suburbs having an effect- It seems like those folks would be the sort of Democrat (or pubbie where applicable) who'd oppose legalization.

[Horus]

I could see a fairly significant opposition in the suburbs having an effect- It seems like those folks would be the sort of Democrat (or pubbie where applicable) who'd oppose legalization.

Correct, these types tend to be educated but also scream "think of the children!" whenever they believe their community is getting too "urban" or hip-hop.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I could see a fairly significant opposition in the suburbs having an effect- It seems like those folks would be the sort of Democrat (or pubbie where applicable) who'd oppose legalization.

Correct, these types tend to be educated but also scream "think of the children!" whenever they believe their community is getting too "urban" or hip-hop.

But it doesn't square with what these maps show:

[PJ]

The poll does smell fishy

Then again in 2012 I was expecting Oregon to legalize Mary Jane and it the legalization initiative ended up being thumped at the ballot box(In OR of all places). So this poll could be on to something after all.

It's just my personal opinion that has no validity whatsoever, but I know a lot of people who have changed their opinion of marijuana legalization since the initiative.

[morgieb]

This poll is interesting.

Siena might just be off, or they asked the question in a weird way. Alternatively, maybe New York could just be more wowser than the rest of the world.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

I could see a fairly significant opposition in the suburbs having an effect- It seems like those folks would be the sort of Democrat (or pubbie where applicable) who'd oppose legalization.

Correct, these types tend to be educated but also scream "think of the children!" whenever they believe their community is getting too "urban" or hip-hop.

But it doesn't square with what these maps show:

What do you mean?  There's still a bit of a rural/urban divide there.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Well yeah that's the point. Now this is New York we're talking about, it's pretty obvious who's going to win in a rural/urban divide there.

[Mordecai]

Huh? The country's about 50/50. New York being more conservative than the country wouldn't make any sense.

It's nanny-state authoritarianism more than conservatism.

[Sol]

I could definitely see Westchester County or Long Island being more conservative on this than suburban Denver. The NYC area has been much more substantially affected by white flight and is traditionally more racially polarized, which probably correlates well with opposing Marijuana legalization.

[traininthedistance]

I can't remember where exactly I read this, but I'm pretty sure that pot polls better among white people than it does among minorities, so I don't think this is necessarily just suburban panic (despite of course the fact that the effects of criminalizing weed fall heavier on those groups).  I'm sure there's a larger-than-you-think cohort of older blacks and Hispanics that mostly just still consider all drugs to be a scourge to be fought, and don't make the distinction between all-but-harmless weed and actually-harmful harder stuff.

[Sol]

I can't remember where exactly I read this, but I'm pretty sure that pot polls better among white people than it does among minorities, so I don't think this is necessarily just suburban panic (despite of course the fact that the effects of criminalizing weed fall heavier on those groups).  I'm sure there's a larger-than-you-think cohort of older blacks and Hispanics that mostly just still consider all drugs to be a scourge to be fought, and don't make the distinction between all-but-harmless weed and actually-harmful harder stuff.

That's probably also true- although I suspect younger generations to be quite for it.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'd bet anything that Westchester would vote in favor of legalization. No similar area in any state that has voted on it voted against.

I can't remember where exactly I read this, but I'm pretty sure that pot polls better among white people than it does among minorities, so I don't think this is necessarily just suburban panic (despite of course the fact that the effects of criminalizing weed fall heavier on those groups).  I'm sure there's a larger-than-you-think cohort of older blacks and Hispanics that mostly just still consider all drugs to be a scourge to be fought, and don't make the distinction between all-but-harmless weed and actually-harmful harder stuff.

Probably it.

[traininthedistance]

I'd bet anything that Westchester would vote in favor of legalization. No similar area in any state that has voted on it voted against.

I can't remember where exactly I read this, but I'm pretty sure that pot polls better among white people than it does among minorities, so I don't think this is necessarily just suburban panic (despite of course the fact that the effects of criminalizing weed fall heavier on those groups).  I'm sure there's a larger-than-you-think cohort of older blacks and Hispanics that mostly just still consider all drugs to be a scourge to be fought, and don't make the distinction between all-but-harmless weed and actually-harmful harder stuff.

Probably it.

Eh, if the crosstabs are right (a pretty big if of course) then my speculation is not quite correct, and the "scared suburbs" theory might have more credence.  Full legalization is underwater in all of city/burbs/upstate, but it's worst off in the burbs and better in the city and upstate.  As for race, whites and blacks are almost identical whereas Latinos are a few points more likely to oppose legalization. 

The expected correlation of younger people supporting it at much higher rates does, indeed, hold.