Colorado 2014 Megathread

[windjammer]

Gotta love those last few posts. Here's a less hackish, less dumb analysis:

-Secretary of State: Toss-Up/Tilt D. Gessler was a terrible SoS (Unless you're a complete GOP hack) who's only real interest was to help Republicans win elections. He's not running, but he may have damaged GOP credibility in the office. The candidates are University of Colorado Regent Joe Neguse (D), and El Paso County Clerk Wayne Williams (R). Former Senate Majority Leader Ken Gordon (D) was running and would've been the favorite, but died suddenly last December. I'd give the edge to Democrats, only because I expect Hickenlooper to win and I don't expect a lot of vote splitting when it comes to this office.

-Attorney General: Likely R. Another open seat (Incumbent John Suthers (R) is term-limited). The candidates are Deputy AG (And wife of Mike Coffman) Cynthia Coffman (R), House Minority Leader Mark Waller (R), and former 17th Judicial District DA Don Quick (D). Coffman and Waller are more high-profile and adept than Quick appears to be, and AG is an office that people often prefer Republicans for even in blue states. I'd give the edge to Coffman.

-Treasurer: Toss-Up/Tilt R. Incumbent Walker Stapleton (R) beat then-incumbent Cary Kennedy (D) by 1 point in 2010, but has had a relatively uneventful term as Treasurer since then. He faces two possibly strong opponents, former US Rep. Betsy Markey (D) and Mayor of Broomfield Patrick Quinn (D). I give Stapleton a slight edge due to his incumbency, but higher turnout due to mail-in ballots, a rapidly changing electorate, and a more favorable D environment might be enough to reverse the 2010 election.

Hmmm I don't know if these are very accurate.

First, let me disclose I work in CO politics, soooooo I have my biases, but I also understand the state better than you flatlanders, so let's go into it.

Governor: Solid D. The GOP's leading candidates in order of most likely to win the primary are: A. A racist who once suggested that we nuke Mecca, B. A birther who lost his last election by 16 percentage points in one of the biggest wallopings in CO history, C. The incumbent Secretary of State who is known for an ethics violation and trying to keep people of color from voting. I won't include Mike Kopp because if the guy had any chance he wouldn't be biking around rural CO right now. The only reason he made the ballot is because Tancredo ordered his delegates at the convention to vote for him to thwart Gessler. Do any of these really sound like dynamic candidates who can take out a reasonably popular moderate incumbent gov?

Senate: Leans (possibly Likely) D. Let me be clear, this year is not 2014. The GOP does not have the built in advantage they think that they do and Udall already knows the ways in which he can $hit on Gardner. Yes, Colorado has a libertarian streak. The misinformation about the gun laws has got everyone in a tiff and Obamacare scares rich, white people (who are very populous in the Centennial State). But, if you really think a personhood-supporting, gay hating, anti-immigrant congressman from Cowtown is going to win the rhetoric war against Mark Udall without outspending him 3 or 4 to 1 (which probs won't happen, but is possible), you're delusional.

Congress: Every incumbent is keeping their seat except for Coffman who is such a persona non-grata in the Latino community that no amount of image rehab could save him. He is a goner.

Treasurer: Likely R. Walker Stapleton has stayed above the fray and raised a boatload of money. I just don't tihnk Betsy Markey can win when he is so far ahead of her with cash and the Republicans do have a national advantage. Only extremely high turnout could save her.

SoS: Likely D. Wayne Williams is going to carry on Scott Gessler's legacy of disenfranchising voters because of thinly veiled racism. Joe has this in the bag. However, if the opposite of Markey's best case scenario comes to fruition and voter turnout it like 34%, Williams could pull of an upset.

AG: Tossup. This is going to probably be the closest statewide race. Don Quick is, arguably, the most impressive Democrat candidate on paper. He is Salazar's prodigy, worked on the Columbine case, prosecuted his fellow Ds in Adams County for corruption, and has picked up Republican endorsements. However, Cynthia Coffman has a Congressman for a husband and will likely end up with a significant cash advantage, even though she is much further behind now. If he is not heavily outspent, I think Quick could pull off a win. However, if Cynthia has a massive cash advantage or if turnout is very low, he's toast.

State Senate: Likely R. Republicans only need to win one seat to take it back. I would say, barring some sort of change in political winds, they are on the right track.

State House: Tossup/Leans D. Republicans will win some seats. But, they need to take eight in order to regain the majority and that is a tall order. Plus, tea-party candidates look poised to win in Jefferson County. They have done a horrible job recruiting this year, with two candidates already having resigned for racist scandals.

Furthermore, another note: Republicans are starting to campaign on fracking and that is really risky in CO. A fracking ban passed in relatively Republican Broomfield County with like 20 % voter turnout. Coloradans do love their money, but many move here for the environment/environmentalist reasons and a fracking ban on the ballot would A. make CO a focus point for Steyer, neutralizing a lot of GOP $$$, B. crank up youth turnout, and C. Polling shows that Coloradans are extremely skeptical of fracking and very pro-environment, this would put independents in a position where they have to pick between climate denier and a sane person. If I were them, I would stick to money and guns.

The CO republican party won 2 dem leaning seats last year, and these seats are up in 2014, with strong dem candidates. I wouldn't call the state senate race "likely rep".