Colombia presidential election 2014

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Here are results from the Registraduría.   They have a map, though you have to click on each department to see percentages.  In a very general sense, Zuluaga won the center of the country, while Santos took the periphery.  In Bogota Santos came in 3rd after Z and Lopez - I'm guessing the situation with the Mayor the past few months has a great deal to do with it.

turnout was 40%.

[Famous Mortimer]

I wonder if people still link Petro and Lopez. They were running mates last time but now they're different parties.

[Velasco]

I wonder if people still link Petro and Lopez. They were running mates last time but now they're different parties.

Clara López ran a good campaign and, surprisingly, Petro and Santos became friends at the end.  I lacked the time to follow the campaign closely (and nobody gives a f*** anyway). There have been some strange turns in past days. It looks that the campaign for the second round is going to be dirty. Zuluaga needs all the conservative vote (remember, the parliamentary fraction backs Santos, though that support is conditional), whereas Santos needs desperately that PDA and Green Alliance voters turn out to vote for him in order to save the peace process. Tricky.

I guess that video didn't slow down Zuluaga.

Indeed.

[Velasco]

Results by department.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Thanks for the maps Velasco!

Santos' best department last time was this time his worst.

[Velasco]

Santos' best department last time was this time his worst.

Yes, Casanare. Zuluaga performed better in those places where Uribe won by a landslide in 2002: Antioquia (Medellín), the coffee belt (Caldas, Risaralda and Quindío), central Colombia (Huila, Tolima, Boyacá, Cundinamarca) and Los Llanos/Orinoquia (Meta, Casanare and Arauca). Santos took the advantage in the Caribbean region (Uribe couldn't win in 2002), the Pacific coast (Chocó, Valle, Cauca and Nariño), Putumayo and three sparsely populated departments in the Amazonas region . Bogotá was like a no man's land, with a very splitted vote.

The most populated cities (above 500 k) voted as follows.

Bogotá: Zuluaga was ahead (22.1%), folowed by Clara López (20.4%), Santos (18.1%), Enrique Peñalosa (16%) and Martha Lucía Ramírez (14.9%). Turnout 48.3%

Medellín (Antioquía): Zuluaga 39.5%; Ramírez 19.5%, Clara López 16.5%, Santos 10.2% and Peñalosa 6.5%. Turnout 49.6%

Cali (Valle): Santos 27.4%, Ramírez 19.6%, Zuluaga 19%, Clara López 18.7%, Peñalosa 9.3%. Turnout 35.5%

Barranquilla (Atlántico): Santos 37.9%, Zuluaga 21.8%, Clara López 16.7%, Ramírez 9.8%, Peñalosa 8%. Turnout 22.6%

Cartagena de Indias (Bolívar): Zuluaga 30.1%, Santos 24.9%, Clara López 20.1%, Peñalosa 9.9%, Ramírez 8.8%. Turnout 22.2%

Cúcuta (Norte de Santander): Santos 28.4%, Zuluaga 26.9%, Ramírez 21.7%, Clara López 8.8%, Peñalosa 8.5%. Turnout 38.9%

Ibagué (Tolima): Zuluaga 37.1%, Santos 16.8%, Clara López 14.9%, Ramírez 13.4%, Peñalosa 11.3%. Turnout 48.5%

Bucaramanga (Santander): Santos 25.1%, Zuluaga 23.5%, Clara López 17.7%, Ramírez 17.6%, Peñalosa 9.7%. Turnout 44.5%

Soledad (Atlántico): Santos 45.1%, Zuluaga 18.4%, Clara López 17.6%, Ramírez 8.7%, Peñalosa 5.3%. Turnout 21.3%

Soacha (Cundinamarca): Zuluaga 24.5%, Clara López 21.1%, Ramírez 20.3%, Santos 19.7%, Peñalosa 7.6%. Turnout 49.8%

[Velasco]

I'll try to make a brief summary of the last moves, that is to say, who endorses who for the second round.

Conservative Party: The party is divided between Santos and Zuluaga. Martha Lucía Ramírez, who had a remarkable result on Sunday, the party's formal structure and 38 blue congressmen (according to La Silla Vacía) will endorse Zuluaga. On the other hand, a sizeable number of conservative congressmen (30 or 40, depending on sources) signed a document in support of Santos. Senators Roberto Gerlein and Efraín Cepeda, among others, back Santos; Ramírez and congressmen Myriam Paredes, Samy Merheg, among others, endorse Zuluaga.

The most remarkable thing in the deal signed between Zuluaga and Ramírez is that CD candidate's stance on the Havana peace talks has been moderated as a result. At first Zuluaga (expressing Uribe's opinion, of course) promised that he would suspend the peace talks with the FARC in 8 days, which it is the time that he would grant to the FARC in order that they were decreeing an unilateral, immediate, permanent and verifiable ceasefire as the only condition to continue talking. This is in practice very difficult to do for various reasons and it's almost impossible that guerrilla accept these conditions, so likely conversations would stop with almost complete certainty.

Those requirements have been removed from the document sealed between Zuluaga and Ramírez, which establishes 7 conditions: end of minor's recruitment (Ramírez insisted on that during the campaign); stop placing land mines and handing minefield maps to the government (the FARC has promised that in current talks); stop attempts against civilians; end of war crimes; end of kidnappings (promised already in the beginning); end of extortion; cease of narco-trafficking related actions (the last point agreed with Santos). There's no mention to the ineligibility of FARC members, one of the main uribista demands. Zuluaga and Ramírez reiterated that they want "peace without impunity" instead. Impunity is not considered by current negotiators, in any case reduced or symbolic prison sentences.

Alternative Democratic Pole/ Patriotic Union: The left was divided between those who wanted to endorse Santos to keep alive the peace process and those who advocated for abstention or blank vote due to irreconcilable ideological differences. Amongst the main opponents to endorse Santos was senator Jorge Robledo, one of the most vocal opposition members in parliament. "We give peace a great importance, but this is not the only analysis factor and cannot be a groundbait to trap the others, leaving aside other realities of the country", stated PDA senator. On the other hand UP leader Aída Avella and senator-elect Iván Cepeda were the most vocal supporters of endorsing Santos, although they made clear that peace is the only point in which there's a coincidence with the president in office. Both are more committed with human rights and related questions, whereas Robledo is more focused on socioeconomic issues. Finally the PDA executive committee, led by Clara López, adopted a compromise solution. The party will give free vote to its membership and supporters but states that it's strongly in favour of peace process.

Green Alliance/ Progressives: The Green Party issued a communication inviting its sympathizers to vote for whoever they want, but keeping in mind the principles defended by the party. The official stance points that fighting corruption and 'mermelada' (marmalade, pork) is as important as peace talks in Havana, which the Greens support, and states an special commitment to "peasantry welfare", urban reform and rejection to "indiscriminate mining" which destroys environment. This reflects the opinion of Peñalosa. Senators Claudia López and Navarro Wolff, John Sudarsky, Camilo Romero and representative Ángela Robledo will endorse Santos against Zuluaga, as well former mayor and Green candidate Antanas Mockus.

Gustavo Petro surprised everybody announcing his support for Santos 10 days before the election. Few days before the Bogotá mayor accused the president of "liar" and "perpetrating a coup d'état", when Santos confirmed his removal. Vicepresidential candidate Vargas Lleras was accused of being "the political boss of a contractor's cartel". Two weeks prior the election the Progressives signed a deal with the Liberal Party which was including the Petro's movement support to the peace talks and that Santos would apply nationwide some petrista proposals for Bogotá (free access to water for the poorer, preventive health scheme and extended school day) if reelected. Some liberals such as Horacio Serpa have been supportive of Petro's Bogotá Humana. Apparently, he first approach between Petro and Santos occurred when Santos picked Mercedes Maldonado, a progressive and petrista councilor, as designated mayor. Petro returned to his office the following day and met with Santos a week later in which is described as a "kind encounter" . Finally Petro "chose between Zuluaga's war and Santos' peace, knowing that there is no Peñalosa worthy of, so he's going to give such endorsement (to Santos) even if he's left alone".  

If I have time and someone is interested, I'll write later what some analysis on the election results say.

[Famous Mortimer]

Petro endorsed Santos in the first round?

What does his comment about Peñalosa mean? It didn't translate too well. Does he mean he's endorsing Santos in the second round because Peñalosa isn't an option (suggesting Peñalosa was his first choice) or does he mean he's endorsing Santos because Peñalosa and the Greens won't?

I assume Peñalosa himself is staying neutral to spite Petro?

Is the Green Alliance pretty much dead now? Now it's back to just the Green Party and the Progressive Movement individually?

[Velasco]

Petro endorsed Santos in the first round?

What does his comment about Peñalosa mean? It didn't translate too well. Does he mean he's endorsing Santos in the second round because Peñalosa isn't an option (suggesting Peñalosa was his first choice) or does he mean he's endorsing Santos because Peñalosa and the Greens won't?

I assume Peñalosa himself is staying neutral to spite Petro?

Is the Green Alliance pretty much dead now? Now it's back to just the Green Party and the Progressive Movement individually?

The original version is "no hay Peñalosa que valga". My translation attempt of the sentence wasn't good but you got it, he comes to say that Peñalosa wasn't an option because the choice was between peace (Santos) and war (Zuluaga). Peñalosa was never Petro's first choice, the mayor took distance from the Green Alliance candidacy since the beginning, even stating that he has no party in this moment. Other progressives, namely Antonio Navarro Wolff, stated that they voted for Peñalosa in the first round and are going to endorse Santos on June 15. On the other hand, even members of the former Green Party linked with Mockus (John Sudarsky or Ángela Robledo) were reluctant to endorse Peñalosa.

Petro endorsed Santos days before the first round, so his decision is not related with the Green Alliance's official stance issued after the election. Peñalosa, who is always rather enigmatic, said that he abstains himself of making advises because likely most of his party would ignore him. Obviously, there's a personal rivalry between Petro and Peñalosa since the 2011 mayoral election, but it's impossible to know why Peñalosa remains neutral. Even people who has proximity to him -Claudia López, for example- say that most of the times they ignore what he's thinking. I think he doesn't look like a spiteful person, but I know too little about him and he's quite hermetic. My impression is that resentment is a trait that doesn't fit with what I perceive of his personality. I might be wrong.

I guess I'll have to check the steps prior to Petro's endorsement of Santos, which occurred in a moment when I couldn't pay much attention. The Petro affair is too complicated and has had too many turns. Petrosantismo made waves, although it didn't help Santos in Bogotá. On the other hand, the left seems to have recovered its former strength in the capital (20%)while CD is the city's first minority (Uribe got 24% in the legislative election and Zuluaga 22%). Apparently a Peace Front is going to be launched in support of Santos' 'crusade'. The president has to fight an uphill battle and Bogotá is one of the main battlefields.

I'll post a map of the First Round by municipality tonight or tomorrow.

[Velasco]

Here it is. Results by municipality.



Bonus track: Colombians abroad.



Questions welcomed.

[Velasco]

Four more years.

Santos 50,91%

Zuluaga 45,03%

http://www.registraduria.gov.co/99PR2/DPR9999999_L1.htm

[RodPresident]

Peace won.
But Zuluaga almost-victory can make Santos to get better terms in peace negotiations.

[Tender Branson]

100% counted:

Santos 53.1%
Zuluaga 46.9%

...

Good result.

[Velasco]

Peace won.
But Zuluaga almost-victory can make Santos to get better terms in peace negotiations.

The first round result put pressure on the government and the FARC and had consequences. On Saturday 7, the FARC made a step forwards and signed a joint communique with the government that says: " Any discussion of this point must depart from the recognition of responsibility opposite to the victims of the conflict. We are not going to interchange impunities". The point is the reparation to the victims of the conflict and the fact that the guerrilla has signed this text means a recognition of the enormous responsibility acquired by the FARC in the human suffering caused by 50 years of war, something that the guerrilla leadership ('Timochenko' and others) had refused to admit in the past 18 months of peace talks.

Furthermore, on Tuesday the government announced the beginning of "exploratory" talks with the ELN:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/06/11/inenglish/1402515063_413896.html

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Apparently, there's nothing like fear to put things forward. Zuluaga won the First Round as an expression of a fear of the society to excessive concessions granted by the government to the FARC in exchange for nothing. Besides, a deep dissatisfaction caused by other unsolved issues (poverty, inequality, insecurity, education, corruption, etc) boosted abstention, which was 60% of the electorate on May 25.

The fear on the return to power of the Uribe's supporters, which might suppose the perpetuation of the conflict, has mobilized enough centre-left opposition voters to allow Santos a second term, with a clear mandate: making peace to put an end to 50 years of violence, removing one of the main obstacles to the country's modernisation. Also, the National Unity political machine and the associated clientelistic networks worked this time in the Caribbean region and other places, adding thousand of votes to the Santos' column.

On the other hand, the FARC and the ELN are not the only agents of violence. Álvaro Uribe owes many explanations for the failed demobilization of the AUC and the other paramilitary groups, to which he made enormous concessions while their activity never ceased completely. In many cases, the paramilitary groups have evolved into the new Bacrim (criminal gangs) which control drug trafficking and the illegal mining industry, sometimes in interaction with the guerrilla, causing terror in the regions that fall under their influence. An example of this is the crime epidemic (murders, tortures and population displacements) that haunts the city of Buenaventura, the main exporting port of Colombia in the Pacific Ocean.

[Velasco]

Santos/Zuluaga margins by department.



Bogotá and the Caribbean Region were decisive for Santos' victory. The president won by comfortable margins in the departments on the Pacific Coast, whereas Zuluaga remained strong in the Andean Region, Los Llanos Orientales and the SE.

Bogotá: Santos won by a 10% margin over Zuluaga (52.5%/42.2%), making up his third place in the First Round. Clara López, the PDA candidate who came second on May 25, Gustavo Petro, most of the Green Alliance leaders, the Liberal Party, the UP and the Patriotic March and the trade unions campaigned actively for the reelection. Santos added 900k votes to his column, whereas Zuluaga won 450k additional votes.

With an eye on the next mayoral election, two strong contenders might appear: Clara López (PDA) in the left and Vicepresident Pacho Santos (CD) in the right. Given the strength of Uribe's supporters in the capital, Pacho Santos might be the next mayor unless the National Unity and the left endorse a single candidate. As for the country as a whole, some people point to a realignment in Colombian politics, which might be polarised between a National Unity extended to the left, in the style of the Chilean Concertación, and a strong right-wing opposition grouped around the charismatic caudillo Álvaro Uribe.

Caribbean: The National Unity machinery worked at full throttle, adding almost 1 million of votes to the Santos' column. In the First Round Santos was reluctant to appear in public with some controversial congressmen and regional caciques. In the Second Round Santos campaigned with all of them and they were given resources to bribe their respective clienteles. In Atlántico department (Barranquilla) Santos grew from 194k to 541k, winning by an overwhelming 58% margin (78.2%/20.1%). Santos was endorsed by congressmen from the Conservatives (Roberto Gerlein, Efraín Cepeda, Laureano Acuña), the U, the Liberals and the Radical Change Party (Char family). In the Córdoba department Santos won by a 28.7% margin with the support of the U congressmen Musa Besaile and Ñoño Elías. In Sucre the very controversial Yahir Acuña (100% Colombia) was the most active campaigning for Santos, who won there by 21.8%. The machinery also worked in Bolívar, Magdalena, César and La Guajira.

Pacific Coast: In the Cauca Valley (Cali) Santos grew from 313k to 827k, winning by 27.3%. The president won in the southern and central sections of the department around Cali. Zuluaga, who was endorsed by the local Conservatives, won in the northern section. Santos' strongest performance was in the Cauca department (Popayán), where he got 71.25% of the vote against Zuluaga's 25%. Nariño (Pasto) and Putumayo in the SW and Chocó in the NW were comfortable victories for Santos.

Andean Region: Antioquía (Medellín) is Uribe's land and it was a stronghold for the CD in the legislative elections. Zuluaga won by a 22% margin (35.8%/57.8%), but Santos (who placed 3rd in the 1st Round) grew from 290K to 700k votes thanks to the mobilisation effort made by the Liberal César Gaviria. In the coffee producing departments, Zuluaga did better in his homeplace of Caldas (Manizales) winning by 27.4%. The CD candidate won Cundinamarca (around Bogotá) by 12.8% and Boyacá (Tunja) by 16.4%, in both Zuluaga won in the First Round and Marta Lucía Ramírez performed strongly. Tolima (Ibagué) was for Zuluaga by a wide 22.4% margin and Huila (Neiva) was a landslide (26%/70.8%).

Los Llanos and SE: The Caquetá (SE) and Meta departments gave a strong support for Zuluaga, who won in both by 31%. Casanare, an oil producing department in Los Llanos, recorded Zuluaga's strongest nationwide performance (18.4%/77.7%). Santos achieved a narrow victory in the neighbouring Arauca (49.5%/47.5%), in the Venezuelan border.

Santanderes: In the Santander (Bucaramanga) department Santos won by a 10% margin, growing from 176k to 429k votes between the two rounds. The powerful Aguilar clan and the Civic Option were divided, with governor Richard Aguilar favouring Santos and Civic Option congressmen Mauricio Aguilar and Doris Vega endorsing Zuluaga. Santos won by a huge margin in the city of Barrancabermeja, where Clara López came first in the 1st Round. In Norte de Santander (Cúcuta) Santos won by 4%, coming ahead in the capital and the northern section of the department which includes El Catatumbo (around 90% in some municipalities), a rural region where the left is strong. Zuluaga won in the southern municipalities.

[Velasco]