Colombia presidential election 2014

[Velasco]

Provisional results:

http://www.registraduria.gov.co/99SE/DSE9999999_L2.htm

Senate:

Party of the U:  21 seats (15.6%)

Democratic Centre: 19 seats (14.3%)

Conservative: 19 seats (13.6%)

Liberal: 17 seats (12.2%)

Radical Change: 9 seats (7%)

Green Alliance: 5 seats (3.9%)

Alternative Democratic Pole: 5 seats (3.8%)

Citizen's Option: 5 seats (3.7%)

MIRA: 0 seats (2.3%)

Indigenous seats:

MAIS 1 seat (0.32%)

ASI 1 seat (0.23%)

Älvaro Uribe, proclaimed the great winner of the election. The National Unity Coalition fails to get a majority (47 of 102 seats), Conservatives and minority parties hold the balance of the chamber. The Democratic Centre wins in Bogotá,  Antioquía (Medellín), Central Colombia (Cundinamarca, Huila, Tolima) and some departments in the Coffee Belt, Los Llanos (Arauca, Casanare) and Amazonas regions. Party of the U wins in most of the Caribbean region, Cauca Valley, Chocó and Meta (Maritza Martínez). The Conservative Party takes the lead in Atlántico (Roberto Gerlein), Nariño (Myriam Paredes), Norte de Santander and Boyacá. Liberals win Santander (Horacio Serpa), Cauca, Putumayo and San Andrés y Providencia. Citizen's Option wins Sucre and comes second in Santander (Nerthink Mauricio Aguilar gets more personal vote than Horacio Serpa). The MIRA movement is taking the lead in the vote abroad, followed by the Democratic Centre, but fails to reach the 3% threshold.

Top candidates: Party of the U (Musa Fayad), Democratic Centre (Closed List), Conservatives (Roberto Gerlein), Liberal Party (Horacio Serpa), Radical Change (Arturo Char), Green Alliance (Claudia López gets more votes than Navarro Wolff), PDA (Jorge Robledo), Citizen's Option (Nerthink Mauricio Aguilar).

Chamber of Representatives:

Liberal Party: 39 seats (14.1%)

Party of the U: 37 seats (16.1%)

Conservative Party: 27 seats (13.2%)

Radical Change Party: 17 seats (7.7%)

Democratic Centre: 12 seats (9.5%)

Green Alliance: 6 seats (3.4%)

Citizen's Option: 6 seats (3.3%)

Alternative Democratic Pole: 3 seats (2.9%)

MIRA Movement: 3 seats (2.9%)

Others: 4 seats (indigenous parties win 2 seats and two provincial lists get other 2)

Afro-Colombian seats: FUNECO wins the 2 seats.

Indigenous seat: AICO gets the seat, plus other won in La Guajira department.

The National Unitiy Coalition holds a majority in the Chamber. The MIRA movement wins 3 seats but, failing to reach 3% in the senatorial election, the elected representatives will have the status of 'political minority'. Yahir Acuña's 100% Colombia wins in Sucre with 126,000 votes, but the official site doesn't give seats for this party (and I don't know why). The Patriotic Union (UP) gets 0.7% nationwide.

Turnout 43.6%.

[Famous Mortimer]

Looks like a stronger than expected performance by the Conservative Party is the main reason for Santos losing his majority.

Not much of a victory for Uribe, especially since his party didn't come in first place.

[Famous Mortimer]

Enrique Peñalosa is now officially the Green Alliance candidate.

[Velasco]

Not much of a victory for Uribe, especially since his party didn't come in first place.

Uribe was ahead of the U in the first stages of the count, but finally the U took the lead as the vote in the regions was counted. Santos said he was happy, because the election was "the quieter and the safer" in recent times and his party retained the first place "against all predictions". The president congratulated the Democratic Centre for its "decent" second place and said: "Senator Uribe, I hope we can leave all hate aside".

It looks like a relative victory, both for Santos and Uribe. The National Unity loses the majority in the Senate, but it seems a majority of the Conservative congressmen support Santos' reelection, at least by the moment. Also, Santos can maneuver in the Senate with the other groups and has a comfortable majority in the Chamber of Representatives. On the other hand, the result of the Uribe party sets a (relatively) strong opposition in the Senate, whereas the Democratic Centre is somewhat marginal in the Chamber of Representatives. This is a change with regard to the previous Congress, when groups backing Santos had more than 80% of the seats. Anyway, it doesn't look like the legislative election is going to change anything in the presidential race, with Santos clearly ahead and Zuluaga, Ramírez and Peñalosa struggling for the second place in order to have a chance to fight a hopeless runoff against the president.

As for the Colombian left and progressives, the result is quite bad. The PDA lost 3 senators and only got 540,000 votes. Jorge Robledo's personal vote was 191,000, still one of the highest results for a single senator nationwide, but in the party they were hoping around 300,000. The PDA also lost a representative with a rather poor result. The Green Alliance retained the same 5 senators that the Green Party won in 2010, but Jorge Londoño (a former governor of Boyacá) lost his seat. Also, the son of Piedad Córdoba and other liberal candidates close to the left weren't elected. The UP result was predictable.

Aside the typical inconveniences (clientelistic machines, fraud, menaces, etc) that prevent the groups in the left competing in equality of conditions in many regions, it's clear that internal divisions -and perhaps the lack of a solid project- harm them. The Green Alliance looks like a madhouse Perhaps they should consider the union of everything between the centre-leaning Greens and the left-wing parties in order to build an alternative to the Santos/Uribe duopoly, although it has to be difficult to deal with the right faction of the Greens that Peñalosa represents. On the other hand, it's obvious that Colombia is a country leaning to centre-right, so it's unlikely that a PDA-like party has a chance of winning a presidential election in the foreseeable future. The only good news for me is that Claudia López (Green Alliance) and Iván Cepeda (PDA) won a place in the Senate.

Green Alliance Primary (63% of the booths reported ):

Enrique Peñalosa 48.1%; Camilo Romero 16.6%; John Sudarsky 8.5%

Likely more than 3 million of voters took part in the Green contest, with Peñalosa getting 1.4 million by the moment. The primaries were open and it's presumable that some centre-right voters backed the winner. Peñalosa thinks the yesterday's outcome won't hurt his chances to run against Santos, because the presidential election is the one where the political machinery has a less important role. He assures elected senators Navarro Wolff and Claudia López are not against him (relationship is cool). "What Colombians need it's not a question of left or right. The great discussion is if we want a government were people still come for political recommendation", he stated.

[Velasco]

Elections for the Andean Parliament, a legislature whose character is only consultative and is elected in the  member countries of the Andean Community -currently Bolivia, Ecuador, Perú and Colombia-, were held on Sunday in coincidence with the legislative election. Results were as follows (percentages on votes cast*):

Conservative Party 9.3%; Green Alliance 8%; PDA 7.1%; Citizen's Option 3%; UP 2.5%; 100% Colombia 1.4%; Blank Ballots 35.6%; Not Marked Ballots 28%; Null Ballots 5%. Turnout 31%.

More than 50% of the valid votes were blank ballots and, according to National Registrar Carlos Ariel López, the National Electoral Council may rule a new election must be called.  Later, the Constitutional Court will have to make a pronouncement on the question. The Andean Parliament is considered an useless and inefficient institution and, apparently, the governments of the member countries decided its suppression months ago.

*Vote percentages of the legislative elections (Senate and Chamber) in the official website are calculated on votes cast as well. "Abnormal" levels of not marked and null ballots may be symptoms of electoral fraud. According to MOE, low figures in null votes may indicate coercion and high figures a manipulation oriented to lower the vote for certain candidates. The high level in not marked ballots may be consequence of the bad design of the ballots or product of manipulation. Risk areas include the SW and the Pacific Coast; most of Sucre and parts of the departments of the Caribbean region; and NE areas next to the Venezuela border (La Guajira, Arauca and Catatumbo). This time the perceived risk of fraud was more associated with economic interests and corruption, whereas risk associated with violence and 'illegal actors' influence is diminishing.

Nationwide figures of blank vote, not marked and null ballots in the legislative elections:

Senate: Blank**5.2%; Not Marked 5.9%; Null 10.4%.

Chamber of Representatives: Blank** 5.8%; Not Marked 3.4%;  Null 12.3%.

**Excluding special constituencies.

[Famous Mortimer]

Temporarily changed the title so that maybe we will get some more views/discussion.

[Velasco]

The Green Alliance primaries have been a success. The number of voters can exceed 4 million, in sharp contrast with the result of the Green Alliance in the legislative election (564,000 votes, with the provisional count halted at 98.4%). Peñalosa supporters estimate the former mayor of Bogotá got more than 2 million of votes, a figure comparable to the support for Uribe's list in the senatorial election.

Provisional results (79.7% reported):

Enrique Peñalosa 47.7% (1.743 million of votes)

Camilo Romero 16.76% (613,000 votes)

John Sudarsky 8.53% (312,000 votes)

Votes cast: 3,653,774

http://www.registraduria.gov.co/iniconsulta2014.htm

The paradox is that Enrique Peñalosa, who is not loved by most of his party and whose campaign had little impact in the media, achieved an extraordinary result, exceeding by far the voting Antanas Mockus (the 'Green Wave') and his own record in the 2010 Green Primary. The conclusion of Juanita Ortega, edtor of La Silla Vacía, is that Peñalosa was the great victor of the election.

It is clear that many of the voters who supported Peñalosa are not strict supporters of the Green Alliance; the question, says El Espectador, is who are these voters and what was moving them. John Sudarsky, who will not back Peñalosa, is round stating that Peñalosa didn't win with the votes of the Green Alliance and  "he's going to seek the alliance with Uribe because Uribe chose him". However, a quick analysis of the provisional results shows that Peñalosa had a strong performance in places where Uribe was weak (Peñalosa doubled Uribe's voting in the Caribbean region), whereas he didn't had a great result in Uribe's strongholds (Uribe's voting doubled Peñalosa's in Antioquia), according to La Silla Vacía. So the conclusion is that not all uribistas backed Peñalosa and not all of Peñalosa's supporters are uribistas. Senator elect Claudia López will back the winner of the contest, although she's not presumably enthusiastic with her former political mentor -López grew appart when Peñalosa decided to run for the Liberals-, stating that Peñalosa's victory was legitimate and cannot be questioned when the candidate's voting was four times the Green Alliance's in the Senate. "The only who can defeat the candidates of uribismo is Peñalosa", she concludes.

If polls say that Peñalosa beats Zuluaga (Sudarsky thinks that Uribe wants to get rid of him) and Ramírez, it's possible that voters in the right will go behind him. Although Peñalosa stated that he will back peace talks in La Habana as they stand now, the candidate is perceived as a strong man with little proclivity to yield to pressure. Also, he might attract those centrist voters who dislike Santos because of clientelism and a perceived bad management. In that case, I wonder what will do the progressive voters of the Green Alliance (backing the lesser evil?, abstention?).

Temporarily changed the title so that maybe we will get some more views/discussion.

It's OK for me. If I have time, I'll post what media and analysts say about other issues of this election. I suspect there will be a delay with the final results of the legislative election, perhaps a couple of weeks. The Democratic Centre might win an additional seat and several seats in the Chamber of Representatives are not allocated.

This infographics in Semana has some changes with regard to the allocation of the seats in the Chamber of Representatives given in the official website on election night. 100% Colombia, a party led by Yahir Acuña, would get 3 seats: 2 in Sucre and 1 in Casanare. The party didn't run for the Senate and only got 1.1% nationwide, contesting only a few departments. Despite Acuña's party didn't reach 3% in the Chamber, 100% Colombia might join Fundación Ébano (FUNECO), which won the 2 seats in the Afro-Colombian special constituency, in order to have party legal status. Acuña might lead a 5-seat block.

[Famous Mortimer]

The Patriotic Union candidate has dropped out to become the VP candidate of the Alternative Democratic Pole.

[Velasco]

Leading party by department in the congressional elections.



The world map represents vote abroad. Vote percentages calculated on valid votes, excluding null and not marked ballots, according to the provisional results. For seat allocation see the infographics in a previous post. Not included Afro-Colombian and Indigenous special constituencies.

Nationwide valid vote percentages would be as follows:

Senate: Party of the U 19.11%; Democratic Centre 17.52%; Conservative Party 16.66%; Liberal Party 14.98%;  Radical Change 8.54%; Green Alliance 4.84%; Alternative Democratic Pole 4.64%; Citizen's Option 4.52%; MIRA 2.8%; Blank Votes 6.4%.

Chamber: Party of the U 19.61%; Liberal Party 17.26%; Conservative Party 16.09%; Democratic Centre 11.57%; Radical Change 9.46%; Green Alliance 4.09%; Citizen's Option 3.99%; Alternative Democratic Pole 3.54%; MIRA 3.51%; 100% Colombia 1.35%; Patriotic Union 0.85%; Blank Votes 7.04%.

[Velasco]

The Patriotic Union candidate has dropped out to become the VP candidate of the Alternative Democratic Pole.

There was a debate inside the Pole between the supporters of Aída Abella as vicepresidential candidate and others whom backed Rodolfo Arango, an academic and former judge of the Constitutional Court who got the PDA's sixth highest voting to the Senate (and wasn't elected, because the Pole only got 5). Supporters of a negotiation with the UP included senator elect Iván Cepeda, among others; supporters of placing Arango included senator Jorge Robledo and Carlos Gaviria. The voting in the PDA's Executive Direction was Abella 12, Arango 8.

This PDA-UP presidential candidacy has no real chances to get the 2nd Round and apparently reflects a bet for a medium term strategy of unity in the left (of which this alliance would be a first step), instead of seeking a viable presidential formula in the short term.

[Velasco]

Datexco poll released in El Tiempo (3/16):

http://www.eltiempo.com/Multimedia/infografia/encuestapresidencial/

Juan Manuel Santos (U) 25.5%; Enrique Peñalosa (Green) 17.1%; Óscar Iván Zuluaga (CD) 14.6%; Clara López Obregón (PDA) 10.7%; Marta Lucía Ramírez (C) 7.7%

Second Round matches: Santos 44.4/ Ramírez 33.7; Santos 45.7/ Zuluaga 28.3; Peñalosa 40.4/ Santos 37.1; Santos 43/ López 32.1

I'd be cautious with the polls, given the precedents of 2010 presidential and 2014 legislative elections. However, it looks like Enrique Peñalosa is well positioned to fight the runoff against Santos. Will his momentum last?

Enrique Peñalosa has nominated Isabel Segovia, a qualified independent professional and a complete unknown in the politics' world, as running mate. Segovia (aged 40) has been teacher, educational consultant and viceminister of Education in Uribe's administration. Despite having been a public servant with Uribe, apparently she's not a supporter of the former president but people in the progressive faction in the Green Alliance is somewhat reticent with Peñalosa's choice. There were rumours on former senator Camilo Romero, who placed a distant second in the GA Primary, as vicepresidential candidate. Peñalosa wanted a woman with no links with the Bogotá elite as running mate, to counter the profile of the partners of the National Unity ticket. Both Santos and Vargas Lleras are cachacos and members of the Bogotá upper-class, whereas Isabel Segovia's family is from Cartagena de Indias (a good family as well). Peñalosa's choice reinforces the independent, management-focused and 'antipolitical' traits of his candidacy.

[Velasco]

President Santos confirmed on Wednesday the removal of the mayor of Bogotá, Gustavo Petro, disregarding the precautionary measures recommended by the Inter-American Commision of Human Rights (IACHR).

"I have received official communication by the General Attorney of the Nation requesting me to decree the dismissal of the Mayor of Bogota, Gustavo Petro Urrego, and I must come from conformity with the Constitution and the laws ", said Santos in an address to the country. The reason given by the president to reject IACHR recommendations is that Colombian Justice acted in a "transparent, effective and opportune way".

This decision gives again the Petro affair a protagonic role in the campaign. The popularity of the removed mayor of Bogotá raised temporarily after what was perceived as an "arbitrary" and "disproportionate" action by the General Attorney, Alejandro Ordóñez. Nevertheless that effect was going flat as time passed and had no effect in the outcome of the legislative elections in the Colombian capital, where uribismo and supporters of the dismissal won widely.

In Santos' coalition they are a majority those who were in opposition to Petro, including the Party of the U and Cambio Radical, whereas Horacio Serpa and others in the Liberal Party opposed the recall. In Santos' decision would have weighed the fear of being attacked by nationalistic sectors which think Petro has had chances to defend himself and respecting the IACHR recommendations would suppose, in words of former Vice-President Pacho Santos, sending "a message of which Colombian Justice is not of use, devastates institutionality and would be a collapse of the judicial system". However, backing Petro's removal means that a new mayoral election must be called and uribistas -whose candidate is precisely Pacho Santos- have many chances of winning. Furthermore, Santos may lose the support of voters in the left -far from being enthusiastic, but supporters of the peace talks- if he has to fight a runoff.

Green Alliance candidate, Enrique Peñalosa, a major critic of Petro's management in Bogotá, stated that it's not democratic that a leader like Petro is deprived of his political rights, without being involved in corruption and without a verdict of guilty.

[Velasco]

Interactive maps with the results of the congressional elections at departmental and municipal levels:

http://lasillavacia.com/content/asi-votaron-los-municipios-y-los-departamentos-al-congreso-46934

The author, Javier Moreno, runs a blog where you can find more interesting maps. For example this one:

http://finiterank.github.io/informe-electoral/diversidad-politica.html

Recent polls show that little has changed in the presidential race after the legislative elections, downgrading the euphoria around Peñalosa.

Gallup: Santos (U) 32.5%; Zuluaga (CD) 15.6%; Peñalosa (Green) 11.3%; Ramírez (Con) 9.3%; López (PDA) 8.6%.

http://es.scribd.com/doc/213765983/Cuarta-Encuesta-Presidencial-Campan%CC%83a-2014-Gallup

Ipsos: Santos 24%; Zuluaga 9%; López 9%; Peñalosa 8%; Ramírez 4%.

Forgot to mention that Labour minister and former liberal candidate Rafael Pardo was appointed temporarily as mayor of Bogotá. Progressives Movement can propose a short list to the president in order that Santos pick one to be the substitute mayor until the next election.

[Velasco]

This is the official ballot of the presidential election, with the five official tickets and a box for the blank vote (similar to the NOTA option):

I've found via Facebook that the Green Alliance and Claudia López, who has became the political and programmatical coordinator of Peñalosa's campaign, are resorting to populism against Santos using the 'Bolivarian' scarecrow: "Danger. Santos, in the worst Venezuelan style, wants to turn Colombia into a banana republic ("republiqueta" in the original version)".

I expected something more 'edgy' from the rising star of the Green Alliance, a woman who collected what Colombians call "opinion vote", that is to say, the support of well-informed and concerned voters -mostly urban- not influenced by patronage and political machines.

In the best "divide and rule" tradition, Santos has collected the support from some personalities of the old Green Party like Lucho Garzón and Alfonso Prada -a former Green congressman who advises Santos' campaign-. As well the president stated that he met with local elected officials and representatives of women, Afro-Colombians and other social statements: what he calls "the real Green Party".

The 2010 election witnessed a dirty campaign focused on a supposed connivance between the Green candidate Antanas Mockus and the deceased Hugo Chávez, which I'd say it rendered Santos a good profit. There were some offensive affiches, of which Santos' campaign denied the authorship, with Mockus showing some part of his anatomy to the Comandante. I prefer posting this one as example:

Chávez says the house of cards of the Bolivarian revolution has fallen, but he has a Joker (Mockus) in the hole. In the following sketch, Chávez is looking for a "Colombian ball" to play baseball (that means continuing his "tyrant game"). In the last cartoon Mockus says to the Comandante "you know that I don't believe in God" and Hugo replies: "How clever, chamo!"

[Velasco]

Here, an interesting blog article in The Guardian website on the Petro affair:

http://www.theguardian.com/global-development/poverty-matters/2014/apr/09/colombia-democracy-ousting-bogota-mayor-gustavo-petro

The article is critic with the presidential decision ("in removing a presidential rival from office on the basis of a legal technicality Juan Manuel Santos has done Colombia no favours"), although later the author writes that he respects Santos and considers him "the best hope" that Colombia has to reach a formal peace agreement. Also, he thinks that removing Santos discourages people in the left in seeking peaceful routes to reverse "the entrenched inequality and elitism" of the Colombian society. Some quotes:

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*It seems that the correct translation for the post held by Alejandro Ordónez is "inspector general", instead of "attorney general". Ordóñez, besides a man of conservative convictions, is follower of Monseigneur Lefebvre.

[Velasco]

Nobel Prize and literary giant Gabriel García Márquez died on Thursday in Mexico City. The Colombian writer -born in Aracataca (Magdalena) in 1927- was one of the main exponents of the Latin American Boom alongside with Mario Vargas Llosa, Julio Cortázar or Carlos Fuentes. His fame grew considerably following One Hundred Years of Solitude (1967), a novel set in the fictional village of Macondo (the name of a banana plantation near his birthplace in Aracataca and metaphor of Colombia itself) and canonical example of a particular form of treating the reality which came to be called magic realism.  Other key works are Autumn of the Patriarch (allegory of a Latin American dictator), Chronicle of a Death Foretold, Nobody Writes to the Colonel(referencing La Violencia, a never ending civil war started in 1948) or Love in the Time of Cholera. García Márquez, familiarly known as Gabo, was said to feel a great fascination for people who holds power and developed a friendship with several political leaders, most notably his controversial relationship with Fidel Castro but also with Felipe González and some others. To give a little idea of his big stature and relevance in the universal literature, I'll quote writer Peter Carey in The Guardian:

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http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/apr/18/joyce-garcia-marquez-peter-carey

García Márquez was incinerated in a private ceremony in Mexico City and in Colombia three days of mourning have been decreed. On Monday the presidents of Mexico and Colombia, Enrique Peña Nieto and Juan Manuel Santos, will attend a public homage in the Palacio de Bellas Artes in Mexico City. On Tuesday there will be a ceremony in Bogotá's cathedral and on Wednesday a mass reading of Nobody Writes to the Colonel.

In Colombia Maria Fernanda Cabal, a representative elect from the Democratic Centre (CD), sparked controversy in Twitter. She posted a photo of García Márquez and Fidel Castro together with the caption: "soon they will be together in hell". This tweet provoked the indignation of thousands of users in the social network. On the other hand, Democratic Centre candidate Óscar Ivan Zuluaga said that Gabo's death is an "irreparable loss". Cabal, who topped the CD list in Bogotá, has had to make a public pronouncement after her tweet (deleted  hours later) was attacked by almost everybody in Colombia. She says that her opinions don't reference the those of the presidential candidate or her political movement. The last point of her press release says:

"I showed no consideration with the family of the Nobel Prize Gabriel García Márquez in its duel, but magic realism cannot hide the reality through they live all of those that at this moment remained without voice, those that support every day the abuses and excesses of the dictatorships disguised as socialism that damage more and more to the region".

Juan Fernando Cristo (Liberal), the Speaker of the Senate, wrote also in Twitter that Cabal's tweet was "lamentable" and  exuded hatred.

[Velasco]

The campaign is plain and uninteresting. The judicial mess around the case Petro is becoming increasingly complicated and it's impossible to know when will be called a special election for the Bogotá mayoralty or even if that election will take place. Theatre of the Absurd, says Semana. The deputy Maria Fernanda Cabal has been accused in the press of having links with some far-right people by someone who is... uribista. Besides, Semana has spread her curious theories justifying the origin of the paramilitary in Colombia. She considers "self-defense" groups were a legitimate reaction to the horror caused by the FARC. Later, appealing to the "historic memory", Semana reports an old horror tale: the slaughters of Puerto Boyacá in the 80s, the beginning of the paramilitary phenomenon in Colombia. The National Unit of Protection has declared Green Alliance senator Claudia Lopez in extreme risk of being murdered, possibly in relation with her denunciations of Kiko Gómez, former governor of La Guajira and convicted for murder.

Civic Option has been courted both by Santos and Uribe. Finally the party stigmatized by its special relations with the paramilitary has decided supporting Zuluaga, the candidate of the Democratic Centre. However, as La Silla Vacía reported, in Santander the clan Aguilar (Hugo, governor; Mauricio, senator) has been campaigning for Santos and Germán Vargas Lleras has intervened in campaign rallies organized by people from Opción Ciudadana. By the way, Zuluaga's election posters show a big "Z" with the colours of the national flag: El Zorro. Here, a nice poster of Nerthink Mauricio Aguilar, who personally seems to endorse Santos, while the party officially endorses Zuluaga. Mauricio's walkabout:



Last Polls.

Ipsos/ Semana-RCN

Santos 23%; Zuluaga 15%; Peñalosa 11%; López 6%; Ramírez 6%; Blank Vote 14%; Undecided/ Don't Answer 22%.

Datexco/ El Tiempo

Santos 28.3%; Zuluaga 16%; Peñalosa 15.7%; López 9.6%; Ramírez 7.2%; Blank Vote 17.3%; Undecided 5.1%; Don't Answer 0.7%

In both polls Santos has advantage in the possible second round matches.

[Velasco]

Zuluaga's campaign is gaining traction. Last polls indicate the second round is on the way to be a close fight between santistas and uribistas.

Gallup (April 23/27) Juan Manuel Santos (National Unity) 32%; Óscar Iván Zuluaga (Democratic Centre) 20.5%; Marta Lucía Ramírez (Conservative) 11.2%; Enrique Peñalosa (Green Alliance) 10.1%; Clara López Obregón (PDA-UP) 7.1%.

Cifras y Conceptos (April 26/28): Santos 27%; Zuluaga 19%; Peñalosa 10%; López Obregón 10%; Ramírez 7%.

The trend is clear, Zuluaga is taking off the ground whereas Peñalosa is unable to grow and the  other two candidates are not serious rivals. The difference recorded in both surveys for the Ramírez candidacy might be because the CyC poll was made in urban centers and municipalities with more than 30,000 "effective votes". Conservative vote is stronger in rural areas and weak in Bogotá, whereas Green Alliance and PDA vote is stronger in the capital and weaker in rural municipalities (with some exceptions like the Catatumbo region, a PDA stronghold). Also, the CyC sample is divided by regions and shows that Santos' stronghold is in the Caribbean departments, Zuluaga is taking the lead in Antioquía and Central Colombia and Bogotá is an open ground for third candidates, although the Democratic Centre won the legislative election there and Zuluaga has made an official alliance with the popular Pacho Santos, the Uribe's former Vicepresident.

Official results of the Legislative Elections in Bogotá (valid vote percentages: lists+blank vote):

Senate: Lib 12,90% Con 5,44% Civic Option 1,72% Radical Change 8,48% Green Alliance 9,23% MIRA 4,46% U 10,29% PDA 9,31% Democratic Centre 24,37%
Chamber: Lib 12,47% Con 5,42% Civic Option 1,73% Radical Change 6,82% Green Alliance 10,83% MIRA 5,41% U 10,47% PDA 8,49% Democratic Centre 21,09% 100% Col 0,23% UP 1,73%

Below, a poster of the Zuluaga's campaign with the CD's logo, which is a man with the hand on his heart who resembles Uribe and El Zorro anagram with the colours of the national flag. The latter was an idea by Duda Mendoça, a Brazilian publicist who worked in Lula's presidential campaigns.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Leading party by department in the congressional elections.



The world map represents vote abroad. Vote percentages calculated on valid votes, excluding null and not marked ballots, according to the provisional results. For seat allocation see the infographics in a previous post. Not included Afro-Colombian and Indigenous special constituencies.

Nationwide valid vote percentages would be as follows:

Senate: Party of the U 19.11%; Democratic Centre 17.52%; Conservative Party 16.66%; Liberal Party 14.98%;  Radical Change 8.54%; Green Alliance 4.84%; Alternative Democratic Pole 4.64%; Citizen's Option 4.52%; MIRA 2.8%; Blank Votes 6.4%.

Chamber: Party of the U 19.61%; Liberal Party 17.26%; Conservative Party 16.09%; Democratic Centre 11.57%; Radical Change 9.46%; Green Alliance 4.09%; Citizen's Option 3.99%; Alternative Democratic Pole 3.54%; MIRA 3.51%; 100% Colombia 1.35%; Patriotic Union 0.85%; Blank Votes 7.04%.

great map!  any idea why CD did so much better in the Senate, and the Liberals so much better in the Chamber? 
Is Radical Change part of Santos' coalition?

[Velasco]

any idea why CD did so much better in the Senate, and the Liberals so much better in the Chamber?  
Is Radical Change part of Santos' coalition?

CD performed much better in the Senate because Álvaro Uribe topped the national list. The Democratic Centre focused its effort in the senatorial election, whereas paid little attention to the Chamber. Aside Uribe, the rest of the CD candidates were low profile and little known. Being a new party, the Uribe's CD was lacking of regional structure, elected officials and/or electoral machinery. Such things are important outside Bogotá; traditional parties (Lib and Con) and the ruling Party of the U play with advantage in the regions. It's worthy of mention that the Senate is elected nationwide, usually in open lists in which you can mark your favourite candidate. However, CD and MIRA parties opted to run closed senatorial lists. The seats in Chamber of Representatives are allocated by department and parties run lists in every one . Radical Change is member of the National Unity coalition, which backs Santos' reelection. alongside with the Liberals and the Party of the U.

(...)


The last days of the campaign have been dominated by crossed accusations between Santos and Zuluaga. On Saturday, Semana spread a video of a conversation between candidate Zuluaga and the hacker Andrés Sepúlveda on reserved matters of national security. Sepúlveda was recently arrested for being the author of illegal scouts to members of the peace commission that negotiates with the FARC in Havana and was a collaborator of the Zuluaga's campaign.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/05/20/inenglish/1400596219_081344.html

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The video was recorded by a Spaniard, Rafael Revert, expert in computer who met the Colombian hacker in a 'campus party' in Bogota, where they became friends. Revert, who was contracted by Zuluaga's campaign and is accused of illegal scouts too, said that he decided to spread the conversation on having thought that a serious illegality was being committed. Now he is a witness protected by the attorney's office.

It's hard to know if the scandal will affect Zuluaga's chances. Whereas peace talks are the central issue in this campaign, many Colombians are sceptic on them and have little hope in their success. Santos played his best card days ago, when it was announced an agreement with the FARC on drugs and narco trafficking, the 3rd of the 5 points in the peace talks agenda. A Santos' adviser says that many Colombians perceive the conflict as something remote, because nowadays armed clashes occur in about 10% of Colombia's municipalities in rural and isolated regions far from the main cities where live 5% of Colombians. However, that would be a mistake because the conflict is not only a human tragedy, but solving it is also a practical question. Colombia spends $ 5 billion in fighting the guerrilla, an amount between 1% and 1.5% of the annual GDP which is not invested in health or education, affirms the adviser. Certain analyst of the conflict called Juan Carlos Palou states the big hatred of the country towards the FARC, which is the main reason why people is not ready to accept easily the government sitting down to negotiate. Palou says that Uribe is playing an "ill-disposed strategy" consisting in "disturbing the hatred and claiming that the best solution is the military" in order to "not deliver the country to narco-terrorists ".

In any case, the fight between Santos and the Uribe's candidate is isolating the rest of candidates, whose voices are almost unheard. Neither the centrist and 'apolitical' Peñalosa, running for the centre-left Green Alliance, nor the leftist Clara López from the Alternative Democratic Pole earn some attention in the middle of the affray.

EDIT/Last polls.

Ipsos (May 18)

Zuluaga 29.5%; Santos 28.5%; Ramírez 10.1%; Peñalosa 9.7%; López 9.4%

Datexco (May 16)

Santos 27.7%; Zuluaga 25.6%; Peñalosa 9.7%; López 9.7%; Ramírez 9.4%

Cifras y Conceptos (May 15)

Santos 27.7%; Zuluaga 23.9%; Peñalosa 13%; López 9%; Ramírez 8.7%

[Nutmeg]

Alright, polls are closed. June 15, here we come!

[Velasco]

Provisional results (99.69% reported)

Óscar Iván Zuluaga (Democratic Centre) 29.27%

Juan Manuel Santos (National Unity) 25.65%

Martha Lucía Ramírez (Conservative) 15.54%

Clara López Obregón (Alternative Democratic Pole) 15.23%

Enrique Peñalosa (Green Alliance) 8.29%

Blank Votes 6%

http://www.registraduria.gov.co/99PR1/DPR9999999_L1.htm

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

Alright, polls are closed.

Provisional results (99.69% reported)

That was quick.

I guess that video didn't slow down Zuluaga.

[MaxQue]

Provisional results (99.69% reported)

Óscar Iván Zuluaga (Democratic Centre) 29.27%

Juan Manuel Santos (National Unity) 25.65%

Martha Lucía Ramírez (Conservative) 15.54%

Clara López Obregón (Alternative Democratic Pole) 15.23%

Enrique Peñalosa (Green Alliance) 8.29%

Blank Votes 6%

http://www.registraduria.gov.co/99PR1/DPR9999999_L1.htm

Zuluaga won or there will be a second round? If the latter, when?

[Famous Mortimer]

Run-off June 15th.

Wow, what a massive swing to the right. Not just Uribe's party coming in first (which was expected based on the polls) but the Conservatives still coming in third.