Colombia presidential election 2014

[Velasco]

The presidential election will be held on May 25, preceded by the Legislative elections (Senate and Chamber of Representatives) on March 9.

I was about to open a thread for this next weekend, with some maps of the 2010 election. Anyway, I'll made a brief description of the main political forces concurring in this election resorting mainly the Wikipedia.

Social Unity National Party (PSUN, also known as Party of the U): Founded in 2005 by the incumbent president Juan Manuel Santos, mainly with former members of the Liberal Party of Colombia who left the party to endorse the reelection of Álvaro Uribe Vélez in the 2006 election. Lacking enough support to be postulated as candidate of the Liberal Party, Uribe left it in 2001 to run as independent in the following year's presidential election, backed by a civil movement called Colombia First (Primero Colombia). In the 2002 election Uribe defeated the liberal candidate Horacio Serpa by a 21.2% margin (Uribe 53%; Serpa 31.8%), with the leftist Luis Eduardo Garzón (Independent Democratic Pole) and the conservative Noemí Sanín trailing at a great distance. The so-called "Party of the U" didn't manage to unite all Uribe supporters in the Colombian Congress. The Uribe's project is backed as well by an important sector of the Conservative Party, the Radical Change Party (PCR) and other disappeared Uribista factions. PSUN is the first minority in the Senate (28/102) and in the Chamber of Representatives (48/165) thanks to Uribe's personal endorsement of its candidates.

In the Álvaro Uribe's two consecutive terms, PSUN was ideologically quite right-wing. The policy of "democratic security" (fighting the FARC to the death, reestablishment of the governmental authority in the large patches of the country where it was disappeared...) was the top priority, followed by employment and investment in Colombia (the party advocates for neoliberal economic policies and free-trade treaties) and fierce opposition to Hugo Chávez and his 'Bolivarian' project. Some PSUN and PCR members have been involved in the Colombian 'parapolitics scandal' and Uribe's administration was accused of being too soft with members pf paramilitary forces like the United Self-Defense Forces of Colombia (AUC). Regarding to links between paramilitary and politicians, former president César Gaviria stated: "the President Uribe had a passive attitude throughout the campaign in relation to these subjects and I would say that he has been a little too passive all the time, but he is still on time to assume a more decisive position to confront these problems". Anyway, the democratic security policy succeed in reducing the number of terrorist attacks, homicides and kidnappings, as well in reinstalling governmental control throughout the country. These achievements and the weakness of the FARC are obviously the main reasons of Uribe's huge popularity in a country so hardly struck by decades of violence (narco, guerrilla, paramilitary).

Since 2010, when Juan Manuel Santos was elected president, the governmental policies and the PSUN ideology have evolved to more pragmatic stances, namely a softer approach to FARC (openness to negotiate, but not leaving the "democratic security") and Hugo Chávez. On November 2010, the incumbent Colombian president and the deceased leader of Venezuela had an historical meeting in Santa Marta, the Colombian city where Simón Bolívar died in 1830.

Other points of PSUN ideological platform are development of a welfare state; recognition of family as the base of society; approval of globalisation; emphasis on education, science and technology; "communitarian state" (development of local communites) and decentralisation.  Juan Manuel Santos claims to admire Tony Blair and his Third Way. Critics claim that PSUN is ideologically quite imprecise and it's mainly an electoral vehicle for its main personalities.

Uribe Democratic Center (UCD) Its slogan is the famous Uribe's motto: "Firm Hand, Big Heart". Founded on July 2012 by PSUN dissidents dissatisfied with the peace talks between the Colombian government and the FARC. Main personalities: Álvaro Uribe, Óscar Iván Zuloaga (economist, Uribe's Minister of Treasury) and Francisco Santos Calderón (Vicepresident, 2002-2010). Some members, such as former Antioquía governor Luis Alfredo Ramos, are imprisoned because of supposed links with the paramilitary.

Alternative Democratic Pole (PDA): Leftist party founded in 2005, between socialdemocracy and 'democratic socialism'. Nowadays it's the only party in open opposition to Juan Manuel Santos. Given that Liberal and Conservative parties back the president, one way or another, the 12 PDA Congressmen (4 representatives, 8 senators) constitute a rather weak opposition. Many of its members are former guerrilla fighters demobilised in the 80s and the 90s. PDA's main electoral success was in the 2006 election, when Carlos Gaviria placed second with 22% of the vote (Uribe won a landslide with 62%). In 2010 Gustavo Petro -nowadays mayor of Bogotá and in the Progressive Movement/Green Alliance- came 4th with 9%. In the 2010 debates Petro (former M-19 guerrillero) was considered the most articulate of the presidential candidates. Shortly after, Petro had a meeting with president-elect Santos with the disapproval of the PDA leadership. Also, another ideological divergence was the support of Petro to the Free Trade treaty with the USA, because he considered that "it would allow the defense of the workers and the environment". The PDA current leader and candidate is the economist (Harvard) Clara López Obregón. On June 2011 Clara López was appointed provisional mayor of Bogotá by President Santos, replacing the controversial Samuel Moreno Rojas (PDA, suspended and later expelled from the party) and succeed by Petro.

Patriotic Union (UP): Founded in 1985 by demobilised FARC and ELN guerrilla fighters alongside with the Communist Party of Colombia (PCC) during the peace talks in the Belisario Bethencourt presidency. It got 4.5% of the vote in the 1986 presidential election. The party suffered a gradual extermination campaign by the drug lords and paramilitary, with many of its leaders and elected officials killed; its support and presence declined. The FARC has used the extermination of UP members as a motivation to continue the struggle (of course, nowadays the FARC is more like a criminal organization that enriches itself with the drug trafficking and the kidnapping industry, with a revolutionary alibi)  but, on the other hand, people like the communist militant Bernardo Jaramillo openly criticized both the FARC and the government for their mutual intolerance and unwillingness to find a compromise. The Colombian Judiciary gave back the party legal status in 2013, despite lacking of parliamentary representation since 2002, in recognition of the special circumstances which disallowed UP to run in the elections.

Green Alliance (AV): Is the result of the merger of the Green Party and the Gustavo Petro's Progressive Movement. The Colombian Green Party has a centrist/ social-liberal orientation, instead of being left-leaning like most of its counterparts in the rest of the world. Antanas Mockus, former mayor of Bogotá, admirer of Angela Merkel and the first green presidential candidate (Ingrid Betancourt intended to run in 2002 with the Verde Oxígeno party, but she was kidnapped), came second in the 2010 election getting 21.5% in the first round (Juan Manuel Santos got 46.7%). Given that all candidates in the 1st round minus Petro backed Santos and Mockus didn't want the endorsement of the left, Santos won the runoff by a landslide (69.1%/27.5%). Mockus left the Green Party in 2011 to create the Indigenous Social Alliance Movement (ASI), which won the government in Cauca, Vichada and Guaviare departments. The departure of Antanas Mockus and Antioquía governor Sergio Fajardo might erode the Green Alliance's voter base. With the inclusion of Petro, the Alliance looks like being somewhat center-left oriented. Also, some UP members are going to run in the AV lists for the Senate. It's the only force that is going to hold primaries.

The two traditional parties in Colombian politics, the Liberal and Conservative, have a very long history. The liberals and many conservatives are in the National Unity Coalition, lead by Juan Manuel Santos. As noted above, the Conservative Party is severely splitted between supporters of Santos, Uribe/Zuloaga and the ones who want a proper candidacy. In 2010, the conservative candidate Noemí Sanín (6.1%, 5th) and the liberal Rafael Pardo (4.4%, 6th) got rather poor results.

[Velasco]

2010 election:

The 2010 Colombian presidential election was held on Sunday May 30, 2010. The scrutiny ended officially on June 08, 2010. Nevertheless the results of the above mentioned scrutiny demonstrated that no candidate had reached the absolute majority of the votes, reason for which there was a runoff on June 20, 2010, which gave as victor the candidate Juan Manuel Santos (Social Unity National Party), who was elected a president by the highest number of voters in the history of the Colombian democracy.

Main candidates in the First Round:

Juan Manuel Santos (PSUN or Party of the U) 46.67%:

Member of one of the most powerful families of Colombia, former owner and partner (by 2010) of El Tiempo -Colombia's main newspaper- Santos held important portfolios in different governments and, given his approval rates, he obtained a good note: Foreign Issues and Trade with the liberal César Gaviria; Estate with the conservative Andrés Pastrana; and Defense with the right-winger Álvaro Uribe. Albeit he was lacking Álvaro Uribe's charisma, he had the advantage of being able to work as a team with his collaborators and delegate functions. In contrast, Uribe's management had been characterized by being excessively personalistic (Uribe has caudillo makings, according to some people). Also, one of the traits of his personality, according with some sources, that influenced his success at the head of the different departments is the aptitude to assume risky decisions. For example, the Operation Jaque, a sui generis and dangerous mission which ended with the rescue Ingrid Betancourt, three North American contractors and six uniformed Colombians, fallen into the FARC's clutches.

His critics qualify him as a flip-flopper, a man who has jumped into countless alliances, untrustworthy and ready for treason. His friends emphasize his skills in negotiation and strategy. Chávez declared during the campaign that he would never meet him. Months later, both presidents met in Santa Marta.

Antanas Mockus (Green Party) 21.5%:

Son of Lithuanians. Child prodigy who studied Mathematics and Philosophy. In his first public post as Rector of the National University, his reputation didn't get out for the kindness of his excellent management, but because Mockus lowered his trousers and showed his back to a nourished group of rioters who were not leaving him to speak in a forum. With non conventional methods and with a scarce advertising, he conquered the mayoralty of Bogota in 1994. There, he applied his theory of the government by means of the pedagogy and the example. He achieved that Bogotans were saving water and things as simple as to respect the zebra crossings.

In the 1998 presidential, he agreed to be Noemí Sanín's ticket partner, running in an independent candidacy that caused sensation in the first round, but couldn't win the big parties (Cons and Libs). During the 2010 campaign, he conducted a "Green Tide" which finally placed him in a remarkable second position, although his chances of victory never were great.

Germán Vargas Lleras (Radical Change Party) 10.11%:

Grandson of the ex-president Carlos Lleras Restrepo (1964-1970) and nephew of the presidential ex-candidate and journalist Carlos Lleras de la Fuente. During his second term as Senator (reelected in 1998) he was a ferrous critic of the talks of peace between the FARC and president Andrés Pastrana. This opposition made him approaching to Álvaro Uribe. Vargas Lleras decides to support Uribe's candidacy and quits the Liberal Party. In 2002 he won a third term in the Senate as member of the movement named Colombia Always (dissidents of the Liberal party, founded by Juan Lozano). Five months later, Vargas Lleras receives as gift a book-bomb and as consequence of the explosion he lost several fingers of his left hand. In 2003 he joined the Radical Change movement, founded by a group of former Galanistas (supporters of liberal politician Luis Carlos Galán, killed in 1989). Two years later, Vargas Lleras suffered a new attempt, in which he was unharmed, but several by his escorts were seriously wounded. The attempt faced the senator with the president Uribe because the latter attributed the attack to the FARC, without paying attention to information the senator possessed pointing at a possible alliance between politicians and paramilitary. Staunch supporter of the "democratic security" policy, he was firmly opposed to the reelection of Uribe.

Gustavo Petro (Alternative Democratic Pole) 9.13%:

He was a local activist in Zipaquirá, near Bogotá, and elected councilor. Later he joined the M19, a guerrilla movement arisen after the so called electoral fraud of 1970, though it he did not clutch the weapon. As consequence of the military repression in 1985, he affirms that he was tortured and was still in prison when the M19 took the Bogotá Courthouse in 1989, which ended in a blood bath. Once he left jail, Petro returned to the M19; together with Carlos Pizarro Leongomez and Antonio Navarro Wolf he laid the foundations of what would be the process of peace between the guerrilla and the government of Belisario Betancourt. Once demobilised, the movement M19 Democratic Alliance was constituted as a political force in the left, but his leader, the presidential candidate Pizarro Leongomez, was murdered shortly after. Nevertheless, the movement managed to get a place in the National Constituent Assembly that served to write the new constitution that today applies to the country. Petro left Colombia between 1994 and 1998 due to menaces and was appointed as Human Rights diplomatic attaché in the Colombian Embassy in Belgium; also he specialized in Development and Environment in Leuven Catholic University.

In 2002 Petro won a seat in the Chamber of Representatives. There, he denounced the infiltration of paramilitary groups in the institutions of the Government. In 2005 the different leftist factions gather around the Alternative Democratic Pole. Petro denounced the AUC paramilitary contributed to Álvaro Uribe's presidential campaign of 2002. Also it was the first one in denouncing the illegal scouts of the Colombian intelligence (DAS) to opponents and justices.

Noemí Sanín (Conservative Party of Colombia) 6.13%:

Born in Medellin, Noemí Sanín is a career diplomat. She was appointed Minister of Communications by Belisario Betancourt (192-1986); César Gaviria appointed her as ambassador in Venezuela and later Minister of Foreign Affairs. She was running by a third time; in 1998 as independent with Antanas Mockus and in 2002 with the Conservative Party.

Rafael Pardo (Liberal Party of Colombia) 4.38%:

Economist, politician and journalist. Pardo led the negotiations which ended with the demobilisation of M19, EPL and other guerrilla groups. President César Gaviria appointed him as National Security Adviser and later he was the first civilian in charge of the Ministry of Defense after more than 50 years. He created a police special unit (the "search block") destined to attack the now extint Cartel of Medellín. Also, he reformed and cleansed the police and the defense budget was increased during his term.

Sources:

http://accionpoliticaglobal.wordpress.com/2013/08/15/proceso-electoral-elecciones-presidenciales-de-colombia-2010/

http://www.elmundo.es/america/especiales/2010/05/elecciones_colombia/index.html

Results by department:



Juan Manuel Santos performed strongly throughout the country, winning in all departents except Putumayo (3rd with 23.35% of the vote). The SW corner of the country including Nariño (31.2%), Cauca (35.9%) and Valle (37.78%) departments recorded lower percentages, if compared with other parts of Colombia. In Bogotá, Santos (40.4%) defeated Mockus (27.6%) handily. In the Caribbean region, Santos did pretty well, above 50% in most of the departments, only slightly worse in Atlántico (capital Barranquilla, 37.28%). He got high vote percentages in departments like Cundinamarca (around Bogotá) or Huila and Tolima in the country's spine (The Andes cordillera). Santos' best result was 75% in Casanare (Orinoquia region or Llanos Orientales, oil reservoirs), also he won by a landslide in departments like Arauca (next to the Venezuela border) or Meta, places where the army took the offensive against the FARC. The best places for Mockus were Putumayo (winner with 28.89%), Valle (capital Cali, 27.8%), Cauca and the aforementioned Bogotá. The green candidate performed well in some departments in the Amazonia and worse in central Colombia and the Caribbean region (worst result, Sucre with 8.7%). Vargas Lleras did pretty well in Bogotá (14.75%), Antioquía (capital Medellín, 13.47%) and Atlántico. Petro came a distant second in the Caribbean region behind Santos (Atlántico 23.27%; Sucre 24.65%) and placed second behind Mockus in Putumayo (26.66%). In Bogotá the PDA candidate had a mediocre performance (8.6%) and did poorly in central Colombia, with special mention to Antioquía (3.8%). Caldas (in the 'coffee belt') was the best department for Noemí Sanín and only the Córdoba department mitigated to some extent the poor liberal performance.

Results by department and municipality: http://www.colombia.com/especiales/elecciones_2010/primera_vuelta/resultados/

Here, a complete analysis of the electoral figures of that election by MOE Colombia:
http://moecolombia.org/descargas/Kit%20electoral.pdf

This is only to give some background. I have no intention of making a summary of the fascinating Colombian History since the Bolívar years, although it's really worthy of attention. I'm making a map of this election by municipality, but it will take me several days to finish it.

[Velasco]

Now the "U" means "Unity", for sure   The new Uribe thing is indeed officially the Democratic Centre, previously was the Pure Democratic Centre and the Uribe Democratic Centre. Uribe cannot run himself due to a Constitutional impediment. The 2004 reform expressly prohibits that any person who has been in the post for two terms could be chosen for the presidency of the republic.

[Velasco]

The Court of Cundinamarca department has frozen the disqualification for 15 years to which the General Attorney's office had condemned to the mayor of Bogota Gustavo Petro for supposed irregularities in the process of taking into the public ownership garbage collection. Such process was deemed as somewhat chaotic and not too well handled by Petro -as a consequence, during several days the streets were full of litter- but the decision of the powerful Alejandro Ordóñez was disproportionate to many people, who consider that the General Attorney has an excessive power to destitute elected officials - the Minister of Justice stated the government will reform the legislation on attorney's attributions-. Ordóñez is very close to former president Uribe and allegedly the latter offered him to run as his presidential candidate.

The Court's sentence reproaches the sanction of the Attorney's office and considers that it replaces the electors' political control, a fundamental right in the Court's opinion. With the purpose of returning the control to electors, on March 2, 2014 a popular consultation would be held to decide on the recall of mandate of the major mayor of Bogota. However, the Colombian government states that there are no resources to celebrate the referendum on that date. In addition, the judgment will be appealed before the State Council, so the issue will last for months. Petro is launching an active campaign in internet and his supporters demonstrate in Bogotá. The Uribista right is preparing a campaign in support of the mayor's destitution.

On a side note, there are conflicts in some districts in the south of Bogotá, namely Ciudad Bolívar and the neighbouring Soacha. Some young people and a graffiti artist who backed Petro were killed. According to El Espectador, some leaflets with the authorship of a supposed paramilitary group have been distributed calling for a "social cleansing". The police, however, states that there is not a clear link between the leaflets and murders in the last days.

Another news in El Espectador talks about homicides in Cali (average 3 per day):

http://www.elespectador.com/noticias/nacional/cali-asesinan-tres-personas-al-dia-articulo-471838

General Óscar Naranjo, formerly Chief of the National Police and lately security adviser of Enrique Peña Nieto, will return from Mexico. Yesterday he stated to El País that he will run as Juan Manuel Santos' running mate if the president asks him. This would not imply that he was stopping taking part in peace talks with the FARC. According to El Espectador, Naranjo would have the support of the Liberal Party, which deems him as a "general for peace".

Link to the interview (in Spanish):

http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2014/01/29/actualidad/1391023337_393722.html

[Velasco]

First Round of the 2010 Election by municipality:

There is some fascinating stuff about Colombian elections, including the influence of the different actors involved in the armed conflict (guerrilla and paramilitary). Some studies (namely those conducted by Rodrigo Losada, author of an atlas of Colombian Presidential Elections between 1974 and 2002) demonstated a correlation between electoral behaviour and guerrilla or paramilitary areas of influence in previous elections. Apparently and with independence of socio-economic factors, political tradition, size or geographical situation, municipalities controlled by guerrilla movements tended to have lower turnouts and those controlled by AUC and other paramilitary tended to have high turnouts and abnormally low percentages of blank and null ballots. In congressional elections the latter tended to have a heavy concentration of vote to a determined candidacy. In the 2002 Presidential election there was a clear correlation as well between guerrilla/paramilitary control and vote percentage for the Uribe and Garzón candidacies.

According to the article linked below, the paramilitary behaviour in the electoral processes had three variants:

- Hegemonic model: the paramilitary resort to all methods, including violence and intimidation , to make their candidates being elected.
- Restricted competence: the paramilitary have a favorite candidate; other candidates are tolerated, but opponents have been neutralized.
- Electoral indifference: no clear indications of interest for a specific candidate.

http://www.javeriana.edu.co/revistas/Ofi/pesquisa/wordpress/?p=526

Here, link (English) to the report of the Pre-Electoral Observation Mission to Colombia, prior to the 2010 elections.

http://www.cipamericas.org/archives/2040

The Mission identified the following factors (read details in the article) which "impeded free and fair elections in some areas" they visited:

1) Presence of illegal armed groups

2) Fraud and electoral crimes

3) Illegal campaign financing

4) Manipulation of social programs for political ends.

The insets include enlargements for the 19 urban localities of Bogotá plus municipalities in the Cundinamarca department integated in the city, the Medellín (Valle de Aburrá) and Barranquilla Metro areas and the Cali conurbation plus the neighbouring Palmira.

Maybe later I'll post some maps available in the internet with areas of influence of guerrilla and paramilitary, areas with coca farming or the criminal bands (called BACRIM in Colombia) which replaced AUC and other groups when they were formally demobilised.

[Velasco]

The absence of the Conservative Party in the meeting between president Santos and the National Unity Table last Thursday starts to draw the reconfiguration of the presidential coalition, which would be of "liberal unity" according to El Espectador and composed of Liberal, Radical Change and PSUN parties.

The new four-year term can be in interdiction, says the newspaper, because in Nariño's House it continues turning around the idea of a new presidential period of only two years. The offer already ventilated by the liberal senator Juan Fernando Cristo, is to stimulate in the new legislative period a political reform in which the reelection is eliminated and is extended the presidential term to six years. Reform that would shelter Santos and would be necessary because reelection proved to be "not suitable for the country."

There are two candidates to be the Santos' running mate: Germán Vargas Lleras and General Óscar Naranjo. Vargas Lleras has the advantage of having his own party and, besides, he's more popular than Santos in the polls. The Radical Change leader has presidential ambitions and Vargas Lleras could use Vicepresidency as a springboard to be the Santos' heir, specially if the reform prospers and the next election is in 2016.

Óscar Naranjo is backed by Liberal Party leader César Gaviria, who has and old rivalry with Vargas Lleras. Gaviria is not seeking reelection in the Colombian Congress and could be minister in the next cabinet. As for Naranjo, he completed his duties as special security advisor in Mexico:

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http://elpais.com/elpais/2014/01/30/inenglish/1391100137_025498.html

[Velasco]

Internal fracture in the Green Alliance. A majority of the Progressive Movement membership will abstain to take part in the Green Alliance primaries, according to La Silla Vacía. The reason is that the progressives don't want to assume the commitment of backing former Bogotá mayor Enrique Peñalosa, who is the likely winner of this contest. Many progressives don't feel represented by Peñalosa, who comes from the Green Party and whom they consider uribista. Enrique Peñalosa ran against Gustavo Petro backed by Green and PSUN parties (besides, Peñalosa accepted Uribe's endorsement), placing second. By that time, the Green Party was allied with president Santos, which motivated Mockus' departure. Progressives tried to prevent Peñalosa's pre- candidacy, arguing that the former mayor didn't accomplished with the 11 programmatical points of the Green/Progressive Alliance, specially with the one regarding support to mayor Gustavo Petro. Nevertheless, they remained unarmed when Peñalosa - for suggestion of the candidate for the Senate Néstor Daniel García - agreed to meet Petro and said that he would respect all Alliance's agreement, including not campaigning for Petro's recall.

The three likely pre-candiates running in the primaries, which will be held in coincidence with the legislative elections are Enrique Peñalosa, senator John Sudarsky (Green Party/ 'Mockusian' faction) and senator Camilo Romero (Progressive Movement).

The decision of the Progressives' national direction leaves pre-candidate Camilo Romero -who thinks that he has chances against Peñalosa- in a bad place. Also, the Alliance congressional candidacies might be affected by the internal conflict. The main Progressive candidates for Senate are Antonio Navarro Wolff*, Witney Chávez and Jorge Guevara.

*Navarro Wolff was born in Pasto (Nariño) and joined M-19 in 1974, leaving his career as sanitary engineer. In May 1985, Navarro suffered an attempt in Cali that almost caused his death. A military man threw a grenade, which exploited next to where he was seated. Navarro lost half a leg and also a nerve of his tongue, which still causes him problems of pronunciation. While he was recovering in Cuba, the M-19 took the Bogotá Courthouse as a form of blackmail in order that the Supreme Court of Justice was judging the president Belisario Betancur for the violation of the peace agreements. The terrible bloodbath caused a loss of popularity for the guerrilla. Then Navarro, Gustavo Petro and other survivors came to the conclusion that armed fight was not the way to achieve the democratic opening that they were proclaiming, and in 1989 they decided to negotiate the peace with the Virgilio Barco administration, under the leadership of Carlos Pizarro and Navarro Wolff (M-19 numbers 1 and 2, respectively). Peace was signed on March 11, 1990. After the murder of Carlos Pizarro Leongómez, Navarro ran as presidential candidate in the 1990 election in the M-19 Democratic Alliance, placing third with 12.5% of the vote. In the 1991 election for the National Constituent Assembly the M-19 got the highest vote in the country and a third of the delegates and Navarro was elected one of its three presidents. Later, he was Health Minister with César Gaviria and ran again in the 1994 presidential in the Compromiso Colombia/M19 ticket, getting only 3.8% of the vote. After that failure, he ran for the Pasto (Nariño) mayoralty against Myriam Paredes (Conservative, currently in the Senate), winning comfortably. In 1998 he was awarded as the best mayor of Colombia, that year was elected deputy and senator in 2002. In 2003 he founded the Independent Democratic Pole (PDI), which in 2006 muted to the current Alternative Democratic Pole (PDA). Then Navarro returned to his department to be elected governor of Nariño, in the SW of Colombia. He governed in a "Third Way" style, combining participative strategies with programs orientated towards the improvement of the economic chances of the population, with alliances with the private sector. The implementation of participative budgets gave him a huge popularity. After leaving Nariño, Navarro was appointed by Petro as Government Secretary with the intention of replicating the Nariño experience on participative budgets in Bogotá. Navarro left in March 2012 for no apparent reason and became in the political chief of the Progressives. Navarro took part in the negotiations between the Greens, the Progressives and Compromiso Ciudadano (led by Antioquía governor Sergio Fajardo) which ended in the Green/Progressive merger in the Alliance (finally, the Sergio Fajardo party didn't join).

Biographic profile: http://lasillavacia.com/quienesquien/perfilquien/antonio-navarro-wolff

[Velasco]

1) The New Liberalism surged in 1979 as a dissidence of the Liberal Party around the figure of Luis Carlos Galán, son of an outstanding liberal leader of the Santander department and protégé and designed political heir of president Carlos Lleras Restrepo -grandfather of Germán Vargas Lleras, who was elected councilor for New Liberalism when he was aged 19-.  It faced the Liberal and Conservative traditional apparatuses, in an attempt of regenerating the system from the inside. The aim of New Liberalism was fighting corruption, narco and "politicking". In 1980 the New Liberalism achieved a great success in the Bogotá local elections and Galán placed third in the 1982 presidential election, behind Belisario Betancur (Conservative) and Alfonso López Michelsen (Liberal), getting 10.9% of the vote plus 6 senators and 9 representatives in the Colombian Congress. In 1986 Galán decided to back the liberal Virgilio Barco, who won by a landslide (58.3%) against the Conservatives and the UP. In 1987 Galán decided to join the Liberal Party again and won the nomination for the 1990 candidacy in the presidential election. Galán was the clear favourite to win, but he was killed in Soacha (Cundinamarca, Bogotá suburbs) in August 1989. There are several versions on the authory:

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 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luis_Carlos_Gal%C3%A1n

Also, in the Spanish version of the article is mentioned this:

"On February 14 2012, the former paramilitary boss Diego Fernando Murillo Bejarano, aka "Don Berna", declared before the District Attorney's office that the former chief of the United Self-Defenses of Colombia (AUC), Carlos Castaño Gil, was the mastermind of the assassination. Galán would represent a danger for them in that time if he managed to be elected president of Colombia."

As for the ideology of New Liberalism, I'll quote a paragraph from an article in El Tiempo:

"Indifferent to ideologisms, Galán was really sure that the solution of the problems of the country was him, personifying the symbol of renovation and cleanliness, and his political project was based on it. Some accused Galan's movement of being excessively caudillista and exclusive. Probably because of it, his movement didn't resist the brutal onslaught of his death, and its prompt dissolution demonstrated that the New Liberalism was basically Luis Carlos Galán, starting and final point of one of the most interesting political projects of the century."

http://www.eltiempo.com/archivo/documento/MAM-894207

In that article Galán is depicted as a "radical liberal". Also, it's mentioned that Luis Escobar, the famous boss of the Medellín drug cartel, belonged to the movement until 1982, when he was expelled. By the time Escobar joined New Liberals, he was only known as a richman from Medellín ("in spite of his political vivacity and futurist vision, he was a too credulous and ingenuous man, and for this door undesirable prominent figures slipped past him to his movement"). Luis Carlos Galán is praised for being a visionary, excellent diagnostician and great orator. His detractors, like that Liberal senator Alberto Santofimio allegedly involved in his murder, called him "gravedigger of liberalism" because his 1982 candidacy allowed Belisario Bentancur to win the election. Several admirers of his figure say his legacy lives on in the spirit of the 1991 Constitution.

Former members of New Liberalism mentioned in La Silla Vacía website: Senator Édgar Gómez Román (Liberal), Senator Juan Lozano Ramírez (Party of the U), Germán Vargas Lleras (Radical Change), Jorge Antonio Segebre (Liberal, governor of Atlántico department) and Clara López Obregón (PDA leader and presidential candidate).

2) The main cause of the M-19 decline, after its spectacular surge in 1990 and 1991, seems to be the incoherence between an autonomous and rupturist offer and the lack of opposition to the establishment parties once in the parliament (Navarro Wolff was in the César Gaviria administration).

"After a short period of electoral rise (...) in the elections for the National Constituent Assembly and in the legislative elections of October 1991, in the 1994 congressional elections the political presence of the AD M-19 blurred and ceased to be identified as an alternative option. The movement is not capable of being organized as a political party, nor capable of a coordinate action at regional and national levels, nor creating the necessary bases to be valid as electoral and political force (...)"

http://www.humanas.unal.edu.co/elitesycrisisnacional/ivan.htm

[Velasco]

Ingrid Betancourt was also a member of New Liberalism.
Clara López Obregón surprises me though. It seems all the members listed were/are pretty hawkish re:The FARC.

I though CLO was a FARC sympathizer. If she's not, why didn't she join the Progressive Movement?

Do you mean those whom later joined the Party of the U or Radical Change? Ingrid Betancourt wasn't hawkish before being kidnapped.

I don't know if Clara López Obregón was ever pro-FARC. She is from a good family -niece of president Alfonso López Michelsen and painter Alejandro Obregón- and studied economics in Harvard, where apparently she joined movements against the Vietnam War and in favour of Civil Rights. In La Silla Vacía (see link below), she's depicted as a woman who liked the moderate left/dissident profile of her uncle López Michelsen when he led the MRL (Liberal Revolutionary Movement, 1959-1966), which seems to be an antecedent of the New Liberalism in the late 70s. She was elected Bogotá councilor in 1984 and jumped from NL to the UP by that time -her husband, Carlos Romero, was militant of the Patriotic Union-. She ran for the mayoralty in 1988, heading an UP-led leftist coalition. In the 90s, she developed a low-profile career as adviser in several departments (Development, Work) and joined the PDA in 2006, working later as adviser of mayor Samuel Moreno Rojas and replacing him by presidential appointment when the first was removed by the General Attorney. Clara López Obregón always defended former mayor Moreno and maintained that his dismissal was the product of a conspiracy. As mayoress (June-Dec 2011), she had a good approval rate. In 2010 she ran for the Vicepresidency with Gustavo Petro in the PDA ticket and later has became in one of his main critics, once Petro was elected mayor of Bogotá.

http://lasillavacia.com/quienesquien/perfilquien/clara-eugenia-lopez-obregon

EDIT: I forgot to post some poll results.

Ipsos (Jan 31, 2014): Juan Manuel Santos (U) 25%; Óscar Iván Zuluaga (Democratic Centre) 8%; Enrique Peñalosa (Green Alliance) 6%; Clara López Obregón (PDA) 6%; Marta Lucía Rodríguez (Con) 4%; Aída Avella (UP) 1%; Blank 27%; undecided, don't answer 23%.

Gallup/Cifras y Conceptos* (Jan 1, 2014): Santos 26%; Peñalosa 9%; Zuluaga 8%; López Obregón 7%; Aída Abella 1%; Blank 30%; undecided, don't answer 19%

_{* The conservative candidate doesn't appear.}

El Tiempo (W, Feb 3): Santos 24.4%; Marta Lucía Ramírez 7.7%; Óscar Ivan Zuluaga 7.6%; Enrique Peñalosa 7.1%; Clara López Obregón 6%; Camilo Romero (Green Alliance) 1.2%; Aída Abella 0.7%; Blank 30.5%; Undecided 14.1%; don't answer 0.7%.

http://www.eltiempo.com/Multimedia/infografia/Votoapresidencia/

[Velasco]

So you mean that anyone who was in the UP in the 80s has the FARC stigma forever.  I don't know how the things should be, but in discharge of the UP and the people who believed in that project a few things can be said:

1) The UP was born as product of the process of peace between president Belisario Betancur and the FARC. In that time there was no other left-wing party and hopes had settled in an agreement that was ending with a complete demobilisation of the FARC. The UP was the necessary vehicle in order that the guerrilla was participating in politics, as it happened with the M-19 in 1990.

2) The peace talks failed and the FARC left the UP in 1987. Despite the UP continues being identified with the FARC, the link seems to be broken long time ago. Nowadays the UP is only a small group of nostalgic survivors; its candidate Aída Avella has lived 17 years exiled in Switzerland in order to protect her life. If the ongoing talks are successful, the FARC will not use the UP to return to politics. There are rumours on a new movement called Marcha Patriótica (Patriotic March) created in 2012 by former liberal senator Piedad Córdoba and several social leaders; the Communist Party joined the new movement and was expelled recently from the PDA as a consequence.

3) The UP was literally exterminated by the far right in the 90s. The two presidential candidates -Jaime Pardo Leal and Bernardo Jaramillo- and other 3000 candidates for diverse posts were murdered and the FARC didn't move an eyebrow.

[Velasco]

"Dark forces" (Santos dixit) stalk the talks of peace between the Colombian government and the FARC. According to an investigation released by Semana magazine, there was military espionage from a place in Bogota where there were working a restaurant and a meeting place for hackers. In that place there was a secret office called Andromeda, supposedly supervised by a captain of the Army, with whom there were working active members of his battalion and civil hackers with the mission with the purrpose of hacking e-mail accounts and cell phone conversations. President Santos stated the following day the Andromeda office had authorization to do intelligence work, but not for illegal scouts. Semana also revealed that five months ago, the District attorney's office closed one of the interception rooms of the Army, known as grey room, that worked in the CIME (Military Intelligence), and that has been key to give crushing blows to terrorism.. Two generals in charge of the intelligence have been relieved from their commands.  It's questioned if people in the Army opposed to the peace talks is leaking information to Álvaro Uribe.

Some candidates of the different parties in the Senate race:

Party of the U: 17 out of 28 senators seek for reelection. The party led by Juan Manuel Santos has included people from the entertainment business and people with public recognition. Carlos Valderrama, former star of the Colombian football team, was on the verge of running with the Party of the U, but changed his mind in the last moment.

Among others are running Jimmy Chamorro (leader of a church founded by his father), Freddy Padilla de León (former Chief Commander of the Army with Uribe, appointed ambassador in Austria by Santos), Jorge Géchem Turbay (kidnapped by the FARC for 6 years, member of the Peace Commission), Carlos Ferro (former governor of Cundinamarca), Roy Barrera (Congress Speaker this year, president of the peace Commission)...

Democratic Centre (Uribe) On the top of the list is Álvaro Uribe Vélez (former president, 2002-2010), also running María del Rosario Guerra (former minister, member of a powerful family of the Sucre department) and Paloma Valencia Laserna (lawyer and philosopher, famous because of her radio appearances, also writes columns in El País and El Espectador; opposed to the peace talks), among others.

Conservative Party: 19 senators seek for reelection. The Conservative list is plenty of caciques and people coming from traditional clans of the Colombian politics. Some of the top candidates are the octogenarian cacique of the Atlántico department Roberto Gerlein (if elected, he will serve 40 years in the Senate in 2018), Jorge Hernando Pedraza (Boyacá) and Efraín Cepeda (another veteran senator from Atlántico).

Liberal Party: On the top of the list the former presidential candidate Horacio Serpa, who has a long political career (Minister of Interior with Ernesto Samper, OAS ambassador with Uribe, governor of Santander, congressman, etc). Other candidates: Viviane Morales (former General Attorney), Francisco Andrade (radio sportscaster known as "Paché") and Juan Luis Castro, the son of the former Liberal senator Piedad Córdoba, who endorses him. Córdoba nowadays presides the Patriotic March movement, to which JL Castro doesn't belong.

Radical Change: The party of Germán Vargas Lleras will have to fight hard for its survival (parties need to collect around 450,000 votes in order to preserve the legal status). The top candidate is Carlos Fernando Galán, who ran for the mayoralty of Bogotá in 2011 and is the protégé of Vargas. Other candidates: Arturo Char (heir of a powerful clan; son of senator Fuad Char, brother of a former mayor of Barranquilla) and Antonio Guerra de la Espriella (member of a prominent family in Sucre and Córdoba departments).

Alternative Democratic Pole: PDA intends to reach 1 million of votes, after several social mobilisations in 2013, and the main positions in the list are occupied with people linked to protest movements. The top candidate is senator Jorge Robledo, well-known for his performances in parliamentary debates. In the second place is senator Alexander López (lawyer, syndicalist), followed by Mauricio Ospina (brother of Jorge Ospina, who was mayor of Cali). Candidate Iván Cepeda is son of an UP congressman killed in 1994; Alberto Castilla is a peasant leader from Cotatumbo (Norte de Santander) and had a protagonic role in a recent agrarian strike.

Green Alliance: The top candidate is Antonio Navarro Wolff (see above), also running Jorge Londoño (Green Party,formerly in the Liberal Party; ex-governor of Boyacá), Antonio López Herazo (he was president and co-founder of Corporación Arcoiris, a NGO initially focused on investigating the paramilitary and now on political action for peace), Danilo Villafañe (arhuaco leader), Claudia López (mainly known as political analyst) or Iván Ospina (former mayor of Cali with the PDA). 

Citizen Option (formerly National Integration Party, PIN): As it occurred with the PIN, the principal figures of the Citizen Option are inheritors of condemned parapolíticos (politicians with links to the paramilitary) and some Christian ("burned enough") shepherds. Strongholds will continue being Santander, the Cauca Valley and Sucre. On the top of the list is Angel Alirio Moreno, a lawyer from Santander department, followed by Doris Vega de Gil, wife of Luis Alberto Gil. The latter was the founder of the right-wing Civic People's Convergence and was condemned to 9 years in prison for 'parapolitics'.

Independent Movement of Absolute Renovation (MIRA) One of the weirdest Colombian parties founded and led by Carlos Baena and Alexandra Moreno Piravique. The 'Miraism', the principles of the 'movement', claims to be a transverse ideology focused on the people. Maria Luisa Piravique, mother of Alexandra, is leader of the Church of God Ministry of Jesus Christ International. Baena and Piravique are being investigated for illicit enrichment and money laundering. Alexandra Piravique will not seek reelection because she wants to devote herself to her family. The MIRA will have to struggle for its survival.

Some excellent interactive maps in La Silla Vacía.

"Questioned" or "controversial" candidates (corruption, parapolitics) by party and department: http://lasillavacia.com/historia/6540

FARC strength in 2012, just before the beginning of the peace talks: http://lasillavacia.com/atlas-politico/37103

[Velasco]

Last Gallup poll (Feb 11):

Juan Manuel Santos (Party of the U) 34.7%

Blank Vote 28.1%

Óscar Iván Zuluaga (Democratic Centre) 10.8%

Enrique Peñalosa (Green Alliance) 8.6%

Marta Lucía Ramírez (Conservative) 8.5%

Clara López Obregón (Alternative Democratic Pole) 4.5%

Aída Avella (Patriotic Union) 1.6%

http://www.elespectador.com/noticias/politica/ahora-habra-segunda-vuelta-articulo-474378

Juan Manuel Santos is clearly ahead, although he will have to face a second round if the blank vote in the election is as high as the polls say. In other case, he would win a majority of vote in the first round. The uribista vote is splitted between the candidates of the Democratic Centre and the Conservative Party. Pacho Santos, who was vicepresident with Uribe, has stated his support for Marta Lucía Ramírez and Zuluaga lacks absolutely of charisma. In the Green Alliance, if Peñalosa wins the primaries he won't be endorsed by Petro Progressives nor the members of the Green Party aligned with Antanas Mockus. The latter are represented in the contest by John Sudarsky -who wants to revive the 'Green Wave'- and Mockus said that he would run as his running mate if the senator wins the green primaries, although apparently the former Bogotá mayor moved back later. Peñalosa is too rightist and uribista for many members of the Alliance, but is the likely candidate.

"Smells like reelection" or "in the kingdom of the blind, the one-eyed is the king"

[Velasco]

Unsuccessful assassination attempt against Patriotic Union candidate.

Aida Abella's electoral caravan was attacked in the road between Fortul and Tame, in Arauca department and not far from the Venezuela border. That region is troubled and there is FARC activity, as well presence of "neoparamilitary" or "Bacrim" elements. President Santos announced an investigation and gave instructions in order that Aída Abella* "is protected by everything what is necessary". Zuluaga stated his "energetic rejection" and qualified the attempt as "intolerable". Previously Águilas Negras ("Black Eagles") and other criminal gang send menaces against the UP candidate, inciting her not to continue with the campaign.

*_{I have read this name written "Avella" and "Abella" and I'm not sure of the spelling. I'm inclined to think the latter is the correct version.}

According to El Espectador, Germán Vargas Lleras will announce today his candidacy for the Vicepresidency.

On the other hand, the Mission of Electoral Observation (MOE)*, released days ago a massive report with cartography on the risk of electoral fraud in the legislative elections. The number of municipalities under the menace of "illegal groups" (guerrilla or "neoparamilitary") has diminished, but the risk of fraud perpetrated by local caciques is increasing. The MOE identified 33 municipalities with "extreme risk" (see location in the interactive map linked below):

http://lasillavacia.com/historia/electores-riesgo-extremo-46619

*_{Google warns the MOE website might have been hacked.}
 

[Velasco]

Last polls for the presidential election:

Cifras y Conceptos (2/27):

Juan Manuel Santos (National Unity) 31%; Enrique Peñalosa (Green Alliance) 9%; Óscar Iván Zuluaga (Democratic Centre) 8%; Clara López Obregón (Democratic Alternative Pole) 7%; Marta Lucía Ramírez (Conservative) 4%; Aída Abella (Patriotic Union) 1%; Blank Vote 27%.

Ipsos (2/28): Santos 28%; Zuluaga 8%; Peñalosa 5%; López Obregón 4%; Ramírez 3%; Abella 2%; Blank Vote 24%.

Datexco (3/2): Santos 24.2%; Zuluaga 6.3%; Peñalosa 6.3%; López Obregón 4.9%; Ramírez 4.1%; Abella 3.6%; Blank Vote 41.5%.

Legislative elections will be held this weekend and the polls are not favourable for Juan Manuel Santos' Party of the U.

Cifras y Conceptos (2/27): Democratic Centre 20%; Liberal Party 17%; Party of the U 11%; Conservative Party 8%; Democratic Alternative Pole 6%; Green Alliance 6%; Radical Change 5%; MIRA 5%; Citizen Option 3%; Blank Vote 20%.

Datexco (3/2): Democratic Centre 23.4%; Liberal 13.6%; U 13.4%; PDA 10%; Conservative 7.3%; Radical Change 5.1%; Green Alliance 4.3%; MIRA 2.2%; Citizen Option 1.1%; Blank Vote 19.4%.

Percentages correspond to the senatorial election. According to these polls, Uribe's candidacy will make the Democratic Centre the first minority in the Congress. The first poll gives MIRA, a party which seems to be experiencing a 'miraculous' resurrection despite scandals, a percentage above the 3% threshold. According to the second poll, both MIRA and Citizen Option will have to struggle to reach said threshold and retain legal status as political parties. Citizen Option might perform better than the polls say, because it retains some clientelistic networks of the former PIN in Santander and the Cauca Valley, although its influence in the Caribbean region might have diminished.

[Velasco]

Key questions of the legislative elections (sources: Semana/ la Silla Vacía):

1) Uribe.

The million dollar question is how many seats is going to win the Uribe's Democratic Centre. If the Uribe list wins 20 or more seats in the Senate, becoming in the first minority, the outcome will have political impact. Aside the former president, many Democratic Centre candidates lack of political or parliamentary experience, but the Uribe block will be homogeneous and welded by a strong political conviction. The Democratic Centre may become in the main opposition to president Santos and the Peace Talks. If Uribe fails and his list only gets around 10 seats, the Democratic Centre will be the punch bag in the Congress. Polls suggest the first scenario; Uribe retains a big popularity and the campaign of the Democratic Centre -focused on clarifying that is this party, and not the U, the one that represents the uribismo- is being apparently successful.

2) Santos and the National Unity.

Three parties are backing Santos' reelection: The U, the Liberals and Radical Change. The main questions are: a) Will the National Unity coalition retain the majority in the Congress? and b) Which party is going to be the main force in the Santos coalition? If the National Unity doesn't win a majority, Santos will have to make alliances with other parties. On the other hand, the Liberal Party might be the main party in the National Unity after the election, with the U representation reduced to a half of its current size. This would drive to an alteration of power inside the National Unity and would have repercussions in an eventual liberal reunification and the Santos' succession in 2018, that would pass through an agreement between the ambitious Germán Vargas Lleras and the liberal leadership (César and Simón Gaviria).

3) The other parties.

In the Conservative Party, the question is how many seats are going to win the supporters of Marta Lucía Ramírez, the presidential candidate and closer to Uribe, and the pro-Santos faction led by senator Roberto Gerlein. If the Ramírez faction wins, the Conservative caciques around Gerlein will demand a high prize to stay on Santos' side and not to pass to Uribe's ranks.

The PDA relies in the prestige and popularity of its top candidate, Jorge Robledo, and the impulse of social movements. The Green Alliance isn't in a good position, with the controversy around Petro and the Peñalosa candidacy, but the popularity of Navarro Wolff might be enough to 'save' the party in the legislative elections by reaching the 3% threshold in the Senate. If both parties manage to obtain a decent representation, they might be important in order to pass initiatives round the peace process, specially if the National Unity doesn't get a majority.

The MIRA evangelical movement has made an effective campaign in order to counter the negative effect of some corruption scandals by mobilising its base. Citizen's Option, the heir of the far-right PIN which changed its name in order to avoid the 'parapolitcs' stigma, will rely in the strength of the Aguilar clan in the Santander department. Liutenant Colonel Hugo Aguilar was governor of Santander between 2004 and 2007; in 2011 he was imprisoned accused of links with the AUC paramilitary. Richard Aguilar, son of Hugo, was elected governor in 2012.

4) Parapolitics.

Citizen's Option (the former PIN) is not the only party with politicians involved in the 'parapolitics' scandal, which questioned the legitimacy of the 2006-2010 Parliament. As of 2009, the Radical Change Party had 8 congressmen involved (5 senators and 3 representatives), the Liberal Party 8 (3 and 5), the Conservatives 7 (3 and 4), the U 6 (4 and 2), Citizen's Convergence (which later joined the PIN) 5 (3 and 2), Democratic Colombia (liberal splinter founded by Uribe) 5 (4 and 1), Colombia Viva 3 and Alas Colombia 1 (the latter were another two uribista factions). In 2010 at least 35 senators had pending issues with the Justice or were relatives of convicts and defendants. At least 15 candidates in this elections seek to retain the seats of relatives condemned or detained by parapolitics, for example Doris Vega (top senatorial candidate of the Citizen's Option). Yahir Acuña, accused of parapolitics, is a singular case. He's running for the Chamber of Representatives in Sucre leading his own party, 100% Colombia (formerly Afrovides), in a formula including Efraín Cepeda (Conservative) for the Senate. Yahir Acuña is contesting the power of Sucre's governor, Julio César Guerra, in the department. From Sucre is Enilce López, La Gata, who a was very powerful PIN cacique in the department and nowadays is imprisoned.

5) Green Alliance primaries.

The primary elections in the Green Alliance are lacking the relevance of the 2010 between Antanas Mockus and Enrique Peñalosa. The question is not who is going to win, but how many votes can collect Peñalosa (he got 490,000 in 2010, whereas Mockus got 822,000) and if the voting can impulse Peñalosa's presidential campaign.


Current composition of the Colombian Congress:

Senate (102) 100 members elected from a national single list and 2 in a special list for the indigenous and Afro-Colombian minorities.

Party of the U 28; Conservative (C) 22; Liberal Party (L) 18; National Integration Party (PIN) 9; Radical Change (CR) 8; Alternative Democratic Pole (PDA) 9; Green Party (PV) 5; MIRA 3; Indigenous Social Alliance (ASI) 1; Indigenous Authorities of Colombia (AIC) 1.

Chamber of Representatives (165) 161 members are elected in territorial divisions, the 32 departments and the Capital District (Bogotá). The 4 remaining seats are elected from special circumscriptions: Afro-Colombians (2), Indigenous (1) and Colombians abroad (1).

Party of the U 48; Liberal 38; Conservative 36; Radical Change 16; PIN 11; PDA 5; Green Party 3; Others 8.

[Velasco]

Provisional results:

http://www.registraduria.gov.co/99SE/DSE9999999_L2.htm

Senate:

Party of the U:  21 seats (15.6%)

Democratic Centre: 19 seats (14.3%)

Conservative: 19 seats (13.6%)

Liberal: 17 seats (12.2%)

Radical Change: 9 seats (7%)

Green Alliance: 5 seats (3.9%)

Alternative Democratic Pole: 5 seats (3.8%)

Citizen's Option: 5 seats (3.7%)

MIRA: 0 seats (2.3%)

Indigenous seats:

MAIS 1 seat (0.32%)

ASI 1 seat (0.23%)

Älvaro Uribe, proclaimed the great winner of the election. The National Unity Coalition fails to get a majority (47 of 102 seats), Conservatives and minority parties hold the balance of the chamber. The Democratic Centre wins in Bogotá,  Antioquía (Medellín), Central Colombia (Cundinamarca, Huila, Tolima) and some departments in the Coffee Belt, Los Llanos (Arauca, Casanare) and Amazonas regions. Party of the U wins in most of the Caribbean region, Cauca Valley, Chocó and Meta (Maritza Martínez). The Conservative Party takes the lead in Atlántico (Roberto Gerlein), Nariño (Myriam Paredes), Norte de Santander and Boyacá. Liberals win Santander (Horacio Serpa), Cauca, Putumayo and San Andrés y Providencia. Citizen's Option wins Sucre and comes second in Santander (Nerthink Mauricio Aguilar gets more personal vote than Horacio Serpa). The MIRA movement is taking the lead in the vote abroad, followed by the Democratic Centre, but fails to reach the 3% threshold.

Top candidates: Party of the U (Musa Fayad), Democratic Centre (Closed List), Conservatives (Roberto Gerlein), Liberal Party (Horacio Serpa), Radical Change (Arturo Char), Green Alliance (Claudia López gets more votes than Navarro Wolff), PDA (Jorge Robledo), Citizen's Option (Nerthink Mauricio Aguilar).

Chamber of Representatives:

Liberal Party: 39 seats (14.1%)

Party of the U: 37 seats (16.1%)

Conservative Party: 27 seats (13.2%)

Radical Change Party: 17 seats (7.7%)

Democratic Centre: 12 seats (9.5%)

Green Alliance: 6 seats (3.4%)

Citizen's Option: 6 seats (3.3%)

Alternative Democratic Pole: 3 seats (2.9%)

MIRA Movement: 3 seats (2.9%)

Others: 4 seats (indigenous parties win 2 seats and two provincial lists get other 2)

Afro-Colombian seats: FUNECO wins the 2 seats.

Indigenous seat: AICO gets the seat, plus other won in La Guajira department.

The National Unitiy Coalition holds a majority in the Chamber. The MIRA movement wins 3 seats but, failing to reach 3% in the senatorial election, the elected representatives will have the status of 'political minority'. Yahir Acuña's 100% Colombia wins in Sucre with 126,000 votes, but the official site doesn't give seats for this party (and I don't know why). The Patriotic Union (UP) gets 0.7% nationwide.

Turnout 43.6%.

[Velasco]

Not much of a victory for Uribe, especially since his party didn't come in first place.

Uribe was ahead of the U in the first stages of the count, but finally the U took the lead as the vote in the regions was counted. Santos said he was happy, because the election was "the quieter and the safer" in recent times and his party retained the first place "against all predictions". The president congratulated the Democratic Centre for its "decent" second place and said: "Senator Uribe, I hope we can leave all hate aside".

It looks like a relative victory, both for Santos and Uribe. The National Unity loses the majority in the Senate, but it seems a majority of the Conservative congressmen support Santos' reelection, at least by the moment. Also, Santos can maneuver in the Senate with the other groups and has a comfortable majority in the Chamber of Representatives. On the other hand, the result of the Uribe party sets a (relatively) strong opposition in the Senate, whereas the Democratic Centre is somewhat marginal in the Chamber of Representatives. This is a change with regard to the previous Congress, when groups backing Santos had more than 80% of the seats. Anyway, it doesn't look like the legislative election is going to change anything in the presidential race, with Santos clearly ahead and Zuluaga, Ramírez and Peñalosa struggling for the second place in order to have a chance to fight a hopeless runoff against the president.

As for the Colombian left and progressives, the result is quite bad. The PDA lost 3 senators and only got 540,000 votes. Jorge Robledo's personal vote was 191,000, still one of the highest results for a single senator nationwide, but in the party they were hoping around 300,000. The PDA also lost a representative with a rather poor result. The Green Alliance retained the same 5 senators that the Green Party won in 2010, but Jorge Londoño (a former governor of Boyacá) lost his seat. Also, the son of Piedad Córdoba and other liberal candidates close to the left weren't elected. The UP result was predictable.

Aside the typical inconveniences (clientelistic machines, fraud, menaces, etc) that prevent the groups in the left competing in equality of conditions in many regions, it's clear that internal divisions -and perhaps the lack of a solid project- harm them. The Green Alliance looks like a madhouse Perhaps they should consider the union of everything between the centre-leaning Greens and the left-wing parties in order to build an alternative to the Santos/Uribe duopoly, although it has to be difficult to deal with the right faction of the Greens that Peñalosa represents. On the other hand, it's obvious that Colombia is a country leaning to centre-right, so it's unlikely that a PDA-like party has a chance of winning a presidential election in the foreseeable future. The only good news for me is that Claudia López (Green Alliance) and Iván Cepeda (PDA) won a place in the Senate.

Green Alliance Primary (63% of the booths reported ):

Enrique Peñalosa 48.1%; Camilo Romero 16.6%; John Sudarsky 8.5%

Likely more than 3 million of voters took part in the Green contest, with Peñalosa getting 1.4 million by the moment. The primaries were open and it's presumable that some centre-right voters backed the winner. Peñalosa thinks the yesterday's outcome won't hurt his chances to run against Santos, because the presidential election is the one where the political machinery has a less important role. He assures elected senators Navarro Wolff and Claudia López are not against him (relationship is cool). "What Colombians need it's not a question of left or right. The great discussion is if we want a government were people still come for political recommendation", he stated.

[Velasco]

Elections for the Andean Parliament, a legislature whose character is only consultative and is elected in the  member countries of the Andean Community -currently Bolivia, Ecuador, Perú and Colombia-, were held on Sunday in coincidence with the legislative election. Results were as follows (percentages on votes cast*):

Conservative Party 9.3%; Green Alliance 8%; PDA 7.1%; Citizen's Option 3%; UP 2.5%; 100% Colombia 1.4%; Blank Ballots 35.6%; Not Marked Ballots 28%; Null Ballots 5%. Turnout 31%.

More than 50% of the valid votes were blank ballots and, according to National Registrar Carlos Ariel López, the National Electoral Council may rule a new election must be called.  Later, the Constitutional Court will have to make a pronouncement on the question. The Andean Parliament is considered an useless and inefficient institution and, apparently, the governments of the member countries decided its suppression months ago.

*Vote percentages of the legislative elections (Senate and Chamber) in the official website are calculated on votes cast as well. "Abnormal" levels of not marked and null ballots may be symptoms of electoral fraud. According to MOE, low figures in null votes may indicate coercion and high figures a manipulation oriented to lower the vote for certain candidates. The high level in not marked ballots may be consequence of the bad design of the ballots or product of manipulation. Risk areas include the SW and the Pacific Coast; most of Sucre and parts of the departments of the Caribbean region; and NE areas next to the Venezuela border (La Guajira, Arauca and Catatumbo). This time the perceived risk of fraud was more associated with economic interests and corruption, whereas risk associated with violence and 'illegal actors' influence is diminishing.

Nationwide figures of blank vote, not marked and null ballots in the legislative elections:

Senate: Blank**5.2%; Not Marked 5.9%; Null 10.4%.

Chamber of Representatives: Blank** 5.8%; Not Marked 3.4%;  Null 12.3%.

**Excluding special constituencies.

[Velasco]

The Green Alliance primaries have been a success. The number of voters can exceed 4 million, in sharp contrast with the result of the Green Alliance in the legislative election (564,000 votes, with the provisional count halted at 98.4%). Peñalosa supporters estimate the former mayor of Bogotá got more than 2 million of votes, a figure comparable to the support for Uribe's list in the senatorial election.

Provisional results (79.7% reported):

Enrique Peñalosa 47.7% (1.743 million of votes)

Camilo Romero 16.76% (613,000 votes)

John Sudarsky 8.53% (312,000 votes)

Votes cast: 3,653,774

http://www.registraduria.gov.co/iniconsulta2014.htm

The paradox is that Enrique Peñalosa, who is not loved by most of his party and whose campaign had little impact in the media, achieved an extraordinary result, exceeding by far the voting Antanas Mockus (the 'Green Wave') and his own record in the 2010 Green Primary. The conclusion of Juanita Ortega, edtor of La Silla Vacía, is that Peñalosa was the great victor of the election.

It is clear that many of the voters who supported Peñalosa are not strict supporters of the Green Alliance; the question, says El Espectador, is who are these voters and what was moving them. John Sudarsky, who will not back Peñalosa, is round stating that Peñalosa didn't win with the votes of the Green Alliance and  "he's going to seek the alliance with Uribe because Uribe chose him". However, a quick analysis of the provisional results shows that Peñalosa had a strong performance in places where Uribe was weak (Peñalosa doubled Uribe's voting in the Caribbean region), whereas he didn't had a great result in Uribe's strongholds (Uribe's voting doubled Peñalosa's in Antioquia), according to La Silla Vacía. So the conclusion is that not all uribistas backed Peñalosa and not all of Peñalosa's supporters are uribistas. Senator elect Claudia López will back the winner of the contest, although she's not presumably enthusiastic with her former political mentor -López grew appart when Peñalosa decided to run for the Liberals-, stating that Peñalosa's victory was legitimate and cannot be questioned when the candidate's voting was four times the Green Alliance's in the Senate. "The only who can defeat the candidates of uribismo is Peñalosa", she concludes.

If polls say that Peñalosa beats Zuluaga (Sudarsky thinks that Uribe wants to get rid of him) and Ramírez, it's possible that voters in the right will go behind him. Although Peñalosa stated that he will back peace talks in La Habana as they stand now, the candidate is perceived as a strong man with little proclivity to yield to pressure. Also, he might attract those centrist voters who dislike Santos because of clientelism and a perceived bad management. In that case, I wonder what will do the progressive voters of the Green Alliance (backing the lesser evil?, abstention?).

Temporarily changed the title so that maybe we will get some more views/discussion.

It's OK for me. If I have time, I'll post what media and analysts say about other issues of this election. I suspect there will be a delay with the final results of the legislative election, perhaps a couple of weeks. The Democratic Centre might win an additional seat and several seats in the Chamber of Representatives are not allocated.

This infographics in Semana has some changes with regard to the allocation of the seats in the Chamber of Representatives given in the official website on election night. 100% Colombia, a party led by Yahir Acuña, would get 3 seats: 2 in Sucre and 1 in Casanare. The party didn't run for the Senate and only got 1.1% nationwide, contesting only a few departments. Despite Acuña's party didn't reach 3% in the Chamber, 100% Colombia might join Fundación Ébano (FUNECO), which won the 2 seats in the Afro-Colombian special constituency, in order to have party legal status. Acuña might lead a 5-seat block.

[Velasco]

Leading party by department in the congressional elections.



The world map represents vote abroad. Vote percentages calculated on valid votes, excluding null and not marked ballots, according to the provisional results. For seat allocation see the infographics in a previous post. Not included Afro-Colombian and Indigenous special constituencies.

Nationwide valid vote percentages would be as follows:

Senate: Party of the U 19.11%; Democratic Centre 17.52%; Conservative Party 16.66%; Liberal Party 14.98%;  Radical Change 8.54%; Green Alliance 4.84%; Alternative Democratic Pole 4.64%; Citizen's Option 4.52%; MIRA 2.8%; Blank Votes 6.4%.

Chamber: Party of the U 19.61%; Liberal Party 17.26%; Conservative Party 16.09%; Democratic Centre 11.57%; Radical Change 9.46%; Green Alliance 4.09%; Citizen's Option 3.99%; Alternative Democratic Pole 3.54%; MIRA 3.51%; 100% Colombia 1.35%; Patriotic Union 0.85%; Blank Votes 7.04%.

[Velasco]

The Patriotic Union candidate has dropped out to become the VP candidate of the Alternative Democratic Pole.

There was a debate inside the Pole between the supporters of Aída Abella as vicepresidential candidate and others whom backed Rodolfo Arango, an academic and former judge of the Constitutional Court who got the PDA's sixth highest voting to the Senate (and wasn't elected, because the Pole only got 5). Supporters of a negotiation with the UP included senator elect Iván Cepeda, among others; supporters of placing Arango included senator Jorge Robledo and Carlos Gaviria. The voting in the PDA's Executive Direction was Abella 12, Arango 8.

This PDA-UP presidential candidacy has no real chances to get the 2nd Round and apparently reflects a bet for a medium term strategy of unity in the left (of which this alliance would be a first step), instead of seeking a viable presidential formula in the short term.

[Velasco]

Datexco poll released in El Tiempo (3/16):

http://www.eltiempo.com/Multimedia/infografia/encuestapresidencial/

Juan Manuel Santos (U) 25.5%; Enrique Peñalosa (Green) 17.1%; Óscar Iván Zuluaga (CD) 14.6%; Clara López Obregón (PDA) 10.7%; Marta Lucía Ramírez (C) 7.7%

Second Round matches: Santos 44.4/ Ramírez 33.7; Santos 45.7/ Zuluaga 28.3; Peñalosa 40.4/ Santos 37.1; Santos 43/ López 32.1

I'd be cautious with the polls, given the precedents of 2010 presidential and 2014 legislative elections. However, it looks like Enrique Peñalosa is well positioned to fight the runoff against Santos. Will his momentum last?

Enrique Peñalosa has nominated Isabel Segovia, a qualified independent professional and a complete unknown in the politics' world, as running mate. Segovia (aged 40) has been teacher, educational consultant and viceminister of Education in Uribe's administration. Despite having been a public servant with Uribe, apparently she's not a supporter of the former president but people in the progressive faction in the Green Alliance is somewhat reticent with Peñalosa's choice. There were rumours on former senator Camilo Romero, who placed a distant second in the GA Primary, as vicepresidential candidate. Peñalosa wanted a woman with no links with the Bogotá elite as running mate, to counter the profile of the partners of the National Unity ticket. Both Santos and Vargas Lleras are cachacos and members of the Bogotá upper-class, whereas Isabel Segovia's family is from Cartagena de Indias (a good family as well). Peñalosa's choice reinforces the independent, management-focused and 'antipolitical' traits of his candidacy.

[Velasco]

President Santos confirmed on Wednesday the removal of the mayor of Bogotá, Gustavo Petro, disregarding the precautionary measures recommended by the Inter-American Commision of Human Rights (IACHR).

"I have received official communication by the General Attorney of the Nation requesting me to decree the dismissal of the Mayor of Bogota, Gustavo Petro Urrego, and I must come from conformity with the Constitution and the laws ", said Santos in an address to the country. The reason given by the president to reject IACHR recommendations is that Colombian Justice acted in a "transparent, effective and opportune way".

This decision gives again the Petro affair a protagonic role in the campaign. The popularity of the removed mayor of Bogotá raised temporarily after what was perceived as an "arbitrary" and "disproportionate" action by the General Attorney, Alejandro Ordóñez. Nevertheless that effect was going flat as time passed and had no effect in the outcome of the legislative elections in the Colombian capital, where uribismo and supporters of the dismissal won widely.

In Santos' coalition they are a majority those who were in opposition to Petro, including the Party of the U and Cambio Radical, whereas Horacio Serpa and others in the Liberal Party opposed the recall. In Santos' decision would have weighed the fear of being attacked by nationalistic sectors which think Petro has had chances to defend himself and respecting the IACHR recommendations would suppose, in words of former Vice-President Pacho Santos, sending "a message of which Colombian Justice is not of use, devastates institutionality and would be a collapse of the judicial system". However, backing Petro's removal means that a new mayoral election must be called and uribistas -whose candidate is precisely Pacho Santos- have many chances of winning. Furthermore, Santos may lose the support of voters in the left -far from being enthusiastic, but supporters of the peace talks- if he has to fight a runoff.

Green Alliance candidate, Enrique Peñalosa, a major critic of Petro's management in Bogotá, stated that it's not democratic that a leader like Petro is deprived of his political rights, without being involved in corruption and without a verdict of guilty.

[Velasco]

Interactive maps with the results of the congressional elections at departmental and municipal levels:

http://lasillavacia.com/content/asi-votaron-los-municipios-y-los-departamentos-al-congreso-46934

The author, Javier Moreno, runs a blog where you can find more interesting maps. For example this one:

http://finiterank.github.io/informe-electoral/diversidad-politica.html

Recent polls show that little has changed in the presidential race after the legislative elections, downgrading the euphoria around Peñalosa.

Gallup: Santos (U) 32.5%; Zuluaga (CD) 15.6%; Peñalosa (Green) 11.3%; Ramírez (Con) 9.3%; López (PDA) 8.6%.

http://es.scribd.com/doc/213765983/Cuarta-Encuesta-Presidencial-Campan%CC%83a-2014-Gallup

Ipsos: Santos 24%; Zuluaga 9%; López 9%; Peñalosa 8%; Ramírez 4%.

Forgot to mention that Labour minister and former liberal candidate Rafael Pardo was appointed temporarily as mayor of Bogotá. Progressives Movement can propose a short list to the president in order that Santos pick one to be the substitute mayor until the next election.

[Velasco]

This is the official ballot of the presidential election, with the five official tickets and a box for the blank vote (similar to the NOTA option):

I've found via Facebook that the Green Alliance and Claudia López, who has became the political and programmatical coordinator of Peñalosa's campaign, are resorting to populism against Santos using the 'Bolivarian' scarecrow: "Danger. Santos, in the worst Venezuelan style, wants to turn Colombia into a banana republic ("republiqueta" in the original version)".

I expected something more 'edgy' from the rising star of the Green Alliance, a woman who collected what Colombians call "opinion vote", that is to say, the support of well-informed and concerned voters -mostly urban- not influenced by patronage and political machines.

In the best "divide and rule" tradition, Santos has collected the support from some personalities of the old Green Party like Lucho Garzón and Alfonso Prada -a former Green congressman who advises Santos' campaign-. As well the president stated that he met with local elected officials and representatives of women, Afro-Colombians and other social statements: what he calls "the real Green Party".

The 2010 election witnessed a dirty campaign focused on a supposed connivance between the Green candidate Antanas Mockus and the deceased Hugo Chávez, which I'd say it rendered Santos a good profit. There were some offensive affiches, of which Santos' campaign denied the authorship, with Mockus showing some part of his anatomy to the Comandante. I prefer posting this one as example:

Chávez says the house of cards of the Bolivarian revolution has fallen, but he has a Joker (Mockus) in the hole. In the following sketch, Chávez is looking for a "Colombian ball" to play baseball (that means continuing his "tyrant game"). In the last cartoon Mockus says to the Comandante "you know that I don't believe in God" and Hugo replies: "How clever, chamo!"