Pissed Rand 2016: Running for Prez as an Indy! :O

[defe07]

Let's assume that Rand Paul is leading for most of the season the Republican nomination count. The Convention arrives and a repeat of the 1912 version pops up, when establishment Republican delegates turn their backs on him and nominate Chris Christie. Rand Paul decides to run as an independent.

The race is between Paul (I) v. Christie (R) v. Hillary (D).

How would the race go? A map? How do the electoral and popular vote go? Smiley

[BaconBacon96]

Fmr. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton/Virginia Senator Mark Warner- 357 EVs
New Jersey Governor Chris Christie/Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker- 157 EVs
Kentucky Senator Rand Paul/Doctor Ben Carson- 24 EVs

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Indiana would go Paul/Carson thank you very much as he's the rightful nominee.

[IceSpear]

I don't see a way this isn't a complete disaster for Republicans. Even Rand taking 2-3% would pretty much sink their chances at a win, but due to his dad's following he's likely to get higher. It's possible Republicans could abandon Christie en masse for Rand, but even then, there's a floor where a candidate on the ballot as an (R) simply won't fall below, probably around 10%.  Then there's the nightmare scenario where Christie/Rand split their vote fairly evenly and end up giving Hillary a win in almost every single state. Probably the best case scenario for them is Rand fans realizing that they're only helping Hillary and abandoning him at the very end for Christie.

I think, most likely: Rand won't carry any states, but he'll probably get somewhere between 5-10% of the vote. Since pretty much all of his vote total is from would be Christie voters, it produces a huge Hillary landslide with Dem wins in very unlikely states in a two way race.

Clinton/Warner - 456, 51.7%
Christie/Martinez - 82, 39.6%
Paul/Amash - 0, 8.2%

[SPC]

Close race, Paul fades into obscurity as Election Day approaches:

Clinton 48.0% 294 EV
Christie 47.0% 244 EV
Paul 5.0% 0 EV

Paul makes a more Perot-like impact, running a fully-funded campaign with debate participation:

Clinton 43.9% 300 EV
Christie 39.6% 219 EV
Paul 16.5% 19 EV

[defe07]

Here's my map. I don't know if you guys would agree or not, but let's assume Rand has a decent campaign with tons of media coverage and debate inclusion.

[free my dawg]

Will only serve as a spoiler. 400-vote landslide for Hillary.

[DKrol]

Fmr. Secretary of State Hillary R. Clinton/Governor Andrew M. Cuomo (D) - 400
Governor Christopher J. Christie/Senator Susan Collins (R) - 118
Senator Randall H. Paul/Congressman Justin A. Amish (I) - 20

[PJ]

Indiana would go Paul/Carson thank you very much as he's the rightful nominee.

You make two false assumptions:

1. That Paul is the rightful nominee.
2. That Indiana votes for the "rightful" nominee.

[ClassicElectionEnthusiast]

I tend to agree with those who suggest this scenario might be similar to 1992-vintage Perot; only with Rand Paul managing to gain some electoral college votes (not enough to win; of course)

If that happened (Rand going 3rd party/independent) and something like deke07's prediction played out (resulting in Rand getting 59 EV's); the Democrat nominee (whom I'm assuming is Hillary) finishes just short of 270. Depending on how the 2014 midterms shook out; this could be a very interesting scenario.

[Skill and Chance]

The worst case for Hillary would be 1992.  The best case would be 1912. 

[MyRescueKittehRocks]

Indiana would go Paul/Carson thank you very much as he's the rightful nominee.

You make two false assumptions:

1. That Paul is the rightful nominee.
2. That Indiana votes for the "rightful" nominee.

No. These are rather reasonable assumptions.

[Flake]

Indiana would go Paul/Carson thank you very much as he's the rightful nominee.

You make two false assumptions:

1. That Paul is the rightful nominee.
2. That Indiana votes for the "rightful" nominee.

No. These are rather reasonable assumptions.

I will promise you that Indiana will not vote for someone who chooses, out of all people, Ben Carson, as his running mate.

[MadmanMotley]

Indiana would go Paul/Carson thank you very much as he's the rightful nominee.

You make two false assumptions:

1. That Paul is the rightful nominee.
2. That Indiana votes for the "rightful" nominee.

No. These are rather reasonable assumptions.

I will promise you that Indiana will not vote for someone who chooses, out of all people, Ben Carson, as his running mate.

As someone who lives here, yes they would.

[IceSpear]

Indiana would go Paul/Carson thank you very much as he's the rightful nominee.

You make two false assumptions:

1. That Paul is the rightful nominee.
2. That Indiana votes for the "rightful" nominee.

No. These are rather reasonable assumptions.

I will promise you that Indiana will not vote for someone who chooses, out of all people, Ben Carson, as his running mate.

As someone who lives here, yes they would.

Yeah, no Democrat would ever stand a chance in modern Indiana politics. Just ask Evan Bayh, Joe Donnelly, and Barack Obama.

[MadmanMotley]

Indiana would go Paul/Carson thank you very much as he's the rightful nominee.

You make two false assumptions:

1. That Paul is the rightful nominee.
2. That Indiana votes for the "rightful" nominee.

No. These are rather reasonable assumptions.

I will promise you that Indiana will not vote for someone who chooses, out of all people, Ben Carson, as his running mate.

As someone who lives here, yes they would.

Yeah, no Democrat would ever stand a chance in modern Indiana politics. Just ask Evan Bayh, Joe Donnelly, and Barack Obama.

Or ask our Republican Super majority in both houses, Indiana swung hard right compared to 2008. Evan Bayh hasn't been elected to anything in Indiana since 2004, Donnelly was running against a candidate connected to Akin, and if anything is barely to the left of Fmr. Senator Lugar.
McCain was a weak candidate that barely lost Indiana in a Dem wave year against a Dem superstar.

Most likely it'd be a three way race in Indiana since most people here like Rand, we generally vote moderate, and Indiana never voted for Clinton even in both elections where he was heavily favored. The Clinton last name here only rings well with some democrats.

[IceSpear]

Indiana would go Paul/Carson thank you very much as he's the rightful nominee.

You make two false assumptions:

1. That Paul is the rightful nominee.
2. That Indiana votes for the "rightful" nominee.

No. These are rather reasonable assumptions.

I will promise you that Indiana will not vote for someone who chooses, out of all people, Ben Carson, as his running mate.

As someone who lives here, yes they would.

Yeah, no Democrat would ever stand a chance in modern Indiana politics. Just ask Evan Bayh, Joe Donnelly, and Barack Obama.

Or ask our Republican Super majority in both houses, Indiana swung hard right compared to 2008. Evan Bayh hasn't been elected to anything in Indiana since 2004, Donnelly was running against a candidate connected to Akin, and if anything is barely to the left of Fmr. Senator Lugar.
McCain was a weak candidate that barely lost Indiana in a Dem wave year against a Dem superstar.

Most likely it'd be a three way race in Indiana since most people here like Rand, we generally vote moderate, and Indiana never voted for Clinton even in both elections where he was heavily favored. The Clinton last name here only rings well with some democrats.

Bayh would easily be elected to any office today, and would've won in 2010 had he ran.

Mourdock was a horrible candidate, but so is Ben Carson.

[Mr. Illini]

Those who are treating this as a typical independent run are underestimating the anger on the part of the Tea Party and conservative wing should this happen, IMO.

Rand splits the vote and Hillary slides to victory.

Clinton/O'Malley 424 / Christie/Walker 66 / Paul/Cruz 48

[Potatoe]

Those who are treating this as a typical independent run are underestimating the anger on the part of the Tea Party and conservative wing should this happen, IMO.

Rand splits the vote and Hillary slides to victory.

Clinton/O'Malley 424 / Christie/Walker 66 / Paul/Cruz 48

Probs the most likely scenario.

[MATTROSE94]

Those who are treating this as a typical independent run are underestimating the anger on the part of the Tea Party and conservative wing should this happen, IMO.

Rand splits the vote and Hillary slides to victory.

Clinton/O'Malley 424 / Christie/Walker 66 / Paul/Cruz 48

I think that Rand Paul would also carry Arkansas, South Carolina, Mississippi and Texas as well and push Christie to under 40% or the vote in Kansas and Clinton to under 40% of the vote in Missouri and Georgia.