New Election Timeline from 1964

[True Democrat]

1964:
In a surprising move, Johnson decides not to seek the Presidency.  He steps aside for unknown reason.  After early fights from RFK, Edmund Muskie, George Wallace, and Eugene McCarthy, Humphrey cruises to an easy victory in the primaries.  Humphrey chooses former rival Muskie for the bottom of the ticket.  For the Republicans, Goldwater is nominated, who picks William Miller for Vice-President.  In the general election, Goldwater runs a great campaign and Humphrey runs a mediocre one.  However, with JFK's assassination, Humphrey still cruises to an easy victory.

Humphrey/Muskie: 56%, 338 electoral votes
Goldwater/Miller: 43%, 200 electoral votes

[True Democrat]

1968:
Humphrey shows himself to be the "President of the People" as he is nicknamed.  His administration's focus is on civil rights, where he meets great success.  His approval rating is about 55% come election day.   The Republicans, who face an uphill battle, nominate darkhorse candidate Texas Senator John G. Tower who chooses no-name Utah Representative Sherman P. Lloyd as his runningmate.  On election, Humphrey is expected to get 54-56%, but defies expectations and even wins Kansas.

Humphrey/Muskie: 57.5%, 381 electoral votes
Tower/Lloyd: 42%, 157 electoral votes

[True Democrat]

1972:
Humphrey ends his Presidency on a high note, as he signs a bill into law that mainly benefits Southerners.  Muskie easily gets the nomination, although the Southern primaries are closely contested between Governor Carter of Georgia and Governor Wallace of Alabama.  Muskie ends up picking Carter as his runningmate.  For the Republicans, 37 year-old Senator Jack Kemp receives the nomination and picks Wyoming Governor Stanley Hathaway.  Kemp presents himself as a moderate, but on election day it is a virtual tie.  It all comes down to Arkansas, where Muskie eeks out a victory by 10,000 votes.

Muskie/Carter: 49.5%, 273 electoral votes
Kemp/Hathaway: 49.25%, 265 electoral votes

[Jake]

Awesome, any timeline that has HHH winning the presidency is ok in my book.

[No more McShame]

1972:
Humphrey ends his Presidency on a high note, as he signs a bill into law that mainly benefits Southerners.  Muskie easily gets the nomination, although the Southern primaries are closely contested between Governor Carter of Georgia and Governor Wallace of Alabama.  Muskie ends up picking Carter as his runningmate.  For the Republicans, 37 year-old Senator Jack Kemp receives the nomination and picks Wyoming Governor Stanley Hathaway.  Kemp presents himself as a moderate, but on election day it is a virtual tie.  It all comes down to Arkansas, where Muskie eeks out a victory by 10,000 votes.

Muskie/Carter: 49.5%, 273 electoral votes
Kemp/Hathaway: 49.25%, 265 electoral votes

In your scenario, Kemp is popular enough in NY to be elected to the Senate, yet can't carry it in the election?

[True Democrat]

1972:
Humphrey ends his Presidency on a high note, as he signs a bill into law that mainly benefits Southerners.  Muskie easily gets the nomination, although the Southern primaries are closely contested between Governor Carter of Georgia and Governor Wallace of Alabama.  Muskie ends up picking Carter as his runningmate.  For the Republicans, 37 year-old Senator Jack Kemp receives the nomination and picks Wyoming Governor Stanley Hathaway.  Kemp presents himself as a moderate, but on election day it is a virtual tie.  It all comes down to Arkansas, where Muskie eeks out a victory by 10,000 votes.

Muskie/Carter: 49.5%, 273 electoral votes
Kemp/Hathaway: 49.25%, 265 electoral votes

In your scenario, Kemp is popular enough in NY to be elected to the Senate, yet can't carry it in the election?

Humphrey led a mini liberal revolution.  Muskie wins New York by about 5 points.  Al Gore didn't win his home state and neither did Dewey or Wilkie.

[No more McShame]

ok, so NY became a left-wing loony paradise a generation earlier than it really did.

[Rob]

Nice work, True Democrat. It's interesting.

[skybridge]

1964:
In a surprising move, Johnson decides not to seek the Presidency.  He steps aside for unknown reason.  After early fights from RFK, Edmund Muskie, George Wallace, and Eugene McCarthy, Humphrey cruises to an easy victory in the primaries.  Humphrey chooses former rival Muskie for the bottom of the ticket.  For the Republicans, Goldwater is nominated, who picks William Miller for Vice-President.  In the general election, Goldwater runs a great campaign and Humphrey runs a mediocre one.  However, with JFK's assassination, Humphrey still cruises to an easy victory.

Humphrey/Muskie: 56%, 338 electoral votes
Goldwater/Miller: 43%, 200 electoral votes

No way! If RFK participated in the primaries, he would have been the undisputed winner. Perhaps he would even have crushed Goldwater worse than Johnson, since he would have created an even larger surge of patriotism through JFK nostalgia.

[YRABNNRM]

1964:
In a surprising move, Johnson decides not to seek the Presidency.  He steps aside for unknown reason.  After early fights from RFK, Edmund Muskie, George Wallace, and Eugene McCarthy, Humphrey cruises to an easy victory in the primaries.  Humphrey chooses former rival Muskie for the bottom of the ticket.  For the Republicans, Goldwater is nominated, who picks William Miller for Vice-President.  In the general election, Goldwater runs a great campaign and Humphrey runs a mediocre one.  However, with JFK's assassination, Humphrey still cruises to an easy victory.

Humphrey/Muskie: 56%, 338 electoral votes
Goldwater/Miller: 43%, 200 electoral votes

No way! If RFK participated in the primaries, he would have been the undisputed winner. Perhaps he would even have crushed Goldwater worse than Johnson, since he would have created an even larger surge of patriotism through JFK nostalgia.

So write your own timeline

[True Democrat]

1976:
As the campaign of 1976 starts, Muskie's approval is hovering around 50%, but he is wildly popular inside the Democratic party.  However, he drops out due to health and family problems, which is expected.  Carter easily wins the nomination, as he has Muskie's support.  The Republican frontrunner if Governor Ronald Reagan of California, however 2 days before Super Tuesday, he makes a remark saying he agreed with President Muskie completely on the lack of military force in the Middle East to stop the oil embargo.  This is a huge issue for the Republicans, and for the rest of campaign it is a tight race between Reagan and Minority Leader Gerald Ford of Michigan.  Senator Rockfeller also jumps in midway through the campaign to take a few states.

Here's the map of the Republican primaries:
Blue: Reagan
Red: Ford
Green: Rockefeller

Going into Super Tuesday, this is what the map looks like:


This is the final primary map:



Reagan goes into the primaries leading, however, with Rockefeller's delegates and the Super delegate, Ford pulls off a narrow victory.

In the general election, Ford runs an excellent campaign.  He quickly paints Carter as a Dixiecrat.  The only place outside the South Carter makes any headway is the Upper Midwest.  Ford picks Bob Dole (who promises never to run for President) as his Vice-President.  Carter picks Minnesota Governer (I know, not Senator) Walter Mondale.  Also running is independent candidate Eugene McCarthy.  Carter does better on election day than expected, but still loses by a sizeable margin.

Ford/Dole: 53%, 313 electoral votes
Carter/Mondale: 45%, 225 electoral votes

[True Democrat]

1980:
Ford is incredibly popular.  His approval is in the 70s, and the only Democrat to enter the primary is Gary Hart of Colorado.  He wins every state in the primary.  For his running mate, nobody will run with him.  The highest official he can find is Representative James Weaver of Oregon.  Hart runs a very libertarian style campaign, which helps him out West.  Furthermore, in many western states, except California, there are huge economic problems, which many Westerners blame Ford for.  Independent candidate George Wallace runs picks
Strom Thurmond as his running mate.  On election day, Ford does even better than expected, especially in the Northeast.  Out West, however, Hart also does better than expected.

Ford/Dole: 63%, 437 electoral votes
Hart/Weaver: 26%, 42 electoral votes
Wallace/Thurmond: 10%, 59 electoral votes

[True Democrat]

1984:
Ford's popularity has decreased.  As he leave the Presidency, hi approval is around 55%.  The main candidates in the Democritc primaries are Jesse Jackson, Al Gore, and Robert F. Kennedy (I know, he never died).  Kennedy easily gets the nomination after Gore's Southern Strategy fails with Jackson in the race.  Here's the map:

Red: RFK
Blue: Gore
Green: Jackson



For the Republicans, another heated primary takes place between George H. W. Bush, the Senator from Maine, Former Governor Ronald Reagan of California, and Senator John Danforth of Missouri.  After finishing a dismal third in Iowa, Senator Bush drops out, but Governor David Treen of Louisiana enters the race. Treen does much better than expected, but Danforth ultimately wins the nomination.  Here's the map:

Red: Danforth
Green: Treen
Blue: Reagan



Kennedy picks Gore to level out the ticket and help in the South. Danforth decides to pick Treen as his running mate to offset any Democratic pickups in the South.  Going into the campaign, Kennedy is supposed to win by 10 points or more, but Danforth characterizes Kennedy as a liberal.  Going into election day, Kennedy runs a final ad that shows the history of his family.  Many analysts say Kennedy wins only because of this ad.  Also, Kennedy overperforms out west.

Kennedy/Gore: 50%, 275 electoral votes
Danforth/Treen: 49%, 263 electoral votes

[Jake]

Very good so far True Dem

[True Democrat]

Just a note: All the people mentioned in this timeline are real, though they may not have held the position as I say they are holding.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Just a note: All the people mentioned in this timeline are real, though they may not have held the position as I say they are holding.

Considering that I can't see Governor Carter running for President in 1972 I would say so.  He would have been Governor of Georgia for under a year when he campaign in Iowa, and he had run a pro-segregationist campaign in 1970.  If Carter had tried running for President in 1972, his reputation as a flip-flopper would have made his candidacy untenable.  And you can't say that Carter won the Governor's race in 1966, not with a POD of 1964.  Maddox would definitely have beaten Carter in 1966, just as he did in OTL.

I also can't see Ford choosing to campaign for the Presidency without having first been Vice-President.

In 1980, I can't see Strom campaigning for the Vice Presidency on any ticket.  He was too old to seek a new office and he was wise enough politically to know that.   Gov. Maddox of Georgia would be a good pick for Wallace, as given the strength you've given his candidcy, he probably won election in 1974 unlike our own time line.  (10 years of Maddox as governor of Georgia instead of only 4.  That would certainly have made the Peach State different from OTL.)

[True Democrat]

Just a note: All the people mentioned in this timeline are real, though they may not have held the position as I say they are holding.

Considering that I can't see Governor Carter running for President in 1972 I would say so.  He would have been Governor of Georgia for under a year when he campaign in Iowa, and he had run a pro-segregationist campaign in 1970.  If Carter had tried running for President in 1972, his reputation as a flip-flopper would have made his candidacy untenable.  And you can't say that Carter won the Governor's race in 1966, not with a POD of 1964.  Maddox would definitely have beaten Carter in 1966, just as he did in OTL.

I also can't see Ford choosing to campaign for the Presidency without having first been Vice-President.

In 1980, I can't see Strom campaigning for the Vice Presidency on any ticket.  He was too old to seek a new office and he was wise enough politically to know that.   Gov. Maddox of Georgia would be a good pick for Wallace, as given the strength you've given his candidcy, he probably won election in 1974 unlike our own time line.  (10 years of Maddox as governor of Georgia instead of only 4.  That would certainly have made the Peach State different from OTL.)

Since Watergate never happened, there is no prejudice against Washington insiders.

[True Democrat]

1988:
Kennedy is riding high in the polls, but the Republicans feel he can still be beaten.  The two candidates in the race are Governor Henry Bellman of Oklahoma (in this timeline he has been governor for quite a few years) and California Governor Geroge Deukmejian.  Iowa is a very close contest, but goes to Bellman.  New Hampshire, however, goes to Deukmejian.  In the end, Bellman wins the nomination because the "Super Tuesday" primaries are mainly southern states, which gives him momentum in the polls.  Here's the map:

Red: Deukmejian
Blue: Bellman



For his running mate, Bellman picks fellow southerner, South Carolina Governer Carol Campbell (who was elected in 1979).  Al Gore decides not to run for Vice-President again, as he and Kennedy have a dispute.  To fill his place, Kennedy picks Hubert Humphrey III in an attempt to get the support of Midwest pro-labor Demcrats.  Kennedy cruises to reelection victory, partially due to the huge farm package he passes, which wins him even more support in the Midwest

Kennedy/Humphrey: 60%, 402 electoral votes
Bellman/Campbell: 39%, 136 electoral votes

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Since Watergate never happened, there is no prejudice against Washington insiders.

And the winner for biggest non-sequeteur goes to...
   TRUE DEMOCRAT!

The reason why I feel that none of those three would have been candidates at the times mentioned has nothing to with a bias against Washington insiders.  In Carter's case, it's the fact that first term Governors with no other political experience simply do not run for Presdent. Carter left office for him to be able to win the Democratic nomination.  Your POD simply isn't going to change the fact that Maddox wins the Governor's race in 1966, so the earliest Carter could become Governor is 1970, same as in OTL. It took a year of heavy preperation in Iowa in 1975 during the year after Carter left office due to the one term limit Georgia Governors were then subject to.  Carter can't both be a newly elected Governor and a Presidential candidate at the same time so he can't run for President in 1972.

 Ford was happy being Minority Leader; he surrendered it only to become Vice President so as to help the GOP.  Prior to being in the executive Branch, he had no interest in running for President.

At age 76, Thrumond is not going to be so stupid as to run for Vice President in 1980.  Especially not on a third party ticket and give up the power he had built up with the GOP since his switch back in 1964;  a switch that would happen for exactly the same reasons in your ATL as in OTL.

[True Democrat]

1992:
In his second term, Kennedy did a very bold move, and decided to give huge amounts of aid the Latin American countries and to actually meet with Castro himself.  This won him huge support from Hispanic-Americans.  In the Democratic primary, the main candidates are Al Gore, Hubert Humphrey III, Ted Kennedy (though he drops out after Iowa), and Senator John Heinz III ( who never died in a plane crash and  became a Democrat just two years earlier).  Kennedy must drop out because of age, liberalness, and connection to the President.  In Iowa, Humphrey scores an early victory becaue of regionalism.  In New Hampshire, Heinz almost upsets Humphrey.  South Carolina is easily carried by Gore.  A couple of other states are split between Gore, Humphrey, and Heinz until Super Tuesday.  This is map before Super Tuesday:

Blue: Gore
Red: Humphrey
Green: Heinz



Going into the convention, it's a tie between Humphrey Heinz (who did extremely well in states with large Hispanic populations because he was a big supporter of Kennedy's aid).  Gore has not formally endorsed anyone, but everyone knows he is leaning towards Heinz.  Here is the final map:



After Gore's endrosement of Heinz, he easily wins the nomination.  Many liberal Democrats are unhappy with Heinz's nomination.  They ask Humphrey to run, but he refuses, Ted Kennedy runs under the Liberal Democrats banner.

In the Republican primaries, the main candidates are Steve Forbes, Senator George H.W. Bush, and Pat  Buchanan.  Forbes easily gets the nomination after Bush's strategy of winnning the Northeast goes downhill.

Red: Forbes
Blue: Bush
Buchanan: Green



In the general election, Heinz is at a huge disadvantage becuase the of the Liberal Democratic party.  In a move to entirely cut support from the Democratic base, Heinz chooses Republican Senator Olympia Snowe of Maine (who had been elected in the 80s).  Forbes picked Mike Hayden of Kansas in an attemp the get hte Conservative wing of his party.  This turned out to be bad move, as Hayden was shown to be extremelye conservative.  Many moderate Republicans fled to Heinz.  Kennedy chose Senator Barabara Mikulski of Maryland.  Forbes' flat tax plays well with richer Americans.  In the end, Heinz wins the electoral college and popular vote, but neither with a majority.  The election is thrown to House, where he is elected.  In the Senate, which also has a Democratic majority, refuses to accept Snowe at first.  Mikulski is leading every ballot until moderate Republicans realize they should vote for Snowe and not Hayden.  Snowe barely pulls a victory on January 8, 1993.

Heinz/Snowe: 41%, 247 electoral votes
Forbes/Hayden: 38%, 230 electoral votes
Kennedy/Mikulski: 20%, 61 electoral votes

[True Democrat]

1996:
President Heinz, although very popular with the center, is hated by the left for his positions on many economic issues, and hated by the right for his positions on social issues.  For the first time in decades, a sitting President is challanged in the primary, this time by Senator John Kerry (supported by Ted Kennedy) and Governor Zell Miller.  Governor Miller quickly drops out due to health reasons and the bigger problem that he changes is registration to Republican.  Democratic businessman Ross Perot also enters the primaries and takes a few states.  Here are a map of the primaries:

Red: John Kerry
Blue: John Heinz
Green: Perot



In the Republican primary, the main candidates are Senator John McCain of Arizona, Senator Lincoln Chafee of Rhode Island (appointed Senator in 1989 when father died), and Senator Jim Jeffords of Vermont.  The entire field of candidates is filled with moderates, so the South is most hotly contested region.  Here's a a map of the primaries:

Red: Chafee
Blue: Jeffords
Green: McCain



Jeffords goes into the primaries leading McCain, but after Chafee endoreses Jeffords, his victory is assured.  Jeffords chooses Senator Chafee as his running mate to return the favor.

John Kerry decides to run as a Liberal Democrat and chooses Governor Howard Dean of Vermont as his running mate.

Also running is Independent candidate Ross Perot.  As the religious right has no one to turn to, Perot seems to be the obvious candidate after choosing Flordia Governor Jeb Bush as his running mate.

With four major candidates in the race, it is obvious there will be no clear winner.  Here is a sample poll two weeks before the election:

Heinz: 27%
Jeffords: 29%
Perot: 24%
Kerry: 15%
Other/Undecided: 5%

Conservatives:
Heinz: 5%
Jeffords: 35%
Perot:50%
Kerry: 1%
Other/Undecided: 9%

Moderates:
Heinz: 55%
Jeffords: 25%
Perot: 10%
Kerry: 5%
Other/Undecided: 5%

Liberals:
Heinz: 15%
Jeffords: 10%
Perot: 10%
Kerry: 63%
Other/Undecided: 2%

Note: Conservatives in this election are turning out in record numbers.

One week before the election, John Kerry drops out, seeing that the only states he's leading in are Massachusetts and Maryland.  He does not endorse anyone, except he gives a rousing speech against President Heinz.  Here's where his support goes to:

Heinz: 5%
Jeffords: 55%
Perot: 40%

As it turns out, this poll is wrong.

On election's eve, Heinz is coping with the fact that he may even get third.  As it turns out, the election is basically a three-way tie:

Heinz/Snowe: 34%, 198 electoral votes
Jeffords/Chafee: 34%, 173 electoral votes
Perot/Bush: 31%, 167 electoral vote



Again, the election is thrown to the House, where Republicans now have a majority.  Before the results are certified, President Heinz realizes what is going to happen.  In a power grab, Heinz uses the constitution to his advantage.  He uses his power to stall the House and Senae for picking the Presdient and Vice-President.  Because there is no President or Vice-President by inaguration day, the Supreme Court rules anyone may become President temporarily under the 20th amendment.  Heinz somehow convinces the House to put Snowe in as President, who chooses Heinz as her temporary Vice-President.  Then Heinz lets Hous procedure go on, and lets Jeffords become President.  Jeffords is elected after about 502 ballots on February 15th.  Most of support comes from the far right (after he gets Perot's support) and the far left (hate of Heinz).  Heinz, however, is still Vice-President.  He refuses to let his allies in the Senate elect a Vice-President from the list, so Jeffords agrees that if Heinz resigns, Chafee will become Vice-President, then Chafee will resign, and Heinz will be nominated for Vice-President.  Heinz tells Jeffords that if he does not follow through on his promise, he promises that his allies (if you haven't guessed, Heinz has so many allies in the Senate, he can basically control it) will fight every bill Jeffords puts forward.  So in the end, the new administration is:

Jeffords/Heinz

[7,052,770]

good job.
One note though:  if the senate has to pick the VP in a no-majority election, they pick from the top 2 candidates.
Unless a constitutional amendment changed that in some point in your Timeline.

[True Democrat]

good job.
One note though:  if the senate has to pick the VP in a no-majority election, they pick from the top 2 candidates.
Unless a constitutional amendment changed that in some point in your Timeline.

The 20th amendment states:

...and the Congress may by law provide for the case wherein neither a President elect nor a Vice President elect shall have qualified, declaring who shall then act as President, or the manner in which one who is to act shall be selected, and such person shall act accordingly until a President or Vice President shall have qualified.

So, Snowe is temporarily President and picks Heinz as her Vice-President because the Supreme Court is kind of Heinz's back pocket.  Then, Jeffords is certified as President, and Heinz must resign.  Chafee is then elected from the Senate, but resigns, so Jeffords can appoint Heinz.

[True Democrat]

Since Watergate never happened, there is no prejudice against Washington insiders.

And the winner for biggest non-sequeteur goes to...
   TRUE DEMOCRAT!

The reason why I feel that none of those three would have been candidates at the times mentioned has nothing to with a bias against Washington insiders.  In Carter's case, it's the fact that first term Governors with no other political experience simply do not run for Presdent. Carter left office for him to be able to win the Democratic nomination.  Your POD simply isn't going to change the fact that Maddox wins the Governor's race in 1966, so the earliest Carter could become Governor is 1970, same as in OTL. It took a year of heavy preperation in Iowa in 1975 during the year after Carter left office due to the one term limit Georgia Governors were then subject to.  Carter can't both be a newly elected Governor and a Presidential candidate at the same time so he can't run for President in 1972.

 Ford was happy being Minority Leader; he surrendered it only to become Vice President so as to help the GOP.  Prior to being in the executive Branch, he had no interest in running for President.

At age 76, Thrumond is not going to be so stupid as to run for Vice President in 1980.  Especially not on a third party ticket and give up the power he had built up with the GOP since his switch back in 1964;  a switch that would happen for exactly the same reasons in your ATL as in OTL.

In this timeline, people can have different personalities and have different terms.  Carter, for example, may have been elected years earlier than in real life.

In response to Thurmond being too old, I now realize that is probably true, but maybe Wallace wasn't trying to win, just trying to change the results of the election.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

In this timeline, people can have different personalities and have different terms.  Carter, for example, may have been elected years earlier than in real life.

  I could buy that if you had an earlier POD than 1964, but your stated POD does not allow for sufficient time for Carter to become governor of Georgi any earlier than he did in OTL, which was 1970.