Trende: Why 2014 matters for Republicans in 2016

[Miles]

Basically a follow-up on the piece from yesterday. If Republicans are in the majority after 2014, they need to have at least 54 seats; otherwise they're favored to lose control in 2016.

[progressive85]

2014 and 2016 could be the first time since 1952 and 1954 that the Senate switches party control in back-to-back elections.

[henster]

I think the GOP picks up MT, WV, SD, AK, AR, NC in 2014 while the D's pick up IL, WI, PA, NH, FL, MO(Jay Nixon) in 2016.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I am confident that the GOP will net 3-5 seats in 2014 so we don't have to worry about the what if. We need the senate.

[Miles]

Of course, taking things a step further, its hard to see how Democrats hold some of those Class I seats in the 2018 midterms.

[moderatevoter]

Of course, taking things a step further, its hard to see how Democrats hold some of those Class I seats in the 2018 midterms.

Which is why I think it'll be really interesting to see how these next three election cycles (2014, 2016, and 2018) play out. There is potential for some pretty big shake ups.

[Kevin]

Of course, taking things a step further, its hard to see how Democrats hold some of those Class I seats in the 2018 midterms.

Even though Trende brings up some good points it's pointless to speculate anything for 2016 or 2018 for Congress as the situation hasn't fully developed yet.

For all we know if Obama's popularity continues to slide and the GOP get's it' act together, Republicans could make gains in 2016.

Also the same goes for 2018 in the case of a GOP President.

[ElectionsGuy]

Yes, 2014 is crucial to republican control in Congress. However, there could be unexpected retirements, scandals, and such that 2016 and 2018 are too unpredictable as of now. But the R's will definitely lose at least 1 or 2 seats.

[moderatevoter]

The most realistic chance at a pick up in 2016 is Nevada, with Sandoval. I don't see Colorado as that likely, largely because the CO GOP seems to have a horrible bench.

[Kevin]

The most realistic chance at a pick up in 2016 is Nevada, with Sandoval. I don't see Colorado as that likely, largely because the CO GOP seems to have a horrible bench.

Def Nevada in 2016 esp if Reid retires.

CO is possible if someone better emerges on the GOP side and so is WV if it continues to trend hard right.

[morgieb]

The most realistic chance at a pick up in 2016 is Nevada, with Sandoval. I don't see Colorado as that likely, largely because the CO GOP seems to have a horrible bench.

Def Nevada in 2016 esp if Reid retires.

CO is possible if someone better emerges on the GOP side and so is WV if it continues to trend hard right.

WV isn't up in 2016. That was a special.

[Miles]

I think the GOP picks up MT, WV, SD, AK, AR, NC in 2014 while the D's pick up IL, WI, PA, NH, FL, MO(Jay Nixon) in 2016.

Why is everyone saying NC will flip? Hagan is tied now but thats because no one knows how wacky her opponents are.

[Indy Texas]

Likely Democratic Pick-ups in 2016:
Illinois
New Hampshire
Wisconsin

Potential Democratic Pick-ups in 2016:
Georgia
Kentucky
Ohio
Pennsylvania

Potential Republican Pick-ups in 2016:
Nevada

I would say a neutral scenario for 2016 is for the Senate to swing D+3. If that is the case, the Republicans would need to get to 54 seats in 2014 in order to hold the chamber for more than one congress. And netting 9 seats this year requires them to run the table and win every single contestable race.

[IceSpear]

I think the GOP picks up MT, WV, SD, AK, AR, NC in 2014 while the D's pick up IL, WI, PA, NH, FL, MO(Jay Nixon) in 2016.

Why is everyone saying NC will flip? Hagan is tied now but thats because no one knows how wacky her opponents are.

Well, the nutjob Sharron Angle only lost by 5 points in a bluish state...Ken Buck only lost by 1 point. I could see a nutter like Brannon pulling it out in a GOP wave. But for now, Hagan is slightly favored.

[Sol]

Likely Democratic Pick-ups in 2016:
Illinois
New Hampshire
Wisconsin

Potential Democratic Pick-ups in 2016:
Georgia
Kentucky
Ohio
Pennsylvania

Potential Republican Pick-ups in 2016:
Nevada

I would say a neutral scenario for 2016 is for the Senate to swing D+3. If that is the case, the Republicans would need to get to 54 seats in 2014 in order to hold the chamber for more than one congress. And netting 9 seats this year requires them to run the table and win every single contestable race.

Florida is vulnerable- Rubio has not had the nice leads that one would want- he's far from safe if I recall. And if he runs for POTUS, the seat is open. I'd also say NH is potential pickup- Ayotte seems reasonably popular.

I think the GOP picks up MT, WV, SD, AK, AR, NC in 2014 while the D's pick up IL, WI, PA, NH, FL, MO(Jay Nixon) in 2016.

Why is everyone saying NC will flip? Hagan is tied now but thats because no one knows how wacky her opponents are.

Well, the nutjob Sharron Angle only lost by 5 points in a bluish state...Ken Buck only lost by 1 point. I could see a nutter like Brannon pulling it out in a GOP wave. But for now, Hagan is slightly favored.

Hagan isn't as hated as Reid- that propelled a lot of the animosity that helped Angle. Brannon probably akinizes himself. Tillis is the most electable, but the GA is toxic no matter the national environment.

[illegaloperation]

People here are understating Hagan chance of winning reelection.

As Rob Christensen wrote:

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[Sol]

Not to mention a very weak pubbie base- it's basically General Assembly extremist and Tea Party loon for the pubs.

[hopper]

People here are understating Hagan chance of winning reelection.

As Rob Christensen wrote:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No the 6th year of a presidency with the presidents party usually you see a loss of congressional seats. NC is 50/50 right now.

[illegaloperation]

No the 6th year of a presidency with the presidents party usually you see a loss of congressional seats. NC is 50/50 right now.

Do you have any idea what is happening in North Carolina?  Hint: Moral Mondays

Also, Ron Christensen has been quite accurate about his predictions.

[IceSpear]

No the 6th year of a presidency with the presidents party usually you see a loss of congressional seats. NC is 50/50 right now.

Do you have any idea what is happening in North Carolina?  Hint: Moral Mondays

Also, Ron Christensen has been quite accurate about his predictions.

The Wisconsin protests were a lot bigger and more significant than Moral Mondays, and Walker still survived his recall.

[Miles]

No the 6th year of a presidency with the presidents party usually you see a loss of congressional seats. NC is 50/50 right now.

Have you seen what the Republican field looks like?

The Wisconsin protests were a lot bigger and more significant than Moral Mondays, and Walker still survived his recall.

The Moral Mondays will continue this year. Walker's numbers never dropped as low as McCrory's and Cooper is a much better challenger than Barrett.

[illegaloperation]

The Wisconsin protests were a lot bigger and more significant than Moral Mondays, and Walker still survived his recall.

That's a bit different.

The protests were organized by the unions and lot of people in Wisconsin weren't personally affected by Walker's (and the general assembly's) decision.

[IceSpear]

The Wisconsin protests were a lot bigger and more significant than Moral Mondays, and Walker still survived his recall.

The Moral Mondays will continue this year. Walker's numbers never dropped as low as McCrory's and Cooper is a much better challenger than Barrett.

These are the kind of arguments that convince me. Not "some people are protesting which PROVES everyone will vote Democrat." The latter reminds me of Peggy Noonan saying that Romney would win the election because she saw more Romney yard signs.

But since this was about Hagan, McCrory's approval means less, and Cooper vs. Barrett doesn't matter at all.

[Miles]

The Wisconsin protests were a lot bigger and more significant than Moral Mondays, and Walker still survived his recall.

The Moral Mondays will continue this year. Walker's numbers never dropped as low as McCrory's and Cooper is a much better challenger than Barrett.

These are the kind of arguments that convince me. Not "some people are protesting which PROVES everyone will vote Democrat." The latter reminds me of Peggy Noonan saying that Romney would win the election because she saw more Romney yard signs.

But since this was about Hagan, McCrory's approval means less, and Cooper vs. Barrett doesn't matter at all.

You're the one who started comparing Moral Mondays to the Wisconsin protests

[illegaloperation]

The Democrats' problem is low voter turnout in non-presidential years.

Since >1000 Moral Monday protestors have been arrested so far, I doubt that the Democrats there would have as much trouble with voter turnout as in normal midterm elections.