Situations where borders matter in election results

[Nichlemn]

What are some situations in which people have voted distinctly differently because they're on a different side of an arbitrary line? That is, if you made an electoral map and removed some political boundaries, you can still see where they were based on a stark difference when crossing the line. The scale needs to be granular enough so that you can be pretty sure that the boundary is relevant (and you're not just accounting for e.g. a major city). Also, it should be apples-to-apples (so don't cite US Presidential primaries between states that vote at greatly different dates).

One example: the difference between East and West Germany in Left Party voting. (Can't find the source right now).

[Sol]

New Hampshire?

Polish voting has a tendency to pattern along the early 20th century borders:

The Moldovan Communists tend to do well in Gagauzia, compared to ethnically Romanian areas around.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Polish voting has a tendency to pattern along the early 20th century borders

But given the history of 'population transfers' (to use a horrible euphemism) in that part of the world, those lines aren't quite so arbitrary...

[Sol]

Polish voting has a tendency to pattern along the early 20th century borders

But given the history of 'population transfers' (to use a horrible euphemism) in that part of the world, those lines aren't quite so arbitrary...

I suppose it depends on your definition of arbitrary- is that border historically based on geology or rivers or somesuch? Or is more just historical? Because if its the latter, I suppose it is, in a sense, arbitrary (although it is of course true that a good deal of ethnic cleansing took place on one side of the line but not the other).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Who said that declaring a river to be a boundary isn't arbitrary in that sense? In landscape terms at least, a river is usually a uniting feature.

[Adam Griffin]

This probably doesn't count given some of the criteria outlined, but it has always amused me (2008):

[Flake]

This probably doesn't count given some of the criteria outlined, but it has always amused me (2008):

Why is there such a stark difference between Northern Georgia and every other state in the same region?

[Adam Griffin]

This probably doesn't count given some of the criteria outlined, but it has always amused me (2008):

Why is there such a stark difference between Northern Georgia and every other state in the same region?

Initially, I assumed it was the difference in organization of the respective state parties, but TN was probably in worse shape than Georgia circa 2008 (though they did still have the Governorship then).

[Sol]

Who said that declaring a river to be a boundary isn't arbitrary in that sense? In landscape terms at least, a river is usually a uniting feature.

I feel like it often depends on the river- St. Lawrence, Nile certainly would be arbitrary. Rio Grande, Amur makes more sense.

I suppose it depends on how you define arbitrary.

[ElectionsGuy]

There's a big difference between Eastern Tennessee and Western North Carolina, and McCain probably would've won NC if the line was a little more west. Another place seems to be the Missouri-Iowa line, and that seems to be caused by a religious divide, with baptists in Missouri and Catholics and Lutherans in Iowa. Another difference might be Pennsylvania rural northern counties vs. New York southwestern rural counties.

[Miles]

Initially, I assumed it was the difference in organization of the respective state parties, but TN was probably in worse shape than Georgia circa 2008 (though they did still have the Governorship then).

And a majority of the House delegation

[Sol]

There's a big difference between Eastern Tennessee and Western North Carolina, and McCain probably would've won NC if the line was a little more west. Another place seems to be the Missouri-Iowa line, and that seems to be caused by a religious divide, with baptists in Missouri and Catholics and Lutherans in Iowa. Another difference might be Pennsylvania rural northern counties vs. New York southwestern rural counties.

That's broadly true for NC, although it's a lot more complicated on the local level. NW NC is pretty conservative and votes like East TN (except Watauga county- and there are areas there that vote like Ashe County too). Similarly, some of the counties in the far Southwest vote very pubbie, as does Henderson County. Central Western NC mostly votes republican if you look at it by counties- with the exception of Buncombe (liberal, urban Asheville plus hippies in places like Black Mountain (which was historically home to literarily notable Black Mountain College, now defunct)) and Jackson (WCU and a Cherokee reservation). But if you look at it on the precinct level, it's a lot more complex, with Democrats doing well in some blue dog areas in places like Haywood and Madison Counties, as well as little liberal (in the american sense) enclaves in Brevard and Tryon.

Why exactly does central WNC vote much more democratic than TN is a question which I don't quite know the answer to. I know a lot of central WNC counties were relatively confederate-friendly- that may be involved. Also, perhaps the TVA?

I dunno about that last one- aside from Erie and Niagara Counties, far-SW is pretty conservative.

[Miles]

I made this PVI map I made a while ago; the counties on the NE and MO side of the IA border are much darker:

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why is there such a stark difference between Northern Georgia and every other state in the same region?

There are mountains in the way.

[nclib]

Mass./NH comes to mind--conservatives moving across the border to pay lower taxes. I'd be interested in seeing a town map along the border.

VA/MD certainly used to be, though smaller now since NoVA is moving to the left.

[Brittain33]

It's confounding when state borders reflect a campaign's efforts in one state but not another. That alone could account for Iowa vs. Nebraska given Obama's deep organizational efforts in battleground states.

[Adam Griffin]

Why is there such a stark difference between Northern Georgia and every other state in the same region?

There are mountains in the way.

Correct, depending on what we mean by 'region'. Compared to most of SC or AL, definitely.

Most of western NC & eastern TN have even more isolated areas and are at higher elevations, yet they are still not as Republican. Even parts of northeastern AL are more remote these days. There has always been a relatively strong Republican presence in North Georgia (centered around Fannin County). I've always assumed that it was just as potent in many other places throughout mountainous TN/NC.

[Adam Griffin]

On second thought, this might make a more sense now.

In 2008, Heath Shuler and Lincoln Davis were running strong campaigns in these areas (eastern TN/western NC) and won. Davis wasn't in the mountains, but the media market would have had him well-exposed in those counties. More the case in Shuler's race, the competitiveness in the region would have helped drive down Republican margins in most contests through simple organization and on-the-ground efforts. In contrast, the Democratic Party of Georgia was telling OFA volunteers not to stir up the area in 2008 in the event Obama didn't pull out and the state was close enough to win. It'd also explain why everything returned more to the mean on the same map in 2012 (same ol', same ol' in NGA, Davis was knocked out in '10 and Heath Shuler declined to run for re-election after NC-11 was hacked).

[Sol]

Isn't a good deal of the pubbitude in NGA because of spillover/sprawl from Atlanta/Chattanooga? The really rural areas of NGA vote essentially the same as Eastern TN, at least looking at maps.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I meant 'mountains' as in 'physical barrier'. It's not so strange to see entirely different voting patterns on opposite sides of the same mountain, let alone that.

[Mr. Illini]

Iowa is a stark case, very noticeable. The Illinois/Missouri and California/Nevada borders as well.

[Smid]

Strategic voting can result in some rather stark differences, too. See the map in this post, for example: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=98141.msg2081122#msg2081122

EDIT: And a close up of the area to which I am referring: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=98141.msg2064896#msg2064896