Sabato's Updated Rankings

[morgieb]

What I'd disagree with:

* Kentucky should be Lean R.
* Not sure that Oregon and Hawaii are Likely D. I guess there's a nasty primary in Hawaii but still.... - if they count as Likely D (as well as Virginia, where most pundits are suffering from Beltwayitis IMO), then I think a place like Tennessee (where a poll showed a possibly interesting race if Alexander loses the primary) or Oklahoma (open seat where the field isn't 100% clear) should be Likely R.
* Lean R is probably generous for West Virginia.
* Mississippi should be Likely R. If it's Childers (or some other white Blue Dog with decent credentials)/McDaniel it's one the Pubbies can easily blow.

As for the primary rankings, agree with RB. No idea with Hawaii - on paper Schatz should survive, but Hawaii is a weird state.

[7,052,770]

Only primary rating I'd disagree with is MS. Tossup at best, Cochran is where Lugar was at a comparable point.

Disagree.  I'd rate the race at Likely Cochran at this point.  McDaniel is not picking up any steam.

[tmthforu94]

Only primary rating I'd disagree with is MS. Tossup at best, Cochran is where Lugar was at a comparable point.

Disagree.  I'd rate the race at Likely Cochran at this point.  McDaniel is not picking up any steam.

Mourdock didn't really start surging until a month or two before the election - I believe Lugar was even leading in late April, and he lost a couple weeks later by 22 points.