South Carolina 2014 Congressional Races

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Starting this mostly for the Senate race.  Graham is expected to win the primary and general handily, of course, but it's too much of a race to not cover.

House



SC-1 (R) Mark Sanford (i)

SC-2 (D) Phil Black
SC-2 (D) Ed Greenleaf
SC-2 (Labor) Harold Geddings III
SC-2 (R) Eddie McCain
SC-2 (R) Joe Wilson (i)

SC-3 (D) Barbara Jo Mullis
SC-3 (R) Jeff Duncan (i)

SC-4 (L) Curtis E. McLaughlin
SC-4 (R) Trey Gowdy (i)

SC-5 (D) Tom Adams
SC-5 (R) Mick Mulvaney (i)

SC-6 (L) Kevin R. Umbaugh
SC-6 (D) Jim Clyburn (i)
SC-6 (D) Karen Smith
SC-6 (R) Anthony Culler
SC-6 (R) Leon Winn

SC-7 (D) Gloria Bromell-Tinubu
SC-7 (R) Tom Rice (i)

Senate
SC-Senate (L) Victor Kocher
SC-Senate (D) Brad Hutto
SC-Senate (D) Jay Stamper
SC-Senate (R) Det Bowers
SC-Senate (R) Lee Bright
SC-Senate (R) Richard Cash
SC-Senate (R) Bill Connor
SC-Senate (R) Benjamin Dunn
SC-Senate (R) Lindsey Graham (i)
SC-Senate (R) Nancy Mace

SC-special (D) Joyce Dickerson
SC-special (D) Sidney Moore
SC-special (R) Tim Scott (i)
SC-special (R) Randall Young
SC-special (American) Jill Bossi

* Those who will have a primary on June 10th in italics. Both Senate seats and the 2nd and 6th Districts will have primaries for both major parties.

[Miles]

Gloria Tinubu (D-GA) is running again in CD7.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Lindsey Graham invites Duck Dynasty wife to SOTU

[Deus Naturae]

Bright to raffle off AR-15.

[Indy Texas]

Lindsey Graham invites Duck Dynasty wife to SOTU

Lindsey Graham just wishes he had a beard.

And maybe some facial hair on his chin and upper lip too.

[ElectionsGuy]

Gloria Tinubu (D-GA) is running again in CD7.

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Problem is, she's not going to get 45% in Horry County.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Graham challenger Nancy Mace says she raised $400,000 so far

[Consciously Unconscious]

Graham challenger Nancy Mace says she raised $400,000 so far

I really like Mace, but her campaign isn't very good, and I'm afraid she simply isn't ready for a senate race. 

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Whether she is ready or not, she is probably the only chance to knock out Graham.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Senate fundraising numbers roll in

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Scott to speak at Bob Jones University

[Deus Naturae]

Baptist pastor Det Bowers jumps into the GOP Senate primary.

[SamInTheSouth]

None of these seats are going to change parties.  The most likely change we'd see is Graham losing to a primary opponent, but that's not looking all that likely at this point either, but even if he did the Republicans would still hold the seat. 

[Deus Naturae]

Graham spends $220k on ads.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why not?  He has a massive campaign chest and once he's past the primary he's won barring a tea partier running as an independent and splitting the vote so the Democrat can win.  But I don't see anyone out there who could hope to run as an independent and crack even 5%, let alone the 10 to 20% that would be needed to hand the election to the Democrat.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

Why not?  He has a massive campaign chest and once he's past the primary he's won barring a tea partier running as an independent and splitting the vote so the Democrat can win.  But I don't see anyone out there who could hope to run as an independent and crack even 5%, let alone the 10 to 20% that would be needed to hand the election to the Democrat.

I take it South Carolina doesn't do runoff elections for general races?

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I take it South Carolina doesn't do runoff elections for general races?

Nope, just for primaries.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

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I wonder if they'll play something from Vagner's Ride of the Walkyries when he's introduced at the Rotary Club.

[rob in cal]

I'm wondering what happens is Graham is forced into the runoff. Would the burst of publicity and mere fact of making it into the runoff give whoever makes it in with him a certain legitimacy?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I think it is likely that whoever gets in it with him would get a lot of publicity, but would it be enough to rally that anti-Graham vote in such a short period of time? That is probably the biggest variable is whether or not creating Cruz like moment is possible with such constraints.

Bright is most likely to be the one right now but also easiest to destroy in that sort of environment, whereas Mace would have a chance provided she doesn't have a Palin-Couric type moment in that period.

[The world will shine with light in our nightmare]

If Republicans really don't like Graham, then rallying behind his opponent shouldn't be a problem.  However, the anti-Graham sentiment just isn't strong enough to oust him.

If by some crazy chance it is, I wouldn't be surprised if Graham decided to start a write-in campaign.  He wouldn't be the first SC politician to win that way, after all...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If Republicans really don't like Graham, then rallying behind his opponent shouldn't be a problem.  However, the anti-Graham sentiment just isn't strong enough to oust him.

If by some crazy chance it is, I wouldn't be surprised if Graham decided to start a write-in campaign.  He wouldn't be the first SC politician to win that way, after all...

We have a sore loser law.  If you run in a primary and lose, you cannot get votes in the general election.

Also, Thurmond's 1954 write-in victory doesn't really apply. Sen. Maybank was running for reelection that year with no challegers in the primary (or the general election, not that that was more than a formality) and was cruising to a victory when he unexpectedly died of a heart attack two months before the election.  The party leaders, without holding a new primary or even a convention appointed State Sen. Edgar Allan Brown, leader of the Barnwell Ring, as the candidate. Thurmond had oft tangled with the Ring before and so he joined battle to oppose such an undemocratic move.  He also pledged to resign and allow for a special election in 1956 in which would allow a proper Democratic primary to choose who would hold the Senate seat.  Thurmond was popular enough that he received no opposition when he ran in the special election two years later, tho Gov. Timmerman did consider it but decided he had no chance.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

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Now granted, I haven't paid much attention to this race since I expect Graham to win and also out of those running in the primary I think he's the best choice.  However, while Graham has incurred the wrath of some wingnut groups, I can't think of any reason why a gun rights organization would come out against him other than he hasn't been a Ramboish advocate of guns everywhere.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Graham's made another ad buy: http://www.thestate.com/2014/03/03/3302735/election-2014-lindsey-graham-rolls.html

TV: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nr02pdTK-OE
Radio: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mAdSFtqCwM

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Not that it really matters, but Rick Wade has dropped out and will not be challenging Tim Scott, likely leaving Joyce Dickerson to face Scott in the fall unless someone new enters on the Democratic side.

http://www.thestate.com/2014/03/06/3308832/democrat-wade-drops-out-of-us.html

If I were a Democrat who thought I had a shot, I'd rather run for Graham's seat and hope Graham loses a divisive primary that shows off the kookiness of the one who defeats him or at the very least that uses up Graham's warchest.  That's a much better chance than going against Scott.

Anyway, filing runs from the 16th to the 30th.