South Carolina 2014 Congressional Races

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Why not?  He has a massive campaign chest and once he's past the primary he's won barring a tea partier running as an independent and splitting the vote so the Democrat can win.  But I don't see anyone out there who could hope to run as an independent and crack even 5%, let alone the 10 to 20% that would be needed to hand the election to the Democrat.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I take it South Carolina doesn't do runoff elections for general races?

Nope, just for primaries.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

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I wonder if they'll play something from Vagner's Ride of the Walkyries when he's introduced at the Rotary Club.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If Republicans really don't like Graham, then rallying behind his opponent shouldn't be a problem.  However, the anti-Graham sentiment just isn't strong enough to oust him.

If by some crazy chance it is, I wouldn't be surprised if Graham decided to start a write-in campaign.  He wouldn't be the first SC politician to win that way, after all...

We have a sore loser law.  If you run in a primary and lose, you cannot get votes in the general election.

Also, Thurmond's 1954 write-in victory doesn't really apply. Sen. Maybank was running for reelection that year with no challegers in the primary (or the general election, not that that was more than a formality) and was cruising to a victory when he unexpectedly died of a heart attack two months before the election.  The party leaders, without holding a new primary or even a convention appointed State Sen. Edgar Allan Brown, leader of the Barnwell Ring, as the candidate. Thurmond had oft tangled with the Ring before and so he joined battle to oppose such an undemocratic move.  He also pledged to resign and allow for a special election in 1956 in which would allow a proper Democratic primary to choose who would hold the Senate seat.  Thurmond was popular enough that he received no opposition when he ran in the special election two years later, tho Gov. Timmerman did consider it but decided he had no chance.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

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Now granted, I haven't paid much attention to this race since I expect Graham to win and also out of those running in the primary I think he's the best choice.  However, while Graham has incurred the wrath of some wingnut groups, I can't think of any reason why a gun rights organization would come out against him other than he hasn't been a Ramboish advocate of guns everywhere.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Graham's made another ad buy: http://www.thestate.com/2014/03/03/3302735/election-2014-lindsey-graham-rolls.html

TV: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Nr02pdTK-OE
Radio: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2mAdSFtqCwM

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Not that it really matters, but Rick Wade has dropped out and will not be challenging Tim Scott, likely leaving Joyce Dickerson to face Scott in the fall unless someone new enters on the Democratic side.

http://www.thestate.com/2014/03/06/3308832/democrat-wade-drops-out-of-us.html

If I were a Democrat who thought I had a shot, I'd rather run for Graham's seat and hope Graham loses a divisive primary that shows off the kookiness of the one who defeats him or at the very least that uses up Graham's warchest.  That's a much better chance than going against Scott.

Anyway, filing runs from the 16th to the 30th.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

When is the primary?

June 10th.

With the runoff, if needed, but two weeks later on June 24th.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Article in the State concerning the opening of Nancy Mace's campaign HQ that had a head-scratching comment from one voter in it:

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Now granted, Mace is only 36 and younger than everyone currently in the Senate, (and if elected, she would have been elected at a younger age than everyone in there except Leahy) but Graham is only 58.  He is only the 63rd oldest Senator out of 100.  Even by national standards, Graham is hardly what one would consider old, and considering we had the elderly Senate tag team of Thurmond and Hollings not too long along, he certainly ain't old by South Carolina standards. (Both Thurmond and Hollings were older when they left office than anyone currently in the Senate is now.)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Anyway, filing has opened.  Here's where you can find out who has filed so far:
https://info.scvotes.sc.gov/Eng/candidate/selectelection.aspx  Select the November election if you want all who have filed and the June Primary if you want only those races in which there are two or more people who have filed in the same party for the same office so far.

As of March 17, the list has:
SC-1 (R) Mark Sanford
SC-2 (D) Ed Greenleaf
SC-2 (R) Eddie McCain
SC-2 (R) Joe Wilson
SC-6 (D) Jim Clyburn

So far no one has filed in the Senate races.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

FreedomWorks endorses Scott and Sanford.

How very brave of them to support two incumbents that have no real opposition. (And might well end up with no primary opposition at all.)

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Graham releases ad touting his foreign policy record.

That ad is hilarious: seems straight from the 80s. I also love how it says "gets things done" when the ad promotes his demagouging.

His ads are working tho.  Gravis released a new poll today and he went from 54% of the primary voters just after Thanksgiving to 60% just before this third ad blitz.  The increase is coming from converting undecided voters to Graham voters.

As of March 18, the list of those who have filed includes:
SC-special (D) Joyce Dickerson
SC-1 (R) Mark Sanford
SC-2 (D) Ed Greenleaf
SC-2 (R) Eddie McCain
SC-2 (R) Joe Wilson
SC-3 (R) Jeff Duncan
SC-4 (R) Trey Gowdy
SC-5 (R) Mick Mulvaney
SC-6 (D) Jim Clyburn
SC-7 (R) Tom Rice

Those who filed on the 18th in italics.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

As of March 21, the list of those who have filed includes:
SC-Senate (L) Victor Kocher
SC-Senate (D) Jay Stamper
SC-Senate (R) Richard Cash
SC-Senate (R) Lindsey Graham (i)
SC-special (D) Joyce Dickerson
SC-special (R) Tim Scott (i)
SC-1 (R) Mark Sanford (i)
SC-2 (D) Ed Greenleaf
SC-2 (R) Eddie McCain
SC-2 (R) Joe Wilson (i)
SC-3 (R) Jeff Duncan (i)
SC-4 (R) Trey Gowdy (i)
SC-5 (D) Tom Adams
SC-5 (R) Mick Mulvaney (i)
SC-6 (D) Jim Clyburn (i)
SC-7 (R) Tom Rice (i)

Those who will have a primary on June 10th in italics.  All incumbents have now filed.  So far only two face a primary challenge, but there are still nine more days to file.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Don't know, but I'm eagerly awaiting the Graham-Kocher rematch in the fall.  Kocher was the Libertarian Senate candidate in 2002 when he came in fourth of the four candidates on the ballot.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

As of March 24, the list of those who have filed includes:
SC-Senate (L) Victor Kocher
SC-Senate (D) Jay Stamper
SC-Senate (R) Det Bowers
SC-Senate (R) Richard Cash
SC-Senate (R) Bill Connor
SC-Senate (R) Lindsey Graham (i)
SC-special (D) Joyce Dickerson
SC-special (R) Tim Scott (i)
SC-1 (R) Mark Sanford (i)
SC-2 (D) Ed Greenleaf
SC-2 (R) Eddie McCain
SC-2 (R) Joe Wilson (i)
SC-3 (R) Jeff Duncan (i)
SC-4 (R) Trey Gowdy (i)
SC-5 (D) Tom Adams
SC-5 (R) Mick Mulvaney (i)
SC-6 (D) Jim Clyburn (i)
SC-6 (D) Karen Smith
SC-7 (R) Tom Rice (i)

Those who will have a primary on June 10th in italics.  All incumbents have now filed.  So far only three face a primary challenge, with filing closing on Monday. No idea who Clyburn's opponent is other than she lives in Dorchester.  Google returns zilch on her.  I can think of better things to spend the $3,480 filing fee on.  If I lived in the 6th district, I'd consider voting for her simply because on the line of the application where it asks for you to phonetically spell your name if needed for an audio ballot for the blind, she did it in IPA: ka'ren smiθ

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

As of March 28, the list of those who have filed includes:

SC-Senate (L) Victor Kocher
SC-Senate (D) Brad Hutto
SC-Senate (D) Jay Stamper
SC-Senate (R) Det Bowers
SC-Senate (R) Lee Bright
SC-Senate (R) Richard Cash
SC-Senate (R) Bill Connor
SC-Senate (R) Benjamin Dunn
SC-Senate (R) Lindsey Graham (i)
SC-Senate (R) Nancy Mace

SC-special (D) Joyce Dickerson
SC-special (D) Sidney Moore
SC-special (R) Tim Scott (i)
SC-special (R) Randall Young
SC-special (American) Jill Bossi

SC-1 (R) Mark Sanford (i)

SC-2 (D) Phil Black
SC-2 (D) Ed Greenleaf
SC-2 (Labor) Harold Geddings III
SC-2 (R) Eddie McCain
SC-2 (R) Joe Wilson (i)

SC-3 (D) Barbara Jo Mullis
SC-3 (R) Jeff Duncan (i)

SC-4 (L) Curtis E. McLaughlin
SC-4 (R) Trey Gowdy (i)

SC-5 (D) Tom Adams
SC-5 (R) Mick Mulvaney (i)

SC-6 (L) Kevin R. Umbaugh
SC-6 (D) Jim Clyburn (i)
SC-6 (D) Karen Smith
SC-6 (R) Anthony Culler
SC-6 (R) Leon Winn

SC-7 (D)  Gloria Bromell-Tinubu
SC-7 (R) Tom Rice (i)

Those who will have a primary on June 10th in italics. Both Senate seats and the 2nd and 6th Districts will have primaries for both major parties.  The American Party is a recently ballot qualified party that was organized by some moderate heroes disenchanted with both major parties and were somehow delusional enough to think a moderate party might have success.  The Labor Party is what it says it is, tho I am surprised it's running a candidate in the 2nd District.

Given how crowded the special election was for the 1st District last year, it'll be a real hoot if Sanford ends up with no primary or general election opposition, but filing doesn't close until noon on Monday.  Every election there seems to be some candidate who tries to file on the last day, but doesn't get it done before noon.  At least we shouldn't have the mess concerning financial statements that tripped up so many last election.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I think this is the complete list of those who have filed includes:

SC-Senate
(L) Victor Kocher

(D) Brad Hutto
(D) Jay Stamper

(R) Det Bowers
(R) Lee Bright
(R) Richard Cash
(R) Bill Connor
(R) Benjamin Dunn
(R) Lindsey Graham (i)
(R) Nancy Mace

SC-Senate (special)
(D) Joyce Dickerson
(D) Sidney Moore
(D) Harry Pavilack

(R) Tim Scott (i)
(R) Randall Young

(American) Jill Bossi

SC-1
(R) Mark Sanford (i)

SC-2
(D) Phil Black
(D) Ed Greenleaf

(Labor) Harold Geddings III

(R) Eddie McCain
(R) Joe Wilson (i)

SC-3
(D) Hosea Cleveland
(D) Barbara Jo Mullis

(R) Jeff Duncan (i)

SC-4
(L) Curtis E. McLaughlin

(R) Trey Gowdy (i)

SC-5
(D) Tom Adams

(R) Mick Mulvaney (i)

SC-6
(L) Kevin R. Umbaugh

(D) Jim Clyburn (i)
(D) Karen Smith

(R) Anthony Culler
(R) Leon Winn

SC-7
(D)  Gloria Bromell-Tinubu

(R) Tom Rice (i)

Those who will be on the ballot in November without having to face a primary on June 10th in italics.

Given how crowded the special election was for the 1st District last year, it is a real hoot that Sanford ends up with no primary or general election opposition.  In theory someone could mount a petition candidacy or a write-in candidacy, but those don't usually do well except under special circumstances.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Apparently Ravenel is running as an Independent if Graham wins the primary and plans to spend all his money on anti-Graham attack ads.

http://www.thestate.com/2014/04/07/3374154/thomas-ravenel-eyes-independent.html

He'll have a tough time doing it, especially if he waits until Graham wins to do the signature raising.  He'll need to get 10,000 valid signatures to run as a petition candidate.  He has to submit them by noon on the 15th of July (a Tuesday this year).  So that's basically two weeks if waits until after the runoff and four weeks if he waits until the primary.  That's just not enough time.  He'll need to start collecting signatures now if he wants to actually be on the ballot, and I doubt he can get the 10,000 he needs.

If he doesn't get on the ballot, Thomas could try a write-in campaign a la Strom 1954, but Thurmond's victory was due to the unique circumstances of that race, a dispute over whether a new primary should have been held by the Democrats when Sen. Maybank died two months before election day.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Graham will be debating his primary opponents.

http://www.thestate.com/2014/04/24/3407792/graham-agrees-to-sc-debate.html

It'll be on the Saturday before the primary and of course those opposed to Graham are treating the fact they've "forced" him to debate to be a victory.  Maybe a moral victory, but that's all.  Unless the polls are showing who will clearly be facing him in a possible runoff, his opponents are likely to spend a lot of their time attacking each other as they strive to make the runoff and I doubt Graham will agree to a second debate for the runoff if it is held, especially given that they already debated that month.

Anyway, it will be streamed on the internet for those of you who are interested.

There are plans for debates in some of the other races, but nothing has been finalized for those.