Casey +7

[So the Heroes Fall]

http://www.timesleader.com/mld/timesleader/11107377.htm

Wake up Republicans: Santorum IS in trouble.

[WalterMitty]

santorum would be in trouble if the democrats ran a normal candidate (i.e one who lives in the 21st century and doesnt spew populism from 1896)

santorum will win.  brtd, you and i both know that  many suburbanites, despite what they say, are just as bigoted as country bumpkins.  im sure many in se pa secretly love santorum's homophobia as much as they disdain casey's silly economic ideas.

[Joe Republic]

The way I understand it, the Republicans have already woken up, and are certainly not taken a Santorum win for granted.

The options they have are: just fight as hard as they can and hope for the best; or pull Santorum out.  The latter option means that the Republicans can write-off a win at all, but they still get to keep Santorum as a popular figure with national name-recognition.  A possible bid to take on Ed Rendell has already been floated on this forum.

[So the Heroes Fall]

santorum would be in trouble if the democrats ran a normal candidate (i.e one who lives in the 21st century and doesnt spew populism from 1896)

santorum will win.  brtd, you and i both know that  many suburbanites, despite what they say, are just as bigoted as country bumpkins.  im sure many in se pa secretly love santorum's homophobia as much as they disdain casey's silly economic ideas.

Just becuase you don't like populism doesn't mean it doesn't play well in Pennsylvania.

Yes, there are lots of suburbanites like that, but they're the ones that voted for Bush. Wasn't enough for Bush to win Pennsylvania.

[12th Doctor]

The way I understand it, the Republicans have already woken up, and are certainly not taken a Santorum win for granted.

The options they have are: just fight as hard as they can and hope for the best; or pull Santorum out.  The latter option means that the Republicans can write-off a win at all, but they still get to keep Santorum as a popular figure with national name-recognition.  A possible bid to take on Ed Rendell has already been floated on this forum.

You are quite right, but I don't think that Casey has an edge either.

No other candidate could beat Santorum (period).

Casey only wins if Santorum fails to sperate Casey from his father (period).

Santorum would win in a campaign that was dependent only on issues (period).

Casey is ahead right now because he is a Casey (period).

And, also, Santorum v Casey is going to be a national race in its scope.  Only two people in PA have any expirience running a national campaign:
Rick Santorum and Arlen Specter.

[WalterMitty]

santorum would be in trouble if the democrats ran a normal candidate (i.e one who lives in the 21st century and doesnt spew populism from 1896)

santorum will win.  brtd, you and i both know that  many suburbanites, despite what they say, are just as bigoted as country bumpkins.  im sure many in se pa secretly love santorum's homophobia as much as they disdain casey's silly economic ideas.

Just becuase you don't like populism doesn't mean it doesn't play well in Pennsylvania.

Yes, there are lots of suburbanites like that, but they're the ones that voted for Bush. Wasn't enough for Bush to win Pennsylvania.

um.  john kerry is a hell of a lot different than casey.  if the dems ran a john kerry type candidate against santorum, he/she would probably win.

casey is pretty over-hyped.  he isnt going to win.  period.

[So the Heroes Fall]

Santorum would win in a campaign that was dependent only on issues (period).

then shouldn't Bush have won Pennsylvania?

[Joe Republic]

The way I understand it, the Republicans have already woken up, and are certainly not taken a Santorum win for granted.

The options they have are: just fight as hard as they can and hope for the best; or pull Santorum out.  The latter option means that the Republicans can write-off a win at all, but they still get to keep Santorum as a popular figure with national name-recognition.  A possible bid to take on Ed Rendell has already been floated on this forum.

You are quite right, but I don't think that Casey has an edge either.

No other candidate could beat Santorum (period).

Casey only wins if Santorum fails to sperate Casey from his father (period).

Santorum would win in a campaign that was dependent only on issues (period).

Casey is ahead right now because he is a Casey (period).

And, also, Santorum v Casey is going to be a national race in its scope.  Only two people in PA have any expirience running a national campaign:
Rick Santorum and Arlen Specter.

I agree.  Plus, a year and a half is a heck of a long time in politics.  I'm not calling this one for either Santorum or Casey yet, but it'll definitely be a nail-biter for both sides concerned, and one to watch for everybody else.

[12th Doctor]

Santorum would win in a campaign that was dependent only on issues (period).

then shouldn't Bush have won Pennsylvania?

Casey is not Kerry.

[So the Heroes Fall]

He seems like he'd be a much better candidate because of his father and more in touch with socially conservative democrats. How was Kerry a better candidate than Casey?

[Jake]

Um, every PA Republican on this board understands that Casey is a good candidate. But, Casey is still at the same point he was in the last poll, and will continue to be in this position until the campaign begins for real. 

[12th Doctor]

He seems like he'd be a much better candidate because of his father and more in touch with socially conservative democrats. How was Kerry a better candidate than Casey?

Because Kerry could win suburban voters (that's right, the people you hate) in Philadelphia and Teresa brought in a strong cooalition of support from the Pittsburgh area (which, even still, was weaker than the support Gore got, but stronger than he would have recieved without her).

[12th Doctor]

Um, every PA Republican on this board understands that Casey is a good candidate. But, Casey is still at the same point he was in the last poll, and will continue to be in this position until the campaign begins for real. 

Honestly, the more I think about this, the more I think Santorum will pull it out.

[opebo]

santorum would be in trouble if the democrats ran a normal candidate (i.e one who lives in the 21st century and doesnt spew populism from 1896)

I hate to break it to you, but 1896 is where we are right now, courtesy of the GOP.

[Keystone Phil]

This race leans Casey. Most Republicans, even PA Republicans, have admitted this. What is your point?

[PBrunsel]

If Santorum loses that PA's business. My favorite Senator, Charles Grassley, is in no trouble in Iowa.

HARKIN OUT IN '08.

[nick]

HARKIN OUT IN '08.

Retirement or do you plan on him losing?

[So the Heroes Fall]

He seems like he'd be a much better candidate because of his father and more in touch with socially conservative democrats. How was Kerry a better candidate than Casey?

Because Kerry could win suburban voters (that's right, the people you hate)

If they liked Kerry, how the hell could they like Santorum? Are you saying Kerry was a stronger candidate than Casey is?

[Jake]

He seems like he'd be a much better candidate because of his father and more in touch with socially conservative democrats. How was Kerry a better candidate than Casey?

Because Kerry could win suburban voters (that's right, the people you hate)

If they liked Kerry, how the hell could they like Santorum? Are you saying Kerry was a stronger candidate than Casey is?

Economics.  Those SE PA, suburban voters are libertarians.  Some may not vote for Mr. Populist over Santorum, who supports conservative economic ideas.

[12th Doctor]

He seems like he'd be a much better candidate because of his father and more in touch with socially conservative democrats. How was Kerry a better candidate than Casey?

Because Kerry could win suburban voters (that's right, the people you hate)

If they liked Kerry, how the hell could they like Santorum? Are you saying Kerry was a stronger candidate than Casey is?

Apart from name, yes.

[PBrunsel]

HARKIN OUT IN '08.

Retirement or do you plan on him losing?

I want him to lose, but he won't.

[Smash255]

He seems like he'd be a much better candidate because of his father and more in touch with socially conservative democrats. How was Kerry a better candidate than Casey?

Because Kerry could win suburban voters (that's right, the people you hate)

If they liked Kerry, how the hell could they like Santorum? Are you saying Kerry was a stronger candidate than Casey is?

Economics.  Those SE PA, suburban voters are libertarians.  Some may not vote for Mr. Populist over Santorum, who supports conservative economic ideas.

Granted Casey may not appeal to them, but Santorum's off the wall social conservatism will be an even worse fit for those in SE PA.  The Philly burbs may not exactly like Casey, but their will be a very strong ABS vote in that region which Casey will greatly benefit from

[12th Doctor]

He seems like he'd be a much better candidate because of his father and more in touch with socially conservative democrats. How was Kerry a better candidate than Casey?

Because Kerry could win suburban voters (that's right, the people you hate)

If they liked Kerry, how the hell could they like Santorum? Are you saying Kerry was a stronger candidate than Casey is?

Economics.  Those SE PA, suburban voters are libertarians.  Some may not vote for Mr. Populist over Santorum, who supports conservative economic ideas.

Granted Casey may not appeal to them, but Santorum's off the wall social conservatism will be an even worse fit for those in SE PA.  The Philly burbs may not exactly like Casey, but their will be a very strong ABS vote in that region which Casey will greatly benefit from

I'm sick and tired of people saying things like "off the wall social conservatism".  Santorum is very normal, save the comment he made about homosexuals, and if you people honestly think that that is going to be any issue at all in this campaign, you don't know jack about this state.

[Smash255]

He seems like he'd be a much better candidate because of his father and more in touch with socially conservative democrats. How was Kerry a better candidate than Casey?

Because Kerry could win suburban voters (that's right, the people you hate)

If they liked Kerry, how the hell could they like Santorum? Are you saying Kerry was a stronger candidate than Casey is?

Economics.  Those SE PA, suburban voters are libertarians.  Some may not vote for Mr. Populist over Santorum, who supports conservative economic ideas.

Granted Casey may not appeal to them, but Santorum's off the wall social conservatism will be an even worse fit for those in SE PA.  The Philly burbs may not exactly like Casey, but their will be a very strong ABS vote in that region which Casey will greatly benefit from

I'm sick and tired of people saying things like "off the wall social conservatism".  Santorum is very normal, save the comment he made about homosexuals, and if you people honestly think that that is going to be any issue at all in this campaign, you don't know jack about this state.

Santorum is pretty damn Conservative especially on social issues, it was more than just homosexuals also the whole individual rights stuff.  Anyway the point I'm making is that Santorum is simply not liked in SE PA.  Their will be a very strong ABS vote in that portion of the state.  It really doesn't matter all that much who the Dem candidate is in that area, SE PA is not voting for Santorum period and even though Casey's views don't fit all that well with the region he will win it because he is not Santorum

[Sibboleth]

Casey leading at this point isn't suprising. Election is a long way away yet and a f*** up is possible.

Re: Kerry... Kerry was a weaker candidate in PA than Casey but the backlash towards his social views and general attitude in certain parts of PA was minimised by the Heinz machine cranking out votes in Pittsburgh proper and the inner suburbs of Pittsburgh.