Casey +7

[Wakie]

My "non-PA residents" comment was intended to be a shot at ALL non-PA residents from both sides of the fence.  I find it amusing when someone (regardless of which side they are on) claims to know all about how the residents there will behave.  I certainly don't have any special insight into what motivates votes in New Mexico and I wouldn't want to pretend I did.

You called?

Show me where I made any such claim, please. I'm not sure if it was in this thread or one of the other PA Senate threads, but I do believe I asked what you all thought about PA (how many voters on either side could switch) and never claimed that I knew how PA voters would act...?

This wasn't a shot at you.  I picked a state at random.  It could have been California or Virginia or Utah or Montana.

[nick]

Make that "Casey +1"....


By David M. Brown
TRIBUNE-REVIEW
Tuesday, March 22, 2005

A strong challenge to U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum's 2006 re-election bid is taking shape as a new Pittsburgh Tribune-Review poll shows the incumbent Republican running neck-and-neck with Democratic state Treasurer Robert P. Casey Jr.  The statewide Keystone Poll shows Casey, who has announced he will oppose Santorum, edging the two-term incumbent senator by 44 percent to 43 percent -- a statistical dead heat -- among 459 registered voters, with 13 percent undecided. The survey released Monday has a margin for error of 4.6 percentage points.

"These candidates start out relatively even," said Keystone Poll Director G. Terry Madonna. "This is the marquee Senate race in the country next year, and it's going to be an old-fashioned barn-burner."

"Everybody expects it to be hard-fought and very competitive," he said

http://pittsburghlive.com/x/tribune-review/trib/regional/s_315859.html

[AuH2O]

Wouldn't that be +1?

This poll, by the way, seems much more in line with reality than the previous two.

[nick]

Wouldn't that be +1?

This poll, by the way, seems much more in line with reality than the previous two.

Yeah, WTF was I thinking?

Anyway, here is what a PA resident I spoke with today had to say about this poll....

"You're right, Terry Madonna is one of the best, if not the best, pollsters in the state. He had Kerry winning PA very close to the actual margin." - member at another forum.

I trust this poll much more than any of the recent polls put out by the DSCC.

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Wouldn't that be +1?

This poll, by the way, seems much more in line with reality than the previous two.

Ever think it may be a Richard Mellon-Scaife bias CONSIDERING HE OWNS THE FREAKIN' PAPER AND IS RABIDLY REPUBLICAN!!!  Consider the source before you make such comments.

[nick]

Ever think it may be a Richard Mellon-Scaife bias CONSIDERING HE OWNS THE FREAKIN' PAPER AND IS RABIDLY REPUBLICAN!!!  Consider the source before you make such comments.

Franklin and Marshall College conducted the poll.  I spoke with a PA Democrat at DU today and he had this to say...

"Franklin and Marshall College has an excellent repuation in the state of PA."

"Terry Madonna is one of the best, if not the best, pollsters in the state. He had Kerry winning PA very close to the actual margin."

[RomneyGekko Situation Hairgel]

Ever think it may be a Richard Mellon-Scaife bias CONSIDERING HE OWNS THE FREAKIN' PAPER AND IS RABIDLY REPUBLICAN!!!  Consider the source before you make such comments.

Franklin and Marshall College conducted the poll.  I spoke with a PA Democrat at DU today and he had this to say...

"Franklin and Marshall College has an excellent repuation in the state of PA."

"Terry Madonna is one of the best, if not the best, pollsters in the state. He had Kerry winning PA very close to the actual margin."

Hehe.. WHOOPS!  I seen Pitt Tribune-Review and that bastard Mellon Scaife came up. 

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I don't think the poll has a pro-GOP bias, since it also shows Rendell leading Swann by 30% (59-29).

[Keystone Phil]

Hmmm. Interesting. I could believe it.

[Sibboleth]

I won't trust a poll from the DSCC and I won't trust a poll with a tiny sample.

Election is too far away to read anything inta polls. Chill all of you

[Wakie]

I don't think the poll has a pro-GOP bias, since it also shows Rendell leading Swann by 30% (59-29).

Whoa .... as a Steelers fan I love Swann for what he did on the field.  But by no means do I think being a great WR qualifies him to be Gov.

[12th Doctor]

How do you know if Swann would be a good candidate?  Have you ever seen him in a debate or even a prepared policy speech? 

Yes, acctually.  He made several speeches all accross western PA for Bush in 04.  He was quite polished and could speak to working class audiences just as well as he could wealthy donors.

Even his sports background is a mixed blessing....the majority of Pennsylvanians aren't Steeler fans, and about half those Steeler fans aren't even old enough to remember when Swann was playing for them (almost thirty years ago).

I wouls say that about 40% of PAers are Steelers fans, or, at leasty, follow the team as equally as they follow, say, the Eagles.  The only area where his backround might hurt him is Erie, where about 1/3 of the fans are Browns fans.

Even though this wouldn't and shouldn't put him over tha top, it still gives him needed name recongnition, which none of the other GOP candidates have.

More importantly, Swann doesn't do anything target the suburban Philly voters than Republicans need to win back in order to win that race.  Rendell did pretty badly in western Pennsylvania in 2002, but the southeast more than made up for it.

This argument acctually helps the case for Swann.  He is polling 42-46% and has not even reached out to the eastern half of the state yet.  Only room to grow there.

If the Pennsylvania GOP wants to beat Rendell in 2006, they should run Mark Schweiker.  I'm not really sure who else would get it done, although I'm not as up on PA politics as some on this board.

This would have worked in 2002, definatly, but Schweiker has lost big name status.  Also, I think he means it when he says he is out of politics for good.  If he really wanted to be elected governor, 2002 was the time, he could have easily won.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

40% of Pennsylvanians are not Steelers fans.  Perhaps 40% of football fans in Pennsylvania are Steelers fans, but only maybe one-third of Americans are footballs fans (a bare majority of men plus a small minority of women).   And half of those Steeler fans are too young to be fans of the Lynn Swann era Steelers.  So only about 5% of PA voters could really be described as "1970's Pittsburgh Steeler fans."

And in the latest Franklin & Marshall poll, Swann is polling at 29%, not 42-46%.

[12th Doctor]

40% of Pennsylvanians are not Steelers fans.  Perhaps 40% of football fans in Pennsylvania are Steelers fans, but only maybe one-third of Americans are footballs fans (a bare majority of men plus a small minority of women).   And half of those Steeler fans are too young to be fans of the Lynn Swann era Steelers.  So only about 5% of PA voters could really be described as "1970's Pittsburgh Steeler fans."

And in the latest Franklin & Marshall poll, Swann is polling at 29%, not 42-46%.

Obviously, you have never been to Western Pennsylvania during the football season if you think that only "a bare majority of men and a small minority of women" are Steelers fans.  Its like a religion here.  It is like being a Mormon is Utah.  If you aren't, your in the minority.  What is more is that the average Steelers fan identifies with the team.  Whereas most other fans would say:

"The Jets are having a bad year".

we say

"We are having a bad year".

You cannot imagine how many times I have been yelled at by non-Steelers fans for saying "we" when I talk about the team.

Almost everyone I know, men and women, are crazed fans during the season.

[Keystone Phil]

And in the latest Franklin & Marshall poll, Swann is polling at 29%, not 42-46%.

I hope you don't think that's the amount he would get in an actual race. Once he gets more active his numbers will go up.

[ciplexian]

Santorum flip flops on death penalty now

[Keystone Phil]

Santorum flip flops on death penalty now

He's reconsidering his position and it's not a flip flop because it wouldn't help him in any way in an election.

[ciplexian]

Santorum flip flops on death penalty now

He's reconsidering his position and it's not a flip flop because it wouldn't help him in any way in an election.

thats complete bs. yes it is a flip flop.

[Sam Spade]

Make that "Casey +1"....


By David M. Brown
TRIBUNE-REVIEW
Tuesday, March 22, 2005

A strong challenge to U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum's 2006 re-election bid is taking shape as a new Pittsburgh Tribune-Review poll shows the incumbent Republican running neck-and-neck with Democratic state Treasurer Robert P. Casey Jr.  The statewide Keystone Poll shows Casey, who has announced he will oppose Santorum, edging the two-term incumbent senator by 44 percent to 43 percent -- a statistical dead heat -- among 459 registered voters, with 13 percent undecided. The survey released Monday has a margin for error of 4.6 percentage points.

"These candidates start out relatively even," said Keystone Poll Director G. Terry Madonna. "This is the marquee Senate race in the country next year, and it's going to be an old-fashioned barn-burner."

"Everybody expects it to be hard-fought and very competitive," he said

http://pittsburghlive.com/x/tribune-review/trib/regional/s_315859.html

The last Keystone Poll on the 2004 Presidential Race had Kerry up 51%-46%.

The actual totals were Kerry 51%-48%.

Don't get me wrong, I trust SurveyUSA, but typically only right before elections.  Quinnipiac was also decent in 2004, but about as good the Keystone poll.

My gut tells me that if the election were held today, Casey would probably win by 2-4%. 

However, considering we are over a year and half from the election, I wouldn't necessarily read too much into that.

I think both campaigns can probably count on about 43-45% of the vote respectively.  However, it will be whoever reaches that remaining 10-14% or so as to who will win.

One thing's for sure, this will certainly be a very close race, imo.

[Keystone Phil]

Santorum flip flops on death penalty now

He's reconsidering his position and it's not a flip flop because it wouldn't help him in any way in an election.

yes it is a flip flop.

A flip flop is done mainly for political purposes and a changing of his position on the death penalty wouldn't help him with any voters here.

[King]

If Casey is +7 in PA, this is the end of Santorum and Republicans should be worried.  If Rossi is +3 in WA, Cantwell should be feeling good because Rossi will lose that early race momentum.

This double-standard doesn't make sense to me at all...

[WMS]

My "non-PA residents" comment was intended to be a shot at ALL non-PA residents from both sides of the fence.  I find it amusing when someone (regardless of which side they are on) claims to know all about how the residents there will behave.  I certainly don't have any special insight into what motivates votes in New Mexico and I wouldn't want to pretend I did.

You called?

Show me where I made any such claim, please. I'm not sure if it was in this thread or one of the other PA Senate threads, but I do believe I asked what you all thought about PA (how many voters on either side could switch) and never claimed that I knew how PA voters would act...?

This wasn't a shot at you.  I picked a state at random.  It could have been California or Virginia or Utah or Montana.

Cool. Although Utah can't be that hard to predict...

[Max Power]

A Tribune Review (a radical facist newspaper around here) poll shows Casey ahead by 1%.

[Max Power]

Santorum flip flops on death penalty now

Really? Why doesn't this surprise me?

[PBrunsel]

This means nothing, Grassley led Art Small by 82% in most polls in September 2004 and only won 60%.