Casey +7

[Smash255]

He seems like he'd be a much better candidate because of his father and more in touch with socially conservative democrats. How was Kerry a better candidate than Casey?

Because Kerry could win suburban voters (that's right, the people you hate)

If they liked Kerry, how the hell could they like Santorum? Are you saying Kerry was a stronger candidate than Casey is?

Economics.  Those SE PA, suburban voters are libertarians.  Some may not vote for Mr. Populist over Santorum, who supports conservative economic ideas.

Granted Casey may not appeal to them, but Santorum's off the wall social conservatism will be an even worse fit for those in SE PA.  The Philly burbs may not exactly like Casey, but their will be a very strong ABS vote in that region which Casey will greatly benefit from

[Smash255]

He seems like he'd be a much better candidate because of his father and more in touch with socially conservative democrats. How was Kerry a better candidate than Casey?

Because Kerry could win suburban voters (that's right, the people you hate)

If they liked Kerry, how the hell could they like Santorum? Are you saying Kerry was a stronger candidate than Casey is?

Economics.  Those SE PA, suburban voters are libertarians.  Some may not vote for Mr. Populist over Santorum, who supports conservative economic ideas.

Granted Casey may not appeal to them, but Santorum's off the wall social conservatism will be an even worse fit for those in SE PA.  The Philly burbs may not exactly like Casey, but their will be a very strong ABS vote in that region which Casey will greatly benefit from

I'm sick and tired of people saying things like "off the wall social conservatism".  Santorum is very normal, save the comment he made about homosexuals, and if you people honestly think that that is going to be any issue at all in this campaign, you don't know jack about this state.

Santorum is pretty damn Conservative especially on social issues, it was more than just homosexuals also the whole individual rights stuff.  Anyway the point I'm making is that Santorum is simply not liked in SE PA.  Their will be a very strong ABS vote in that portion of the state.  It really doesn't matter all that much who the Dem candidate is in that area, SE PA is not voting for Santorum period and even though Casey's views don't fit all that well with the region he will win it because he is not Santorum

[Smash255]

I have a feeling they aren't done going after Chris Heinz. The Pro Choice groups made a big fuss about Casey and then it quited down all of the sudden. Maybe something's going on...or atleast that's what I'm hoping for...

That happens, Casey gets pissed and drops out.  PA Dems are left with Hoeffel Jr. from the west and end up losing badly.

Casey won't drop out. He won't do that to the national leaders. If Heinz runs, though, I can see a Heinz win. The General election would be a good one for Santorum. No 10 point but a pretty comfortable one.

He would if they try to get Heinz to run.  Casey wants an open primary so he can raise money.  He knows Santorum is going to have from now until November 06 to raise money.  Casey wants the same.  He has nothing to lose by dropping out and waiting until 2010.

I think it would be too risky. The national Dems would be throwing a fit. I'm sure they've spoken with Heinz, telling him not to run but if the Pro Choice groups can offer him a nice deal, he might just take it.

Heinz may actually not do that bad & has a chance to  beat Santorum (Casey has a much better chance obviously)  Heinz will do better in Western PA than another Dem more on the liberal side like hafer would because he is from that area &  he will beat Santorum up pretty bad in SE PA.  Santorum probably would still beat Heinz, but it won't be as easy as some people think

[Smash255]

I have a feeling they aren't done going after Chris Heinz. The Pro Choice groups made a big fuss about Casey and then it quited down all of the sudden. Maybe something's going on...or atleast that's what I'm hoping for...

That happens, Casey gets pissed and drops out.  PA Dems are left with Hoeffel Jr. from the west and end up losing badly.

Casey won't drop out. He won't do that to the national leaders. If Heinz runs, though, I can see a Heinz win. The General election would be a good one for Santorum. No 10 point but a pretty comfortable one.

He would if they try to get Heinz to run.  Casey wants an open primary so he can raise money.  He knows Santorum is going to have from now until November 06 to raise money.  Casey wants the same.  He has nothing to lose by dropping out and waiting until 2010.

I think it would be too risky. The national Dems would be throwing a fit. I'm sure they've spoken with Heinz, telling him not to run but if the Pro Choice groups can offer him a nice deal, he might just take it.

Heinz may actually not do that bad & has a chance to  beat Santorum (Casey has a much better chance obviously)  Heinz will do better in Western PA than another Dem more on the liberal side like hafer would because he is from that area &  he will beat Santorum up pretty bad in SE PA.  Santorum probably would still beat Heinz, but it won't be as easy as some people think

Heinz could win but Santorum would finish him off in the debates. Chris Heinz is overrated.

I haven't seen Heinz debate so I can't comment on his debate skills.  Santorum is a pretty good speaker I will give him that, however its a possibility he could have another "slip of the tounge" and that would hurt him.  Overall I still give the edge to Santorum (2-3 points), but a Santorum Heinz race in my opinon would be the closest of the big 3 candidates named (Heinz, Casey & Hafer)