Casey +7

[Jake]

Um, every PA Republican on this board understands that Casey is a good candidate. But, Casey is still at the same point he was in the last poll, and will continue to be in this position until the campaign begins for real. 

[Jake]

He seems like he'd be a much better candidate because of his father and more in touch with socially conservative democrats. How was Kerry a better candidate than Casey?

Because Kerry could win suburban voters (that's right, the people you hate)

If they liked Kerry, how the hell could they like Santorum? Are you saying Kerry was a stronger candidate than Casey is?

Economics.  Those SE PA, suburban voters are libertarians.  Some may not vote for Mr. Populist over Santorum, who supports conservative economic ideas.

[Jake]

I got my Santorum 2006 contribution stuff today.  Have to get some early money together and have my parents send it in.  (Stupid regulations )

[Jake]

Um, every PA Republican on this board understands that Casey is a good candidate. But, Casey is still at the same point he was in the last poll, and will continue to be in this position until the campaign begins for real. 

And maybe he'll win the election by the same 7 points.

It's certainly possible.  The race hinges now really on money. Santorum is budgeting 20 million for the campaign, and hopes to raise 4.5 million through the end of this year. Casey won't have the money that Hoeffel had this year.  First, because Hoeffel had Rendell going around the state raising money for him, and second because Hoeffel got the big out of state abortion dollars that Casey won't get.

[Jake]

I have a feeling they aren't done going after Chris Heinz. The Pro Choice groups made a big fuss about Casey and then it quited down all of the sudden. Maybe something's going on...or atleast that's what I'm hoping for...

That happens, Casey gets pissed and drops out.  PA Dems are left with Hoeffel Jr. from the west and end up losing badly.

[Jake]

I have a feeling they aren't done going after Chris Heinz. The Pro Choice groups made a big fuss about Casey and then it quited down all of the sudden. Maybe something's going on...or atleast that's what I'm hoping for...

That happens, Casey gets pissed and drops out.  PA Dems are left with Hoeffel Jr. from the west and end up losing badly.

Casey won't drop out. He won't do that to the national leaders. If Heinz runs, though, I can see a Heinz win. The General election would be a good one for Santorum. No 10 point but a pretty comfortable one.

He would if they try to get Heinz to run.  Casey wants an open primary so he can raise money.  He knows Santorum is going to have from now until November 06 to raise money.  Casey wants the same.  He has nothing to lose by dropping out and waiting until 2010.

[Jake]

Heinz may actually not do that bad & has a chance to  beat Santorum (Casey has a much better chance obviously)  Heinz will do better in Western PA than another Dem more on the liberal side like hafer would because he is from that area &  he will beat Santorum up pretty bad in SE PA.  Santorum probably would still beat Heinz, but it won't be as easy as some people think

Heinz would win Allegheny, Washington, Erie, Fayette, and Greene, only Allegheny and Erie convincingly.  I can easily see him losing badly in the Northeast and in the Lehigh Valley, plus the Southeast would be his by large margins.  Overall 53-46 Santorum.