Casey +7

[12th Doctor]

The way I understand it, the Republicans have already woken up, and are certainly not taken a Santorum win for granted.

The options they have are: just fight as hard as they can and hope for the best; or pull Santorum out.  The latter option means that the Republicans can write-off a win at all, but they still get to keep Santorum as a popular figure with national name-recognition.  A possible bid to take on Ed Rendell has already been floated on this forum.

You are quite right, but I don't think that Casey has an edge either.

No other candidate could beat Santorum (period).

Casey only wins if Santorum fails to sperate Casey from his father (period).

Santorum would win in a campaign that was dependent only on issues (period).

Casey is ahead right now because he is a Casey (period).

And, also, Santorum v Casey is going to be a national race in its scope.  Only two people in PA have any expirience running a national campaign:
Rick Santorum and Arlen Specter.

[12th Doctor]

Santorum would win in a campaign that was dependent only on issues (period).

then shouldn't Bush have won Pennsylvania?

Casey is not Kerry.

[12th Doctor]

He seems like he'd be a much better candidate because of his father and more in touch with socially conservative democrats. How was Kerry a better candidate than Casey?

Because Kerry could win suburban voters (that's right, the people you hate) in Philadelphia and Teresa brought in a strong cooalition of support from the Pittsburgh area (which, even still, was weaker than the support Gore got, but stronger than he would have recieved without her).

[12th Doctor]

Um, every PA Republican on this board understands that Casey is a good candidate. But, Casey is still at the same point he was in the last poll, and will continue to be in this position until the campaign begins for real. 

Honestly, the more I think about this, the more I think Santorum will pull it out.

[12th Doctor]

He seems like he'd be a much better candidate because of his father and more in touch with socially conservative democrats. How was Kerry a better candidate than Casey?

Because Kerry could win suburban voters (that's right, the people you hate)

If they liked Kerry, how the hell could they like Santorum? Are you saying Kerry was a stronger candidate than Casey is?

Apart from name, yes.

[12th Doctor]

He seems like he'd be a much better candidate because of his father and more in touch with socially conservative democrats. How was Kerry a better candidate than Casey?

Because Kerry could win suburban voters (that's right, the people you hate)

If they liked Kerry, how the hell could they like Santorum? Are you saying Kerry was a stronger candidate than Casey is?

Economics.  Those SE PA, suburban voters are libertarians.  Some may not vote for Mr. Populist over Santorum, who supports conservative economic ideas.

Granted Casey may not appeal to them, but Santorum's off the wall social conservatism will be an even worse fit for those in SE PA.  The Philly burbs may not exactly like Casey, but their will be a very strong ABS vote in that region which Casey will greatly benefit from

I'm sick and tired of people saying things like "off the wall social conservatism".  Santorum is very normal, save the comment he made about homosexuals, and if you people honestly think that that is going to be any issue at all in this campaign, you don't know jack about this state.

[12th Doctor]

Please, Specter would have crushed Casey.  A four term US Senator against an Auditor General!?  What in the Hell does the Auditor General do anyway (I know, but that is what the Average Joe would ask).

All of Philadelphia would have voted Specter.

[12th Doctor]

note: if I was Santorum, I would hit Casey on judges. If Casey goes with Democrats in filibustering judges, pro-life judges won't be confirmed, thus negating Casey's value as a pro-lifer and keeping that vote with Santorum.
 

If I was Santorum I would hit Casey on his lack of interest in the U.S. Senate.  In reality Casey does NOT want the job.   He wants to be governor and everyone knows that.  He has already stated that he will not commit to serve a full term if elected.  That alone should make PA voters second guess voting for him.  I have a feeling alot of Democrats are going to be upset with the result of this race.  Im not holding my breath for a Casey victory, thats for sure.

I already mentioned that some time ago.  I think that the way Casey launched into this has hurt his credability.

He didn't run in '04 because, he said, he didn't want the job.  Now he turns around and runs, thus abandoning a job that he was voted and entrusted with by PA voters, including myself, and runs for a possition that he thinks will be a better stepping stone to the governorship, which everyone knows is what he really wants.

[12th Doctor]

How do you know if Swann would be a good candidate?  Have you ever seen him in a debate or even a prepared policy speech? 

Yes, acctually.  He made several speeches all accross western PA for Bush in 04.  He was quite polished and could speak to working class audiences just as well as he could wealthy donors.

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I wouls say that about 40% of PAers are Steelers fans, or, at leasty, follow the team as equally as they follow, say, the Eagles.  The only area where his backround might hurt him is Erie, where about 1/3 of the fans are Browns fans.

Even though this wouldn't and shouldn't put him over tha top, it still gives him needed name recongnition, which none of the other GOP candidates have.

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This argument acctually helps the case for Swann.  He is polling 42-46% and has not even reached out to the eastern half of the state yet.  Only room to grow there.

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This would have worked in 2002, definatly, but Schweiker has lost big name status.  Also, I think he means it when he says he is out of politics for good.  If he really wanted to be elected governor, 2002 was the time, he could have easily won.

[12th Doctor]

40% of Pennsylvanians are not Steelers fans.  Perhaps 40% of football fans in Pennsylvania are Steelers fans, but only maybe one-third of Americans are footballs fans (a bare majority of men plus a small minority of women).   And half of those Steeler fans are too young to be fans of the Lynn Swann era Steelers.  So only about 5% of PA voters could really be described as "1970's Pittsburgh Steeler fans."

And in the latest Franklin & Marshall poll, Swann is polling at 29%, not 42-46%.

Obviously, you have never been to Western Pennsylvania during the football season if you think that only "a bare majority of men and a small minority of women" are Steelers fans.  Its like a religion here.  It is like being a Mormon is Utah.  If you aren't, your in the minority.  What is more is that the average Steelers fan identifies with the team.  Whereas most other fans would say:

"The Jets are having a bad year".

we say

"We are having a bad year".

You cannot imagine how many times I have been yelled at by non-Steelers fans for saying "we" when I talk about the team.

Almost everyone I know, men and women, are crazed fans during the season.

[12th Doctor]

A Tribune Review (a radical facist newspaper around here) poll shows Casey ahead by 1%.

Don't give me that bullsh**t.  I read the Trib because their editorial and oppinion pages acctually cover both sides, as opposed to the Post-Gazette which has its editorial page on the front page and a propaganda page where the editorial and opinion sections should be.