latest Betfair odds

[IceSpear]

Very interesting that the betters are sticking with Jeb over Romney for now...

[Mr. Morden]

Despite having explicitly ruled out a run, Ryan is still ahead of folks like Jindal, Pence, and Santorum.

Winning party
Dems 62.9
GOP 42.9

Democratic nominee
Clinton 75.2
Warren 12.8
Biden 6.2
Gilllibrand 3.1
O'Malley 3.1
Cuomo 2.5
Webb 2.2

Republican nominee
Bush 29.2
Romney 17.4
Rubio 13.4
Paul 13.1
Walker 10.9
Christie 8.8
Cruz 6.4
Perry 5.8
Huckabee 5.0
Ryan 3.1
Jindal 2.9
Pence 2.8
Martinez 2.2
Santorum 1.8

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Winning party
Dems 62.3
GOP 37.0
other 2.8

GOP nomination
Romney 21.1
Palin 13.6
Thune 11.7
Pawlenty 10.8
Huckabee 8.7
Daniels 8.0
Gingrich 4.3
Pence 3.5
Barbour 2.1
Giuliani 1.9
Bachmann 1.8
Christie 1.7
Paul 1.7
Huntsman 1.6
Trump 1.5

[Mr. Morden]

Bush, Romney, and Paul all drop somewhat as Walker surges into third place for the GOP nomination.

Dems

Clinton 80.0
Warren 12.8
Biden 6.2

GOP

Bush 28.0
Romney 16.3
Walker 14.9
Rubio 13.4
Paul 11.6
Christie 8.4
Cruz 6.4
Perry 5.8
Huckabee 5.0

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

GOP nomination
Romney 22.5
Thune 12.9
Palin 12.8
Huckabee 9.8
Pawlenty 9.8
Daniels 7.9
Gingrich 4.7
Bachmann 4.0
Barbour 3.0
Huntsman 3.0
Giuliani 2.9
Christie 1.9
DeMint 1.7
Trump 1.6
Johnson 1.5

8 years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 48.2
Obama 17.7
Edwards 15.5
Gore 11.1
Richardson 2.0
Biden 2.0
Vilsack 0.9
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.6
Warner 0.5

Republicans

McCain 40.1
Giuliani 18.0
Romney 17.0
Huckabee 5.8
Gingrich 5.1
Hagel 4.2
Brownback 3.3
Rice 2.1
Cheney 1.0
Powell 0.9
Bush 0.7
Hunter 0.6

[Mr. Morden]

Romney slips further, putting Walker in a tie with him for second place:

GOP nomination

Bush 28.4
Romney 14.9
Walker 14.9
Rubio 13.8
Paul 10.9
Christie 8.4
Cruz 7.0
Perry 5.8
Huckabee 4.2

Also of interest, winning individual:

Clinton 49.2
Bush 14.9
Rubio 7.5
Romney 6.5
Paul 6.2
Christie 4.2
Walker 4.2
Warren 4.2

However, the winning individual market has low volume, so I don't think it's really caught up to where the nomination markets are.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Has anyone used PredictIt? It seems to do the same thing, but it is aimed at Americans. I don't know why that is legal if Betfair and especially InTrade were not. Could it just be a scam or too low volume due to being new?

[Mr. Morden]

Has anyone used PredictIt? It seems to do the same thing, but it is aimed at Americans. I don't know why that is legal if Betfair and especially InTrade were not. Could it just be a scam or too low volume due to being new?

It's legal because it's nonprofit, limits wagering on any market to 5000 people, caps each individual investment to $850, and uses its results for research purposes:

http://www.politico.com/story/2014/10/predictit-online-politics-stock-market-112374.html

The Iowa Electronic Markets do basically the same thing, and abide by similar restrictions.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney drops down to 1.3 on his announcement, and Rubio is the biggest beneficiary, surging back up to 2nd place:

Democrats
Clinton 79.4
Warren 12.5
Biden 6.2
Gillibrand 3.1
O'Malley 3.1

Republicans
Bush 31.0
Rubio 20.4
Walker 13.8
Paul 11.6
Christie 9.5
Cruz 7.0
Perry 5.8
Huckabee 4.0
Jindal 2.9
Pence 2.8
Ryan 2.8

Eight year ago today on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 46.7
Obama 18.8
Edwards 15.3
Gore 10.2
Richardson 2.3
Biden 1.8
Vilsack 1.3
Clark 1.1
Dodd 0.6
Warner 0.5

Republicans
McCain 38.3
Giuliani 18.6
Romney 17.2
Hagel 5.5
Gingrich 5.0
Huckabee 4.5
Brownback 3.7
Powell 1.6
Cheney 1.0
Bush 0.7
Allen 0.7
Hunter 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Pataki 0.4
Thompson 0.4

[Mr. Morden]

After several days of volatility following Romney's announcement, Walker surges up to more than 20, and is back in second place.

Up: Walker
Down: Bush, Rubio, Christie, Cruz

Bush 30.0
Walker 20.8
Rubio 17.4
Paul 11.4
Christie 7.2
Cruz 5.5
Perry 5.5
Huckabee 4.0
Pence 2.8
Jindal 2.2
Carson 1.8
Martinez 1.8
Santorum 1.8

[Mr. Morden]

Perry now ahead of Cruz...

Democrats
Clinton 78.1
Warren 10.5
Biden 4.0
Gillibrand 2.5
Cuomo 2.1
O'Malley 2.1
Webb 1.8

Republicans
Bush 30.1
Walker 19.6
Rubio 17.4
Paul 10.5
Christie 6.8
Perry 5.5
Cruz 5.0
Huckabee 4.0
Carson 1.8
Jindal 1.8
Martinez 1.8
Santorum 1.8
Pence 1.4
Romney 1.3

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 23.6
Palin 11.7
Daniels 9.9
Pawlenty 8.9
Huckabee 8.6
Thune 6.1
Gingrich 5.4
Huntsman 5.4
Barbour 3.8
Bachmann 3.5
Trump 2.7
Christie 2.0
Paul 1.8
Giuliani 1.6
DeMint 1.5

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 47.6
Obama 19.7
Edwards 13.9
Gore 9.4
Richardson 2.6
Biden 1.2
Clark 1.1
Vilsack 1.0
Warner 0.7
Dodd 0.5


Republicans
McCain 38.5
Giuliani 20.5
Romney 18.1
Brownback 5.2
Gingrich 5.0
Hagel 4.2
Huckabee 4.2
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.3
Powell 1.3
Bloomberg 0.8
Thompson 0.7
Bush 0.6
Hunter 0.6
Allen 0.4

[IceSpear]

Democrats
Clinton 78.1
Warren 10.5
Biden 4.0
Gillibrand 2.5
Cuomo 2.1
O'Malley 2.1
Webb 1.8

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 47.6
Obama 19.7
Edwards 13.9
Gore 9.4
Richardson 2.6
Biden 1.2
Clark 1.1
Vilsack 1.0
Warner 0.7
Dodd 0.5

b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-but just as inevitable!!111!1!!!! NOBODY GAVE THE JUNIOR SENATOR FROM ILLINOIS WHO CAME OUT OF NOWHERE EVEN A 1% CHANCE!!11!!111!!11111!1111!!!!1!!1

[Mr. Illini]

Democrats
Clinton 78.1
Warren 10.5
Biden 4.0
Gillibrand 2.5
Cuomo 2.1
O'Malley 2.1
Webb 1.8

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 47.6
Obama 19.7
Edwards 13.9
Gore 9.4
Richardson 2.6
Biden 1.2
Clark 1.1
Vilsack 1.0
Warner 0.7
Dodd 0.5

b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-but just as inevitable!!111!1!!!! NOBODY GAVE THE JUNIOR SENATOR FROM ILLINOIS WHO CAME OUT OF NOWHERE EVEN A 1% CHANCE!!11!!111!!11111!1111!!!!1!!1

You make me want Hillary to be primaried even more than I already do.

[IceSpear]

Democrats
Clinton 78.1
Warren 10.5
Biden 4.0
Gillibrand 2.5
Cuomo 2.1
O'Malley 2.1
Webb 1.8

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 47.6
Obama 19.7
Edwards 13.9
Gore 9.4
Richardson 2.6
Biden 1.2
Clark 1.1
Vilsack 1.0
Warner 0.7
Dodd 0.5

b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-b-but just as inevitable!!111!1!!!! NOBODY GAVE THE JUNIOR SENATOR FROM ILLINOIS WHO CAME OUT OF NOWHERE EVEN A 1% CHANCE!!11!!111!!11111!1111!!!!1!!1

You make me want Hillary to be primaried even more than I already do.

Well, I suppose it would be annoying when false "2008 redux!" talking points are debunked by empiricial data if I was on the anti-Hillary side.

But anyway, you can hope all you want. It's just the delusion of certain individuals that's annoying. I hated Jim Inhofe and wanted him to lose in 2014, yet you didn't see me pelting the forum with hackneyed platitudes like "Inhofe is not inevitable!", "anything can happen in politics!", "the election is still ___ months away!", "a week is a lifetime in politics!", etc. In fact, I'm pretty sure the same thing applies to 90% of the forum.

[Mr. Morden]

Paul is rebounding, and Christie is sinking further.  Cruz might catch up to Christie for 5th place in the near future.  Ryan has a dead cat bounce.

Democrats
Clinton 76.9
Warren 9.5
Biden 3.3
Gillibrand 2.5

Republicans
Bush 31.0
Walker 19.6
Rubio 17.4
Paul 13.1
Christie 5.4
Cruz 5.0
Perry 4.3
Huckabee 3.8
Ryan 2.9
Carson 1.5

Four years ago today on Intrade:

GOP presidential nominee

Romney 23.1
Palin 10.9
Daniels 10.2
Pawlenty 8.9
Huckabee 8.4
Thune 8.0
Huntsman 5.2
Gingrich 5.0
Christie 3.1
Barbour 2.7
Bachmann 2.6
Paul 2.1
Trump 1.8
J. Bush 1.6
Giuliani 1.5

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 51.5
Obama 22.5
Edwards 11.7
Gore 6.7
Richardson 3.1
Biden 1.5
Vilsack 0.9
Clark 0.8
Dodd 0.8
Warner 0.7
Kerry 0.3



Republicans
McCain 34.0
Giuliani 26.7
Romney 18.6
Gingrich 5.4
Hagel 4.3
Huckabee 4.3
Brownback 3.4
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.1
Hunter 0.6
Bush 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5

[Mr. Morden]

Final update before CPAC:

GOP nominee

Bush 31.4
Walker 19.6
Rubio 17.7
Paul 12.8
Christie 5.4
Cruz 5.0
Huckabee 3.8
Carson 3.1
Perry 3.1
Ryan 2.9
Pence 2.6

Dem. nominee

Clinton 75.8
Warren 9.5
Biden 4.2
Patrick 3.1
Gillibrand 2.5
Webb 2.1

Four years ago on Intrade, at this time:

GOP nominee

Romney 25.0
Pawlenty 11.8
Daniels 11.4
Palin 9.6
Huckabee 8.2
Gingrich 5.5
Huntsman 4.9
Bachmann 3.9
Barbour 3.5
Christie 3.1
Trump 2.2
Paul 2.1
J. Bush 1.6

Dem nominee

Obama 89.7
Clinton 5.2
Biden 4.0

Eight years ago on Intrade, at this time:

Democrats
Clinton 51.0
Obama 23.4
Edwards 11.0
Gore 10.0
Richardson 4.0
Biden 1.5
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.5
Kerry 0.3

Republicans
Giuliani 31.7
McCain 30.3
Romney 18.0
Gingrich 6.0
Huckabee 4.9
Hagel 4.5
Brownback 3.5
Cheney 1.4
Rice 1.2
Powell 1.0
Bush 0.6
Bloomberg 0.5
Hunter 0.5

[Mr. Morden]

Biden in February 2007, facing an open field: 1.5
Biden in February 2011, when Obama is the incumbent president, running unopposed for the nomination: 4.0
Biden in February 2015, facing an open field: 4.2

Each election cycle, he gets a little stronger. 

[Mr. Morden]

Post-CPAC update: Walker gains, Paul drops, and Cruz passes Christie for 5th place:

Bush 30.5
Walker 20.8
Rubio 17.7
Paul 10.9
Cruz 5.0
Christie 4.3
Huckabee 3.8
Carson 2.9
Ryan 2.9
Pence 2.5

[Mr. Morden]

Someone just bought a share of Webb at a very high price, which makes the Democratic market make much less sense than usual.  Total is now way over 100...

Democrats
Clinton 77.5
Webb 25.4
Warren 13.1
Biden 6.2

Republicans
Bush 32.9
Walker 20.8
Rubio 17.4
Paul 10.7
Cruz 5.0
Christie 4.3
Huckabee 3.8
Carson 2.6
Perry 2.6
Pence 2.5

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 25.3
Pawlenty 12.2
Daniels 9.8
Huckabee 8.9
Palin 6.5
Gingrich 6.3
Barbour 4.3
Huntsman 4.3
Bachmann 4.2
Christie 2.9
Trump 2.4
Paul 1.9
J. Bush 1.3

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 46.0
Obama 24.5
Gore 12.9
Edwards 9.3
Richardson 3.2
Biden 1.6
Clark 0.5
Warner 0.5
Dodd 0.4

Republicans
Giuliani 34.9
McCain 30.0
Romney 19.7
Gingrich 4.9
Huckabee 4.7
Hagel 4.3
Brownback 3.2
Rice 1.6
Hunter 0.7
Cheney 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Bush 0.4
Powell 0.4

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

LOL at how 2nd place is doing better than 8 years ago.

[Mr. Morden]

LOL at how 2nd place is doing better than 8 years ago.

That was just a one-off crazily priced buy from some guy buying a share of Webb (perhaps Webb himself, to make himself feel better).  The Webb price yesterday was only 4.2, and I expect that by tomorrow, it'll be back to something like that.

[PresidentTRUMP]

Wow Webb at 25% now?! Hmmm does someone know something and do I need to put some money on it as well??? LOL JK

[Mr. Morden]

Wow Webb at 25% now?! Hmmm does someone know something and do I need to put some money on it as well??? LOL JK

Like I said, I think it's just one guy who went nuts and bought at a crazy price.  It'll probably be back to normal tomorrow.

[SPC]

Why were betting markets so bearish on Romney four years ago? It seemed pretty obvious he was going to get the nomination by default, and even adding up all those names seemed to imply that bettors thought there was a 10% chance someone else would get the nomination.

[PresidentTRUMP]

At this point one of these 4 will be the next president of the US in no particular order:

Bush
Hillary
Rubio
Walker

There could be a sleeper on the dems side to challenge Hillary and win the nomination, just not sure who it will be.

On the republican side it seems obvious to me on of these three will be the republican nominee:

Bush
Rubio
Walker

If Rubio or Walker win the nomination I see them choosing the other one as their VP.

Everyone else on the Rebublican side might win a primeree or two but i can guarantee they don't win the nominee; paul, cruz, Jindal, Kasich (possible VP), Huckabee, Santorum, Christie, Graham, etc.

All of these candidates WILL NOT win the nomination, some are running for the air time and others actually think they can win but won't come close.

If your republican it will be one of those three

If your a democrat it will be Hillary or possibly a dark horse, most likely Hillary pretty much unopposed, or by some people who have no chance.

I would place my money on Rubio or Hillary, depending on the circumstances in 2016.

[Mr. Morden]

Why were betting markets so bearish on Romney four years ago? It seemed pretty obvious he was going to get the nomination by default, and even adding up all those names seemed to imply that bettors thought there was a 10% chance someone else would get the nomination.

Plenty of folks had doubts about Romney.  He'd created the prototype to Obamacare, and the GOP primary electorate seemed eager for some kind of anti-Romney candidate.

In the February/March 2011 "Who will win the nomination?" thread, only 46% of voters here on Atlas even thought he was the favorite:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=132642.0

Not Romeny, I can't see how he can win with the Republican primary electorate, it doesn't really matter if everyone who's running against him are unknowns.  Huckabee beat Romney in Iowa after all he spent in it, and Huckabee was about as unknown as you got back in 2008.    

[SPC]

25% is not 45%, although I suppose it may have been fair to give field a 10% chance when Perry and Santorum both emerged out of nowhere to become major contenders at one point.