latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

25% is not 45%, although I suppose it may have been fair to give field a 10% chance when Perry and Santorum both emerged out of nowhere to become major contenders at one point.

25% is the probability of winning that the betting markets were giving him.  45% is the %age of people on the forum who thought he was more likely to win than anyone else in the field.  If, for example, everyone on the forum thought that Romney had a 25% of winning the nomination, but they all also thought that no one else in the field individually had a greater chance than that, then 100% of them would have voted for Romney in that poll.

So what I'm saying is that, for a candidate who slightly more than half of the forum can't even agree is the frontrunner, a ~25% chance of winning in the betting markets is about what you'd expect.

[Mr. Morden]

Perry now tied with Cruz for fifth place...

Up: Perry
Down: Bush

Bush 30.5
Walker 21.7
Rubio 16.8
Paul 10.5
Cruz 4.2
Perry 4.2
Christie 4.0
Huckabee 3.8
Carson 2.9
Pence 2.6

Roughly four years ago at this time:

Romney 24.6
Pawlenty 18.1
Daniels 10.2
Huckabee 7.2
Palin 6.2
Gingrich 5.7
Bachmann 4.2
Barbour 4.2
Huntsman 4.0
Christie 2.8
Trump 2.5
Paul 1.4
J. Bush 1.0
Giuliani 1.0
Rubio 0.9

[Mr. Morden]

First update post-Trump exploratory committee, and post-news that Cruz is going to enter the race.  Everyone already knew that Cruz was running, so it's had no impact on his share price, at least so far.  In fact, he's slightly down from last week, and Christie is back in fifth place.  But the Trump announcement moved him up to 2.5.  Four years ago at this time, Trump was at 2.6 and in 11th place on Intrade.  Today, he's at 2.5 and in 11th place on Betfair.

GOP nomination

Bush 33.9
Walker 21.7
Rubio 17.4
Paul 10.5
Christie 4.0
Huckabee 3.8
Cruz 3.4
Perry 3.4
Carson 2.9
Pence 2.6
Trump 2.5

Winning individual

Clinton 41.5
Bush 17.4
Rubio 8.4
Walker 7.8
Paul 5.3
Warren 5.3
Biden 3.3
Christie 1.9

Roughly four years ago at this time on Intrade:

GOP nominee

Romney 24.1
Pawlenty 19.3
Daniels 8.9
Huckabee 6.8
Palin 6.4
Barbour 5.2
Gingrich 5.0
Bachmann 4.8
Huntsman 3.9
Christie 3.0
Trump 2.6
Paul 1.7
Giuliani 1.0
J. Bush 0.9

Winning individual

Obama 60.8
Romney 11.6
Pawlenty 9.0
Huckabee 4.9
Daniels 4.7
Gingrich 2.9
Paul 2.0
Biden 1.6
Palin 0.5

[Mr. Morden]

Last update before Paul's announcement: Cruz back up to fifth place.

Up: Bush, Cruz
Down: Walker, Huckabee

Bush 35.6
Walker 19.3
Rubio 18.3
Paul 11.4
Cruz 5.3
Christie 3.6
Perry 3.3
Huckabee 2.6
Pence 2.6
Trump 2.6
Carson 2.5

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 26.2
Pawlenty 16.7
Daniels 9.0
Bachmann 7.1
Barbour 5.5
Palin 5.1
Trump 5.1
Huckabee 5.0
Huntsman 4.5
Gingrich 4.0
Christie 2.4
Paul 2.0
Ryan 1.3
Giuliani 1.0
Johnson 1.0

[© tweed]

short Rubio, IMO

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

short Rubio, IMO

I've been doubting him all along, and I still don't think he will win the nomination, but he has the potential to really become a favorite and rise to the top quickly. He might be slightly overpriced (especially because of polling numbers, but it doesn't justify a short because he could erupt and that's what people are paying for. I'm not really a fan, but it's enough to make me nervous.

The only one I am short is Bush because he is actually overpriced considering his room to grow isn't that big, he doesn't have an advantage in the early states, and he seems prone to a collapse for many reasons which I have specified outside this thread several times. There is no way he is more likely to win than the virtually inevitable Romney was (in absence of a dark horse Christie or perhaps Daniels. Perry was a joke) - that was obvious to me at the time as much as I hated him. The only advantage he may have is in fundraising, but it doesn't outweigh some serious negatives.

Christie at 3.2 is an outstanding buy even though I have my doubts about him actually becoming the nominee. There could be real value in that even if he has a single good poll performance. The negatives should decline. He's just at a real low right now.

[The Free North]

short Rubio, IMO

Time to do that was a few months ago

[Mr. Morden]

First it was Webb, now it's O'Malley.  What looks like a single rogue bettor drove up O'Malley's price to an absurdly high value, but I doubt it'll last a day.  All the other betting sites have O'Malley below both Warren and Biden.

In any case, Clinton now up to 80, following her announcement.  And Warren drops below 10.

On the GOP side, big gains for Huckabee (now tied for fourth).  And Paul has actually dropped somewhat since his announcement.

Democrats
Clinton 80.0
O'Malley 14.9
Warren 8.8
Biden 6.5

Republicans
Bush 34.7
Walker 20.0
Rubio 18.6
Huckabee 10.5
Paul 10.5
Cruz 5.5
Christie 2.6
Perry 2.6
Pence 2.4
Trump 2.3

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 25.5
Pawlenty 15.7
Daniels 8.8
Trump 8.8
Bachmann 7.0
Huckabee 6.7
Palin 4.3
Huntsman 4.2
Barbour 3.7
Gingrich 3.1
Christie 2.5
Paul 2.2
Johnson 1.2
Ryan 1.1
Giuliani 0.9
J. Bush 0.7
Santorum 0.7

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 47.9
Obama 30.0
Gore 9.2
Edwards 8.7
Richardson 2.9
Clark 0.5
Biden 0.4
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 33.0
McCain 18.9
Thompson 18.9
Romney 17.8
Gingrich 3.2
Hagel 2.7
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 1.4
Bloomberg 1.0
Brownback 1.0
T. Thompson 0.8
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.3
Tancredo 0.3
Paul 0.3
Powell 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Santorum 0.1

[IceSpear]

Morden, just out of curiosity, how are you calculating these? In the initial post it says to take the reciprocal of the odds listed, but they don't seem to match with the figures you posted (ex: Bush is at 5/2 which would be 40%, but you have him at 34.7%.)

[Mr. Morden]

Morden, just out of curiosity, how are you calculating these? In the initial post it says to take the reciprocal of the odds listed, but they don't seem to match with the figures you posted (ex: Bush is at 5/2 which would be 40%, but you have him at 34.7%.)

Sorry, to clarify, I'm giving the numbers from "Betfair Exchange", rather than the conventional Betfair bookie numbers.  Betfair Exchange, as far as I can tell, works like Intrade did, in being "peer-to-peer" between users, rather than having the prices set by bookies.  Betfair Exchange is listed on the right hand side of the Oddschecker page.  If you view the #s in decimal form (which you can do under "site settings" on the left), then it currently lists Bush at 2.88, and 1/2.88 = 34.7.

[IceSpear]

Morden, just out of curiosity, how are you calculating these? In the initial post it says to take the reciprocal of the odds listed, but they don't seem to match with the figures you posted (ex: Bush is at 5/2 which would be 40%, but you have him at 34.7%.)

Sorry, to clarify, I'm giving the numbers from "Betfair Exchange", rather than the conventional Betfair bookie numbers.  Betfair Exchange, as far as I can tell, works like Intrade did, in being "peer-to-peer" between users, rather than having the prices set by bookies.  Betfair Exchange is listed on the right hand side of the Oddschecker page.  If you view the #s in decimal form (which you can do under "site settings" on the left), then it currently lists Bush at 2.88, and 1/2.88 = 34.7.

Ah, got it. Thanks.

[bobloblaw]

short Rubio, IMO

Time to do that was a few months ago

Short Bush if anyone. He is losing in IA and NH and tied in SC. He loses the first two states he is done.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio lost his second place standing several months ago during Romney-mentum, which was then replaced by Walker-mentum.  He's now regained second place (just barely).  Also, Christie's at an all-time low, having had quite an epic collapse.  He was above 10 as recently as December.

Up: Rubio
Down: Paul, Huckabee

Bush 33.9
Rubio 20.4
Walker 20.0
Paul 9.1
Huckabee 7.8
Cruz 5.3
Perry 3.4
Carson 2.8
Christie 2.1
Fiorina 2.1
Pence 2.1

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 24.4
Pawlenty 15.7
Daniels 8.5
Huckabee 8.4
Trump 7.0
Bachmann 6.7
Palin 5.6
Huntsman 5.1
Barbour 3.4
Gingrich 2.9
Paul 2.0
Ryan 2.0
Johnson 1.7
Christie 1.2

[Mr. Morden]

Betfair *still* doesn't have a market listed for Kasich, but he is listed on other sites, with Totesport the latest site to offer a new share price for him.  So I'll list their Kasich price alongside all the Betfair prices for everyone else…

Up: Rubio, Fiorina
Down: Christie, Perry

Bush 33.9
Rubio 22.6
Walker 20.4
Paul 9.5
Huckabee 7.5
Cruz 5.0
Kasich 3.8 (Totesport)
Carson 3.3
Fiorina 3.3
Pence 2.1
Ryan 1.9
Trump 1.8
Perry 1.4
Jindal 1.2
Martinez 1.2
Christie 1.1
Romney 1.1

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 23.8
Pawlenty 17.5
Daniels 13.2
Huntsman 10.0
Huckabee 8.9
Bachmann 6.0
Trump 5.2
Palin 5.1
Paul 3.1
Gingrich 2.9
Cain 2.0
Christie 1.4
Ryan 1.2
Johnson 0.8
Giuliani 0.7
Santorum 0.6

Those were the share prices on Intrade just after the first Republican debate.  Yes, back in 2011, we had a Republican presidential debate on May 5th.

[Mr. Morden]

Lots of volatility recently...and Walker back in 2nd place.

Democrats
Clinton 78.1
Biden 10.5
Warren 7.0
Sanders 6.8

Up: Bush, Walker, Christie, Perry
Down: Rubio, Cruz

Republicans
Bush 39.4
Walker 22.2
Rubio 21.2
Paul 9.1
Huckabee 7.2
Kasich 3.8 (Totesport)
Christie 3.6
Cruz 3.4
Carson 3.3
Perry 3.3
Fiorina 2.5
Ryan 1.9
Pence 1.8
Trump 1.5
Jindal 1.2
Martinez 1.2

Four years ago today on Intrade:

GOP nomination

Romney 25.1
Pawlenty 15.3
Huntsman 12.8
Daniels 10.5
Palin 5.6
Gingrich 4.3
Bachmann 4.0
Trump 3.8
Cain 3.7
Paul 3.2
Christie 2.6
Huckabee 2.5
Ryan 1.0
Giuliani 0.8

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 50.7
Obama 28.0
Gore 9.7
Edwards 7.7
Richardson 2.1
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1
Bayh 0.1

Republicans
McCain 29.5
Giuliani 28.8
Romney 17.6
Thompson 14.2
Hagel 3.3
Gingrich 2.5
Huckabee 2.3
Bloomberg 1.2
Rice 1.1
Brownback 0.5
Paul 0.5
T. Thompson
Cheney 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

[IceSpear]

Jeb is rising despite his recent missteps and fall in the polls?

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton over 80.  Bush loses all of his recent gains.

Democrats
Clinton 82.0
Warren 6.5
Biden 5.8
Sanders 5.5
O'Malley 5.0

Up: Cruz
Down: Bush

Republicans
Bush 33.4
Walker 22.2
Rubio 21.2
Paul 9.1
Huckabee 7.0
Cruz 5.0
Kasich 3.8 (Totesport)
Carson 3.3
Perry 3.3
Christie 3.1
Fiorina 2.5

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 26.0
Pawlenty 18.4
Huntsman 12.0
Daniels 10.7
Cain 6.0
Palin 5.8
Bachmann 5.7
Perry 3.7
Christie 3.1
Gingrich 2.9
Paul 2.7
Johnson 1.0
Ryan 1.0
Giuliani 0.7
Santorum 0.7

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 51.2
Obama 28.4
Gore 9.8
Edwards 7.3
Richardson 2.5
Biden 0.5
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Warner 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 28.1
McCain 23.4
Romney 20.0
Thompson 16.6
Gingrich 3.7
Hagel 2.6
Huckabee 2.6
Bloomberg 1.1
Rice 1.1
Paul 0.5
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.5
J. Bush 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Heading into Santorum's announcement, he's trailing non-candidates who've already said they're not running, like Pence and Romney.  But at least he's slightly ahead of where he was four years ago on Intrade!  Also, Rubio again retakes second place from Walker, and still no Kasich market on Betfair Exchange for some reason.  Most recently traded Kasich share from another market is from Paddy Power.

Bush 32.9
Rubio 20.8
Walker 20.0
Paul 9.1
Huckabee 6.8
Kasich 4.8 (Paddypower)
Carson 3.4
Cruz 3.4
Fiorina 3.3
Perry 2.9
Christie 2.8
Pence 1.8
Trump 1.5
Martinez 1.2
Jindal 1.1
Romney 1.1
Ryan 1.1
Santorum 1.0

Four years ago today on Intrade:

The race continues to be dominated by Mormons, women, blacks, Minnesotans, and combinations thereof.

GOP nomination

Romney 28.3
Pawlenty 21.0
Huntsman 16.0
Palin 8.9
Cain 5.7
Bachmann 5.5
Perry 4.3
Christie 2.1
Paul 2.1
Gingrich 1.7
Giuliani 1.2
Ryan 1.0
Santorum 0.7
Johnson 0.4
J. Bush 0.3

[© tweed]

Rubio should be closer to 10 than 20 (imo)

no, I won't be putting my money where my mouth is

[PresidentTRUMP]

If I were a betting man I would put my money on Rubio and Biden as the nominees. Would take the long shot with Biden.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Walker-Clinton race

[The Other Castro]

If I were a betting man I would put my money on Rubio and Biden as the nominees. Would take the long shot with Biden.

You wouldn't be a betting man for very long then.

[IceSpear]

If I were a betting man I would put my money on Rubio and Biden as the nominees. Would take the long shot with Biden.

You wouldn't be a betting man for very long then.

To be fair to him, there are apparently still a lot of very stupid people betting on Elizabeth Warren.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I think they seem to be normalizing. I know I would've been short Rubio awhile ago, but he looks a bit low at the moment, but still not nearly as much as Jeb Bush looks high. Fiorina a bit high and Paul quite a bit too low, but otherwise it's beginning to look much better. Bush should've never been near 40 and should slowly dwindle towards 20.

[Mr. Morden]

Still no Kasich market on Betfair Exchange, so going with latest transaction on Ladbrokes.

Democrats
Clinton 75.8
Biden 9.1
Warren 9.1
O'Malley 7.5

Up: Cruz
Down: Bush, Huckabee, Fiorina

Republicans
Bush 31.8
Rubio 20.8
Walker 20.8
Paul 8.4
Cruz 5.0
Huckabee 5.0
Kasich 3.8 (Ladbrokes)
Carson 3.1
Christie 2.5
Perry 2.4
Fiorina 2.2

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

GOP presidential nominee:

Romney 29.4
Pawlenty 19.4
Huntsman 15.5
Palin 5.7
Perry 5.7
Bachmann 5.5
Cain 4.5
Christie 3.1
Giuliani 2.1
Paul 1.9
Gingrich 1.8
Ryan 1.3
Santorum 0.7
Pataki 0.5

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 51.0
Obama 25.1
Gore 10.7
Edwards 7.2
Richardson 2.3
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.1

Republicans
Thompson 24.9
Giuliani 24.4
Romney 22.0
McCain 17.0
Paul 2.9
Gingrich 2.1
Huckabee 2.0
Rice 0.9
Brownback 0.5
Cheney 0.4
Bloomberg 0.4
J. Bush 0.4
Hagel 0.4
T. Thompson 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Powell 0.1