latest Betfair odds

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Still no Kasich market on Betfair Exchange, so going with latest transaction on Ladbrokes.

Democrats
Clinton 75.8
Biden 9.1
Warren 9.1
O'Malley 7.5

Biden and Warren but no Sanders? What the heck is this?

[Mr. Morden]

A bunch of non-Bush Republicans (but especially Rubio) are surging.

Democrats
Clinton 79.4
Sanders 9.5
Biden 8.1
O'Malley 7.2
Warren 7.0

Up: Rubio, Walker, Paul, Fiorina
Down: Cruz

Republicans
Bush 31.4
Rubio 26.0
Walker 22.2
Paul 10.5
Huckabee 5.0
Kasich 3.8 (Ladbrokes)
Cruz 3.3
Fiorina 3.3
Carson 2.9
Christie 2.1
Perry 2.1

From roughly four years ago on Intrade:

Romney 29.4
Pawlenty 18.4
Perry 13.1
Huntsman 12.6
Palin 6.0
Bachmann 5.2
Cain 3.5
Christie 2.4
Paul 2.2
Giuliani 1.9
Gingrich 1.0
Ryan 1.0
Pataki 0.8
Santorum 0.7
Johnson 0.4

[© tweed]

I'd shave about half off of Rubio's number and give 7 pts each to Bush and Walker.  Biden and O'Malley also appear overvalued to me ("to you?"  "yes, to me.")

[Mr. Morden]

A buying spree on Rubio in the past couple of days puts him over 30, and nearly caught up to Bush.

Up: Bush, Rubio, Christie
Down: Walker, Fiorina

Bush 34.5
Rubio 33.9
Walker 19.0
Paul 10.0
Huckabee 4.8
Christie 3.6
Cruz 3.3
Kasich 3.2 (32Red)
Carson 2.9
Perry 2.9
Fiorina 2.5

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 31.8
Pawlenty 16.0
Perry 13.3
Huntsman 11.0
Bachmann 6.3
Palin 5.1
Cain 3.7
Christie 2.4
Paul 2.2
Gingrich 1.9
Giuliani 1.6
Ryan 1.6
Santorum 0.9
Pataki 0.8

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 49.3
Obama 29.0
Gore 11.3
Edwards 5.4
Richardson 1.8
Clark 0.6
Biden 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.1

Republicans
Thompson 30.0
Giuliani 28.5
Romney 19.3
McCain 9.5
Gingrich 2.1
Paul 1.6
Huckabee 1.2
Rice 0.8
Hagel 0.8
Bloomberg 0.6
J. Bush 0.5
Brownback 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

[RFayette]

I would seriously buy Clinton shares.  Easy 25% return rate (~$80 invested -> $100) and short the rest for the D nomination.

GOP, it's anyone's game.

[Publius]

I would seriously buy Clinton shares.  Easy 25% return rate (~$80 invested -> $100) and short the rest for the D nomination.

GOP, it's anyone's game.

Yes, easy money with Clinton.

As for GOP, because "it's anyone's game," it'd be crazy to buy a favorite.  The smart bet would be to buy low on Christie.  It wouldn't cost much, and he can catch fire when he starts campaigning in a way I don't see the others being able to do.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush and Rubio both surging.  Trump gets big announcement bump...

Democrats
Clinton 80.6
Sanders 10.0
O'Malley 7.4
Biden 6.4
Warren 6.0

Up: Bush, Rubio, Trump, Kasich, Graham, Jindal
Down: Walker, Paul

Republicans
Bush 36.1
Rubio 30.5
Walker 19.6
Paul 8.1
Trump 6.5
Kasich 5.3
Huckabee 4.8
Graham 4.2
Jindal 3.4
Cruz 3.3
Carson 2.9
Perry 2.6

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 33.7
Perry 14.0
Pawlenty 13.5
Huntsman 12.1
Bachmann 8.2
Palin 4.5
Cain 3.4
Paul 2.2
Giuliani 1.9
Gingrich 1.5
Ryan 1.5
Christie 1.4
Santorum 0.7
Pataki 0.5

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Those numbers add up to well over 100%.

[Mr. Morden]

Those numbers add up to well over 100%.

Yeah, volume is still low…

[Ebsy]

I want to know what idiot is betting on a Jindal nomination.

[IceSpear]

I want to know what idiot is betting on a Jindal nomination.

Yeah, pretty dumb, but not nearly the biggest offenders. For instance, Warren is nearly twice as high as he is. Are there low info betters just like there are low info voters?

[Mr. Morden]

That big Rubio bubble that had him over 30 fades...now back down to just below 25.

Democrats
Clinton 82.6
Sanders 9.1
O'Malley 6.4
Biden 5.8
Warren 3.4

Republicans
Bush 35.0
Rubio 24.8
Walker 18.6
Paul 10.5
Huckabee 4.5
Carson 4.2
Trump 3.7
Perry 3.4
Christie 3.3
Cruz 3.3
Fiorina 2.5
Kasich 1.8

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 32.1
Perry 19.9
Huntsman 10.6
Pawlenty 10.0
Bachmann 7.0
Palin 4.5
Paul 2.7
Cain 2.4
Christie 1.6
Giuliani 1.6
Gingrich 1.3
Ryan 1.2
Santorum 0.7
Pataki 0.6
Johnson 0.5

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 49.0
Obama 29.7
Gore 10.7
Edwards 5.0
Richardson 1.8
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.2
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.2

Republicans
Thompson 31.5
Giuliani 30.0
Romney 20.6
McCain 8.5
Gingrich 2.1
Paul 1.8
Huckabee 1.2
Rice 0.9
Hagel 0.8
Bloomberg 0.6
J. Bush 0.5
Brownback 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.3
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.2
Powell 0.1

Yes, McCain at only 8.5.  Remember the Summer 2007 implosion of his campaign?

[IceSpear]

I'd be buying Clinton, Walker, and Kasich shares. Kasich in particular seems undervalued. Not that I think he'd instantly jump into the top tier if he entered, but he'd be in a decent spot if Jeb fumbled the ball. Seems pretty silly that he's behind a bunch of people who would never have a prayer in a million years (Carson, Trump, Fiorina).

[Mr. Morden]

Trump up to 5th place.  Jindal at 3.1 on the eve of his announcement.

Democrats
Clinton 84.0
Sanders 10.0
Biden 5.7
O'Malley 5.0

Republicans
Bush 34.7
Rubio 25.4
Walker 17.7
Paul 8.4
Trump 4.2
Huckabee 3.8
Carson 3.4
Jindal 3.1
Perry 3.1
Cruz 2.9

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

GOP nominee

Romney 36.1
Perry 17.0
Huntsman 9.4
Bachmann 9.1
Pawlenty 8.5
Palin 5.3
Paul 2.4
Christie 2.0
Gingrich 2.0
Cain 1.9
Giuliani 1.8
Ryan 1.2
Santorum 0.6
Johnson 0.4

Dem. nominee

Obama 93.9
Clinton 3.0
Biden 1.6

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 49.5
Obama 30.6
Gore 9.3
Edwards 5.3
Richardson 2.6
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 32.5
Thompson 30.4
Romney 23.2
McCain 8.9
Paul 2.6
Gingrich 2.0
Huckabee 0.8
Rice 0.8
Bloomberg 0.5
Brownback 0.5
J. Bush 0.4
Hagel 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Powell 0.1

[PresidentTRUMP]

My money would be on Rubio or Walker on the Republican side and Hillary on the Dems side. If there was one sleeper pick I would buy shares of it would be Joe Biden, don't count him out just yet.

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich's on the move….back up to 5.0 and 5th place.

Democrats
Clinton 83.3
Sanders 10.5
Biden 4.5
O'Malley 4.3

Republicans
Bush 35.5
Rubio 24.8
Walker 17.7
Paul 10.5
Kasich 5.0
Huckabee 4.0
Carson 3.4
Trump 3.4
Christie 3.1
Cruz 2.9
Perry 2.6
Fiorina 2.3

Four years ago today on Intrade:

GOP nomination

Romney 33.9
Bachmann 13.8
Perry 13.0
Pawlenty 8.4
Huntsman 8.0
Palin 5.4
Paul 2.4
Cain 1.9
Giuliani 1.9
Christie 1.7
Gingrich 1.6
Ryan 1.0
Pataki 0.7
Santorum 0.6
Johnson 0.5

Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 48.2
Obama 33.3
Gore 8.5
Edwards 5.1
Richardson 2.9
Biden 0.6
Clark 0.5
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 35.0 (way ahead of both his bid & offer for some reason)
Thompson 34.0
Romney 22.4
McCain 7.8
Paul 2.5
Gingrich 2.0
Huckabee 0.8
Rice 0.8
J. Bush 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4
Hagel 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Brownback 0.3
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Powell 0.2
Hunter 0.1

[Publius]

Incredible that Bachmann held the second spot.

[Mr. Morden]

Democrats
Clinton 85.5
Sanders 13.1

Republicans
Bush 36.6
Rubio 23.1
Walker 17.4
Paul 8.1
Huckabee 5.0
Carson 4.3
Trump 4.3
Christie 4.2
Graham 3.8
Cruz 3.3
Kasich 2.6

Roughly four years ago at this point on Intrade:

Romney 34.0
Bachmann 15.6
Perry 15.4
Pawlenty 8.7
Palin 7.1
Huntsman 6.6
Paul 2.0
Christie 1.7
Gingrich 1.7
Giuliani 1.7
Cain 1.5
Ryan 1.1
McCotter 0.7
Santorum 0.6
Pataki 0.5

Roughly eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 45.7
Obama 34.6
Gore 9.2
Edwards 5.4
Richardson 2.3
Clark 0.7
Biden 0.6
Dodd 0.3
Kerry 0.2


Republicans
Giuliani 36.0
Thompson 35.5
Romney 18.6
McCain 4.6
Paul 3.3
Gingrich 2.4
Huckabee 0.8
J. Bush 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5
Hagel 0.4
Cheney 0.4
Brownback 0.3
Rice 0.2
Tancredo 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Powell 0.1
Hunter 0.1

[Bull Moose Base]

I wonder if Rubio will be punished on Betfair for his push to ban online gambling.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush 37.5
Rubio 22.6
Walker 17.4
Paul 10.0
Huckabee 6.2
Trump 4.0
Christie 3.8
Carson 2.9
Graham 2.8
Kasich 2.8
Santorum 2.8
Cruz 2.1

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 33.9
Bachmann 15.0
Perry 15.0
Pawlenty 8.0
Huntsman 7.8
Palin 5.3
Paul 2.0
Christie 1.7
Gingrich 1.6
Giuliani 1.6
Cain 1.4
Ryan 0.9
Santorum 0.5
Johnson 0.4
Pataki 0.4

Eight years ago today on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 45.0
Obama 38.0
Gore 6.0
Edwards 5.5
Richardson 1.9
Clark 0.7
Biden 0.5
Dodd 0.4
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.1


Republicans
Giuliani 40.0
Thompson 35.5
Romney 18.0
McCain 4.0
Paul 2.6
Gingrich 2.3
Huckabee 1.4
Hagel 0.7
J. Bush 0.5
Tancredo 0.3
Cheney 0.3
Rice 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
T. Thompson 0.2
Hunter 0.1
Brownback 0.1

Yes, McCain was at 4.0 at this point 8 years ago, after having been at ~50 just after the 2006 midterms.  Remember that?

I feel sorry for those people who bought while McCain was at 50 in December 2006.




Nah, I really don't.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump surge:

Bush 38.2
Rubio 21.7
Walker 15.8
Paul 8.4
Trump 8.4
Huckabee 5.8
Christie 3.7
Carson 3.4
Graham 2.8
Santorum 2.8
Kasich 2.6
Cruz 2.1

Roughly four years ago at this point on Intrade:

Romney 34.6
Perry 18.2
Bachmann 13.3
Huntsman 8.0
Pawlenty 8.0
Palin 6.1
Paul 2.1
Giuliani 2.0
Christie 1.7
Gingrich 1.7
Cain 1.4
Ryan 1.0
Santorum 0.5

Roughly eight years ago at this point on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 44.1
Obama 38.0
Gore 6.3
Edwards 5.7
Richardson 1.9
Biden 0.9
Clark 0.7
Dodd 0.4
Kerry 0.2
Warner 0.1

Republicans
Giuliani 39.0
Thompson 33.9
Romney 16.4
McCain 5.0
Paul 2.8
Gingrich 2.5
Huckabee 1.2
Rice 0.7
Hagel 0.7
J. Bush 0.5
Tancredo 0.3
Cheney 0.3
Bloomberg 0.2
T. Thompson 0.1
Hunter 0.1
Brownback 0.1

[Mr. Morden]

Bush breaks 40…

Dems

Clinton 84.0
Sanders 13.4

GOP

Bush 40.7
Rubio 20.4
Walker 16.3
Paul 8.4
Huckabee 5.5
Trump 5.3
Carson 3.4
Christie 3.3

[Mr. Morden]

Walker back up to second place, as Rubio drops....

Democrats
Clinton 84.0
Sanders 12.2

Republicans
Bush 42.9
Walker 16.8
Rubio 15.8
Paul 6.8
Trump 6.5
Huckabee 5.8
Carson 4.3
Christie 4.2
Cruz 3.4
Kasich 2.6

Roughly four years ago at this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2964703#msg2964703

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1248322#msg1248322

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[Mr. Morden]

Rubio crash continues.  Has lost about half his value since June 24th.  Trump passes Paul for fourth place.

Bush 42.2
Walker 16.3
Rubio 12.8
Trump 7.8
Paul 6.8
Huckabee 5.5
Christie 4.2
Carson 3.8
Cruz 3.4
Kasich 3.1

Four years ago at roughly this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2973381#msg2973381

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1250941#msg1250941

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[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee passes Paul for 5th place.  Trump rapidly narrowing the gap on Rubio, and could soon be in third place.  Bush keeps gaining.

Democrats
Clinton 81.3
Sanders 13.4

Republicans
Bush 43.3
Walker 15.8
Rubio 10.5
Trump 10.0
Huckabee 5.5
Paul 5.3
Cruz 5.0
Christie 4.0
Carson 3.3
Kasich 3.1