latest Betfair odds

[IceSpear]

Rubio dropping like a rock. Looks like the markets are finally starting to notice the media hype was an illusion.

Jeb is WAY overvalued though.

[eric82oslo]

I'm surprised Bush hasn't surpassed 50% yet to be honest. The others seem more or less incompetent. The few who are seeming less incompetent are:

1) Kasich
2) Rubio
3) Christie

And that might be all, although after the debate in one week from now we will know a lot more.

[MisSkeptic]

Huckabee passes Paul for 5th place.  Trump rapidly narrowing the gap on Rubio, and could soon be in third place.  Bush keeps gaining.

Democrats
Clinton 81.3
Sanders 13.4

Republicans
Bush 43.3
Walker 15.8
Rubio 10.5
Trump 10.0
Huckabee 5.5
Paul 5.3
Cruz 5.0
Christie 4.0
Carson 3.3
Kasich 3.1

It looks like Bush might clinch the nomination for his party.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio collapse continues...
Up: Walker
Down: Rubio, Trump

Bush 43.3
Walker 18.0
Rubio 8.8
Trump 8.4
Huckabee 5.9
Paul 5.3
Cruz 5.0
Christie 4.2
Kasich 3.4
Carson 3.3

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2976524#msg2976524

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1255735#msg1255735

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[Mr. Morden]

Rubio was just above 25 as recently as June 24th.  Anyone who bought at that price has now lost almost 2/3rds of their money, were they to sell now.

[Mr. Morden]

Post-Union Leader forum / Pre-Fox debate update.....
Trump passes Rubio for 3rd place, while Kasich moves up to 5th place.

Democrats
Clinton 78.1
Sanders 11.6
Biden 7.2
O'Malley 2.1

Republicans
Bush 45.0
Walker 19.3
Trump 10.0
Rubio 8.8
Kasich 5.3
Paul 5.0
Huckabee 4.5
Christie 4.2
Cruz 3.8
Carson 2.6

Four years ago today on Intrade....Perry and Romney were tied:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2979995#msg2979995

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1257958#msg1257958

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[Landslide Lyndon]

How funny does it seem after eight years the fact that Giuliani and Fred Thompson were the Republican frontrunners only five months before the Iowa caucuses.

[Mr. Morden]

How funny does it seem after eight years the fact that Giuliani and Fred Thompson were the Republican frontrunners only five months before the Iowa caucuses.

They were the frontrunners in the betting markets (and national polls) though, IIRC, many of us on this forum were already moving onto the Romney train at that point, because of his strength in IA and NH polls.

But no one was counting on McCain at that point.  His campaign appeared to be dead.

[PresidentTRUMP]

My money would be placed on these two right now:

D: Biden (I believe he will enter the race at the end of August and win the nomination)

R: Rubio (Once the hype around Trump settles down I believe a lot of those voters will gravitate toward Rubio who still has the most potential of any republican candidate)

My runners up as it sits right now who could be my favorites in a couple months would be:

D: Clinton

R: Kasich

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update:

Rubio retakes 3rd place form Trump, and Fiorina quadruples her share price within a few hours.

Bush 44.4
Walker 20.0
Rubio 13.1
Trump 9.5
Huckabee 6.8
Fiorina 6.5
Cruz 5.3
Paul 5.3
Kasich 5.0
Christie 4.2
Carson 4.0

Four years ago at this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2980962#msg2980962

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1259202#msg1259202

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[Mr. Morden]

After much volatility in the last ~36 hours, we're currently at:

Up: Rubio
Down: Bush, Walker, Cruz

Bush 41.8
Walker 17.7
Rubio 15.8
Trump 9.1
Fiorina 6.8
Huckabee 6.2
Kasich 5.7
Paul 5.3
Cruz 4.0
Carson 3.8
Christie 3.3

So yes, Fiorina has passed Huckabee, and is now up to 5th place.

[GLPman]

Significant boosts for Rubio and Fiorina.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush drifts a bit further down, may soon drop below 40.  Fiorina off of her big post-debate gains (still way up compared to her pre-debate #s though).  Kasich back up to 5th place.

Democrats
Clinton 78.7
Sanders 13.8
Biden 7.8

Republicans
Bush 40.3
Walker 16.8
Rubio 14.5
Trump 7.5
Kasich 6.2
Huckabee 5.0
Carson 4.2
Fiorina 4.2
Cruz 4.0
Paul 4.0
Christie 3.3

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2986870#msg2986870

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1261358#msg1261358

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[Mr. Morden]

The markets continue to be turbulent....

Bush back below 40, Trump back above 10, Cruz passes Kasich for 5th place, and Paul has lost half his value from two weeks ago.

Up: Trump, Cruz, Fiorina
Down: Bush

Bush 38.2
Walker 16.3
Rubio 15.4
Trump 11.4
Cruz 6.2
Kasich 6.0
Fiorina 5.8
Huckabee 5.0
Carson 4.0
Paul 3.4
Christie 3.3

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio moves ahead of Walker to take 2nd place.

Up: Rubio, Fiorina
Down: Bush, Trump

Democrats
Clinton 78.1
Sanders 13.1
Biden 10.5

Republicans
Bush 36.1
Rubio 16.8
Walker 15.8
Trump 8.4
Fiorina 7.0
Kasich 5.7
Cruz 5.3
Huckabee 4.2
Carson 4.0
Paul 4.0
Christie 2.9

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2988439#msg2988439

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1263154#msg1263154

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[Mr. Morden]

Kasich back up to 5th place.

Up: Bush
Down: Fiorina

Democrats
Clinton 78.1
Sanders 16.3

Republicans
Bush 38.0
Rubio 16.3
Walker 14.9
Trump 7.8
Kasich 6.5
Fiorina 5.8
Cruz 5.3
Huckabee 4.2
Carson 4.0
Paul 4.0

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2990488#msg2990488

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Eight year ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1265021#msg1265021

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[Del Tachi]

I'd be buying Carson at that price. 

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton and Sanders drop as Biden gains.  Walker sinks further.  On June 11th, he was at 22.  Now down to just under 13.

Democrats
Clinton 75.2
Sanders 14.1
Biden 12.2

Republicans
Bush 38.8
Rubio 15.8
Walker 12.8
Trump 8.1
Kasich 6.2
Fiorina 5.0
Cruz 4.8
Huckabee 4.8
Carson 4.0
Paul 4.0

Four years ago today on Intrade (note how high Ryan was back then--that's because of this story):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2993865#msg2993865

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1267852#msg1267852

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[mencken]

Bush=Perry/Giuliani
Rubio=Romney
Walker=Bachmann/Thompson
Trump=Palin/Paul
Kasich=Huntsman/McCain
Fiorina=Ryan/Gingrich
Cruz=Paul/Huckabee

[TarHeelDem]

Pretty incredible that someone who hasn't even declared a candidacy could pass a current second placer for a nomination.

[Mr. Morden]

Up: Clinton, Walker, Trump
Down: Biden, Bush

Democrats
Clinton 76.9
Sanders 13.8
Biden 10.0

Republicans
Bush 36.6
Rubio 15.8
Walker 14.1
Trump 9.5
Kasich 6.2
Cruz 4.8
Fiorina 4.8
Huckabee 4.5
Carson 4.0
Paul 3.7

Four years ago at roughly this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2996022#msg2996022

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1268745#msg1268745

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[Mr. Morden]

Democrats
Clinton 77.5
Sanders 13.1
Biden 10.0

Republicans
Bush 38.0
Rubio 15.8
Walker 13.8
Trump 11.9
Kasich 6.0
Fiorina 4.8
Huckabee 4.8
Cruz 4.5
Carson 4.0
Paul 4.0

Four years ago at roughly this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg2997907#msg2997907

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1270213#msg1270213

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Will Sanders manage to get as high as the 18.3 that Obama was at on Intrade 8 years ago today?

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton dropping like a rock; Trump surging into third place, now beating Walker.

Democrats
Clinton 71.9
Sanders 12.8
Biden 11.1
O’Malley 2.6

Republicans
Bush 38.0
Rubio 15.4
Trump 14.5
Walker 13.4
Kasich 6.5
Cruz 4.5
Huckabee 4.5
Fiorina 4.2
Carson 4.0
Paul 3.1

Winning Individual
Clinton 46.3
Bush 18.0
Biden 7.5
Trump 6.8
Rubio 5.8
Sanders 5.8
Walker 4.0
Kasich 3.4
Huckabee 2.2

[Mr. Morden]

On June 27th, Trump was at 3.4, while Paul was at 10.5.  That was less than two months ago.  Still plenty of time before Iowa for plenty of other candidates to get their turn either crashing and burning or shooting way up.

[Eraserhead]

I would think that Sanders and Biden would shoot up higher with Clinton crashing like that.