latest Betfair odds

[TarHeelDem]

Even if the Supreme Court legalizes marriage equality nationwide in, say, 2015, I do think there will be pressure on the GOP nominee to propose an amendment to the Constitution or something of the sort, especially if there's a Republican Congress (which I doubt there will be, but it's possible).

[pbrower2a]

I'm surprised that Rick Snyder, Governor of Michigan, isn't on the list.

[whanztastic]

I'm surprised that Rick Snyder, Governor of Michigan, isn't on the list.

Then you need to get out of the state, because I have not heard anybody talking about him anywhere. Detroit is a millstone around his neck.

[pbrower2a]

I'm surprised that Rick Snyder, Governor of Michigan, isn't on the list.

Then you need to get out of the state, because I have not heard anybody talking about him anywhere. Detroit is a millstone around his neck.

Did I say that I like him? But he got Right-to-Work (for much less) passed in Michigan, which should make him a hero to Corporate America.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush 20.4
Rubio 16.3
Paul 11.6
Christie 11.4
Walker 6.8
Cruz 5.7
Ryan 5.0
Huckabee 4.5

Four years ago today, on Intrade:

Romney 23.2
Palin 20.0
Thune 13.6
Gingrich 8.0
Pawlenty 7.1
Jindal 5.0
Huckabee 4.7

[Mr. Morden]

Bush 19.0
Rubio 15.4
Paul 11.6
Christie 11.1
Walker 6.5
Cruz 6.2
Ryan 5.0
Huckabee 4.3

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 27.8
Palin 17.5
Thune 13.6
Gingrich 11.1
Pawlenty 7.3
Daniels 6.5
Huckabee 5.7
Paul 4.9

[Mr. Morden]

Bush 18.6
Rubio 16.3
Paul 11.6
Christie 11.1
Cruz 6.4
Walker 6.4
Ryan 5.0
Huckabee 4.3
Romney 3.3
Jindal 3.1

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 24.1
Palin 16.3
Thune 13.2
Gingrich 12.0
Pawlenty 10.6
Huckabee 4.7
Jeb Bush 4.3
Daniels 3.5
Paul 3.5
Jindal 2.2

[eric82oslo]

My current gut feeling says that Rand Paul currently stands the greatest chances for the nomination, with Jeb slightly behind.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio has moved back up into a tie with Bush for first place:

Bush 16.8
Rubio 16.8
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.7
Walker 6.4
Cruz 6.2
Ryan 5.4
Huckabee 4.0

However, let's look at the bigger picture of how things have shifted so far this year.  Here were the numbers in February:

Rubio 16.8
Bush 12.8
Christie 11.1
Paul 9.5
Walker 6.4
Cruz 6.0
Huckabee 4.0
Ryan 4.0

Since then, Bush has been the biggest gainer (he went all the way above 20 at one point, but has now come somewhat back down to Earth), with Paul and Ryan also having gained on their positions from February.  None of the top contenders has seen a dropoff.  It's basically just "field" that has dropped since then.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush again alone in the lead:

Bush 16.8
Rubio 16.3
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.0
Cruz 6.2
Walker 6.0
Ryan 5.5
Huckabee 3.6

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 30.0
Palin 20.0
Thune 12.5
Gingrich 10.9
Pawlenty 10.4
Daniels 8.5
Huckabee 6.9
Pence 5.0

In that case, only 3 of the people in the top 8 ended up running (Romney, Gingrich, Pawlenty).  They were 1st, 4th, and 5th respectively on Intrade.  If history were to repeat itself this time around, we'd see Bush, Christie, and Cruz run, but none of Rubio, Paul, Walker, Ryan, or Huckabee.

[cbannon5]

Bush again alone in the lead:

Bush 16.8
Rubio 16.3
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.0
Cruz 6.2
Walker 6.0
Ryan 5.5
Huckabee 3.6

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 30.0
Palin 20.0
Thune 12.5
Gingrich 10.9
Pawlenty 10.4
Daniels 8.5
Huckabee 6.9
Pence 5.0

In that case, only 3 of the people in the top 8 ended up running (Romney, Gingrich, Pawlenty).  They were 1st, 4th, and 5th respectively on Intrade.  If history were to repeat itself this time around, we'd see Bush, Christie, and Cruz run, but none of Rubio, Paul, Walker, Ryan, or Huckabee.

I don't think there's any foreseeable scenario under which Rand Paul opts not to run.

[Blue3]

An embarrassing scandal, or not wanting to give up his Senate seat.

[whanztastic]

Sense a Rubio/Paul "dream ticket" forming.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush is falling, which means Rubio is now in first place:

Rubio 16.3
Bush 14.1
Paul 11.4
Christie 10.0
Cruz 6.2

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side:

Clinton 65.8
Warren 9.1
Biden 6.8
Cuomo 4.0

[Mr. Morden]

Update (Pence isn't listed on Betfair, so I got his share price from Ladbrokes):

Dems

Clinton 67.6
Warren 9.1
Biden 6.8
Cuomo 4.0
Gillibrand 2.4
O'Malley 2.1
others under 2.0

GOP

Rubio 16.3
Bush 15.8
Paul 11.9
Christie 10.0
Cruz 6.2
Walker 5.8
Ryan 5.0
Romney 4.2
Huckabee 3.3
Jindal 3.1
Pence 2.4 (Ladbrokes)
Perry 2.3
others under 2.0

Roughly 4 years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 28.5
Palin 18.5
Thune 16.1
Pawlenty 10.5
Daniels 8.3
Gingrich 8.0
Huckabee 6.9
Jeb Bush 5.1
Pence 5.0
Paul 4.6
Jindal 3.9
Barbour 2.9
Christie 2.5
Perry 2.0
others under 2.0

Roughly 8 years ago at this time on Intrade:

About a month since we last posted the numbers, net change from 7/25 in ()

Democrats

Clinton 40.5 (-1.9)
Warner 18.5 (-0.5)
Gore 15.0 (+0.2)
Edwards 9.0 (0)
Feingold 3.6 (+1.3)
Kerry 3.3 (0)
Obama 2.2 (+0.2)
Bayh 2.2 (+ ~0.4)
Others under 2.0

Republicans

McCain 38.0 (-0.4)
Giuliani 16.0 (+1.5)
Romney 13.2 (+2.8 )
Allen 13.0 (-3.5)
Rice 5.9 (+0.9)
Gingrich 3.2 (+0.5)
Huckabee 2.2 (-0.4)
Others under 2.0

[Mr. Morden]

Perry's actually gone up from 2.3 to 2.6 since news of the indictment broke.

[Mr. Morden]

Update: Paul moves into a tie for second with Bush, as Bush continues to decline.  Romney moves up into a tie for 5th place(!), and Perry continues to gain ground, following the indictment.

Rubio 15.8
Bush 11.9
Paul 11.9
Christie 10.5
Cruz 6.4
Romney 6.4
Walker 5.4
Ryan 4.8
Huckabee 3.3
Jindal 3.1
Perry 2.9

[Mr. Morden]

Bush back in the lead and Romney surges:

Bush 16.8
Rubio 15.8
Paul 11.9
Christie 10.5
Romney 7.8
Cruz 6.4
Walker 5.4
Ryan 4.5
Huckabee 3.3

Roughly four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 27.9
Palin 18.8
Thune 18.0
Pawlenty 12.5
Gingrich 10.4
Barbour 7.9
Huckabee 6.1
Daniels 5.7
Paul 5.5

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio retakes the lead.  Romney still gaining, and Perry has gained some more post-indictment:

Rubio 16.8
Bush 14.5
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.5
Romney 9.1
Cruz 6.0
Walker 5.3
Perry 4.8
Ryan 4.5

[Mr. Morden]

Dems

Clinton 68.5
Warren 8.8
Biden 6.4
Cuomo 3.3
O'Malley 2.1

GOP

Rubio 16.8
Bush 13.4
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.5
Romney 8.8
Cruz 6.0
Walker 5.3
Perry 4.5
Ryan 4.5
Huckabee 3.3
Jindal 2.8

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 29.0
Thune 18.5
Palin 17.1
Pawlenty 12.5
Daniels 10.0
Gingrich 9.5
Barbour 7.6
Huckabee 6.1
Paul 5.5
J. Bush 5.3
Jindal 5.0
Pence 4.7
Christie 4.0
Ryan 3.0
others below 2.0

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democrats

Clinton 39.4 (-1.1)
Warner 17.5 (-1.0)
Gore 17.2 (+2.2)
Edwards 9.1 (+.1)
Kerry 3.5 (+.2)
Bayh 3.0 (+.8 )
Feingold 2.7 (-0.9)
Others at or under 2.1

Republicans

McCain 40.0 (+2.0)
Giuliani 16.1 (+.1)
Romney 15.3 (+2.1 )
Allen 11.5 (-1.5)
Rice 5.1 (-.8 )
Gingrich 4.0 (+0.8 )
Others at or under 2.0

[IceSpear]

Dems

Clinton 68.5
Warren 8.8
Biden 6.4
Cuomo 3.3
O'Malley 2.1

GOP

Rubio 16.8
Bush 13.4
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.5
Romney 8.8
Cruz 6.0
Walker 5.3
Perry 4.5
Ryan 4.5
Huckabee 3.3
Jindal 2.8

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 29.0
Thune 18.5
Palin 17.1
Pawlenty 12.5
Daniels 10.0
Gingrich 9.5
Barbour 7.6
Huckabee 6.1
Paul 5.5
J. Bush 5.3
Jindal 5.0
Pence 4.7
Christie 4.0
Ryan 3.0
others below 2.0

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democrats

Clinton 39.4 (-1.1)
Warner 17.5 (-1.0)
Gore 17.2 (+2.2)
Edwards 9.1 (+.1)
Kerry 3.5 (+.2)
Bayh 3.0 (+.8 )
Feingold 2.7 (-0.9)
Others at or under 2.1

Republicans

McCain 40.0 (+2.0)
Giuliani 16.1 (+.1)
Romney 15.3 (+2.1 )
Allen 11.5 (-1.5)
Rice 5.1 (-.8 )
Gingrich 4.0 (+0.8 )
Others at or under 2.0

Impossible! Hillary was just as overwhelming a favorite in 2008 as she is now!

[Mr. Morden]

Perry now all the way up to a tie for 4th place:

Rubio 16.8
Bush 12.8
Paul 12.2
Christie 10.5
Perry 10.5
Romney 8.4
Cruz 5.8
Walker 5.0
Ryan 4.5
Huckabee 3.3

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney inches slightly farther ahead:

Romney 32.4
Palin 17.6
Thune 17.6
Pawlenty 12.8
Gingrich 9.5
Barbour 7.0
Daniels 7.0
Paul 6.2
Huckabee 6.1
J. Bush 5.9
Pence 5.0

[spacecoyote]

Perry now all the way up to a tie for 4th place:

Rubio 16.8
Bush 12.8
Paul 12.2
Christie 10.5
Perry 10.5
Romney 8.4
Cruz 5.8
Walker 5.0
Ryan 4.5
Huckabee 3.3

I think Huckabee and Perry are undervalued. Rubio is WAY overvalued in this.

[IceSpear]

Perry now all the way up to a tie for 4th place:

Rubio 16.8
Bush 12.8
Paul 12.2
Christie 10.5
Perry 10.5
Romney 8.4
Cruz 5.8
Walker 5.0
Ryan 4.5
Huckabee 3.3

I think Huckabee and Perry are undervalued. Rubio is WAY overvalued in this.

Huckabee isn't going to run (he just wants the attention), and Perry has no prayer because the establishment isn't going to let a guy who got indicted get the nomination. Agreed on Rubio though.

[Likely Voter]

Betfair prices are set by the bookmakers. This isnt the same as intrade (which closed down). So there are no 'shares' for people to buy/sell/hold. In theory this means the odds should be more realistic and not be able to be influenced by traders in a low volume market, but this far out the bookmakers are really just guessing. Once everyone announces and there are lots of polls the odds will likely be more realistic and change more often. I doubt there is much betting going on now anyway.