latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade may be gone, but we still have other election betting markets out there.  And you can find the odds for the 2016 election here:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-candidate

I'll highlight Betfair, since I believe it has the highest volume of the various elections markets.  To convert their odds to probabilities, take the reciprocal of the numbers listed on Oddschecker, and that gives you your probability.  While it's early enough that the volume is still low, there's been a little action in the last couple of days, because of the decline of Christie (who had been leading the GOP nomination market a few days ago).  Here's where we are now (in % probabilities):

Democratic nomination

Clinton 58.5
Biden 8.8
Warren 7.2
Cuomo 5.5

GOP nomination

Rubio 16.8
Bush 12.8
Christie 11.1
Paul 9.5
Walker 6.4
Cruz 6.0
Huckabee 4.0
Ryan 4.0

Winning Individual

Clinton 41.0
Rubio 8.8
Christie 7.2
Bush 6.8
Warren 5.3

[Keystone Phil]

So we're seeing here what we (or at least I) haven't been hearing: Rubio's stock is rising at the expense of others falling. The buzz seems to be more about Jeb and Walker. Now they obviously stand to benefit but I feel like Rubio has been almost completed relegated in the whole 2016 discussion.

[RogueBeaver]

Agreed with Phil. I don't see why Rubio of all people would benefit here. Cheesemen and Jeb are more logical.

[Keystone Phil]

Agreed with Phil. I don't see why Rubio of all people would benefit here. Cheesemen and Jeb are more logical.

Well, I get your point that Walker and Jeb would benefit because they are getting more attention these days but my point is that Rubio should get more coverage because people will turn/are turning back to him. He's a "safer bet" that people will naturally turn back to but seems to be ignored for the most part.

[RogueBeaver]

Agreed with Phil. I don't see why Rubio of all people would benefit here. Cheesemen and Jeb are more logical.

Well, I get your point that Walker and Jeb would benefit because they are getting more attention these days but my point is that Rubio should get more coverage because people will turn/are turning back to him. He's a "safer bet" that people will naturally turn back to but seems to be ignored for the most part.

Well, until polling evidence surfaces... he's still in high single digits. As I pointed out last year his own mess is far greater than an issue position he held for most of his career. Goes to basic competence and lack of policy accomplishments. What's his response to "would-be Pub Obama."

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

I don't think Walker is that well known yet. Probably won't be until he runs.

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio 17.4
Bush 13.8
Christie 10.0
Paul 9.5
Walker 6.4
Cruz 5.7
Ryan 4.5
Huckabee 4.0

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 24.7
Palin 20.0
Pawlenty 11.0
Thune 9.8
Huckabee 8.9

[dmmidmi]

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 24.7
Palin 20.0
Pawlenty 11.0
Thune 9.8
Huckabee 8.9

That's funny. Only two of them actually ran, and one dropped out early.

[Mr. Morden]

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 24.7
Palin 20.0
Pawlenty 11.0
Thune 9.8
Huckabee 8.9

That's funny. Only two of them actually ran, and one dropped out early.

Yep, and if you want to flash forward a bit to May 2010, it looked like this:

Romney 22.5
Palin 20.0
Thune 15.0
Gingrich 10.0
Pawlenty 6.5
Jeb Bush 4.1
Huckabee 3.8
Daniels 3.5
Paul 3.5
Pence 2.5

10 candidates listed, and only 4 (Romney, Gingrich, Pawlenty, Paul) actually ended up running.  Which is why one should be cautious about claiming absolute foreknowledge of who's going to run.

OTOH, that doesn't mean that we should ignore all the hints the potential candidates are dropping about whether they'll run.  4 out of 10 is actually pretty good, given that the universe of potential candidates includes virtually every current or former governor or member of Congress from the party in question.  The potential candidates who drop hints suggesting they might run are demonstratively more likely to run than those who deny that they're interested, or show no signs of laying the groundwork.

[pbrower2a]

I don't think Walker is that well known yet. Probably won't be until he runs.

He must first be re-elected. If he is re-elected he could easily be the default R nominee because he will be very effective at fundraising.

He'd be a horrible President -- unless one is in the top 1% of asset owners. 

[Mr. Morden]

Christie down to 4th:

Rubio 16.8
Bush 13.8
Paul 9.5
Christie 9.1
Walker 6.0
Cruz 5.5
Ryan 5.0

[Mr. Morden]

Christie back in 3rd place:

Rubio 17.4
Bush 13.8
Christie 10.5
Paul 9.5
Walker 6.2
Cruz 5.7
Huckabee 5.0
Ryan 4.8

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 25.0
Palin 23.5
Thune 9.6
Pawlenty 7.5
Huckabee 6.3
Daniels 5.9

[eric82oslo]

Why only go with Betfair, when there are so many other bookmakers out there offering odds as well?

Here are the best odds offered by any of (currently) 12 international bookmakers out there:

Link/source: http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

1. Hillary - 2.88
2. Marco Rubio - 13
3. Chris Christie - 17
4. Jeb Bush - 21
5. Paul Ryan - 21
6. Rand Paul - 23
7. Kamala Harris - 25 (lol)
8. Elizabeth Warren - 26
9. Joe Biden - 34
10. Rob Portman - 34
11. Ted Cruz - 34
12. Ron Wyden/Tim Pawlenty - 34
14. Andrew Cuomo - 41
15. Martin O'Malley - 41
16. Bobby Jindal - 41
17. Scott Walker - 41 (sorry to disappoint you Walker fans lol)
18. Susana Martinez - 41
19. Kirsten Gillibrand - 41
20. Mitch Daniels - 50
21. Meg Whitman/Randall Terry/Warren Mosler - 50
24. John Hickenlooper - 51
25. Tammy Baldwin/Jim Webb/Sam Graves - 51
28. Deval Patrick - 67
29. Michael Blomberg - 67
30. Condoleezza Rice - 67
31. Rahm Emanuel - 67
32. Evan Bayh - 67
33. Brian Schweitzer - 67 (lol)
34. Russ Feingold/Debbie Wasserman Schulz - 67
36. Rick Santorum - 75 (lol)
37. Mark Warner - 81
38. Mike Huckabee - 81 (what?)
39. Bob McDonnell - 81 (why is he even on the lists?)
40. Ed Rendell/John Edwards - 81 (what??)
41. Tim Kaine - 91
42. Colin Powell - 100
43. Sarah Palin - 101
44. Mitt Romney - 101 (what does the dog say?)
45. Julian Castro - 101
46. Rick Perry - 101 (ooops!)
47. David Petraeus - 101
48. Jon Huntsman - 101
49. Amy Klobuchar - 101
50. Eric Cantor - 101
51. Cory Booker - 101
52. John Kasich - 101
53. John Kerry - 101
54. Janet Napolitano/Mike Pence - 101
56. Mia Love - 101
57. John McCain/Kay Hagan/Antonio Villaraigosa/John Thune/John Bolton/Dennis Kucinich/Chris Matthews - 101
64. Donald Trump - 126
65. Michele Bachmann - 126
66. Nicky Haley - 126
(67. Arnold Schwartenegger - 126 (except he wasn't born in the US/an American citizen lol))
67. Ron Paul - 150
68. Kathleen Sebelius - 151
69. Chelsea Clinton/Al Franken - 151
71. Al Gore - 176
72. Newt Gingrich - 201
73. Herman Caine - 201
74. Ben Carson/Karl Rove/George Clooney - 201
77. Michelle Obama - 301
78. Eva Longoria/Alec Baldwin - 301
80. Clint Eastwod - 501
81. Nate Silver - 539 (lol)


I'm surprised at how long odds some candidates have. Especially Hillary, but also Jeb Bush, Rand Paul and Mike Huckabee.

What are the thoughts of the rest of you?

[Mr. Morden]

Why only go with Betfair, when there are so many other bookmakers out there offering odds as well?

Because Betfair has the highest volume.  Some of the odds for the less prominent candidates from other bookmakers are based on transactions that were made months ago, and so are now essentially meaningless.  Actually, the volume on all of these 2016 bets is pretty low right now, even on Betfair, because it's so early, but I figured I'd list the numbers now for the historical record.

In any case, it looks like political betting was suspended on Betfair yesterday, and so they're no longer listed on Oddschecker, but hopefully it's a temporary thing, and they'll be back soon.

[Mr. Morden]

Pre-CPAC update: Betfair was down for a while, so I'll give the most recent odds from any betting site, which in most cases is Stan James, which has prices from March 6 in most cases.

Rubio 14.3
Paul 12.5
Christie 11.1
Ryan 11.1
Bush 10.0
Huckabee 7.7
Walker 6.5*
Cruz 5.5*

* All prices are from Stan James except Walker and Cruz, for whom the most recent prices are from Betfair.

[Senator Cris]

New update?

[Mr. Morden]

OK, back to Betfair:

Rubio 16.8
Bush 14.9
Christie 11.1
Paul 11.1
Walker 6.4
Cruz 5.8
Ryan 5.0
Huckabee 4.8

Approx. four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 24.6
Palin 23.0
Thune 14.3
Pawlenty 9.9
Huckabee 6.0
Daniels 4.8

[Mr. Morden]

Dems

Clinton 65.8
Biden 7.5
Warren 6.5
Cuomo 4.5

GOP

Rubio 16.3
Bush 14.5
Paul 10.9
Christie 10.7
Walker 6.5
Cruz 5.8
Ryan 5.0
Huckabee 4.3

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 24.8
Palin 23.2
Thune 20.0
Pawlenty 10.0
Huckabee 7.9
Paul 4.4

[IceSpear]

Looks like Rubio will be the Palin of 2016.

[Badger]

Looks like Rubio will be the Palin of 2016.

Seriously. He'd be good to short sell.

[Hamster]

I'm tempted to say the openness of this race, indicated by the above spreads, is illusory. Because there isn't an heir apparent from 2012, the establishment can take its time to choose their candidate in the invisible primary. I can only imagine one of Bush, Walker, or Christie running. Whichever one of them gets the go ahead will be trumpeted as the favorite by the media and start with a significant fundraising advantage. I know this isn't news to anyone who frequents this forum, but I do wonder how the relative competitiveness of the invisible primary will effect the strength of the anointed candidate. Will he start the primaries in a stronger position than Romney with the Republican party essentially united behind him, or will he be weakened by the competition to the point that an insurgent candidate such as Rand Paul could have a chance at beating him in the actual primary?

[Mr. Morden]

Jeb-mentum as Bush takes the lead:

Bush 20.4
Rubio 16.3
Christie 10.9
Paul 10.9
Walker 6.8
Cruz 5.7
Ryan 5.0
Huckabee 4.8

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 26.8
Palin 23.9
Thune 16.1
Pawlenty 8.8
Huckabee 7.6
Gingrich 5.5

[Hamster]

Latest betfair odds (converted to percentage chance)

Democratic Nominee
Hillary Clinton 68%
Joe Biden 7.4%
Elizabeth Warren 5.4%
Andrew Cuomo 4%
Deval Patrick 3%
Rahm Emmanuel 2.6%

Republican Nominee
Jeb Bush 18.2%
Marco Rubio 15.4%
Rand Paul 11.1%
Chris Christie 10.5%
Scott Walker 6.5%
Ted Cruz 5.41%
Paul Ryan 4.8%
Mike Huckabee 4.6%
Bobby Jindal 3%
Mitt Romney 2.8%

Next President
Hillary Clinton 42.11%
Jeb Bush 8%
Marco Rubio 7.7%
Rand Paul 6.3%
Chris Christie 5.9%
Elizabeth Warren 4.2%
Joe Biden 3.6%
Paul Ryan 2.9%

[Mr. Morden]

Dems

Clinton 65.8
Biden 7.2
Warren 6.5
Cuomo 4.0

GOP

Bush 20.0
Rubio 16.8
Paul 11.4
Christie 10.0
Walker 6.8
Cruz 5.7
Ryan 4.8
Huckabee 4.5

This time four years ago on Intrade:

Romney 24.7
Palin 22.4
Thune 16.5
Gingrich 7.9
Pawlenty 7.5
Paul 6.0

[Mr. Morden]

Bush 20.8
Rubio 15.8
Paul 11.4
Christie 10.0
Walker 6.4
Cruz 5.7
Ryan 5.0
Huckabee 4.5
Romney 2.9
Jindal 2.6

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 22.5
Palin 20.0
Thune 15.0
Gingrich 10.0
Pawlenty 6.5
Jeb Bush 4.1
Huckabee 3.8
Daniels 3.5
Paul 3.5
Pence 2.5