latest Betfair odds

[IceSpear]

Interesting that Dems are actually doing better in the "winning party" bet than they were at this point in the 2012 cycle. Then again, back then we didn't know if 2010 would spell doom for Obama or if it was just a Democratic midterm problem, and now we do.

[Mr. Morden]

Update:

Bush 20.0
Rubio 15.8
Romney 12.8
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.9
Walker 10.9
Cruz 6.2
Perry 5.3
Pence 4.3
Ryan 4.2
Huckabee 3.3
Jindal 3.3
Portman 3.3

Four years ago today on Intrade:

GOP nomination

Romney 22.0
Palin 19.5
Thune 12.6
Huckabee 7.2
Pawlenty 7.0
J. Bush 5.5
Gingrich 4.5
Barbour 4.1
Daniels 3.9
Christie 3.6
Rubio 2.0
DeMint 1.4
Ryan 1.4
Paul 1.3
Johnson 1.2

[Mehmentum]

Bush, Romney and Rubio are all overrated on this.

[© tweed]

Bush, Romney and Rubio are all overrated on this.

so go make some money!

[Mr. Morden]

Ftr, Romney just dropped down to a tie with Paul for 3rd place, so the top four is now:

Bush 20.0
Rubio 15.8
Paul 11.6
Romney 11.6

All the other betting sites also have Bush in the lead, though they differ somewhat after that.  For example, Ladbrokes has Christie and Rubio tied for second.  Paddypower has Paul and Rubio tied for second.

[Yelnoc]

How high do you think Bush's price goes if he gets in the race?

[© tweed]

How high do you think Bush's price goes if he gets in the race?

today?  low to mid 30s

[Mr. Morden]

Update: Paul again alone in third place, but barely ahead of Romney/Christie/Walker.  Bush and Perry gain.

Bush 21.2
Rubio 15.4
Paul 11.4
Romney 11.1
Christie 10.9
Walker 10.5
Perry 8.4
Cruz 7.2
Ryan 4.0
Pence 3.4
Huckabee 3.3

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 22.7
Palin 20.3
Thune 12.0
Huckabee 9.0
Pawlenty 6.8
Gingrich 5.0
J. Bush 4.6
Barbour 4.0
Christie 3.2
Daniels 3.0
Rubio 1.9

[Cory]

How the hell is Rubio consistently ranking so high? I mean c'mon this is money we're talking about.

Even betting on Palin in December of 2010 makes more sense then this.

[Mr. Morden]

On the news that Romney might be interested in running regardless of what other candidates do, Romney has moved back up into 3rd place for the GOP nom.  Cruz is gaining ground as well, moving ahead of Perry.  Clinton's share price on the Democratic side is higher than that of top four candidates on the GOP side *combined*.

Dems
Clinton 70.9
Warren 13.1
Biden 6.8
Gillibrand 3.8
O'Malley 3.4
Cuomo 2.8

GOP
Bush 21.2
Rubio 15.4
Romney 11.9
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.9
Walker 10.5
Cruz 8.8
Perry 8.1
Ryan 4.0
Huckabee 3.3

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

GOP nominee
Romney 23.0
Palin 19.5
Thune 13.0
Huckabee 7.8
Pawlenty 6.6
Daniels 5.0
Gingrich 5.0
Pence 4.4
Barbour 4.0
J. Bush 4.0
Christie 3.2
Rubio 2.0
Paul 1.4
Perry 1.4
Ryan 1.3

Eight years ago at this time on Tradesports:

Democrats
Clinton 53.3
Obama 19.5
Edwards 8.7
Gore 7.3
Bayh 2.6
Richardson 1.9
Vilsack 1.8
Kerry 1.4
Clark 1.1
Biden 0.9
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.6

Republicans
McCain 50.2
Romney 14.0
Giuliani 13.6
Huckabee 9.0
Gingrich 4.5
Brownback 1.8
Rice 1.4
Hagel 1.1
Cheney 0.8
J. Bush 0.7
Pataki 0.6
Allen 0.5
Bloomberg 0.4
Owens 0.3

That's three elections in a row where, at this point in the cycle, Romney was in the top three.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush gains on news of latest moves, while Walker, Cruz, and Perry decline:

Bush 25.4
Rubio 14.5
Romney 11.6
Paul 11.1
Christie 10.5
Walker 8.8
Cruz 6.2
Perry 5.8
Ryan 4.0
Huckabee 3.3
Pence 3.3
Jindal 2.9

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 23.4
Palin 21.4
Thune 12.4
Huckabee 7.5
Daniels 6.5
Pawlenty 6.3
Gingrich 4.7
Pence 4.5
J. Bush 4.3
Barbour 4.0
Christie 2.9
Paul 2.1
Perry 2.0
Rubio 2.0

[IceSpear]

These betters are quite fickle.

[Yelnoc]

I have a hard time believing Bush is the front-runner.

[Keystone Phil]

Wait for that Rubio spike after today's news...

[Mr. Morden]

These betters are quite fickle.

Actually, I think they're fairly cautious and slow to react to events.  In an environment like this, where we're operating on limited information, a single news story that sheds light on a candidate's likelihood to run or how much support they have from big donors, could shift the probabilities quite a bit.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush and Walker gain as Romney sinks (now down to 6th place).

Democrats

Clinton 71.4
Warren 13.1
Biden 6.5
O'Malley 3.4
Gillibrand 3.1
Cuomo 2.5

Republicans

Bush 27.3
Rubio 13.4
Paul 11.9
Christie 10.5
Walker 10.5
Romney 9.5
Cruz 7.0
Perry 5.7
Ryan 3.8
Huckabee 3.3

Roughly 8 years ago at this time on Tradesports:

Democrats

Clinton 53.4
Obama 20.5
Edwards 10.4
Gore 7.0
Warner 3.0
Vilsack 2.1
Richardson 1.7
Kerry 1.7
Clark 1.0
Biden 0.8
Dodd 0.6

Republicans

McCain 51.2
Romney 15.4
Giuliani 14.7
Huckabee 7.1
Gingrich 4.5
Rice 1.6
Brownback 1.3
Hagel 1.0
Cheney 0.8
J. Bush 0.6
Pataki 0.6

[Keystone Phil]

Rubio went down, too? Strange.

[Mehmentum]

Honestly, that 8 years ago forecast wasn't so bad.

The had both Clinton and McCain at about 50%.  Statistically, the most likely result then is one of those two candidates loosing. Clinton ended up loosing, but the person who ended up winning was the runner up.  Betfair also gave fairly strong rankings to Romney, Edwards, and Huckabee, who ended up doing decently in the primary race.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Hillary is still below her 2008 high of  74.4 from November 6, 2007 on the Iowa markets.

[Mr. Morden]

Hillary is still below her 2008 high of  74.4 from November 6, 2007 on the Iowa markets.

Well, it's only December 2014 and she hasn't announced her candidacy yet.  It would be highly unusual for someone who hasn't even announced yet to be up around 75, outperforming someone who was considered a strong frontrunner two months before Iowa.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush gains more, and Romney rebounds to fourth place.

Bush 31.0
Rubio 13.4
Paul 12.8
Romney 11.4
Walker 10.0
Christie 9.5
Cruz 6.2
Perry 5.7
Ryan 3.6
Huckabee 3.3
Jindal 2.8
Pence 2.8

[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee gains a bit on his latest moves.

Democratic nominee

Clinton 72.5
Warren 13.1
Biden 6.5
Gillibrand 3.1
O'Malley 3.1
Gore 2.9
Webb 2.2

Republican nominee

Bush 31.0
Rubio 13.4
Paul 12.8
Romney 11.9
Christie 9.5
Walker 9.5
Cruz 5.8
Perry 5.7
Huckabee 4.2
Ryan 3.7
Jindal 2.8
Pence 2.3
Carson 1.9
Santorum 1.9

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democratic nominee
Obama 84.0
Clinton 6.1

Republican nominee
Romney 19.1
Palin 16.6
Thune 11.9
Daniels 8.1
Huckabee 7.8
Pawlenty 6.1
Pence 5.1
Gingrich 5.0
Barbour 2.7
Huntsman 2.7
Christie 2.6
Rubio 2.0
Paul 1.7
Johnson 1.4

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 47.7
Obama 21.1
Edwards 14.8
Gore 6.9
Richardson 1.8
Kerry 1.6
Biden 1.6
Vilsack 1.3
Clark 1.1
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.7


Republicans
McCain 48.2
Giuliani 16.6
Romney 16.3
Huckabee 4.4
Gingrich 3.1
Brownback 2.0
Rice 1.9
Hagel 1.5
Cheney 0.9
Thompson 0.8
Bush 0.7
Allen 0.5
Pataki 0.5

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Seems to be a lot of money to be made just by shorting Bush and Rubio for the near future. It looks increasingly unlikely Rubio will run while Bush is just way overvalued even if there is a solid chance he wins the nomination. Once other moderates jump in, that should drop to low 20s. Huck and Carson seem dreadfully undervalued otoh - not that I expect either to be the nominee. Could be about 9 and 4 respectively while Carson's value could increase dramatically if he continues to poll fantastically in Iowa in August/September.

[Mr. Morden]

Romney back up to third place, following his statements that he might run:

Bush 31.0
Rubio 13.4
Romney 13.1
Paul 12.8
Walker 10.0
Christie 9.5
Cruz 6.8
Perry 5.8
Huckabee 5.0

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 21.7
Palin 10.5
Daniels 10.1
Thune 10.0
Huckabee 9.3
Pawlenty 6.7
Gingrich 4.8
Pence 3.8
Huntsman 3.5
Trump 2.8
Bachmann 2.3
Barbour 2.2
Christie 2.0
Paul 1.8
Rubio 1.5

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 46.8
Obama 19.2
Edwards 16.2
Gore 8.9
Richardson 2.0
Biden 2.5
Kerry 1.6
Vilsack 1.4
Dodd 1.0
Warner 0.8
Clark 0.7

Republicans
McCain 48.1
Romney 17.1
Giuliani 15.0
Huckabee 4.2
Gingrich 3.6
Rice 2.9
Hagel 2.5
Brownback 2.5
Cheney 0.9
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.5
Thompson 0.5

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton surges to 80.0 for the Dem. nomination, while Romney moves up into second place on the GOP side.

Democratic nominee
Clinton 80.0
Warren 14.5
Biden 6.5

Republican nominee
Bush 29.6
Romney 17.4
Rubio 13.4
Paul 12.8
Walker 9.5
Christie 8.8
Cruz 6.8
Perry 5.8
Huckabee 5.0

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democratic nominee
Obama 91.6
Clinton 5.5

Republican nominee
Romney 23.4
Palin 13.8
Huckabee 10.5
Thune 10.1
Daniels 8.5
Pawlenty 7.8
Gingrich 4.7
Pence 3.4
Bachmann 2.5
Barbour 2.5
Huntsman 2.1
Trump 2.0
Paul 1.9
Christie 1.7
Johnson 1.4

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democrats
Clinton 48.0
Obama 19.2
Edwards 17.1
Gore 6.3
Biden 3.0
Richardson 1.6
Kerry 1.5
Vilsack 1.5
Clark 0.9
Warner 0.8
Dodd 0.7

Republicans
McCain 44.4
Romney 17.9
Giuliani 15.0
Huckabee 4.0
Gingrich 3.1
Rice 2.9
Brownback 2.7
Hagel 2.5
Cheney 0.9
Bush 0.6
Allen 0.5
Thompson 0.5
Bloomberg 0.5