latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Walker crashing even more—now below 6, and tied with Kasich.  Walker was above 20 back in early June.

Bush 35.6
Rubio 16.8
Trump 13.4
Fiorina 10.0
Carson 6.2
Kasich 5.8
Walker 5.8
Christie 4.2
Cruz 3.6
Huckabee 3.4

[Mr. Morden]

Democrats
Clinton 67.6
Biden 18.6
Sanders 14.5

Republicans
Bush 35.6
Rubio 17.4
Trump 14.1
Fiorina 10.0
Walker 6.5
Carson 6.2
Kasich 5.5
Christie 4.2
Huckabee 3.8
Cruz 3.6

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3027700#msg3027700

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1299213#msg1299213

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[Senator Cris]

Christie has the same % of McCain.

[bobloblaw]

How in the world can Betfair still be favoring Bush

[Mr. Morden]

How in the world can Betfair still be favoring Bush

It's not just Betfair.  Every major bookie still prices Bush as the favorite to win the nomination.

[The Other Castro]

How in the world can Betfair still be favoring Bush

It's not just Betfair.  Every major bookie still prices Bush as the favorite to win the nomination.

PredictIt seems to be getting closer to having Rubio in first.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Wow shorting Jeb would bring some huge profits.

[Mr. Morden]

Christie moves ahead of Kasich.  Meanwhile, Biden approaches 20.

Democrats
Clinton 67.6
Biden 19.3
Sanders 13.8

Republicans
Bush 35.6
Rubio 17.4
Trump 14.1
Fiorina 10.0
Walker 6.5
Carson 5.4
Christie 5.3
Kasich 4.8
Huckabee 3.8
Cruz 3.6

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3029838#msg3029838

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[eric82oslo]

Christie might/will soon be ahead of Carson and Walker as well. I've predicted there would be a Christie surge for months, just like there was for McCain (and many other candidates for that matter). You're not dead until you're lying in the grave. (And even then, some people have actually been burried alive lol.)

[Mr. Morden]

Since someone else asked me about where I get these #s from, I go to Oddschecker:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-candidate

and I have the “site settings” on the lefthand side of the screen set to “decimal”.  It lists all of the odds from different bookies, but most of those prices are set by bookies, not bettors.  “Betfair Exchange” (as distinct from regular “Betfair”) is near the righthand side, and they have prices set by individuals trading with each other.  Right now, for example, you’ve got Bush at 2.81.  1/2.81 = 0.356, so that translates to a 35.6% chance for Bush.

[Mr. Morden]

Walker drops out, and his share price drops to 0.4.  Updated GOP standings…

Up: Rubio, Fiorina
Down: Walker

Bush 35.5
Rubio 19.0
Trump 14.5
Fiorina 11.1
Carson 5.3
Kasich 4.8
Christie 4.5
Cruz 3.7
Huckabee 3.6
Paul 1.5

[Mr. Morden]

Biden and Rubio both hit 20.

Up: Biden, Rubio
Down: Trump

Democrats
Clinton 68.0
Biden 21.7
Sanders 13.1

Republicans
Bush 35.2
Rubio 20.0
Trump 12.8
Fiorina 10.7
Carson 5.8
Christie 4.8
Kasich 4.8
Cruz 4.2
Huckabee 3.7
Paul 1.5

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3031183#msg3031183

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[Mr. Morden]

Christie back up to 5.0:

Bush 34.5
Rubio 20.8
Trump 12.5
Fiorina 10.0
Carson 5.8
Christie 5.0
Kasich 4.3
Cruz 4.2
Huckabee 3.6
Paul 1.2

Four years ago today, Christie was thinking about running, which actually put him in third place on Intrade.  Fourth place was Palin, who was also only thinking about running:
 
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3032774#msg3032774

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[Angel of Death]

Bush's relative probability over Rubio seems a bit much to me. I think the ratio is 3:2 at best.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump losing ground.  Now below 10 and tied with Fiorina for 3rd place.  A month ago, he was at 17.4, and is now at 9.5, meaning a ~45% drop in share price over that time.

Democrats
Clinton 67.6
Biden 23.6
Sanders 12.5

Republicans
Bush 35.2
Rubio 21.7
Fiorina 9.5
Trump 9.5
Carson 6.2
Christie 5.3
Cruz 4.5
Kasich 4.3
Huckabee 3.6
Paul 1.2

Four years ago on Intrade at roughly this time:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3034307#msg3034307

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Eight years ago on Intrade at roughly this time:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1301635#msg1301635

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[Mr. Morden]

More Rubio surging and Bush dropping.  Trump rebounds, and alone in 3rd place again.

Up: Rubio, Trump
Down: Biden, Bush

Democrats
Clinton 67.6
Biden 20.8
Sanders 12.5

Republicans
Bush 32.4
Rubio 24.8
Trump 11.9
Fiorina 8.8
Carson 6.4
Christie 5.0
Cruz 4.3
Kasich 4.0
Huckabee 3.6
Paul 1.4

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3036235#msg3036235

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https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1302993#msg1302993

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[Mr. Morden]

Rubio’s closing the gap on Bush.  Will he be passing Bush for 1st place soon?

Democrats
Clinton 68.0
Biden 20.8
Sanders 12.8

Republicans
Bush 31.8
Rubio 26.6
Trump 11.6
Fiorina 9.1
Carson 6.5
Christie 4.8
Cruz 4.3
Kasich 4.0
Huckabee 3.6
Paul 1.4

Four years ago today on Intrade (when Christie was still toying with running):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3037074#msg3037074

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1304599#msg1304599

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[Mr. Morden]

The gap between Bush and Rubio continues to shrink.  Will Rubio soon retake the lead?  (He was leading just over a year ago, if you remember.)

Up: Clinton, Sanders, Trump
Down: Biden, Bush

Democrats
Clinton 69.0
Biden 19.3
Sanders 13.8

Republicans
Bush 30.5
Rubio 27.3
Trump 13.1
Fiorina 8.4
Carson 7.0
Christie 5.3
Cruz 4.3
Kasich 4.0
Huckabee 3.3
Jindal 1.3
Paul 1.2

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade (just before Christie said he wasn’t running):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3040320#msg3040320

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1306147#msg1306147

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[Mr. Morden]

Here's where things stood about a year ago:

Rubio 16.3
Paul 12.2
Bush 11.9
Christie 10.0
Perry 9.5
Romney 8.4
Cruz 6.0
Ryan 4.5
Walker 4.0
Huckabee 3.3

Remember when everyone was saying how overrated Rubio was?  Well, he's gained ground since then.

[Mr. Morden]

From last year:

How the hell is Rubio consistently ranking so high? I mean c'mon this is money we're talking about.

Even betting on Palin in December of 2010 makes more sense then this.

[Mr. Morden]

Paul now tied with Romney for 10th place on the GOP nomination.

Democrats
Clinton 68.5
Biden 19.6
Sanders 13.8

Republicans
Bush 30.5
Rubio 27.3
Trump 13.8
Fiorina 8.4
Carson 6.8
Christie 4.8
Cruz 4.3
Kasich 4.0
Huckabee 3.4
Paul 1.3
Romney 1.3

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade (Romney surged past 50 after Christie confirmed that he wouldn't run):

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3042992#msg3042992

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1308138#msg1308138

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[Mr. Morden]

Bush has just dropped to 30.0, so we're at:

Bush 30.0
Rubio 27.3

[Brittain33]

Does anyone feel Bush isn't overpriced here?

[Phony Moderate]

Does anyone feel Bush isn't overpriced here?

His price isn't quite as absurd as Giuliani's 40.0 at this point in 2007.

[Torie]

Does anyone feel Bush isn't overpriced here?

I think it is about right. Bush still has lots of money, and may get his act together, and nobody else really is getting traction other than Carson (Trump isn't going to be the nominee), and the doubts about Carson, are that he is inept at policy prescriptions, and articulating them effectively, so the assumption at some point is that he will far by the wayside. Fiorina has shown that she can stumble, and stumble pretty badly, and Rubio still looks like a kid, and gets agitated under pressure. While some say the Pubs have an "embarrassment of riches" in their field, the truth of the matter is that all of the candidates have material flaws. Romney looks better and better to me. Fancy that!