latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Hillary + Sanders is 101, is there a reason why you can't just sell both of them and be guaranteed a 1% profit?

I think there's both an issue of liquidity and an issue of the time horizon on which you'd see that profit.  Even if you can guarantee a 1% profit, the bets don't pay out until the Democratic National Convention makes the nomination official, and that's next July.  In the meantime, you could get 1% on your money just from putting it in a savings account, so why bother doing it this way?

I think this is related to why the longshot candidates are often overvalued.  Suppose you have a longshot candidate valued at 2% chance of winning the nomination.  Some people might disagree, and think he should really only be at 1%.  But are they really going to bother shorting him, just so they can make a 1% profit months down the line?  On the other hand, you could have someone who thinks 2% is too low, and he should really be at 3%.  That person has a strong incentive to buy up a bunch of shares, since even a small increase in the price can yield a big return.  So there's clearly an asymmetry there for events valued as being very far away from 50/50.

[Eraserhead]

Rubio and Carson are too high. Trump and Cruz are too low.

Carson's unorthodoxy is a loser, while Trump's is a winner, in other words. Got it.

Yep, pretty much.

[Mr. Morden]

Carson surges into third place…

Up: Trump, Carson
Down: Huckabee

Rubio 37.7
Trump 19.0
Carson 10.9
Bush 10.5
Cruz 10.0
Christie 5.3
Fiorina 2.9
Huckabee 2.1
Kasich 2.1
Paul 0.9

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3075222#msg3075222

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[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Looks about right. None of the establishment faves besides Rubio are going to last much longer, and Rubio can probably beat the Trump/Carson/Cruz trio head-on.

[mencken]

Cruz has nearly doubled his price in the last week.

[Zanas]

Question : is Betfair a gold standard or something ? Are other markets telling a different story ? I just found this market aggregator, which seems to be telling a somewhat close story, just not identical. Do y'all know about it and is it a good indicator or should we stick with just Betfair ?

[Mr. Morden]

Question : is Betfair a gold standard or something ? Are other markets telling a different story ? I just found this market aggregator, which seems to be telling a somewhat close story, just not identical. Do y'all know about it and is it a good indicator or should we stick with just Betfair ?

I just post Betfair prices because, as far as I can tell, it uses a similar mechanism to the old Intrade (in that prices are set by peer-to-peer transactions rather than bookies), and there isn't a $ limit on it like there is on Predict It.  But if anyone wants to post #s from other betting sites in this thread, feel free to do so.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush drops to fifth place.

Democrats
Clinton 89.3
Sanders 11.9

Republicans
Rubio 37.7
Trump 17.4
Carson 10.5
Cruz 10.0
Bush 9.5
Christie 5.5
Huckabee 2.8
Fiorina 2.1
Kasich 2.1
Paul 0.9
Jindal 0.8

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3077469#msg3077469

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1332071#msg1332071

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[mencken]

Funny how Paul's price was much higher in 2008 than 2012 despite him objectively coming much closer the second time. Obviously his 2008 price was massively inflated by zealous supporters, but why did it still add up to ~100%? Were Paul supporters also shorting Giuliani/Romney/McCain below their natural levels?

[Mr. Morden]

Cruz in third place now as Carson tumbles to 5th.  Bush rebounds to double digits.  Christie and Huckabee debate woes hit their share prices.

Up: Bush
Down: Carson, Christie, Huckabee

Democrats
Clinton 89.3
Sanders 11.6

Republicans
Rubio 38.5
Trump 17.4
Cruz 10.7
Bush 10.5
Carson 8.8
Christie 4.2
Fiorina 1.9
Huckabee 1.8
Kasich 1.8
Paul 0.9
Jindal 0.8
Romney 0.7
Graham 0.5
Ryan 0.4

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3077922#msg3077922

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[Mr. Morden]

Carson getting hit hard, and Cruz is the main beneficiary.  Rubio creeping up on 40.

Up: Cruz
Down: Carson

Rubio 39.4
Trump 18.0
Cruz 12.8
Bush 10.5
Carson 7.0
Christie 4.2
Kasich 2.4
Fiorina 1.9
Huckabee 1.8
Paul 0.9
Romney 0.7

[Eraserhead]

Why is Christie still that high? He didn't even get into the next big boy debate.

[Coolface Sock #42069]

Why is Christie still that high? He didn't even get into the next big boy debate.

Probably because people think his performance in the CNBC debate just hasn't made an impact on the polls yet but will soon.

[Likely Voter]

Why is Christie still that high? He didn't even get into the next big boy debate.

Probably because people think his performance in the CNBC debate just hasn't made an impact on the polls yet but will soon.

Christie spiked up after the CNN debate which was seven weeks ago, passing Kasich. But since then he hasn't really turned that (or the CNBC debate performance) into polling. Kasich still outpolls Christie both in NH and nationally. And now Christie isn't even in the main FBN debate. Kasich also has more money and of course much better at home favorables and of course OH is more important electoral state. I can see no reason why Christie is priced higher than Kasich. At PredictIt Kasich is ahead of Christie in overall GOP winner and NH winner.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton hits 90…

Up: Trump
Down: Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 11.4

Republicans
Rubio 38.8
Trump 19.3
Cruz 11.6
Bush 10.0
Carson 6.4
Christie 3.7
Kasich 2.6
Fiorina 1.9
Huckabee 1.5
Jindal 1.2
Paul 0.9
Romney 0.7
Graham 0.5
Santorum 0.4

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3081873#msg3081873

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1334415#msg1334415

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[mencken]

Republicans
Rubio 38.8
Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1334415#msg1334415

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Hyped media frontrunner with little support in the early states to show for it? Check.

Trump 19.3
Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1334415#msg1334415

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Centrist businessman staking out rabidly right-wing positions on major issues to pander to conservatives? Check.

Cruz 11.6
Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1334415#msg1334415

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Niche candidate for constitutionalists with little chance of winning over the Republican mainstream? Check.

Bush 10.0
Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1334415#msg1334415

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Establishment fronturnner long since written off for dead? Check.

Carson 6.4
Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:
https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1334415#msg1334415

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Dark-horse evangelical firebrand? Check.

So, maybe Bush has a chance after all?

[/]

Clinton hits 90…

D:

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

Christie=McCain not Bush. He got burnt off far too late. Chris has got this.

[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-debate update: For Rubio, this is 40.  His share price is almost the same as his age.

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 10.7

Republicans
Rubio 41.0
Trump 19.6
Cruz 11.1
Bush 10.7
Carson 7.0
Christie 3.7
Kasich 2.8
Fiorina 1.9
Huckabee 1.5
Jindal 1.2

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3083667#msg3083667

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1336470#msg1336470

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[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Clinton hits 90…

D:

She's only 82 on PredictIt, and that's despite the fact that the numbers add to well over 100%. Bernie has 20.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton hits 90…

D:

She's only 82 on PredictIt, and that's despite the fact that the numbers add to well over 100%. Bernie has 20.

PredictIt has strict limits on how much you can invest though, doesn't it?  That's part of why the #s can be a bit wonky, adding up to so much more than 100.  There isn't that much money at stake.

All of the bookies that allow unlimited betting (like Betfair) have Clinton somewhere between 88% and 93%.

[The Mikado]

I think 90 is a bit high, simply because I'm not sure the chances of Clinton having a stroke or plane crash or whatever between now and July are sub-10%. Eight months is a long time to just blithely assume someone will remain in good health. Just IMO.

[Lurker]

I think 90 is a bit high, simply because I'm not sure the chances of Clinton having a stroke or plane crash or whatever between now and July are sub-10%. Eight months is a long time to just blithely assume someone will remain in good health. Just IMO.

Really? If you look at the percentage of healthyish 68 year olds who die or suffer a very serious illness within a year, I am sure it would be far less than 10%. And Hillary easily seems at least of average health for her age, as well as obviously having access to the best of medical treatments).

(As for the risk of assasination or something like that, I can't see it as being plausible enough to affect the odds at all)

[Mr. Morden]

Post-debate update:

Up: Cruz, Christie
Down: Sanders, Trump

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 9.1

Republicans
Rubio 41.3
Trump 17.7
Cruz 12.5
Bush 10.5
Carson 7.5
Christie 4.8
Kasich 3.3
Fiorina 1.9
Huckabee 1.2
Jindal 1.2

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3086845#msg3086845

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Eight years ago at about this point on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1337606#msg1337606

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[Mr. Morden]

Final pre-Dem. debate update: Nothing much happening on the Dem. side.  On the Republican side, Romney’s on the upswing, despite not running.  He’s now in 8th place to win the GOP nomination.  And Fiorina’s taken a serious beating, now down to 1.0.

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 9.5
O’Malley 1.5

Republicans
Rubio 42.6
Trump 17.7
Cruz 12.8
Bush 11.1
Carson 7.2
Christie 4.0
Kasich 2.6
Romney 2.1
Huckabee 1.1
Fiorina 1.0
Paul 1.0

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3089337#msg3089337

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1339126#msg1339126

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