latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Kasich is crashing.  Now behind Romney, who’s managed to work his way up to 7th place.

Up: Rubio, Cruz
Down: Kasich

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 9.5
O’Malley 1.2

Republicans
Rubio 44.1
Trump 18.3
Cruz 13.8
Bush 10.5
Carson 6.4
Christie 3.7
Romney 1.8
Kasich 1.3
Huckabee 1.1
Paul 1.0

Winning Individual
Clinton 54.9
Rubio 18.6
Trump 8.4
Sanders 6.0
Cruz 4.5
Bush 3.8
Carson 2.6

[Lyin' Steve]

Who'd have ever thought that Trump would be the 3rd most likely person to become president of the United States?

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

I've spent so much energy complaining about why Jeb Bush's value should be 0, but at least there is a reasonable case for him. Sanders is frankly absurd as his only chance is if Clinton dies. The risk-reward to that 12.5% after-fee profit on PredictIt is just more easy money. His supporters are delusional.

RE: the above post...Trump's implied odds on PredictIt are even higher...77%! but you can't take those at face value as much because of the inflated prices. Still over 50 is mighty impressive.

[Mr. Morden]

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 9.5

Republicans
Rubio 43.3
Trump 18.6
Cruz 13.1
Bush 10.5
Carson 7.0
Christie 3.7
Kasich 1.9
Romney 1.6
Huckabee 1.1
Paul 1.0

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3093231#msg3093231

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1341066#msg1341066

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[Mr. Morden]

Trump now above 20 to win the nomination.  The Romney bubble has deflated, as Mitt’s back below 1.0.  Meanwhile, Cruz is now narrowly ahead of Sanders in 4th place on winning individual.

Up: Trump
Down: Rubio

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 9.1

Republicans
Rubio 41.8
Trump 20.4
Cruz 13.8
Bush 10.7
Carson 6.5
Christie 4.2
Kasich 1.5
Paul 1.0
Romney 0.9
Santorum 0.9

Winning Individual
Clinton 54.9
Rubio 18.6
Trump 8.8
Cruz 5.4
Sanders 5.3
Bush 4.2
Carson 2.5

[The Other Castro]

Interestingly, Rubio's general election chances assuming he's the nominee is only slightly above Trump's chances, with Rubio having a 44.5% chance and Trump having a 43.14% chance.

[Mr. Morden]

Note that Santorum is at 0.9.  Whereas four years ago at this time, he was only at 0.8 (and went on to win several primaries). 

Up: Rubio, Trump
Down: Bush

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 8.8

Republicans
Rubio 44.4
Trump 22.6
Cruz 13.1
Bush 9.5
Carson 6.2
Christie 3.4
Huckabee 1.1
Kasich 1.0
Santorum 0.9
Romney 0.8

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3094010#msg3094010

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1343077#msg1343077

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[Phony Moderate]

So Rubio is within 0.1 of Giuliani and the latter went on of course to win, what, one delegate?

[Mr. Morden]

Carson’s really crashed big time.  He was above 10 as recently as Nov. 5.  Now below 5.  Will Christie end up passing him?

Kasich’s also been bid all the way down to 0.4.  OK, I get that he was overvalued before and is now a serious longshot, but 0.4?  I don’t think that’ll last.

Up: Cruz
Down: Sanders, Carson

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 7.2
O’Malley 1.0
Gore 0.8

Republicans
Rubio 44.1
Trump 22.6
Cruz 14.1
Bush 9.5
Carson 4.8
Christie 3.8
Huckabee 1.1
Romney 0.8
Paul 0.5
Fiorina 0.4
Kasich 0.4

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3097110#msg3097110

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1345830#msg1345830

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[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

I see it's that time in the primary where Gore has people betting on him for unknown reasons.

[Lyin' Steve]

How was Gore so high at this point in 08?  The democratic party had a very strong slate, there was no need for a savior.

[Mr. Morden]

How was Gore so high at this point in 08?  The democratic party had a very strong slate, there was no need for a savior.

To be honest, I think much of it was that there'd been so much trading on him in 2005 and 2006 that there was just an enormous # of shares for and against him that people were holding on to by late 2007, and so people were dumping them by that point, so they could get their money back without having to wait until August 2008, when all the shares would cash out.  Pretty sure that's also why Condoleeza Rice was still being traded at that point.

[Lyin' Steve]

How was Gore so high at this point in 08?  The democratic party had a very strong slate, there was no need for a savior.

To be honest, I think much of it was that there'd been so much trading on him in 2005 and 2006 that there was just an enormous # of shares for and against him that people were holding on to by late 2007, and so people were dumping them by that point, so they could get their money back without having to wait until August 2008, when all the shares would cash out.  Pretty sure that's also why Condoleeza Rice was still being traded at that point.

Yeah but that doesn't explain why he was at 4.6, does it?

[Mr. Morden]

How was Gore so high at this point in 08?  The democratic party had a very strong slate, there was no need for a savior.

To be honest, I think much of it was that there'd been so much trading on him in 2005 and 2006 that there was just an enormous # of shares for and against him that people were holding on to by late 2007, and so people were dumping them by that point, so they could get their money back without having to wait until August 2008, when all the shares would cash out.  Pretty sure that's also why Condoleeza Rice was still being traded at that point.

Yeah but that doesn't explain why he was at 4.6, does it?

Well, look at it this way.  In 2006, when Gore running is still a decent possibility, Trader A buys a share of Gore to win the Dem. nomination at a price of 15.0 (that was his price in August 2006: https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=40420.msg966748#msg966748 ).  Because Intrade works peer-to-peer, that means that Trader B is “shorting” Gore at the same price—equivalent to “buying” “Gore to NOT win the nomination” at 85.0.

These two folks hold onto their shares for a year, by which point it’s clear that Gore is not running, and Trader B will be the one to cash in on being right.  However, Trader B doesn’t want to wait around another year to get his money, so he offers to “sell back” his share to Trader A at 5.0 / 95.0.  Thus, Trader A, while having been wrong, still gets a third of his $ back, and Trader B gets to make ~10%+ profit.  He could have waited another year, and gotten the additional ~5% profit, but he didn’t want to wait that long.  He could be using that $ for other things in the meantime.

Since there were so many shares on Gore traded in 2005/2006, it took forever for this kind of thing to unwind.  If the market was more efficient, it wouldn’t have taken that long, but it isn’t, so it did.

[Mr. Morden]

Carson continues to plummet.  Christie passes him for 5th place.

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 8.1

Republicans
Rubio 44.1
Trump 21.7
Cruz 14.5
Bush 10.0
Christie 4.3
Carson 3.7
Huckabee 1.1
Romney 0.9
Kasich 0.7
Fiorina 0.4

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3098644#msg3098644

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[Mr. Morden]

Cruz has big gains, taking it largely out of Rubio.

Up: Cruz
Down: Rubio

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 7.5
Biden 1.2
O’Malley 1.0

Republicans
Rubio 41.8
Trump 21.7
Cruz 17.4
Bush 10.5
Christie 4.2
Carson 3.6
Huckabee 1.1
Romney 1.0
Fiorina 0.7
Kasich 0.6

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3101482#msg3101482

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1347291#msg1347291

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[mencken]

I am still scratching my head at how Bush is still at 10.

[IceSpear]

How was Gore so high at this point in 08?  The democratic party had a very strong slate, there was no need for a savior.

Only in retrospect. I'm sure in 2007/2008 there were plenty of Beltway insiders (Gore's only constituency) pining for an alternative to the "polarizing" Clinton, "inexperienced" Obama, and "untrustworthy" Edwards.

There's always a market among the Beltway pundits for a white horse mythical candidacy that never materializes. Like 57 Republicans are running and they're still chatting about Mitt.

[Mr. Morden]

The early Cruz-mania that followed that Quinnipiac poll eases a bit…

Up: Bush
Down: Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 7.2
Biden 1.2
O’Malley 1.1

Republicans
Rubio 41.0
Trump 22.6
Cruz 15.4
Bush 12.8
Christie 4.3
Carson 4.0
Romney 1.4
Fiorina 1.1
Huckabee 1.1
Kasich 0.9

Four years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3103488#msg3103488

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1349546#msg1349546

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[Mr. Morden]

For fun, here's what the prices were a year ago:

Bush 20.0
Rubio 15.8
Romney 12.8
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.9
Walker 10.9
Cruz 6.2
Perry 5.3
Pence 4.3
Ryan 4.2
Huckabee 3.3
Jindal 3.3
Portman 3.3

I didn't list the share price for Carson at the time, but it was 1.9.  And Betfair hadn't even set up a market for Trump at that point.  (Though some of the other bookies had, and he was trading below 1.0.)

Anyway, this was back when so many people on this forum were wondering how Rubio could be so "overvalued" at a price of ~15.  Remember that? 

[Mr. Morden]

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 7.2
Biden 1.1
O’Malley 1.1

Republicans
Rubio 40.3
Trump 23.1
Cruz 14.9
Bush 11.6
Christie 4.5
Carson 3.3
Huckabee 1.1
Fiorina 1.0
Kasich 0.9
Romney 0.9

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93015.msg3104417#msg3104417

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=50282.msg1350500#msg1350500

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[Lyin' Steve]

I would buy the hell out of Cruz

[The Other Castro]

I would buy the hell out of Cruz

I got about 500 Cruz at 12 cents, really lucked out on that one.

[Eraserhead]

Biden is higher than O'Malley, haha.

[Sprouts Farmers Market ✘]

PredictIt goes to linked pricing tomorrow so one last update on the current format before we change over and all prices go down:

Marco Rubio: 40
Ted Cruz: 23
Donald Trump: 20
Jeb Bush: 12
Chris Christie: 8

John Kasich: 5
Ben Carson: 5
Rand Paul: 4

Paul Ryan: 3
Carly Fiorina: 3
Mitt Romney: 2
Mike Huckabee: 2

Kasich still too high! Carson and Paul definitely have better chances than him.

Just holding my Bush shares in this market though I might unload those soon. The 4 contenders should pick up his value.

That only adds up to 127 (excluding the penny guys) so I don't know if it will drop too much more considering it was way over 200 at one point.