latest Betfair odds
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 16, 2024, 12:59:19 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2016 U.S. Presidential Election
  latest Betfair odds		 « previous next »
Pages: 1 ... 26 27 28 29 30 [31] 32 33 34
Author Topic: latest Betfair odds  (Read 118829 times)
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #750 on: April 13, 2016, 01:52:08 AM »
Paul Ryan’s denial causes his share price to crash…

Up: Clinton, Trump, Kasich
Down: Sanders, Ryan

Democrats
Clinton 89.3
Sanders 10.9
Biden 1.8

Republicans
Trump 52.6
Cruz 35.2
Kasich 7.5
Ryan 0.7
Rubio 0.6
Romney 0.4
Bush 0.3

Winning Individual
Clinton 68.0
Trump 13.4
Cruz 7.0
Sanders 6.0
Kasich 2.8
Biden 1.4
Logged
Doimper
Doctor Imperialism
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 3,030


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #751 on: April 13, 2016, 01:54:05 AM »
Quote from: Torie on April 04, 2016, 10:16:52 AM
Quote from: Ronnie on April 04, 2016, 09:54:40 AM
Can someone remind me why Torie's avatar is red?

Local reasons, but I really consider myself more or less a true independent now. The GOP is in a bad place in general right now - a very bad place. The Dems are not any better. I like Ryan because he's smart, principled, issue focused, genial, works well with others, and relatively reasonable and pragmatic. That makes him sadly rather unusual in the Pub party these days, among those with much profile at least.

The idea that the Democrats are anywhere near as dysfunctional as the Republicans are right now is insane
Logged
BlueSwan
blueswan
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,340
Denmark


Political Matrix
E: -4.26, S: -7.30

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #752 on: April 13, 2016, 02:20:28 AM »
Clinton still seems underpriced. Sure, Sanders could theoretically still win it, but it would take some very special circumstances and the chances of that are surely well below 10%.
Logged
IceSpear
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 31,840
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.19, S: -6.43

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #753 on: April 13, 2016, 02:33:43 AM »
Quote from: BlueSwan on April 13, 2016, 02:20:28 AM
Clinton still seems underpriced. Sure, Sanders could theoretically still win it, but it would take some very special circumstances and the chances of that are surely well below 10%.

Unopposed McCain, unopposed Romney, and unopposed Obama were only at 95-96% at points, so I think that's partly just a function of the market. The rest could be explained by people thinking she'll be indicted.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #754 on: April 14, 2016, 01:50:08 AM »
Up: Kasich
Down: Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 89.3
Sanders 10.5
Biden 2.1

Republicans
Trump 51.8
Cruz 33.9
Kasich 8.8
Ryan 1.3
Rubio 0.7
Bush 0.4
Romney 0.4
Walker 0.1
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #755 on: April 15, 2016, 05:42:59 AM »
Up: Trump
Down: Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 90.1
Sanders 10.5

Republicans
Trump 55.9
Cruz 31.8
Kasich 8.1
Ryan 1.4
Rubio 0.7
Romney 0.4
Bush 0.4
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #756 on: April 15, 2016, 08:27:46 AM »
Quote from: IceSpear on April 13, 2016, 02:33:43 AM
Quote from: BlueSwan on April 13, 2016, 02:20:28 AM
Clinton still seems underpriced. Sure, Sanders could theoretically still win it, but it would take some very special circumstances and the chances of that are surely well below 10%.

Unopposed McCain, unopposed Romney, and unopposed Obama were only at 95-96% at points, so I think that's partly just a function of the market. The rest could be explained by people thinking she'll be indicted.

Hedging on that, also hedging on a New York miracle.
Logged
Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
Sprouts
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 14,764
Italy


Political Matrix
E: -4.90, S: 1.74

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #757 on: April 15, 2016, 04:09:58 PM »
Wow, Trump skyrockets again on PredictIt:

Trump 59
Cruz 30
Kasich 11
Ryan 6
Romney 4

I just sold 40% of my Yes stake in this market.
Logged
dax00
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,422


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #758 on: April 15, 2016, 04:33:29 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on April 15, 2016, 04:17:26 PM
55-60% seems high for Trump right now, unless they know something we don't about his chances of winning over 50-100 unpledged delegates.
Cruz's national GOP poll numbers look like they've been torpedoed for some odd reason I've not a clue about.
Logged
The Other Castro
Castro2020
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,230
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #759 on: April 15, 2016, 05:30:03 PM »
Quote from: Skill and Chance on April 15, 2016, 04:17:26 PM
55-60% seems high for Trump right now, unless they know something we don't about his chances of winning over 50-100 unpledged delegates.

It may have to do with that one RNC officer saying Trump can probably win if he has more than 1100 delegates (which the RNC as a whole quickly tried to shut down).
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #760 on: April 17, 2016, 06:57:45 AM »
Clinton’s now over 70 in winning individual.

Up: Trump
Down: Sanders, Cruz, Kasich

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 8.8
Biden 1.9

Republicans
Trump 58.5
Cruz 28.8
Kasich 6.5
Ryan 1.2
Rubio 0.7
Romney 0.4
Bush 0.4

Winning Individual
Clinton 70.4
Trump 16.3
Cruz 6.8
Sanders 4.0
Kasich 2.3
Logged
Wisconsin+17
Ben Kenobi
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 6,134
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #761 on: April 17, 2016, 11:28:26 AM »
Quote
You must be logged in to read this quote.

It's Karl Rove's game. He did that against Santorum and he's doing the same against Cruz.
Logged
100% pro-life no matter what
ExtremeRepublican
Moderators
Atlas Icon
*****
Posts: 11,716


Political Matrix
E: 7.35, S: 5.57


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #762 on: April 17, 2016, 11:32:59 AM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on April 17, 2016, 06:57:45 AM
Clinton’s now over 70 in winning individual.

Up: Trump
Down: Sanders, Cruz, Kasich

Democrats
Clinton 90.9
Sanders 8.8
Biden 1.9

Republicans
Trump 58.5
Cruz 28.8
Kasich 6.5
Ryan 1.2
Rubio 0.7
Romney 0.4
Bush 0.4

Winning Individual
Clinton 70.4
Trump 16.3
Cruz 6.8
Sanders 4.0
Kasich 2.3


The two best bets:

1. (If you can do these): Republicans winning at 3-1.  This election is a tossup right now.
2. Trump not winning at greater than even odds- I would be shocked if he is actually the nominee
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #763 on: April 20, 2016, 05:21:32 AM »
Post-NY update:

Up: Clinton, Trump
Down: Sanders, Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 94.3
Sanders 5.4
Biden 1.9

Republicans
Trump 65.4
Cruz 27.3
Kasich 5.7
Ryan 1.4

Dem. VP
Castro 29.6
Warren 17.4
Kaine 14.9
Perez 14.9
Booker 13.4

GOP VP
Kasich 26.0
Martinez 11.6
Cruz 11.4
Rubio 10.5
Haley 8.8
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #764 on: April 20, 2016, 08:06:42 AM »
Quote from: ExtremeRepublican on April 17, 2016, 11:32:59 AM

2. Trump not winning at greater than even odds- I would be shocked if he is actually the nominee

The best buying opportunity might be after he loses big in Indiana and everyone freaks out.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #765 on: April 22, 2016, 05:37:02 AM »
Up: Trump
Down: Cruz, Kasich

Democrats
Clinton 94.3
Sanders 5.0
Biden 1.6

Republicans
Trump 67.6
Cruz 25.4
Kasich 4.5
Ryan 1.4
Rubio 0.8

Winning Individual
Clinton 74.1
Trump 16.3
Cruz 4.5
Sanders 2.1
Kasich 1.3
Biden 1.0
Ryan 0.6
Logged
PresidentTRUMP
2016election
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 945


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #766 on: April 22, 2016, 08:39:06 AM »
Looking like it will be Trump vs. Clinton in the General.

Best bet in my view right now is to bet Trump at the current odds to win the general. Hillary is clearly the favorite but those odds are appealing as i think it will be a very close election.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,612
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #767 on: April 22, 2016, 09:33:24 AM »
« Edited: April 22, 2016, 09:49:09 AM by MohamedChalid »
Looks about right, but the Trumpster's 74% 67% (typo) seem a little too high. I think he will fall short of the 1,237 delegates.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #768 on: April 22, 2016, 09:48:08 AM »
Quote from: MohamedChalid on April 22, 2016, 09:33:24 AM
Looks about right, but the Trumpster's 74% seem a little too high. I think he will fall short of the 1,237 delegates.

Trump is at 67.6, not 74.
Logged
Sir Mohamed
MohamedChalid
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 22,612
United States



Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #769 on: April 22, 2016, 09:49:43 AM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on April 22, 2016, 09:48:08 AM
Quote from: MohamedChalid on April 22, 2016, 09:33:24 AM
Looks about right, but the Trumpster's 74% seem a little too high. I think he will fall short of the 1,237 delegates.

Trump is at 67.6, not 74.


That's what I meant. I think it's actually not higher than 50%.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #770 on: April 25, 2016, 06:17:40 AM »
Up: Trump
Down: Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 94.3
Sanders 4.8
Biden 1.6

Republicans
Trump 70.9
Cruz 21.7
Kasich 3.8
Ryan 1.9
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #771 on: April 25, 2016, 12:17:44 PM »
Quote from: Mr. Morden on April 25, 2016, 06:17:40 AM
Up: Trump
Down: Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 94.3
Sanders 4.8
Biden 1.6

Republicans
Trump 70.9
Cruz 21.7
Kasich 3.8
Ryan 1.9


When was Cruzich announced?  Is this pre- or post-Cruzich?
Logged
Јas
Jas
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,705
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #772 on: April 26, 2016, 10:59:41 AM »
« Edited: April 27, 2016, 01:58:08 AM by Јas »
Not sure if this is what Mr. Morden uses, or if it may be helpful to him in reducing his calculation work, but https://primary.guide/ appears to generate the same data.
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #773 on: April 27, 2016, 08:06:07 AM »
Trump surges and Cruz plunges.

Up: Clinton, Trump
Down: Cruz, Kasich

Democrats
Clinton 96.2
Sanders 4.2
Biden 1.9

Republicans
Trump 78.1
Cruz 15.8
Kasich 2.5
Ryan 1.1
Bush 0.5
Rubio 0.5
Logged
Mr. Morden
Atlas Legend
*****
Posts: 44,073
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #774 on: April 28, 2016, 08:52:49 AM »
Trump keeps surging.  Kasich is almost down into Rubio territory…

Up: Trump
Down: Cruz

Democrats
Clinton 96.2
Sanders 3.3
Biden 1.9

Republicans
Trump 82.6
Cruz 13.8
Kasich 1.8
Rubio 1.1
Ryan 0.7

Dem VP
Castro 29.6
Kaine 14.5
Warren 12.8
Perez 10.7
Patrick 10.5

GOP VP
Kasich 20.8
Christie 14.9
Martinez 11.1
Fiorina 10.9
Rubio 10.5
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 26 27 28 29 30 [31] 32 33 34  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.053 seconds with 13 queries.