latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Dem VP nominee
Castro 29.4
Warren 16.7
Kaine 16.1
Sanders 12.2

Where can I go to make money off these people who still think Castro has a 1-in-3 chance of being the VP?

http://sports.betfair.com/?mi=120637747&ex=1

[Holmes]

I'm surprised that the Betfair people are still so high on Castro. I feel like that ship has sailed.

[Bull Moose Base]

Dem VP nominee
Castro 29.4
Warren 16.7
Kaine 16.1
Sanders 12.2

Where can I go to make money off these people who still think Castro has a 1-in-3 chance of being the VP?

http://sports.betfair.com/?mi=120637747&ex=1

Also Kaine is probably closer to 4 or 5 in 6 than 1 in 6.

[Mr. Morden]

Biden ahead of Sanders for the Democratic nomination.  Trump below 95 to win the GOP nomination for the first time since the Indiana primary.

Winning Individual
Clinton 74.6
Trump 22.3

Democratic presidential nominee
Clinton 96.2
Biden 3.1
Sanders 1.8

Republican presidential nominee
Trump 93.5
Bush 2.5
Cruz 2.4
Ryan 1.5

Democratic VP nominee
Warren 27.3
Kaine 26.0
Castro 21.2
Perez 11.9
Brown 11.1

Republican VP nominee
Sessions 26.0
Gingrich 24.2
Kasich 12.2
Ernst 7.2
Christie 7.0

[°Leprechaun]

What about Stein & Johnson?

[Mr. Morden]

What about Stein & Johnson?

Gary Johnson to win the presidency is at 0.4.  Stein....they don't have a market for her.  Some of the other betting sites do, and they tend to have her in a similar range to Johnson.  A couple of tenths of a percent.

[°Leprechaun]

What about Stein & Johnson?

Gary Johnson to win the presidency is at 0.4.  Stein....they don't have a market for her.  Some of the other betting sites do, and they tend to have her in a similar range to Johnson.  A couple of tenths of a percent.

Good news! They can only go up. If Stein has one vote 33 days before the election and doubles it every day she'll get 8,589,934,592 votes!

[°Leprechaun]

As it is there are 145 days to go.

[kyc0705]

What about Stein & Johnson?

Gary Johnson to win the presidency is at 0.4.  Stein....they don't have a market for her.  Some of the other betting sites do, and they tend to have her in a similar range to Johnson.  A couple of tenths of a percent.

Good news! They can only go up. If Stein has one vote 33 days before the election and doubles it every day she'll get 8,589,934,592 votes!

That really is what her campaign emails sound like though

[President Johnson]

LOL at Jeb. Who the heck thinks that Mr. Low energy ends up as nominee? He got crushed.

[Mr. Morden]

Trump slips further.  Now below 20 to win the presidency, and closing in on 90 for the nomination.  In fact, Trump is now at exactly the same share price to win the nomination as he was the day before the Indiana primary….back when Cruz and Kasich were still running.

Winning Individual
Clinton 75.8
Trump 19.2

Democratic presidential nominee
Clinton 96.2
Biden 2.9
Sanders 1.4

Republican presidential nominee
Trump 90.9
Ryan 2.6
Bush 2.2
Cruz 1.3
Kasich 1.3
Rubio 1.1

Democratic VP nominee
Kaine 31.4
Warren 27.3
Castro 15.8
Perez 11.6
Brown 10.5

Republican VP nominee
Sessions 26.0
Gingrich 20.4
Kasich 12.5
Christie 10.5
Fallin 8.8

I should also note that Betfair is really behind the times on the Dem. VP market.  They still haven’t added Becerra, though in most of the other online betting sites, he’s at about 5th place.

[Ljube]

Now is a good time to bet on Trump.

He can't fall any lower, I guess,

[Mr. Morden]

Trump sinks even lower.  Now below 90 to win the nomination.  Sessions continues to surge in the Republican VP market.

Winning Individual
Clinton 75.2
Trump 18.5

Democratic presidential nominee
Clinton 96.2
Biden 3.7
Sanders 1.9

Republican presidential nominee
Trump 87.0
Ryan 3.1
Bush 2.6
Cruz 1.9
Rubio 1.6
Kasich 1.4
Romney 1.1

Democratic VP nominee
Kaine 29.6
Warren 22.6
Castro 16.3
Perez 11.9
Booker 10.0
Patrick 9.5

Republican VP nominee
Sessions 32.9
Gingrich 19.6
Kasich 12.8
Christie 10.0
Ernst 5.3
Brown 4.5

[Sir Mohamed]

These numbers are, quite frankly, largely nonsense. Does anyone think that Jeb has a higher chance for the nomination than Cruz? That’s laughable.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Trump sinks even lower.  Now below 90 to win the nomination.  Sessions continues to surge in the Republican VP market.

Winning Individual
Clinton 75.2
Trump 18.5

I'd be surprised if this wasn't Trump's general election floor until late October.  So... buy?

[President Johnson]

LOL, Mr. Low energy still in for the presidential nomination. Rediculous!

[Mr. Morden]

Trump rebounds, and is now above 90 to win the nomination.  Still on shakier ground than Clinton though.  Kaine opens up a big lead in the Dem. nomination market.  Betfair still doesn’t even have a market for Becerra, yet he’s in fourth or fifth place on all the betting sites that list him.  I’ve added the share price for him on totesport.com.

Winning Individual
Clinton 73.5
Trump 22.7

Democratic presidential nominee
Clinton 97.1
Biden 2.6
Sanders 1.5

Republican presidential nominee
Trump 91.7
Bush 2.5
Ryan 2.1
Rubio 1.2
Cruz 1.1
Romney 0.8

Democratic VP nominee
Kaine 38.0
Warren 18.6
Castro 17.4
Perez 11.6
Becerra 9.1 (totesport.com)

Republican VP nominee
Sessions 32.4
Gingrich 22.2
Kasich 13.8
Christie 12.2
Cotton 11.6

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

I'm starting to do my own aggregate odds on the GE winners, averaged across multiple betting sites.  Just for my own tiny contribution.  Source:
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/winner

June 24
Clinton: 76.01%
Trump: 28.20%

June 27
Clinton: 75.73%
Trump: 28.62%
Sanders: 3.14%
Biden: 3.22% *
Ryan: 1.43

* Weird outlier: for some reason, Matchbook.com is offering 24/5 odds on Biden, lol

When I have enough data points, I'll make a graph.

[Sir Mohamed]

President Trump won’t happen. Don’t worry.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

President Trump won’t happen. Don’t worry.

I don't think the odds on him will really tank until late October, however.  Gamblers are holding out for October surprises, criminal motions against Clinton, what have you.

[Sir Mohamed]

President Trump won’t happen. Don’t worry.

I don't think the odds on him will really tank until late October, however.  Gamblers are holding out for October surprises, criminal motions against Clinton, what have you.

Even if (and that’s a very big if) Clinton has to get out and Uncle Joe would step in, he would crush the Trumpster badly. His party is totally divided, he has angered too many important voter groups and the electoral college is absolutely not in his favor. He has already shown that he’s not willing to change and a majority of Americans won’t elect a narcissist bully with bigoted language.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

President Trump won’t happen. Don’t worry.

I don't think the odds on him will really tank until late October, however.  Gamblers are holding out for October surprises, criminal motions against Clinton, what have you.

Even if (and that’s a very big if) Clinton has to get out and Uncle Joe would step in, he would crush the Trumpster badly. His party is totally divided, he has angered too many important voter groups and the electoral college is absolutely not in his favor. He has already shown that he’s not willing to change and a majority of Americans won’t elect a narcissist bully with bigoted language.

At the speed thing are moving, if there is some kind of "disqualifying event" against Clinton, there won't be time to replace her on the ballot.  At that point the de facto nominee would be the running mate.  Clinton would take the oath, the Veep-Elect would take his/hers, Clinton would immediately resign, and the Veep would be sworn in as POTUS 46.

The question is, would the voters understand that they would be electing the running mate as President?  Would this be so damaging as to hand the election to Trump?

Note: This won't actually happen.

[Mr. Morden]

Following the latest reporting from the WaPo, Gingrich is now back in the lead in the GOP VP race, narrowly ahead of Sessions.

Dem VP
Kaine 45.0
Warren 20.4
Castro 14.1
Perez 8.8
Brown 7.5
Becerra 7.0

GOP VP
Gingrich 25.4
Sessions 23.6
Kasich 20.4
Christie 12.2
Carson 5.8
Ernst 5.4

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152060.msg3340843#msg3340843

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Eight years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=78538.msg1615155#msg1615155

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[IceSpear]

Thank god Obama didn't pick Webb. Biden's/Ryan's placements tells you all you need to know about the validity of these VP markets...

I do find it interesting that Palin was #3. Wasn't the conventional wisdom once McCain picked her that she "came out of nowhere?"

[Mr. Morden]

I do find it interesting that Palin was #3. Wasn't the conventional wisdom once McCain picked her that she "came out of nowhere?"

She wasn't talked about much in the early media speculation, but then the early media speculation about McCain's running mate was mostly about Pawlenty and Romney, and everyone was confused about who the third most likely choice might be.  In any case, the betting markets were always more bullish on Palin than the cable news pundits were, though even on the betting markets she dropped down to something like 6th or 7th place by mid-August, as names like Rob Portman and Tom Ridge started gaining.  But Pawlenty and Romney were the top two until the very end.