latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Btw, here on the Atlas forum, Palin was being talked about as being one of the more likely dark horse VP options as far back as 2007, before people even knew who the presidential nominee would be.  But then when it was announced in March 2008 that she was pregnant again, people figured that was the end of it:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=72000.0

[Sir Mohamed]

Kasich at 20% for the VP slot? How about no?

[Lyin' Steve]

Thank god Obama didn't pick Webb. Biden's/Ryan's placements tells you all you need to know about the validity of these VP markets...

I do find it interesting that Palin was #3. Wasn't the conventional wisdom once McCain picked her that she "came out of nowhere?"

Yeah, very surprised to see Palin at #3, and no sign of Kaine.  

[Mr. Morden]

Pence now up to 5th place to be Trump’s VP, based on the recent reporting.  But the market just won’t quit on John Kasich, despite the fact that he hasn’t even endorsed Trump, and every indication is that he wouldn’t accept the job.

Dem VP
Kaine 42.2
Warren 20.8
Castro 13.8
Perez 8.4
Brown 7.2
Becerra 6.8

GOP VP
Gingrich 26.0
Kasich 20.4
Sessions 16.8
Christie 14.5
Pence 8.4
Corker 6.5

[President Johnson]

Kasich at 20% for the VP slot is just nonsense.

[Mr. Morden]

Kaine, Gingrich, and Pence all running strong.  Sherrod Brown also had a massive surge, but looks like it might just be one guy who bought at a hugely inflated price.  By tomorrow, Brown will probably be back down to about 10.

Dem VP
Kaine 45.0
Brown 21.7
Warren 19.0
Castro 17.4
Booker 9.1
Perez 9.1

GOP VP
Gingrich 29.2
Pence 27.7
Kasich 11.1
Sessions 10.5
Christie 8.1
Webb 4.8
Fallin 4.5

Four years ago at about this time on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152060.msg3350891#msg3350891

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Eight years ago today on Intrade:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=78538.msg1622826#msg1622826

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Of course, that was July, and in both ’08 and ’12, the VP picks were named in August.  We’re now maybe a week out from Trump’s selection.  A week or so before Romney picked Ryan though, Ryan was only being given about a 5% chance of being picked:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=152060.msg3370997#msg3370997

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And here’s a week before Biden was picked in ’08:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=78538.msg1670025#msg1670025

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And a week before Palin was picked:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=78538.msg1679377#msg1679377

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Well, at least in all these cases, the actual pick was among the top 5 choices in betting markets a week before the selection, even if none of them were in the #1 slot.

[President Johnson]

Wow, Webb at nearly 5%. I think he'd make a better Veterans Secretary. If TRUMP wants a Democrat, he should pick General Flynn.

[Mr. Morden]

Pence now ahead of Gingrich to be Trump’s VP.  Meanwhile, Kaine is approaching 50 to be Clinton’s VP.

Winning Individual
Clinton 73.5
Trump 22.7
Sanders 1.5

Dem. VP
Kaine 49.8
Brown 20.4
Warren 14.9
Castro 14.5

GOP VP
Pence 25.4
Gingrich 23.6
Kasich 14.5
Christie 10.5
Flynn 7.7
Sessions 6.4
Cotton 4.2

[Mr. Morden]

Huge surge for Pence:

GOP VP

Pence 55.2
Gingrich 20.8
Christie 12.5
Kasich 10.9
Flynn 6.2

[Mr. Morden]

Huge surge for Pence:

GOP VP

Pence 55.2
Gingrich 20.8
Christie 12.5
Kasich 10.9
Flynn 6.2

Woah, does someone know something we don't?

See the VP thread:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=234526.msg5152758#msg5152758

[Mr. Morden]

Gingrich drops below 20:

GOP VP nominee

Pence 56.2
Gingrich 16.8
Christie 11.4
Kasich 10.0
Flynn 6.2

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Huge surge for Pence:

GOP VP

Pence 55.2
Gingrich 20.8
Christie 12.5
Kasich 10.9
Flynn 6.2

Words cannot describe how happy this makes me.  I may go up to Westfield tomorrow just to see Trump introduce him as running mate.  Good riddance, Pence.

[Mr. Morden]

Both VP frontrunners (Kaine and Pence) are pretty close to 50/50 now.

Winning Individual
Clinton 74.6
Trump 22.7
Sanders 1.1
Biden 0.5
Ryan 0.5
Bush 0.4

Dem. VP nominee
Kaine 46.3
Warren 18.6
Perez 14.9
Castro 13.1
Brown 10.5

GOP VP nominee
Pence 50.8
Gingrich 19.0
Christie 11.1
Sessions 8.1
Kasich 7.8

[Mr. Morden]

Pence drops below 50, and Gingrich has a big surge…

Pence 46.3
Gingrich 37.7
Christie 8.8
Sessions 6.5

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Pence drops below 50, and Gingrich has a big surge…

Pence 46.3
Gingrich 37.7
Christie 8.8
Sessions 6.5

A lot of people were expecting a VP announcement last night.  Turns out it was an "audition," as you were saying.

[Mr. Morden]

Pence back above 50…

Pence 56.2
Gingrich 33.9
Christie 14.5
Sessions 7.8

[Mr. Morden]

Pence over 60...

Pence 60.6
Gingrich 23.1
Christie 12.8

[Mr. Morden]

And now 80...

Pence 82.6
Gingrich 13.1
Christie 10.5

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

And now 80...

Pence 82.6
Gingrich 13.1
Christie 10.5

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/15/us/politics/mike-pence-donald-trump-vice-president.html?_r=0

[Mr. Morden]

Kaine remains the odds-on favorite for veep....while Vilsack surges into second place.

Winning Individual
Clinton 69.0
Trump 29.0
Sanders 0.9
Biden 0.4
Ryan 0.4
Johnson 0.2

Dem. VP nominee
Kaine 56.8
Vilsack 17.4
Warren 15.8
Hickenlooper  10.0
Castro 8.4

[Mr. Morden]

Kaine well over 80 now to be the VP nominee.

Winning Individual
Clinton 70.9
Trump 28.2
Sanders 0.6
Johnson 0.3

Dem presidential nominee
Clinton 99.0
Sanders 1.0

Dem VP nominee
Kaine 87.7
Vilsack 11.6
Perez 5.3
Warren 2.6

[Sir Mohamed]

Stunning, Kaine at 87% for the VP slot.

[dspNY]

Kaine well over 80 now to be the VP nominee.

Winning Individual
Clinton 70.9
Trump 28.2
Sanders 0.6
Johnson 0.3

Dem presidential nominee
Clinton 99.0
Sanders 1.0

Dem VP nominee
Kaine 87.7
Vilsack 11.6
Perez 5.3
Warren 2.6

Interesting that the bettors have Clinton at 70% after the convention and 69% before it

[dspNY]

Kaine well over 80 now to be the VP nominee.

Winning Individual
Clinton 70.9
Trump 28.2
Sanders 0.6
Johnson 0.3

Dem presidential nominee
Clinton 99.0
Sanders 1.0

Dem VP nominee
Kaine 87.7
Vilsack 11.6
Perez 5.3
Warren 2.6

Interesting that the bettors have Clinton at 70% after the convention and 69% before it

I would caution that this RNC is something on which elite opinion could really diverge from the general public's impression.  Think about the plagiarism issue.  There's probably ~25% of Americans for whom this is an absolute deal breaker but the other 75% who have never had exposure to professional/academic writing could probably care less.

Some of those 25% you're referring to are college educated Republicans

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

Kaine well over 80 now to be the VP nominee.

Winning Individual
Clinton 70.9
Trump 28.2
Sanders 0.6
Johnson 0.3

Dem presidential nominee
Clinton 99.0
Sanders 1.0

Dem VP nominee
Kaine 87.7
Vilsack 11.6
Perez 5.3
Warren 2.6

Interesting that the bettors have Clinton at 70% after the convention and 69% before it

I would caution that this RNC is something on which elite opinion could really diverge from the general public's impression.  Think about the plagiarism issue.  There's probably ~25% of Americans for whom this is an absolute deal breaker but the other 75% who have never had exposure to professional/academic writing could probably care less.

People might not be familiar with academic practice - but they know what ripping off what someone else has done and passing it off as your own looks like.