latest Betfair odds

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that Romney number suggests he'd bump up to 25 or 30 should he actually run.

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why has Thune dropped off the radar so dramatically as a national possibility?

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Romney became a bubble of sorts.  the establishment pick will be either Christie, Jeb, or Mitt as a last resort.  he doesn't run if he isn't confident that the other two back out, and they all might play hokey-pokey through midsummer while watching the clowns (Santorum, Paul, Cruz, Perry) implode.

Rubio's the wild card, if he could separate himself from the kooks early enough and start bringing in real money it could scare Mitt and Jeb out -- and Jeb doesn't appear to be drooling at the possibility.  we all know Mitt is, but he understands he'd be venturing into rare historical territory.
 
Christie doesn't appear to fear losing as much as he fears discomfort, and he probably likes the idea of being the Don of NJ for a few decades, (though a 2017 win is by no means assured should the NJ Dems dig up a decent candidate that can simultaneously get the blacks out in droves and cut into Christie's margins in the wealthy suburbs/exurbs).  now THAT would be a fun off-year race to watch.

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Christie doesn't appear to fear losing as much as he fears discomfort, and he probably likes the idea of being the Don of NJ for a few decades, (though a 2017 win is by no means assured should the NJ Dems dig up a decent candidate that can simultaneously get the blacks out in droves and cut into Christie's margins in the wealthy suburbs/exurbs).  now THAT would be a fun off-year race to watch.

Christie's term limited out of the governorship in 2017.

shucks, I didn't know that!  we in NY allow our Dons to reign until they're toppled ("may God allow me to accept this defeat, and to understand it" -Andrew Cuomo, November 8, 1994).

that little factoid ratchets up the odds quite significantly -- or he could roll the dice, hope for a Hillary win, and enter stage right as the heavy favorite for the GOP nom in 2020, red as a tomato from extended vacations bookending a book tour.

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Bush, Romney and Rubio are all overrated on this.

so go make some money!

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How high do you think Bush's price goes if he gets in the race?

today?  low to mid 30s

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short Rubio, IMO

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Rubio should be closer to 10 than 20 (imo)

no, I won't be putting my money where my mouth is

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I'd shave about half off of Rubio's number and give 7 pts each to Bush and Walker.  Biden and O'Malley also appear overvalued to me ("to you?"  "yes, to me.")