latest Betfair odds

[Mr. Morden]

Intrade may be gone, but we still have other election betting markets out there.  And you can find the odds for the 2016 election here:

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presidential-election-2016/republican-candidate

I'll highlight Betfair, since I believe it has the highest volume of the various elections markets.  To convert their odds to probabilities, take the reciprocal of the numbers listed on Oddschecker, and that gives you your probability.  While it's early enough that the volume is still low, there's been a little action in the last couple of days, because of the decline of Christie (who had been leading the GOP nomination market a few days ago).  Here's where we are now (in % probabilities):

Democratic nomination

Clinton 58.5
Biden 8.8
Warren 7.2
Cuomo 5.5

GOP nomination

Rubio 16.8
Bush 12.8
Christie 11.1
Paul 9.5
Walker 6.4
Cruz 6.0
Huckabee 4.0
Ryan 4.0

Winning Individual

Clinton 41.0
Rubio 8.8
Christie 7.2
Bush 6.8
Warren 5.3

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio 17.4
Bush 13.8
Christie 10.0
Paul 9.5
Walker 6.4
Cruz 5.7
Ryan 4.5
Huckabee 4.0

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 24.7
Palin 20.0
Pawlenty 11.0
Thune 9.8
Huckabee 8.9

[Mr. Morden]

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 24.7
Palin 20.0
Pawlenty 11.0
Thune 9.8
Huckabee 8.9

That's funny. Only two of them actually ran, and one dropped out early.

Yep, and if you want to flash forward a bit to May 2010, it looked like this:

Romney 22.5
Palin 20.0
Thune 15.0
Gingrich 10.0
Pawlenty 6.5
Jeb Bush 4.1
Huckabee 3.8
Daniels 3.5
Paul 3.5
Pence 2.5

10 candidates listed, and only 4 (Romney, Gingrich, Pawlenty, Paul) actually ended up running.  Which is why one should be cautious about claiming absolute foreknowledge of who's going to run.

OTOH, that doesn't mean that we should ignore all the hints the potential candidates are dropping about whether they'll run.  4 out of 10 is actually pretty good, given that the universe of potential candidates includes virtually every current or former governor or member of Congress from the party in question.  The potential candidates who drop hints suggesting they might run are demonstratively more likely to run than those who deny that they're interested, or show no signs of laying the groundwork.

[Mr. Morden]

Christie down to 4th:

Rubio 16.8
Bush 13.8
Paul 9.5
Christie 9.1
Walker 6.0
Cruz 5.5
Ryan 5.0

[Mr. Morden]

Christie back in 3rd place:

Rubio 17.4
Bush 13.8
Christie 10.5
Paul 9.5
Walker 6.2
Cruz 5.7
Huckabee 5.0
Ryan 4.8

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 25.0
Palin 23.5
Thune 9.6
Pawlenty 7.5
Huckabee 6.3
Daniels 5.9

[Mr. Morden]

Why only go with Betfair, when there are so many other bookmakers out there offering odds as well?

Because Betfair has the highest volume.  Some of the odds for the less prominent candidates from other bookmakers are based on transactions that were made months ago, and so are now essentially meaningless.  Actually, the volume on all of these 2016 bets is pretty low right now, even on Betfair, because it's so early, but I figured I'd list the numbers now for the historical record.

In any case, it looks like political betting was suspended on Betfair yesterday, and so they're no longer listed on Oddschecker, but hopefully it's a temporary thing, and they'll be back soon.

[Mr. Morden]

Pre-CPAC update: Betfair was down for a while, so I'll give the most recent odds from any betting site, which in most cases is Stan James, which has prices from March 6 in most cases.

Rubio 14.3
Paul 12.5
Christie 11.1
Ryan 11.1
Bush 10.0
Huckabee 7.7
Walker 6.5*
Cruz 5.5*

* All prices are from Stan James except Walker and Cruz, for whom the most recent prices are from Betfair.

[Mr. Morden]

OK, back to Betfair:

Rubio 16.8
Bush 14.9
Christie 11.1
Paul 11.1
Walker 6.4
Cruz 5.8
Ryan 5.0
Huckabee 4.8

Approx. four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 24.6
Palin 23.0
Thune 14.3
Pawlenty 9.9
Huckabee 6.0
Daniels 4.8

[Mr. Morden]

Dems

Clinton 65.8
Biden 7.5
Warren 6.5
Cuomo 4.5

GOP

Rubio 16.3
Bush 14.5
Paul 10.9
Christie 10.7
Walker 6.5
Cruz 5.8
Ryan 5.0
Huckabee 4.3

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 24.8
Palin 23.2
Thune 20.0
Pawlenty 10.0
Huckabee 7.9
Paul 4.4

[Mr. Morden]

Jeb-mentum as Bush takes the lead:

Bush 20.4
Rubio 16.3
Christie 10.9
Paul 10.9
Walker 6.8
Cruz 5.7
Ryan 5.0
Huckabee 4.8

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 26.8
Palin 23.9
Thune 16.1
Pawlenty 8.8
Huckabee 7.6
Gingrich 5.5

[Mr. Morden]

Dems

Clinton 65.8
Biden 7.2
Warren 6.5
Cuomo 4.0

GOP

Bush 20.0
Rubio 16.8
Paul 11.4
Christie 10.0
Walker 6.8
Cruz 5.7
Ryan 4.8
Huckabee 4.5

This time four years ago on Intrade:

Romney 24.7
Palin 22.4
Thune 16.5
Gingrich 7.9
Pawlenty 7.5
Paul 6.0

[Mr. Morden]

Bush 20.8
Rubio 15.8
Paul 11.4
Christie 10.0
Walker 6.4
Cruz 5.7
Ryan 5.0
Huckabee 4.5
Romney 2.9
Jindal 2.6

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 22.5
Palin 20.0
Thune 15.0
Gingrich 10.0
Pawlenty 6.5
Jeb Bush 4.1
Huckabee 3.8
Daniels 3.5
Paul 3.5
Pence 2.5

[Mr. Morden]

Bush 20.4
Rubio 16.3
Paul 11.6
Christie 11.4
Walker 6.8
Cruz 5.7
Ryan 5.0
Huckabee 4.5

Four years ago today, on Intrade:

Romney 23.2
Palin 20.0
Thune 13.6
Gingrich 8.0
Pawlenty 7.1
Jindal 5.0
Huckabee 4.7

[Mr. Morden]

Bush 19.0
Rubio 15.4
Paul 11.6
Christie 11.1
Walker 6.5
Cruz 6.2
Ryan 5.0
Huckabee 4.3

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 27.8
Palin 17.5
Thune 13.6
Gingrich 11.1
Pawlenty 7.3
Daniels 6.5
Huckabee 5.7
Paul 4.9

[Mr. Morden]

Bush 18.6
Rubio 16.3
Paul 11.6
Christie 11.1
Cruz 6.4
Walker 6.4
Ryan 5.0
Huckabee 4.3
Romney 3.3
Jindal 3.1

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 24.1
Palin 16.3
Thune 13.2
Gingrich 12.0
Pawlenty 10.6
Huckabee 4.7
Jeb Bush 4.3
Daniels 3.5
Paul 3.5
Jindal 2.2

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio has moved back up into a tie with Bush for first place:

Bush 16.8
Rubio 16.8
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.7
Walker 6.4
Cruz 6.2
Ryan 5.4
Huckabee 4.0

However, let's look at the bigger picture of how things have shifted so far this year.  Here were the numbers in February:

Rubio 16.8
Bush 12.8
Christie 11.1
Paul 9.5
Walker 6.4
Cruz 6.0
Huckabee 4.0
Ryan 4.0

Since then, Bush has been the biggest gainer (he went all the way above 20 at one point, but has now come somewhat back down to Earth), with Paul and Ryan also having gained on their positions from February.  None of the top contenders has seen a dropoff.  It's basically just "field" that has dropped since then.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush again alone in the lead:

Bush 16.8
Rubio 16.3
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.0
Cruz 6.2
Walker 6.0
Ryan 5.5
Huckabee 3.6

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney 30.0
Palin 20.0
Thune 12.5
Gingrich 10.9
Pawlenty 10.4
Daniels 8.5
Huckabee 6.9
Pence 5.0

In that case, only 3 of the people in the top 8 ended up running (Romney, Gingrich, Pawlenty).  They were 1st, 4th, and 5th respectively on Intrade.  If history were to repeat itself this time around, we'd see Bush, Christie, and Cruz run, but none of Rubio, Paul, Walker, Ryan, or Huckabee.

[Mr. Morden]

Bush is falling, which means Rubio is now in first place:

Rubio 16.3
Bush 14.1
Paul 11.4
Christie 10.0
Cruz 6.2

Meanwhile, on the Democratic side:

Clinton 65.8
Warren 9.1
Biden 6.8
Cuomo 4.0

[Mr. Morden]

Update (Pence isn't listed on Betfair, so I got his share price from Ladbrokes):

Dems

Clinton 67.6
Warren 9.1
Biden 6.8
Cuomo 4.0
Gillibrand 2.4
O'Malley 2.1
others under 2.0

GOP

Rubio 16.3
Bush 15.8
Paul 11.9
Christie 10.0
Cruz 6.2
Walker 5.8
Ryan 5.0
Romney 4.2
Huckabee 3.3
Jindal 3.1
Pence 2.4 (Ladbrokes)
Perry 2.3
others under 2.0

Roughly 4 years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 28.5
Palin 18.5
Thune 16.1
Pawlenty 10.5
Daniels 8.3
Gingrich 8.0
Huckabee 6.9
Jeb Bush 5.1
Pence 5.0
Paul 4.6
Jindal 3.9
Barbour 2.9
Christie 2.5
Perry 2.0
others under 2.0

Roughly 8 years ago at this time on Intrade:

About a month since we last posted the numbers, net change from 7/25 in ()

Democrats

Clinton 40.5 (-1.9)
Warner 18.5 (-0.5)
Gore 15.0 (+0.2)
Edwards 9.0 (0)
Feingold 3.6 (+1.3)
Kerry 3.3 (0)
Obama 2.2 (+0.2)
Bayh 2.2 (+ ~0.4)
Others under 2.0

Republicans

McCain 38.0 (-0.4)
Giuliani 16.0 (+1.5)
Romney 13.2 (+2.8 )
Allen 13.0 (-3.5)
Rice 5.9 (+0.9)
Gingrich 3.2 (+0.5)
Huckabee 2.2 (-0.4)
Others under 2.0

[Mr. Morden]

Perry's actually gone up from 2.3 to 2.6 since news of the indictment broke.

[Mr. Morden]

Update: Paul moves into a tie for second with Bush, as Bush continues to decline.  Romney moves up into a tie for 5th place(!), and Perry continues to gain ground, following the indictment.

Rubio 15.8
Bush 11.9
Paul 11.9
Christie 10.5
Cruz 6.4
Romney 6.4
Walker 5.4
Ryan 4.8
Huckabee 3.3
Jindal 3.1
Perry 2.9

[Mr. Morden]

Bush back in the lead and Romney surges:

Bush 16.8
Rubio 15.8
Paul 11.9
Christie 10.5
Romney 7.8
Cruz 6.4
Walker 5.4
Ryan 4.5
Huckabee 3.3

Roughly four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 27.9
Palin 18.8
Thune 18.0
Pawlenty 12.5
Gingrich 10.4
Barbour 7.9
Huckabee 6.1
Daniels 5.7
Paul 5.5

[Mr. Morden]

Rubio retakes the lead.  Romney still gaining, and Perry has gained some more post-indictment:

Rubio 16.8
Bush 14.5
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.5
Romney 9.1
Cruz 6.0
Walker 5.3
Perry 4.8
Ryan 4.5

[Mr. Morden]

Dems

Clinton 68.5
Warren 8.8
Biden 6.4
Cuomo 3.3
O'Malley 2.1

GOP

Rubio 16.8
Bush 13.4
Paul 11.6
Christie 10.5
Romney 8.8
Cruz 6.0
Walker 5.3
Perry 4.5
Ryan 4.5
Huckabee 3.3
Jindal 2.8

Four years ago at this time on Intrade:

Romney 29.0
Thune 18.5
Palin 17.1
Pawlenty 12.5
Daniels 10.0
Gingrich 9.5
Barbour 7.6
Huckabee 6.1
Paul 5.5
J. Bush 5.3
Jindal 5.0
Pence 4.7
Christie 4.0
Ryan 3.0
others below 2.0

Eight years ago at this time on Intrade:

Democrats

Clinton 39.4 (-1.1)
Warner 17.5 (-1.0)
Gore 17.2 (+2.2)
Edwards 9.1 (+.1)
Kerry 3.5 (+.2)
Bayh 3.0 (+.8 )
Feingold 2.7 (-0.9)
Others at or under 2.1

Republicans

McCain 40.0 (+2.0)
Giuliani 16.1 (+.1)
Romney 15.3 (+2.1 )
Allen 11.5 (-1.5)
Rice 5.1 (-.8 )
Gingrich 4.0 (+0.8 )
Others at or under 2.0

[Mr. Morden]

Perry now all the way up to a tie for 4th place:

Rubio 16.8
Bush 12.8
Paul 12.2
Christie 10.5
Perry 10.5
Romney 8.4
Cruz 5.8
Walker 5.0
Ryan 4.5
Huckabee 3.3

Four years ago today on Intrade:

Romney inches slightly farther ahead:

Romney 32.4
Palin 17.6
Thune 17.6
Pawlenty 12.8
Gingrich 9.5
Barbour 7.0
Daniels 7.0
Paul 6.2
Huckabee 6.1
J. Bush 5.9
Pence 5.0