VA State Senate Special Elections
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Author Topic: VA State Senate Special Elections  (Read 6864 times)
Skill and Chance
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« Reply #50 on: January 27, 2014, 08:37:20 PM »


True. While the HoD won't do anything about it, the Senate can use it to energize the base for 2015.

Speaking of then, I hope we take out Black.

They will likely need to beat either Black in SD-13 or Watkins in Richmond's SD-10 to keep the tie. They have an elderly member in a 67% Romney seat in coal country.  All of the other D-held districts are at least likely D and trending their way.

The House would require a year more democratic than 2013 to be interesting, but there are 13 seats where the Republican won with 55% or less last year.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #51 on: January 27, 2014, 08:40:38 PM »


True. While the HoD won't do anything about it, the Senate can use it to energize the base for 2015.

Speaking of then, I hope we take out Black.

T-Mac has said that it has to be in their budget in order for him to sign it. So I guess it's possible we could see a state government shutdown, which would be ironic.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #52 on: January 29, 2014, 12:59:02 AM »

If Democrats want to hold the chamber, having Northam run for reelection as LG rather than for Governor in 2017 would also be highly beneficial.  It's probably a fair reading of the senate map to say that a 20-20 tie is the expected outcome for most of the decade (R's trade the Richmond Obama district for the coal country Romney district).
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windjammer
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« Reply #53 on: January 29, 2014, 02:05:45 PM »

To be honest honest, except one who is a Romney district (by far), all democratic seats have been won by double digits. So they will have always 19 seats (except special election), the problem is to get 2 additional seats.
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windjammer
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« Reply #54 on: January 29, 2014, 02:07:04 PM »

If Democrats want to hold the chamber, having Northam run for reelection as LG rather than for Governor in 2017 would also be highly beneficial.  It's probably a fair reading of the senate map to say that a 20-20 tie is the expected outcome for most of the decade (R's trade the Richmond Obama district for the coal country Romney district).
The best candidate for governor would be of course Mark Warner. But if not, the Attorney General Mark Herring would be a good candidate!
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #55 on: January 29, 2014, 02:34:13 PM »

To be honest honest, except one who is a Romney district (by far), all democratic seats have been won by double digits. So they will have always 19 seats (except special election), the problem is to get 2 additional seats.

Well, they need to either hold 21 seats in 2019 or win governor in both 2017 and 2021 to avoid being gerrymandered into oblivion in congress again.  That's what this is really about, because R control in the HoD is locked in until at least 2021 barring a 60/40 Democratic year statewide.
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windjammer
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« Reply #56 on: January 30, 2014, 10:17:39 AM »
« Edited: January 30, 2014, 10:19:39 AM by MW Archduke windjammer »

Well, I guess the democratic state senator representing the heavily Romney district will be running.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #57 on: January 31, 2014, 11:01:32 PM »

Well, at the next redistricting, they'll have to roll another 2 Senate seats into NOVA and away from old Virginnie.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #58 on: February 01, 2014, 10:58:10 PM »

Virginia residents: who do you think is more likely to run in 2017 for Gov, Herring or Northam? And who is the GOP candidate after the 2013 sweep? A Congressman, perhaps?
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moderatevoter
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« Reply #59 on: February 01, 2014, 11:24:45 PM »

Virginia residents: who do you think is more likely to run in 2017 for Gov, Herring or Northam? And who is the GOP candidate after the 2013 sweep? A Congressman, perhaps?

I think both Herring and Northam will go for it, but I am starting to think the eventual nominee is more likely to be Herring. To be honest, I've also heard chatter that neither of them will be the nominee, and instead, it will end up being Justin Fairfax.

For the Republicans, a lot of people seemed to think it would be Obenshain, but now people are also talking about Gillespie making a run for it (and that the Senate run is mainly to establish some infrastructure and name recognition). I personally think that a Congressman (such as Rigell, whose name I've heard a lot in this discussion, and I've also heard Wittman) might jump in. Out of these four candidates, I would probably want Rigell.
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KingSweden
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« Reply #60 on: February 02, 2014, 12:26:30 PM »

Virginia residents: who do you think is more likely to run in 2017 for Gov, Herring or Northam? And who is the GOP candidate after the 2013 sweep? A Congressman, perhaps?

I think both Herring and Northam will go for it, but I am starting to think the eventual nominee is more likely to be Herring. To be honest, I've also heard chatter that neither of them will be the nominee, and instead, it will end up being Justin Fairfax.

For the Republicans, a lot of people seemed to think it would be Obenshain, but now people are also talking about Gillespie making a run for it (and that the Senate run is mainly to establish some infrastructure and name recognition). I personally think that a Congressman (such as Rigell, whose name I've heard a lot in this discussion, and I've also heard Wittman) might jump in. Out of these four candidates, I would probably want Rigell.

Interesting. I've been doing a lot of research on Virginia lately, I think it's a fascinating state that will only grow in importance and stature in the next decade. Odd that Fairfax, a US Attorney, would be so highly regarded over Herring, who to me seems like the future of the party. I think a Herring-Rigell matchup would be interesting - strong candidates from the state's most important metro regions.
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« Reply #61 on: February 03, 2014, 05:19:05 PM »

Rigell would be awesome, but it would be hard for him to get his party's approval unless there are some major changes to the party between now and then.
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IceSpear
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« Reply #62 on: February 03, 2014, 08:13:49 PM »

Yeah, isn't Rigell to the left of Bolling, who was exiled from the GOP?
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #63 on: February 03, 2014, 08:24:14 PM »

Rigell would be awesome, but it would be hard for him to get his party's approval unless there are some major changes to the party between now and then.


I suppose his path to victory would be "I'm the most electable candidate", but that hasn't worked in GOP primaries so far.

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shua
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« Reply #64 on: February 04, 2014, 02:17:25 PM »

Rigell would be awesome, but it would be hard for him to get his party's approval unless there are some major changes to the party between now and then.


I suppose his path to victory would be "I'm the most electable candidate", but that hasn't worked in GOP primaries so far.



It would help him somewhat to at least have a primary instead of a convention.
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SawxDem
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« Reply #65 on: February 25, 2014, 11:51:10 PM »

Democrats lose Lynwood Lewis's seat, 60-40. Rob Bloxom, Jr. (R) picks up HD-100.

Exactly what I was afraid was going to happen. I mean, from what I heard, Bloxom's a big name in this district and it went 2 points for Obenshain, but 60-40? That's just unacceptable.
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Frodo
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« Reply #66 on: February 25, 2014, 11:53:18 PM »

So Republicans now have a 21:19 majority in the chamber?  

Just so we're clear...   
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SawxDem
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« Reply #67 on: February 25, 2014, 11:57:26 PM »

So Republicans now have a 21:19 majority in the chamber?  

Just so we're clear...   

No. That was the special election for Lewis's old Delegates seat.
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SawxDem
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« Reply #68 on: February 26, 2014, 12:57:51 AM »

Mainly Democrats doing a horrible job holding the seat. I'd understand a smaller margin, but to lose a McAuliffe district 60-40 is, like I said, unacceptable.
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Frodo
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« Reply #69 on: February 26, 2014, 01:01:21 AM »
« Edited: February 26, 2014, 01:05:28 AM by Frodo »

So Republicans now have a 21:19 majority in the chamber?  

Just so we're clear...  

No. That was the special election for Lewis's old Delegates seat.

Thanx -given the thread title, I just assumed everything here concerned special elections to the Virginia Senate.    








Carry on. 
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publicunofficial
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« Reply #70 on: February 26, 2014, 01:24:12 AM »

The Democrats would dominate the state legislature if their turnout wasn't so pathetic. There's plenty of Republicans holding 60%+ Obama seats in NOVA.
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windjammer
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« Reply #71 on: February 26, 2014, 05:13:54 AM »

Well, one seat more, one seat less, it doesn't change anything about the house? Tongue
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #72 on: February 26, 2014, 03:50:47 PM »

The Democrats would dominate the state legislature if their turnout wasn't so pathetic. There's plenty of Republicans holding 60%+ Obama seats in NOVA.

If they won all of the Obama 2012 seats, it would be down to 52R/48D!  If they just won all of the McAuliffe 2013 seats, they would pick up 12 and it would be 56R/44D.  The problem goes beyond the R gerrymander, though.  There are a lot of "reverse Blue Dogs" in the VA suburbs.  Local Dems can lag far behind Obama numbers.  That McAuliffe did so well is a good sign, though.
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windjammer
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« Reply #73 on: February 26, 2014, 03:51:13 PM »

And Mcauliffe's mother has died...
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