The death of the rural Texas Democrat, as told by party primary participation
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  The death of the rural Texas Democrat, as told by party primary participation
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Author Topic: The death of the rural Texas Democrat, as told by party primary participation  (Read 5409 times)
Indy Texas
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« on: February 01, 2014, 08:03:31 PM »

Texas has no party registration, so the below maps use participation in party primary elections to infer party identification by comparing Republican primary turnout to Democratic primary turnout as a percentage of total primary turnout. Only off-year primaries are used, since presidential primary participation is impacted by how competitive the presidential races are and those races tend to attract more independent voters.

In 1994, nearly two thirds of primary voters opted to vote in the Democratic primary. Republican participation was strongest in the DFW Metroplex, the suburbs of major cities, the German Hill Country counties and the Panhandle. Note the large number of West Texas counties that didn't even hold a Republican primary.



Republican participation grew in 1998, dwarfing Democratic turnout, but most of this growth came from the suburbs. That year's general election marked the first time in history that Democrats did not win a single statewide office.



2002 was arguably the last gasp of relevance for the Texas Democratic Party. All of the excitement was on their side and hopes were high for that year's "Dream Team" - Tony Sanchez, John Sharp, and Ron Kirk - to win back some of the Republicans' recent gains. The 2002 elections were also the last time the Democrats won a majority of Texas's US House seats; but the Republicans captured the State House for the first time since Reconstruction, enabling them to force through a mid-decade redistricting to ensure a Republican majority in the state's congressional delegation.



By 2006, the Democrats' hold on rural Texas was beginning to atrophy. While South Texas continued to have many counties not even bother holding a Republican Primary, the Democrats' identification advantage among rural Anglos became increasingly confined to East Texas and the cotton counties of the High Plains.



2010 was the year the bottom truly fell out for the Democrats outside of the Hispanic southern part of the state. Heavy Republican participation in suburbs gave the GOP a turnout advantage even in large counties like Harris and Dallas. Democratic participation collapsed in rural counties and the number of counties where no Democratic primary took place increased to eight, from five in 2006. A handful of counties in East Texas and the High Plains continued to participate almost exclusively in the Democratic primary. Foard County is one of the notable holdouts in rural Texas - no Republican primary was held in 2010 and Bill White narrowly carried the county in November.

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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #1 on: February 01, 2014, 08:12:34 PM »

A case when figurative language is also descriptively quite accurate: one of the things at work here is the very real deaths of many elderly rural Democrats.
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Frodo
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« Reply #2 on: February 01, 2014, 08:27:30 PM »

A story that can be applied to virtually every state in the South. 
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Miles
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« Reply #3 on: February 01, 2014, 08:39:23 PM »

Thanks; I hate the result, but great analysis!

I was really disappointed that Cruz improved on Hutchison most of those yellow dog eastern counties in 2012.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #4 on: February 02, 2014, 07:08:33 AM »

What does it mean that there was "no Republican primary"? That there was no way for people in those counties to vote for e.g. Rick Perry in the primary? Surely not. Is it local offices?
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Miles
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« Reply #5 on: February 02, 2014, 07:20:11 AM »

What does it mean that there was "no Republican primary"? That there was no way for people in those counties to vote for e.g. Rick Perry in the primary? Surely not. Is it local offices?

jimrtex explains:

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Indy Texas
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« Reply #6 on: February 02, 2014, 10:33:09 AM »

What does it mean that there was "no Republican primary"? That there was no way for people in those counties to vote for e.g. Rick Perry in the primary? Surely not. Is it local offices?

jimrtex has a good explanation in Miles's link. But yes - basically, there is no way for people in the dark red counties with asterisks to have voted in the Republican Primary, for any office at any level, even if they wanted to, because the GOP had no county chair in those counties. (Though if you can't even manage to find someone willing to be the chair, which in a small county is a pretty nominal post with little actual obligation, there probably aren't many people who want to vote in that primary to begin with.) And conversely, the people in the dark blue counties with asterisks could not vote in the Democratic primary because the Democrats had no chairs in those counties.

This isn't a great system, particularly for rural counties that are so short on people. In 2012, there was some controversy over the Republican primaries in a couple of West Texas counties that are heavily Republican not taking place because the county chair unexpectedly moved out of the county and a replacement couldn't be found in time. In another county, the party chair moved away between the primary and the runoff, meaning citizens there got to vote in the primary but not the runoff.
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Nichlemn
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« Reply #7 on: February 02, 2014, 03:20:43 PM »

Interestingly, King County, which was the most Republican county in the entire country in 2008 and 2012, was Democratic until 2010 and didn't even hold a Republican primary in 1994.
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jimrtex
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« Reply #8 on: February 13, 2014, 12:43:36 AM »

What does it mean that there was "no Republican primary"? That there was no way for people in those counties to vote for e.g. Rick Perry in the primary? Surely not. Is it local offices?
Prior to adoption of the Australian ballot (government-printed ballots) at the end of the 19th Century, elections were by write-in.  In a very small community, you can just let every voter write the name of the person who they wish to be the local officials.  There would be a consensus on who the ablest persons in the community were.  But on a large scale, say for the legislature or congress, you would need a campaign to encourage people to write in particular names.  There were court decisions that ruled that "printing the name of a candidate" on the ballot, included mechanically printed ballots.  Parties began distributing printed ballots, which a voter might edit.  Newspapers might also print sample ballots, but they would reflect the editor's biases, leaving off candidates.

Parties would stuff the ballot box, by folding ballots within each other.  Or they might print a color on their ballot (this was part of the origin of associating colors with parties Colorados y Azules).  There might a free lunch for someone who accepted a party ballot, and voters might keep their ballot close to their vest, so that others would not know who they voted for.  Voting was normally conducted where all could watch the voter deposit their ballot in the ballot box.  A party might try to disrupt distribution of ballots by other parties, or print fake ballots (eg a ballot with Obama for president, but with Republicans for other offices, or perhaps leaving off an office or candidate or two.

The Australian ballot was intended to eliminate these problems.  But you then have to decide which candidates were on the ballot.  The political parties wanted to ward off challengers.  They couldn't disrupt distribution of opposition ballots, but they could require that candidates be nominated by parties, and then make it harder for other parties to qualify for the ballot.  Party bosses could then choose who was elected.

The party primary was intended to permit voters to choose the candidates.  It an odd combination of public and private, which might not even be considered constitutional if instituted today.   Political parties are private, and elections are public.  Combining the two entangles government and parties, which is not necessarily unwanted by the major parties since it lets them appear to be quasi-government agencies.

General elections in Texas for county, state, and federal offices are conducted by the counties, while cities and school districts conduct their own elections.  Historically, the state canvass was simply to totalize the votes from the 254 counties.  The role of the Secretary of State was simply to notify the county election officials of statewide candidates so that they could be placed on ballots prepared by the county clerk.

Party primaries follow the same pattern.  County and single-county district candidates file with the county chair (independent candidates file with county clerk), while statewide and multi-county district candidates file with the state chair (independent candidates file with the secretary of state).  For the primary, the state chair notifies the county chairs of the statewide candidates.  The county chairs conduct the election in their counties, send their vote tallies to state chair who totals the votes, and determines whether any runoffs will be needed and sends that information back to the county chairs in case there is a runoff.  The runoff primary is conducted only in areas with contested nominations.  If there are no statewide runoffs, then the runoff primary happens in only a few counties.  Sometimes, there will be a statewide runoff for a relatively minor office (Railroad Commission (RRC), ag commissioner, Supreme Court justice) and there will be massive consolidation of election precincts.  In 2008, the Democrats had a runoff for for RRC.   In Harris County, there were 9,000 voters, compared to over 400,000 in the primary (which included the presidential primary).

After the nominees are determined, the state chair informs the secretary of state, who sends that information to county clerks for the general election.

In the past, the secretary of state received party filings, but only in a custodial role (ie they put them in a filing cabinet).  This year under a new law passed in 2013, the state and county chairs sends the names of the candidates for nomination to the secretary of state who posts them on the SOS web site 2014 March Primary Election Candidate Filings by County.  See disclaimer.

After the SOS posts the information, the state chairs are supposed to inform the county chairs to get the list of their party's candidates from the SOS web site.

When elections used paper ballots, it was relatively simple for the parties to conduct a primary.  The ballots were likely printed by the same printer or newspaper that printed the general election ballots, and the precinct election clerks were likely the same persons.  When Texas was a one-party state, the Democratic primary was in effect a non-partisan election.  If you wanted to run for local office (or vote for local officials) it had to be in the Democratic primary.  In non-presidential years, the Democratic primary typically had 2 or 3 times the turnout of the general election.

The Republicans rarely conducted primaries.  When they did in 1926, they had 15,000 voters compared to 821,000 Democrats.  In 2010 and 2012, the Democratic primary had 680,000 and 590,000 voters.  The precinct conventions are conducted immediately after the polls close and votes are tallied on election night.  At one time, the primaries and conventions had to be in different buildings.  They can now be in the same building, if there is no way to communicate between the rooms, and they have separate entrances.

When the Democrats were trying to avoid letting Blacks vote in their primary, they emphasized the private nature of the primary.  The ban was first in statute; then a decision by the state executive committee, and then the state convention.  Finally, they attempted to hold a preliminary private (Jaybird) primary.   Repeatedly, the Supreme Court determined that the primary was part of the election, and that the 15th Amendment applied.

The parties originally had to fund their own primaries.  This led them to charge extremely high filing fees for offices where the filing fee was not set by statute.  It could be several times cheaper to run for statewide office rather than for a county office.  After the Supreme Court ruled against this practice, the State began funding primary elections.

As elections began switching to more elaborate voting apparatus, the parties would rent equipment from the counties.  In Bexar County in 2008, the treasurer of the Democratic Party embezzled the funds that the State had paid for the primary, rather than passing it along to Bexar County, so now the law provides that the parties be given vouchers, and the money can avoid sticky fingers in flowing from the state to the county.

Early voting is conducted by the counties.  Part of this is because it is complicated to keep polling places available for two weeks; and making sure voters don't vote multiple times.  Early voting was first implemented for general elections, and when they were trying to figure out a way to bring it to the primary, they determined it was easier to have the counties conduct that to.  When you early vote, you select a party, and are then directed to a machine for that party.

Texas does not have party registration, and there is no sort of loyalty oath associated with voting in a primary.  In any given election year, you are restricted to participating in only one party's nominating activities (the primary, the primary runoff, conventions, and signing petitions).  There are no other partisan elections, so the slate is in effect wiped clean.

And about 40% of counties have joint primaries, where the parties have agreed to have the counties conduct the primary on election day as well as for early voting.  Harris County does not have a joint primary.  For my precinct, the Democratic and Republican polling places are in the same building, but they cover different sets of election precincts.

But even early voting and joint primaries require a county chair to receive candidate filings, and to hand the candidate names to the county election officials.  And the party does the actual canvass, even if they are simply reading off a computer printout.  The county chairs are also required to report results on election night to the secretary of state, just like the county clerks do for a general election.

The Republican Party just announced that they had 254 county chairs, for only the second time in history We Did It – 254 Republican County Chairmen.  Interestingly, in McMullen County 3 incumbent officials are taking advantage of having a county chair to run for re-elections as Republicans.

In addition a law permits the county chair for a small county (fewer than 5000 persons) to live an adjacent small county (less than 5000).  The double requirement limits this somewhat, since not all small counties have a small neighbor.  But it at least gives a chance to organize a primary.  Other than conducting the primary, there is no public activity for the county to chair to actually perform.

Another new law permits the state party chair to contract with county election officials to conduct the primary for statewide offices in counties with no party chair.  I could not find any information on whether or not the Democratic Party intends to use this process or not.  They appear to have around 18 counties with no county chair.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #9 on: February 15, 2014, 02:53:06 PM »

Any ideas why the non-oil regions of West Texas held out longer than East Texas?  Based on longer persistence of Blue Dogs in LA and AR than in OK, I would have expected the opposite.
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