Costa Rica presidential elections (RULING PARTY CANDIDATE DROPS OUT OF RUN-OFF)

[Famous Mortimer]

Looks like everyone forgot about these too.

The two main candidates are the PLN (neo-liberal/"social democrat") candidate and a left-wing candidate from a new party Broad Front.

[Vosem]

Looks like everyone forgot about these too.

The two main candidates are the PLN (neo-liberal/"social democrat") candidate and a left-wing candidate from a new party Broad Front.

"Oscar Arias acolytes" also works as a descriptor for the PLN, which is a bit of a dominant party in Costa Rica right now (akin to the Liberal Party in Canada in the 1990s; the old "other" party, the Unidad Socialcristiana, basically fell apart in 2006 (the 1993 analogue) and multiple parties have been vying to replace them, including -- wait for it -- Libertarians!

My support is for Guevara, of course, but I don't really think he'll make it into the runoff; the polls consistently overestimated him last time, and he isn't making it into the runoff in polling this time (though Costa Rica doesn't really have the infrastructure for polling and polling is therefore not too accurate). He, Solis, and Villalta are all serious possibilities for getting into the runoff with Araya (who'd probably win against any of them tbh); the polls show Villalta, but I kind of doubt it'll be him. Solis may benefit from people confusing him with Otton Solis, who was the Citizens' Action candidate 2002-2006-2010. But really in countries like Costa Rica it can be difficult to tell until the results actually come in.

[Hash]

"Oscar Arias acolytes" also works as a descriptor for the PLN

No, actually, it doesn't (far from it). The PLN is an internally divided party which has been split by feuding factions (or clans) for the past 30 or so years. Oscar Arias is only one faction of the PLN, and one which hasn't been particularly strong. The current President, Chinchilla, was Arias' candidate in 2010 but he has since criticized her and she has therefore been left without a clear faction. The PLN's current candidate, Johnny Araya, is from the arayista faction, whose founder (Araya's uncle) was Luis Alberto Monge, Arias' predecessor in the 1980s and a sworn enemy of Arias. Arayismo is generally on the left of the party, notably in opposition to Arias' neoliberal policies (the arayistas opposed CAFTA). Johnny Araya ran and lost in the 2009 PLN primaries against Chinchilla, and although he himself backed her in the election, his brother (Rolando Araya Monge) ended up supporting the PAC candidate. Although he won this year's nomination unopposed it was because his advantage over his rivals (which included Arias' brother and former President José María Figueres Olsen, the son of the PLN's founding patriarch) was so massive that they dropped out rather than any partisan unity. Araya's campaign has tried to distance itself from the unpopular government, basically running on his record as mayor of San José and even (briefly) trying to drop the PLN's traditional green in favour of blue (associated with the moribund PUSC). Neither Arias or his brother are in the PLN's presidential campaign this year.

[Vosem]

"Oscar Arias acolytes" also works as a descriptor for the PLN

No, actually, it doesn't (far from it). The PLN is an internally divided party which has been split by feuding factions (or clans) for the past 30 or so years. Oscar Arias is only one faction of the PLN, and one which hasn't been particularly strong. The current President, Chinchilla, was Arias' candidate in 2010 but he has since criticized her and she has therefore been left without a clear faction. The PLN's current candidate, Johnny Araya, is from the arayista faction, whose founder (Araya's uncle) was Luis Alberto Monge, Arias' predecessor in the 1980s and a sworn enemy of Arias. Arayismo is generally on the left of the party, notably in opposition to Arias' neoliberal policies (the arayistas opposed CAFTA). Johnny Araya ran and lost in the 2009 PLN primaries against Chinchilla, and although he himself backed her in the election, his brother (Rolando Araya Monge) ended up supporting the PAC candidate. Although he won this year's nomination unopposed it was because his advantage over his rivals (which included Arias' brother and former President José María Figueres Olsen, the son of the PLN's founding patriarch) was so massive that they dropped out rather than any partisan unity. Araya's campaign has tried to distance itself from the unpopular government, basically running on his record as mayor of San José and even (briefly) trying to drop the PLN's traditional green in favour of blue (associated with the moribund PUSC). Neither Arias or his brother are in the PLN's presidential campaign this year.

I'm actually fascinated -- while I knew the party was quite internally divided in the past, I'd been under the impression that since the '06 election it was basically dominated by supporters of Arias. You learn something new every day

[ag]

So far, with 5186 out of 6506 precincts reporting, the results are

Solis (PAC) 504,511 votes, 30.81%
Araya (PLN) 485,226 votes, 29.63%
Villalta (FA) 281,329 votes, 17.18%
Guevara (ML) 183,690 votes, 11.22%
Pisa (PUSC) 98,477 votes, 6.01%
everybody else - peanuts

Solis is ahead in San Jose, Alajuela, Cartago and Heredia (Araya is in second place in all of these).
Araya is ahead in Guanacaste (where Solis is in third place after FA), Puntarenas and Limon (where Solis is in fourth place, after FA and ML)

[ag]

And, minutes later we have fresh results from the electoral tribunal

Insert Quote
So far, with 5326 out of 6505 precincts reporting, the results are

Solis (PAC) 519,922 votes, 30.87%
Araya (PLN) 498,981 votes, 29.63%
Villalta (FA) 289,090 votes, 17.17%
Guevara (ML) 188,519 votes, 11.19%
Pisa (PUSC) 101,042 votes, 6.00%
everybody else - peanuts

[Famous Mortimer]

Anyone find news of second round endorsements?

[Famous Mortimer]

Oh, a big one happened.

Former President Abel Pacheco of the conservative Christian Social Unity Party endorsed Citizens Action Party candidate Luis Guillermo Solís.

The social democratic/establishment neo-liberal National Liberation Party announced that they were close to getting the endorsement of third place Broad Front candidate José María Villalta but the broad front party denied that. However just the fact that they tried to claim that shows they are trying to position themselves to the left.

Previous to these events, everyone had been saying that the Citizens Action Party was to the left of the National Liberation Party. That appears to not be as clear now.

I was always suspicious of the PAC myself. They've never stated their ideology clearly beyond being anti-free trade.

[Famous Mortimer]

Araya dropped out.

Solis will be president.

[MaxQue]

Araya dropped out.

Solis will be president.

Very wierd.

[Zanas]

Yeah just heard that on the French (!!!) radio news. Why would he even do that ? They said it was because polling showed him consistently low, but that's not really a good excuse not to fight the democratic ballot, is that ?