FIFA 2014 World Cup - Official Discussion Thread

[King]

God yes, I couldn't stand ESPN coverage.

The perils of a Spanish fan who can't even get the gist of Univision.

[Arturo Belano]

God yes, I couldn't stand ESPN coverage.

>Not watching Univision instead with your family members

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If we upset Germany will Belgium consider tanking its match with South Korea to have a chance of facing us? (An Algerian win and a Belgian loss has Belgium facing the group G winner, any other combination has them facing the Group G runner-up.)

Similarly, will the Netherlands and Chlie be playing to lose in Group B if by some miracle Mexico beats Croatia by enough to take the top spot in Group A away from Brazil? (The odds of Brazil losing to Cameroon, that while mathematically possible the chance of Brazil being knocked out of the Round of 16 on Monday is pure fancy.)

While it is possible that something else happens,Colombia and Costa Rica both look to be a locks for first place their groups so while they will likely rest their best players on Tuesday or even give some of their lesser players a start, I don't see them intentionally trying to lose.

With France looking to be a lock in Group E for first place, will Argentina make a major push to ensure they beat or draw Nigeria and thus ensure they won't face France in the Round of 16.

Or will teams be more interested in seeking an easier quarterfinal game, so that they would play to potentially face the more difficult opponent in the opposite group in the Round of 16?

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Chile and the Netherlands play before Mexico and Croatia, so your point is moot.

[Middle-aged Europe]

hahaha omg: https://twitter.com/RickSantorum/status/480869481531445248

And they're rubbing it in his face.

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[Gustaf]

The only tactical move I can see that might make sense would be for Germany to try to get second place. Since group H is so weak first or second makes no difference, and the way this is shaping up I'd much rather be on that half of the final tree (Netherlands will choke and Argentina is overrated, while Brazil and Italy are always deadly once they advance and France is looking stronger and stronger).

Also, I think Portugal is kind of screwed. They're 5 goals behind the US on goal difference, that's a lot to make up. Ghana is in a much better position, provided they can beat Portugal. Which is a big if. Wouldn't be surprised to see Portugal-Ghana end in a tie.

[minionofmidas]

Germany will go out with the intention of ripping the opposition to shreds. End of story.

Germany will not play for a draw. They'll want to win the group without much heartbreak, and for that they need a lead going into the final minutes of the game.

[minionofmidas]

538 now has the U.S. probability of advancing to the knockout stage at 76%, up from 64% this morning.

Wtf? This is plain idiotic. Any serious metric is going to show 40ish, maybe 50ish. I mean, whatever their possibility that the US wins yesterday and thus goes through automatically, is out of the equation now.

And no, nobody is going to play for second place. It's plausible - but less than 50% likely - that somebody will play so bad that conspiracy theories that they did will surface, though.

Portugal are still screwed though. That late equalizer (super unlucky but deserved, all things considered. A draw was the justest result for that game.) really helped noone except Ghana. And some of us in the tipping competition.

[7,052,770]

538 now has the U.S. probability of advancing to the knockout stage at 76%, up from 64% this morning.

Wtf? This is plain idiotic. Any serious metric is going to show 40ish, maybe 50ish. I mean, whatever their possibility that the US wins yesterday and thus goes through automatically, is out of the equation now.

Here's the article: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/how-the-portugal-draw-boosts-the-u-s-s-world-cup-advancement-odds/

[Gass3268]

538 now has the U.S. probability of advancing to the knockout stage at 76%, up from 64% this morning.

Wtf? This is plain idiotic. Any serious metric is going to show 40ish, maybe 50ish. I mean, whatever their possibility that the US wins yesterday and thus goes through automatically, is out of the equation now.

And no, nobody is going to play for second place. It's plausible - but less than 50% likely - that somebody will play so bad that conspiracy theories that they did will surface, though.

Portugal are still screwed though. That late equalizer (super unlucky but deserved, all things considered. A draw was the justest result for that game.) really helped noone except Ghana. And some of us in the tipping competition.

About a 3/4ths chance does make sense.

14% chance of a win (Qualified)
22% chance of a draw (Qualified)
64% chance of a loss:
- 39% chance of a Portugal win (Qualified unless the US loses a +5 GD against Ghana)
- 29% chance of a Portugal-Ghana draw (Qualified)
- 32% chance of a Ghana win (Probably don't quality, would depend on GD, would have to hope for a 1 goal loss against Germany and a 1 goal Ghana win, US would qualify on scoring the most goals)

64%*32% = 20% of the US not qualifying (closer to 25% than 50-60%)

Now you could argue about the %'s of each thing happening, but I don't think his number is that off. The US has a lot of options to get in.

Also I had 2-1 US, so I was not happy with that goal

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Chile and the Netherlands play before Mexico and Croatia, so your point is moot.

I coulda sworn the schedule I looked at had Group A playing its games before Group B today, but I see you're right.

[minionofmidas]

538 now has the U.S. probability of advancing to the knockout stage at 76%, up from 64% this morning.

Wtf? This is plain idiotic. Any serious metric is going to show 40ish, maybe 50ish. I mean, whatever their possibility that the US wins yesterday and thus goes through automatically, is out of the equation now.

And no, nobody is going to play for second place. It's plausible - but less than 50% likely - that somebody will play so bad that conspiracy theories that they did will surface, though.

Portugal are still screwed though. That late equalizer (super unlucky but deserved, all things considered. A draw was the justest result for that game.) really helped noone except Ghana. And some of us in the tipping competition.

About a 3/4ths chance does make sense.

14% chance of a win (Qualified)
22% chance of a draw (Qualified)
64% chance of a loss:
- 39% chance of a Portugal win (Qualified unless the US loses a +5 GD against Ghana)
- 29% chance of a Portugal-Ghana draw (Qualified)
- 32% chance of a Ghana win (Probably don't quality, would depend on GD, would have to hope for a 1 goal loss against Germany and a 1 goal Ghana win, US would qualify on scoring the most goals)

64%*32% = 20% of the US not qualifying (closer to 25% than 50-60%)

Now you could argue about the %'s of each thing happening, but I don't think his number is that off. The US has a lot of options to get in.

Also I had 2-1 US, so I was not happy with that goal

What boggles the mind is the US' chances increasing with this draw. Remember that the earlier 64% figure already takes the Germany-Ghana game into account. Unless the model never believed in a US win against Portugal, this is pretty much mathematically impossible. (This actually makes sense, sort of: Any model based on past performance in all play or all competitive play is going to overestimate Portugal's chances of getting points after that 4-0 vis-a-vis conventional wisdom. Which knows very well that qualification results are not a good predictor of world cup performance, and that teams don't tend to successfully get back up from a 0-4. Conventional wisdom is also going to overestimate Ghana vis-a-vis models, since Ghana has shone at the last two world cups, with much the same core players, and really been rather sh!te otherwise.
But there's another thing going on here as well: The model's changing the possibilities of different outcomes, and is not applying the new percentages retroactively.)

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

This is the Spain we should have seen two games ago.

[Tender Branson]

This is the Spain we should have seen two games ago.

Too little, too late.

Get over it ...

[GMantis]

Mexico seems to have really bad luck with referees this World Cup. First the two denied goals against Cameroon and now they were denied a clear penalty against Croatia.

[Velasco]

This is the Spain we should have seen two games ago.

Too little, too late.

Get over it ...

Yes, life goes on. Anyway, I like that loyalty to the red colour. I'm rooting for Colombia and Costa Rica. Go Ticos!

[minionofmidas]

Quite the nonpretty game.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Two dirty teams in a slugfest. Hope the winner of this gets wiped out by I assume Colombia.

[minionofmidas]

This was a rather harsh red card. Which is something the tournament had so far avoided.

[Keystone Phil]

The refs decided who they want.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

The refs decided who they want.

lel

[Keystone Phil]

Suarez bites. Again. Unreal.

[Keystone Phil]

An absolute disgrace.

[Tender Branson]

Sry Phil ...

I think it's ova.

[Cobbler]

Suarez is such a disgusting player.