FIFA 2014 World Cup - Official Discussion Thread

[Јas]

Looks set to be Asia's worst tournament in quite some time, unless the South Koreans can win tomorrow.

So far:  P11 W0 D3 L8

[Јas]

Looks set to be Asia's worst tournament in quite some time, unless the South Koreans can win tomorrow.

So far:  P11 W0 D3 L8

Europe's record isn't exactly shiny either.

True. But it's not dissimilar to how the 2010 group stage went, so far. (With the proviso that the 6 remaining European group games could tilt the stats either way.)

Shame about the Ivorians, but 60% of Africa progressing is still an option.

Fingers crossed.

[Јas]

So does either of these teams have an English-like reputation for shootouts?

Well, technically Chile have never won one.
But this was only their second.


The last eight World Cup shoot outs have been won by the team going first.

[Јas]

So does either of these teams have an English-like reputation for shootouts?

Well, technically Chile have never won one.
But this was only their second.


The last eight World Cup shoot outs have been won by the team going first.

FTR, the Brazilians have won 8 of 12 penalty shoot-outs.

[Јas]

Anyone aware of any precedents for this type of pre-penalty goalkeeper substitution?

[Јas]

The last 9 World Cup shoot outs have been won by the team shooting first.

[Јas]

When did Tim Krul become a PK specialist?
His Premier League record is saved 2 of 20.

[Јas]

The last 9 World Cup shoot outs have been won by the team shooting first.

Every rule has eventually an exception eventually...

Indeed.
That record went back 12 years - to 2002, when we lost to Spain.

[Јas]

Germany - better than sechs.

[Јas]

No need for the hate on Cape Verde hugh - they're a perfectly decent footballing side who were one of the most watchable teams at last year's Cup of Nations, and were unfortunate not to go further in their World Cup qualification. Their only real competitive losses in the last 2 years have been to Ghana and Cameroon.

[Јas]

Costa Rica was moved up 12 ranks (and surpassed Mexico), for obvious reasons I think.

England fell 10 ranks and is now significantly behind the US *lol*

The US has performed more strongly than England recently. Seems reasonable.

Agreed. Away from Wembley, England have been having a pretty tough time for a while now.

The persistent idea that the Americans are some sort of joke side hasn't been true for a long time. (The rankings will always struggle to accurately place them though given that it's almost only at World Cups that they can be seriously judged.)

[Јas]

FIFA rankings are generally worse than ELO rankings, as I recall.

Agreed

Also, some of the hate comes from the fact that FIFA used to be really, really horrible. I think the classic example is Honduras being ranked number 1 about a decade ago.

Honduras's highest ever FIFA ranking was 20 (Sept 2001).

The list of #1 ranked sides is limited to Germany, Brazil, Italy, France, Argentina, Spain, and the Netherlands.

[Јas]

Were I to set the criteria for confederation allocations, I'd probably do something like:
a base of 1 slot per confederation (6 slots);
1 slot for each confederation team that finished in the top 3 of the previous WC Group Stage (24);
1 additional slot for the confederation of the defending champion (1);
plus the host (1)


If rearranging confederations was on the table, I'd want to merge CONCACAF and CONMEBOL.

[Јas]

There isn't really an argument to claim that UEFA is underrepresented at the world cup now. Anyway, in all likelihood they will have 14 teams next time.

For want of an argument...

i. The ELO rankings place 19 UEFA sides within the top 32 in the world.
(with 6 CONMEBOL, 3 CONCACAF, 2 CAF, and 1 AFC)

ii. A reasonable determination of the sides that are presumably least deserving of their spots might be those that come bottom of their groups. In this WC, only 1 UEFA side (England) came bottom. (4 were Asian, 2 African, 1 North American.)

iii. You noted UEFA's group stage record as 45%. But only CONMEBOL did better (72%). (Asia 0%, Africa 20%, North America 36%)


I think that the case for greater CONMEBOL representation is not unreasonable (presuming one wants a tournament of the best teams). But based on this data, it's the AFC and CAF that would be called on first to yield space.

It seems to me that UEFA's number of places is about right (but in the binary, more likely slightly under-, rather than over-represented).