I'm hoping the French get knocked out in the (easiest) group round for the lulz, along with one of Italy (please) or England (good enough).
Group A should be quite interesting. Brazil are obviously the strongest team here, but none of the other three are in any way walkovers. Mexico and Cameroon are not what they can be at their best, but are still good teams.
1. Brazil
2. Croatia
3. Cameroon
4. Mexico
Group B... well, I *do* think the Aussie team this year is better than in 2010, but our group is harder than even that bastard of a group (Germany, Ghana, Serbia) considering we've managed to land the two finalists from last time around. Chile is about on par with us, when both teams are playing their best. The home continent advantage might exist, dunno yet, and I also don't know if it's necessarily all that big a deal with two southern hemisphere teams. But the truth is, there's almost no way that Spain and the Netherlands aren't escaping the group, and if one of them does miss out, it's more likely to be to Chile's benefit.
1. Netherlands
2. Spain
3. Chile
4. Australia
Group C is kind of star-less - none of these four is going to win the cup, that's pretty clear - and I'd've happily swapped the Netherlands with any of them. All four could definitely make it through the group though, so it will still be an interesting one to watch. I will admit to hoping the Greeks don't progress, for two reasons: 1. I want the Euro-boosters to be denied the opportunity to say that they filled as many of the f16 spots as was possible; 2. The Greek-Australians will be absolutely unbearable. I have a lot of trouble with ranking this group, because Cote d'Ivoire on the right day is the best group of players here, but they're not necessarily a well-blooded team. The Japanese are consistent at a level more or less equal with the Greeks, and I have no idea where Colombia sits really, but I suspect they are the strongest of the four overall, and I do know that they have a few years to looks forward to soccer-wise, that might start with a strong showing in Brazil. All four could be in any spot, but...
1. Colombia
2. Japan
3. Greece
4. Cote d'Ivoire
Group D is basically the biggest opportunity for Australians to feel some joy in this world cup, even if it's more schadenfreude. If Italy and England both get knocked out, it's delicious. Obviously though, Costa Rica isn't going anywhere, so I'll just have to be happy with Uruguay getting over the top of one of them. As much as I can't stand Suarez, the Uruguayan team is easily the best to watch, and I also tend to think that they're the best of the three, with local conditions certainly not hurting them. Italy is just horrific, obviously, in every way. But the Poms aren't at nearly as high a level as they like to think they are. I'm tipping England into second out of spite, more than expectation, but I will pretend this is based on Phil's often repeated line that Italy are always slow to warm up.
1. Uruguay
2. England
3. Italy
4. Costa Rica
Group E is a massive snooze for me, tbh. France getting knocked out is a genuine possibility, although not likely. Switzerland is probably better than Ecuador by more than enough to get through, and Honduras is a rung below Ecuador. I actually think the Swiss have a pretty good shot at topping the group, but logically it has to be...
1. France
2. Switzerland
3. Ecuador
4. Honduras
Group F is a great group. The Argentinians are the strongest here, but certainly not certain. They need to work in all the matches, but should still top the group. The other three could all fill the second spot, although Iran's chances are perhaps the weakest. Nigeria aren't as tested as the B-H team, but have more raw skill, which is a pretty common theme for the African teams. If they've got themselves together, they have to be the favourite to go second, or even push Argentina into that spot. But Bosnia-Herzegovina isn't to be discounted at all, and Iran isn't a complete walkover itself.
1. Argentina
2. Nigeria
3. Bosnia-Herzegovina
4. Iran
Group G is kind of the group of death, except for the group that has the two finalists from 2010, another team in the world's top 16, and us. All four teams are good, and all four could make it through. Germany is, as always, an incredibly strong team and has to be favourite to top the group, but it's far from gauranteed with the other three teams. Portugal aren't as good as they have been, but are certainly still a very, very dangerous side. The USA is a lot better than people want to accept they are, and deserve to be a regular feature of the f16 in World Cups, but I suspect they might end up harshly in the bottom of the group here. Of course, there's no reason to say they couldn't top it. All games will be hard for all teams, and the Ghanaians rise to the challenge better than almost any nation in the world. They could lose every game, but they could win them all too, and sneak above Portugal in my estimations, largely because I want to see CRonaldo get abused in the media. I suspect this might be the group that I differ with the general consensus on the most, but I'm happy enough to say these are my ratings, in a group that's very hard to rate.
1. Germany
2. Ghana
3. Portugal
4. USA
Group H... borrrrringggggg. Kind of wish we'd been popped in here instead of South Korea, cos we could have escaped the group. Algeria are the clear bottom dwellers here, the other three all roughly even. None will win the world cup, or even their round of 16 games, so it doesn't really matter which order I put them in, I guess. Belgium is probably number 1, Russia and South Korea are dead even in my eyes, and not far below the Belgians anyway. I'm going with Russia as number two but without any particular reason other than maybe a bit of extra drive with 2018 on the horizon? Not a particularly good reason at all, but it'll do for separating the two.
1. Belgium
2. Russia
3. South Korea
4. Algeria
Group of 16:
Brazil over Spain (Brazil at home aren't unbeatable, but even against the Spaniards have to be my favourite to win)
Netherlands over Croatia (Croatia is a good side that's overrated, the Dutch are a great side that's underrated)
England over Colombia (50/50 on this one. I need to look more into Colombia tbh)
Uruguay over Japan (Vamo' Celeste!)
Nigeria over France (probs not but I want it to happen
)
Argentina over Switzerland (the Swiss are a good team, Argentina is better)
Germany over Russia (it's Germany, after all)
Ghana over Belgium (or Portugal, or the USA. Belgium is far from a slouch, but the survivors of Group G are going to be bloodthirsty, whoever they are)
QFs
Brazil over England (hard to see the Poms getting past Brazil, if they even make it this far)
Netherlands over Uruguay (Such a horrible choice to have to make - I'd love both to make the semis - but despite the location, and despite the ranking, I still think at the end of the day that the Netherlands is the better side, ever so slightly)
Germany over Nigeria (it's Germany, after all)
Argentina over Ghana (Ghana has used up all the luck/bias I'm able to give them
)
SFs
Brazil over Germany (it's Brazil, after all)
Netherlands over Argentina (I changed this three times over the course of writing it out. Argentina should probably win, but... the Dutch are going to be spectacular this year, I feel it in my waters
Argentina might grab the 3rd place off Germany though.)
Final
Brazil over the Netherlands (tragically)
