Sabato: The 6 most overrated races of 2014

[Miles]

Article.

KY-Sen
TX-Gov
NY-Gov
VA-Sen
WI-Gov
OH-Gov

[Napoleon]

Agree...except OH could always get interesting.

[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

I would say that VA-Sen is far and away the most overrated. The Beltway press is literally sh**tting themselves over the Gillespie candidacy, saying he's the "Republican McAuliffe", despite the fact that McAuliffe's opponent was an unpopular, controversial non-incumbent, while Gillespie's is a popular moderate incumbent.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Agreed for the most part except I have to ask who in the world are these people who think that NY-Gov and VA-Sen will be 'interesting'?

[RogueBeaver]

No idea about NY-Gov but VA-Sen is all Beltway Village nonsense. Hell, even Jennifer Rubin, mouthpiece of NOVA moderate Pubs, isn't hyped on VA-Sen.

[publicunofficial]

KY-Sen is probably underrated, especially by Sabato


TX-Gov is overrated, no qualms there.


No one is talking about NY-Gov, so I don't know what Sabato is talking about here.


I'm pretty sure Sabato was one of the people hyping up Ed Gillespie in VA-Sen in the first place.


No one is really excited about WI-Gov


OH-Gov has always been "Dems could win, but won't"

[ElectionsGuy]

Thank you Sabato. I have been wondering why the media is freaking out about these races that won't even be competitive or newsworthy, I'm glad he did an article about it.

[TJ in Oregon]

Thank you Sabato. I have been wondering why the media is freaking out about these races that won't even be competitive or newsworthy, I'm glad he did an article about it.

The media is doing it for readership and ratings of course. There's a whole lot bigger market for stories about how close all these races are going to be than to ignore them unless shown they should do otherwise.

[smoltchanov]

Article.

KY-Sen
TX-Gov
NY-Gov
VA-Sen
WI-Gov
OH-Gov

Agree with all 6. My prediction: 5R, 1D. All incumbents are likely to win, plus Republicans will hold TX-Gov.

[ElectionsGuy]

Article.

KY-Sen
TX-Gov
NY-Gov
VA-Sen
WI-Gov
OH-Gov

Agree with all 6. My prediction: 5R, 1D. All incumbents are likely to win, plus Republicans will hold TX-Gov.

You mean, 4R, 2D, right?

Thank you Sabato. I have been wondering why the media is freaking out about these races that won't even be competitive or newsworthy, I'm glad he did an article about it.

The media is doing it for readership and ratings of course. There's a whole lot bigger market for stories about how close all these races are going to be than to ignore them unless shown they should do otherwise.

Yep.

[Adam Griffin]

Glad to see that GA didn't make this list.

[smoltchanov]

Article.

KY-Sen
TX-Gov
NY-Gov
VA-Sen
WI-Gov
OH-Gov

Agree with all 6. My prediction: 5R, 1D. All incumbents are likely to win, plus Republicans will hold TX-Gov.

You mean, 4R, 2D, right?

Right. Rare (for me, with my Ph.D degree in pure mathematics) arithmetic error)))

[IceSpear]

If he thinks VA-Sen is overrated, then why did he move it to likely D? It's obviously safe D.

The idea that Warner and McConnell are equally as vulnerable is laughable. One is popular, one has a toxic approval rating.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The idea that Warner and McConnell are equally as vulnerable is laughable. One is popular, one has a toxic approval rating.
[/quote]

In an environment in which the incumbant party may lose seats, 3 incumbents generally loses. The Dems have enough of a firewall in Mnt and AK to keep senate as well as protecting Landrieu, should we lose Shaheen, Warner, MI or Udall. But, those would be upsets.

[NewYorkExpress]

I'd add Hawaii-Senate to that list...

[nolesfan2011]

KY-Sen is probably underrated, especially by Sabato


TX-Gov is overrated, no qualms there.


No one is talking about NY-Gov, so I don't know what Sabato is talking about here.


I'm pretty sure Sabato was one of the people hyping up Ed Gillespie in VA-Sen in the first place.


No one is really excited about WI-Gov


OH-Gov has always been "Dems could win, but won't"

This, though the Davis fundraising stats makes TX-GOV at least a little interesting. The NY GOV talk is because of Trump possibly running I think.

[CatoMinor]

Wait, was there any (non crazy) person ever seriously talking about the VA senate race as anything other than solid D?

[Maxwell]

I'd add Hawaii-Senate to that list...

Why? The primary will be a bloodbath. The general, yes, nobody cares about, but nobody is talking about the general.

[LeBron]

OH-Gov is overrated? If anything it's underrated for a race that barely gets any coverage. Without Christie, John Kasich is the direct right-hand man of Christie which could set him up for 2016, yet he barely leads his formidable Democratic opponent in his re-election fight with Kasich's approval rating notably going down in our state. Just from reading the article, his only defense is that no Republican incumbent has been defeated for re-election since the Eisenhower years and mentioning nothing else beyond that. On the other hand, Sabato fails to mention how FitzGerald is using the VA 2013 strategy to attack his GOP opponent on women's health, the Ohio economy is stalled, and voter suppression and right-to-work is making it's way into the state which is going to give FitzGerald a substantial advantage. Kasich might have the money advantage, but he's got nothing else going in his favor and lost a lot of support from conservatives who will vote for Earl because of Medicaid expansion. Rothenberg has this race as a tossup while Sabato has it as likely R, so it's obvious who's correct with their prediction.

Calling WI-Gov overrated I can kind of agree on though. Walker is talked about a lot more than Kasich (primarily because Walker is considered the more likely 2016 forerunner), yet Burke's campaign is starting off a lot worse than FitzGerald's currently is with a win over Kasich much more likely at this point than a win over Walker.

TX-Gov, NY-Gov, and VA-Sen I agree with. Everything is going well for Democrats in Texas (Davis outraising Abbott, Abbott and Republicans making several gaffes about Davis etc.), but this seat won't be seriously contested until at least 2022 (if Abbott retires then). NY-Gov, even if Trump spent all of the money he had, Cuomo would still blow him over in a De Blasio landslide. And VA-Sen, the definition of overrated. Gillespie can't win unless we somehow get another 2010.

KY-Sen though I also have to disagree with. There's a reason it's hyped so much by Democrats and that's because we want to see the Republican Minority Leader fall like they did to Daschle and with the two candidates now tied, it's still in McConnell's advantage, but he can't afford anything bad happening in Congress again. He'll be weak following the primary, so I don't blame the media for covering this so much given what's at stake and how close Grimes is to winning here.

[IceSpear]

Wait, was there any (non crazy) person ever seriously talking about the VA senate race as anything other than solid D?

The entire beltway media.

[I Will Not Be Wrong]

Agreed on all of them.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

OH-Gov is overrated? If anything it's underrated for a race that barely gets any coverage. Without Christie, John Kasich is the direct right-hand man of Christie which could set him up for 2016, yet he barely leads his formidable Democratic opponent in his re-election fight with Kasich's approval rating notably going down in our state. Just from reading the article, his only defense is that no Republican incumbent has been defeated for re-election since the Eisenhower years and mentioning nothing else beyond that. On the other hand, Sabato fails to mention how FitzGerald is using the VA 2013 strategy to attack his GOP opponent on women's health, the Ohio economy is stalled, and voter suppression and right-to-work is making it's way into the state which is going to give FitzGerald a substantial advantage. Kasich might have the money advantage, but he's got nothing else going in his favor and lost a lot of support from conservatives who will vote for Earl because of Medicaid expansion. Rothenberg has this race as a tossup while Sabato has it as likely R, so it's obvious who's correct with their prediction.

Calling WI-Gov overrated I can kind of agree on though. Walker is talked about a lot more than Kasich (primarily because Walker is considered the more likely 2016 forerunner), yet Burke's campaign is starting off a lot worse than FitzGerald's currently is with a win over Kasich much more likely at this point than a win over Walker.

TX-Gov, NY-Gov, and VA-Sen I agree with. Everything is going well for Democrats in Texas (Davis outraising Abbott, Abbott and Republicans making several gaffes about Davis etc.), but this seat won't be seriously contested until at least 2022 (if Abbott retires then). NY-Gov, even if Trump spent all of the money he had, Cuomo would still blow him over in a De Blasio landslide. And VA-Sen, the definition of overrated. Gillespie can't win unless we somehow get another 2010.

KY-Sen though I also have to disagree with. There's a reason it's hyped so much by Democrats and that's because we want to see the Republican Minority Leader fall like they did to Daschle and with the two candidates now tied, it's still in McConnell's advantage, but he can't afford anything bad happening in Congress again. He'll be weak following the primary, so I don't blame the media for covering this so much given what's at stake and how close Grimes is to winning here.

Look I want Fitzgerald to win too, but barring some massive unforeseeable event, it ain't happening  Especially after he blew the LG selection process.  Also in what way has Fitzgerald's campaign gotten off to a better start than Burke's?  That said WI-Gov is overhyped (I don't know that OH-Gov is that hyped at this point).

[njwes]

Though the Davis fundraising stats makes TX-GOV at least a little interesting.

I would love to see the in-state out-of-state fundraising breakdown. In fact I'll go look for it now and chuckle.

As someone whose social circle is full of moderate Dems, I'm always mystified that the Leftist/Jezebel/Gawker/NYTimes set seems to think she has some sort of magic populist appeal.

Note: I'm aware that northern New Jersey moderate Dems aren't necessarily representative of Texas moderate Dems

Agreed for the most part except I have to ask who in the world are these people who think that NY-Gov and VA-Sen will be 'interesting'?

People like us


Also, there seems to be an unfortunate partisan factor on the Atlas: races tend to be more interesting if it's "their" candidate looking to pull an upset

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

OH-Gov is overrated? If anything it's underrated for a race that barely gets any coverage. Without Christie, John Kasich is the direct right-hand man of Christie which could set him up for 2016, yet he barely leads his formidable Democratic opponent in his re-election fight with Kasich's approval rating notably going down in our state. Just from reading the article, his only defense is that no Republican incumbent has been defeated for re-election since the Eisenhower years and mentioning nothing else beyond that. On the other hand, Sabato fails to mention how FitzGerald is using the VA 2013 strategy to attack his GOP opponent on women's health, the Ohio economy is stalled, and voter suppression and right-to-work is making it's way into the state which is going to give FitzGerald a substantial advantage. Kasich might have the money advantage, but he's got nothing else going in his favor and lost a lot of support from conservatives who will vote for Earl because of Medicaid expansion. Rothenberg has this race as a tossup while Sabato has it as likely R, so it's obvious who's correct with their prediction.

Calling WI-Gov overrated I can kind of agree on though. Walker is talked about a lot more than Kasich (primarily because Walker is considered the more likely 2016 forerunner), yet Burke's campaign is starting off a lot worse than FitzGerald's currently is with a win over Kasich much more likely at this point than a win

The only race aside from IL, that the Dems can win, which the polls are understating is Mark Schauer's chances in MI due to Gary Peter coattails. The Land probe into PaC funds is just beginning.

[hopper]

The only thing that makes TX Governor's Race noteworthy is Davis with her filibuster and messing up her resume.

Ohio's Governor's Race-That's not overrated Kasich's approval ratings have been mediocre his whole term. The people that were undecided approvals wise about before him have turned negative in their approvals of him.