Sabato: The 6 most overrated races of 2014

[LeBron]

OH-Gov is overrated? If anything it's underrated for a race that barely gets any coverage. Without Christie, John Kasich is the direct right-hand man of Christie which could set him up for 2016, yet he barely leads his formidable Democratic opponent in his re-election fight with Kasich's approval rating notably going down in our state. Just from reading the article, his only defense is that no Republican incumbent has been defeated for re-election since the Eisenhower years and mentioning nothing else beyond that. On the other hand, Sabato fails to mention how FitzGerald is using the VA 2013 strategy to attack his GOP opponent on women's health, the Ohio economy is stalled, and voter suppression and right-to-work is making it's way into the state which is going to give FitzGerald a substantial advantage. Kasich might have the money advantage, but he's got nothing else going in his favor and lost a lot of support from conservatives who will vote for Earl because of Medicaid expansion. Rothenberg has this race as a tossup while Sabato has it as likely R, so it's obvious who's correct with their prediction.

Calling WI-Gov overrated I can kind of agree on though. Walker is talked about a lot more than Kasich (primarily because Walker is considered the more likely 2016 forerunner), yet Burke's campaign is starting off a lot worse than FitzGerald's currently is with a win over Kasich much more likely at this point than a win over Walker.

TX-Gov, NY-Gov, and VA-Sen I agree with. Everything is going well for Democrats in Texas (Davis outraising Abbott, Abbott and Republicans making several gaffes about Davis etc.), but this seat won't be seriously contested until at least 2022 (if Abbott retires then). NY-Gov, even if Trump spent all of the money he had, Cuomo would still blow him over in a De Blasio landslide. And VA-Sen, the definition of overrated. Gillespie can't win unless we somehow get another 2010.

KY-Sen though I also have to disagree with. There's a reason it's hyped so much by Democrats and that's because we want to see the Republican Minority Leader fall like they did to Daschle and with the two candidates now tied, it's still in McConnell's advantage, but he can't afford anything bad happening in Congress again. He'll be weak following the primary, so I don't blame the media for covering this so much given what's at stake and how close Grimes is to winning here.

Look I want Fitzgerald to win too, but barring some massive unforeseeable event, it ain't happening  Especially after he blew the LG selection process.  Also in what way has Fitzgerald's campaign gotten off to a better start than Burke's?  That said WI-Gov is overhyped (I don't know that OH-Gov is that hyped at this point).

It has to!

Ed Schultz has a field day with Kasich and Husted every other week on his show about the suppression happening in Ohio and brings on State Senator Nina Turner (who's running against Husted). Eventually, if Ed Schultz stays true to his promise to keep up with this coverage on it and the other media starts covering it eventually, then I think Kasich can be in big trouble. We know what happened to McCrory's approval rating when the North Carolina story was being talked about everywhere. The latest PPP poll had Kasich's approval at 37% while Quinnipiac had him at 52%, so if those were averaged, Kasich's approval would be 44.5%, which is by no means good for him.

Barring FitzGerald's pick of Kearney, he's already doing everything he should be doing in this race. He's getting his name out there and has traveled to every county in Ohio, he's raising as much money as humanly possible, and he picked a woman which speaks for itself given Kasich's 2013 budget. Burke, on the other hand, while the filing deadline and primary aren't until far off for Wisconsin, she just hasn't seemingly made the presence that FitzGerald has in the Ohio race, and raised even less than the FitzGerald camp did. She should have the advantage to given Walker reported having less money than Kasich this quarter on hand and is considered the more toxic of the two.

[IceSpear]

OH-Gov is overrated? If anything it's underrated for a race that barely gets any coverage. Without Christie, John Kasich is the direct right-hand man of Christie which could set him up for 2016, yet he barely leads his formidable Democratic opponent in his re-election fight with Kasich's approval rating notably going down in our state. Just from reading the article, his only defense is that no Republican incumbent has been defeated for re-election since the Eisenhower years and mentioning nothing else beyond that. On the other hand, Sabato fails to mention how FitzGerald is using the VA 2013 strategy to attack his GOP opponent on women's health, the Ohio economy is stalled, and voter suppression and right-to-work is making it's way into the state which is going to give FitzGerald a substantial advantage. Kasich might have the money advantage, but he's got nothing else going in his favor and lost a lot of support from conservatives who will vote for Earl because of Medicaid expansion. Rothenberg has this race as a tossup while Sabato has it as likely R, so it's obvious who's correct with their prediction.

Calling WI-Gov overrated I can kind of agree on though. Walker is talked about a lot more than Kasich (primarily because Walker is considered the more likely 2016 forerunner), yet Burke's campaign is starting off a lot worse than FitzGerald's currently is with a win over Kasich much more likely at this point than a win over Walker.

TX-Gov, NY-Gov, and VA-Sen I agree with. Everything is going well for Democrats in Texas (Davis outraising Abbott, Abbott and Republicans making several gaffes about Davis etc.), but this seat won't be seriously contested until at least 2022 (if Abbott retires then). NY-Gov, even if Trump spent all of the money he had, Cuomo would still blow him over in a De Blasio landslide. And VA-Sen, the definition of overrated. Gillespie can't win unless we somehow get another 2010.

KY-Sen though I also have to disagree with. There's a reason it's hyped so much by Democrats and that's because we want to see the Republican Minority Leader fall like they did to Daschle and with the two candidates now tied, it's still in McConnell's advantage, but he can't afford anything bad happening in Congress again. He'll be weak following the primary, so I don't blame the media for covering this so much given what's at stake and how close Grimes is to winning here.

Look I want Fitzgerald to win too, but barring some massive unforeseeable event, it ain't happening  Especially after he blew the LG selection process.  Also in what way has Fitzgerald's campaign gotten off to a better start than Burke's?  That said WI-Gov is overhyped (I don't know that OH-Gov is that hyped at this point).

I'm not exactly optimistic about Fitzgerald's chances, but the LG thing is one of the weaker arguments against him. Literally nobody besides political junkies will ever know, remember, or care about that. Most LGs have very low name recognition even after being elected.

[TJ in Oregon]

Honestly I think one of FitzGerald's biggest problems is that he can be easily compared to Josh Mandel: someone who hops from job to job every couple years, apparently driven by political ambition. That's the line of attack on Fitz I've seen that seems to never get refuted.