Your Current 2014 House Ratings

[JerryArkansas]

I know the wrong colors, but I could not find my old ratings.

[free my dawg]

I probably forgot to change a few more (like LA-5, there's no way they're electing a black Democrat who endorsed Obama in a northern Louisiana district), and I'm pretty sure I colored NY-21 in wrong (should be Tilts R), but these are my ratings.

[JerryArkansas]

[SPC]

I'm assuming that a Republican House candidate has to get roughly >49.6% of the vote to win the general election. Lack of third party candidates in some districts may affect the rating.

Safe-Pickups
UT-4
NC-7
CA-31
NY-11

>80% Chance Republican Victory
MI-7
MI-8
OH-14
PA-6
NY-23

>70% Chance Republican Victory
AR-2
VA-10
WV-2

>60% Chance Republican Victory
CA-21
IL-13
MI-1
NE-2
NJ-3
NY-19

Tossup
FL-2

>60% Chance Democratic Victory
AZ-2
CA-52
IL-10
NY-21
WV-3
CO-6
IA-3

>70% Chance Democratic Victory
AZ-1
FL-26
NH-1
IL-12
MN-8

>80% Chance Democratic Victory
MA-6
CA-7
CA-26

[xavier110]

Some NY & New England thoughts: I think Tisei could win in Massachusetts. Kuster holds on in NH-02, less sure about NH-01. With Hassan and Shaheen trouncing their opponents, I expect they drag Shea-Porter across the finish line, but NH is weird, so I can never feel certain. In NY, Grimm is gone, and Bishop may (finally) fall as well. Maloney is reelected.

[Miles]

LA-05/06 are both Lean R just because they're both such question marks; will be re-evaluated after the primary.

[SPC]

LA-05/06 are both Lean R just because they're both such question marks; will be re-evaluated after the primary.

Seems like a bit of a cop out to re-evaluate a House election after November 4.

[Miles]

LA-05/06 are both Lean R just because they're both such question marks; will be re-evaluated after the primary.

Seems like a bit of a cop out to re-evaluate a House election after November 4.

Er, why?

On RRH, for many of their pre-primary digests, they frequently discuss re-evaluating races after primaries. That should especially be the case with these two seats, given the fluidity and volatility of the primary fields.  

[ElectionsGuy]

Anything that is not on this list is Safe R/D.

Safe R:

NC-7 (pickup)
UT-4 (pickup)

Likely R:

AR-4
CA-10
CA-21
IN-2
KY-6
LA-6
MI-7
MI-8
MN-2
MN-3
MT-AL
NM-2
NV-3
NY-19
NY-23
OH-14
PA-8
VA-2
WI-6

Lean R:

AR-2
IL-13
MI-1
PA-6
VA-10

Toss-Up:

AZ-1
AZ-2
CA-52
CO-6
FL-2
FL-26
IA-3
IL-10
NE-2
NJ-3
NY-21
WV-3

Lean D:

AZ-9
CA-7
CA-36
FL-18
GA-12
IA-1
IL-12
MN-8
NH-1
NY-11 (pickup)
TX-23

Likely D:

CA-26
CA-36 (pickup)
CT-5
IL-17
MA-6
ME-2
MN-7
NH-2
NV-4
NY-1
NY-18
OR-5
WA-1

[JerryArkansas]

[Maxwell]

I would move Grimms district to Toss-up, albeit Tilt D, but still.

[JerryArkansas]

His district is tossup on the map.

[Maxwell]

His district is tossup on the map.

I was talking to ElectionsGuy

[JerryArkansas]

His district is tossup on the map.

I was talking to ElectionsGuy

Sorry

[ElectionsGuy]

I would move Grimms district to Toss-up, albeit Tilt D, but still.

I'm still sort of skeptical. Not sure how Staten Island is going to re-elect a indicted asshole and I've only seen one poll.

[SWE]

Safe R:
NC-7 (Open)
UT-4 (Open)

Likely R:
AR-4 (Open)
Jeff Denham (CA-7)
David Valadao (CA-21)
Rodney Davis (IL-13)
Jackie Walorski (IN-2)
MI-8 (Open)
Kevin Cramer (ND-AL)
Joe Heck (NV-3)
Chris Gibson (NY-19)
Bill Johnson (OH-6)
David Joyce (OH-15)
PA-6 (Open)
WI-6 (Open)

Lean R:
Steve King (IA-1)
Dan Benishek (MI-1)
Tim Walberg (MI-7)
Steve Pearce (NM-2)
Tom Reed (NY-23)
NY-21 (Open)
VA-10 (Open)
WV-2 (Open)

Tossup/Tilt R:
Ron Barber (AZ-2)
Scott Peters (CA-52)
Steve Southerland (FL-2)
NJ-3 (Open)
Nick Rahall (WV-3)

Pure Tossup:
AR-2 (Open)
Mike Coffman (CO-6)
Joe Garcia (FL-26)
Brad Schneider (IL-10)
IA-3 (Open)
Lee Terry (NE-2)
Michael Grimm (NY-11)

Tossup/Tilt D:
Ann Kirkpatrick (AZ-1)
Ami Bera (CA-7)
Bill Enyart (IL-12)
Rick Nolan (MN-8)
Carol Shea-Porter (NH-1)

Lean D:
Julia Brownley (CA-26)
ME-02 (Open)
Ann Kuster (NH-2)
Tim Bishop (NY-1)
Dan Maffei (NY-24)
Sean Maloney (NY-18)
Pete Galego (TX-23)

Likely D:
Kyrsten Sinema (AZ-9)
Raul Ruiz (CA-26)
CA-31 (Open)
Emily Esty (CT-5)
Patrick Murphy (FL-18)
John Barrow (GA-12)
HI-1 (Open)
IA-1 (Open)
David Loesback (IA-2)
Bill Foster (IL-11)
Cheri Bustos (IL-17)
Colin Peterson (MN-2)

[Princess Nyan Cat]

Current projection is net gain of 2 seats by Republicans:

Safe R:
North Carolina 7 (gain)
Utah 4 (gain)

Likely R:
Arkansas 2
California 21
Illinois 13
Michigan 1
Michigan 7
Michigan 8
New York 19
New York 23
Pennsylvania 6
Virginia 10
West Virginia 2

Weak R:
Colorado 6
Florida 2
Iowa 3
Nebraska 2
New Jersey 3
New York 21 (gain)
West Virginia 3 (gain)

Weak D:
Arizona 1
Arizona 2
California 7
California 26
California 52
Florida 26
Georgia 12
Illinois 10
Illinois 12
Maine 2
Minnesota 8
New Hampshire 1
New York 1
New York 11 (gain)

Likely D:
Arizona 9
California 31 (gain)
California 36
Florida 18
Illinois 17
Iowa 1
Massachusetts 6
Minnesota 7
New Hampshire 2
New York 18
New York 24
Texas 23

Safe D:
(no pickups)

[SPC]

Updated

I'm assuming that a Republican House candidate has to get roughly >49.6% of the vote to win the general election. Lack of third party candidates in some districts may affect the rating.

Safe-Pickups
UT-4
NC-7
CA-31

>80% Chance Republican Victory
NY-21

>70% Chance Republican Victory
VA-10
WV-2

>60% Chance Republican Victory
AR-2
CO-6
NJ-3

Tossup

>60% Chance Democratic Victory
AZ-1
AZ-2
CA-7
CA-52
FL-26
IL-10
IL-12
NH-1
WV-3
FL-2
IA-3
NE-2

>70% Chance Democratic Victory
CA-26
ME-2
MN-8
NY-11

>80% Chance Democratic Victory
GA-12
IA-1
MA-6
NY-1
NY-18
NY-24

[Miles]

RRH had House ratings out today.

[Atlas Has Shrugged]

It is amazing how Murphy went from being what can basically be described as an accidental Congressman to an almost safe Democrat.

If only Joe Negron or Adam Hasner ran and gave me a campaign to work on this year

[Vosem]

Likely Democratic
Arizona 9 (Sinema)
California 3 (Garamendi)
Connecticut 5 (Esty)
Florida 18 (Murphy)
Hawaii 1 (Hanabusa)
Illinois 11 (Foster)
Iowa 2 (Loebsack)
Massachusetts 9 (Keating)
New York 4 (McCarthy)

Leans Democratic
California 31 (Miller)
California 36 (Ruiz)
Georgia 12 (Barrow)
Illinois 17 (Bustos)
Iowa 1 (Braley)
Massachusetts 6 (Tierney)
Minnesota 7 (Peterson)
New Hampshire 2 (Kuster)
New York 1 (Bishop)
New York 18 (Maloney)
New York 24 (Maffei)
Texas 23 (Gallego)

Tossup/Tilts Democratic
California 26 (Brownley)
Florida 2 (Southerland)
Iowa 3 (Latham)
Maine 2 (Michaud)
Minnesota 8 (Nolan)
New York 11 (Grimm)

Tossup/Tilts Republican
Arizona 1 (Kirkpatrick)
Arizona 2 (Barber)
California 7 (Bera)
California 52 (Peters)
Colorado 6 (Coffman)
Florida 26 (Garcia)
Illinois 10 (Schneider)
Illinois 12 (Enyart)
Nebraska 2 (Terry)
New Hampshire 1 (Shea-Porter)
West Virginia 3 (Rahall)

Leans Republican
Arkansas 2 (Griffin)
New Jersey 3 (Runyan)
New York 21 (Owens)
Virginia 10 (Wolf)
West Virginia 2 (Capito)

Likely Republican
Arkansas 4 (Cotton)
California 21 (Valadao)
Illinois 13 (Davis)
Indiana 2 (Walorski)
Iowa 4 (King)
Kansas 2 (Jenkins)
Michigan 1 (Benishek)
Michigan 7 (Walberg)
Michigan 8 (Rogers)
Michigan 11 (Bentivolio)
Montana AL (Daines)
Nevada 3 (Heck)
New York 19 (Gibson)
New York 23 (Reed)
North Carolina 7 (McIntyre)
North Dakota AL (Cramer)
Pennsylvania 6 (Gerlach)
Utah 4 (Matheson)
Wisconsin 6 (Petri)

Those're my ratings, as of October 19. I'd definitely appreciate it if someone more map-skilled than I am would be able to make a map for them; perhaps indicating Tossups of both stripes as simply Tossup, since the difference between Tilt D and Tilt R is very, very small.

[Princess Nyan Cat]

Things have been shifting in the Republicans favor lately. My current projection is a Republican net gain of 6 seats.

Democrat gain:
California 31 (77% likelihood)
New York 11 (51% likelihood)

Republican gain:
Arizona 1 (56% likelihood)
California 52 (52% likelihood)
Illinois 12 (57% likelihood)
New Hampshire 1 (51% likelihood)
West Virginia 3 (55% likelihood)
New York 21 (75% likelihood)
North Carolina 7 (93% likelihood)
Utah 4 (93% likelihood)

[Mr. Illini]

Just Illinois because that's what I follow most closely.

Safe D
1
2
3
4
5
7
9

Likely D
8
11

Lean D
17

Toss Up
10
13

Lean R
12

Likely R
6

Safe R
14
15
16
18

Analysis:

IL-17: Bustos came out of the gate strong but Schilling has shown that he knows what he is doing. NRCC showed they knew what they were doing here by keeping at it in this district when many thought it was out of play. Quinn will hurt Bustos in this district due to the prevalence of working-class white Dems here. Nonetheless, it is a blue district and Bustos is still favored.

IL-10: Those who think this is Lean D are ignoring the fact that Dold is the Republican running here. His ground game has been seemingly fantastic and his branding as a moderate Republican still sells in the district that has used that brand for so long. Schneider's task will be getting Waukegan to the polls, which it is so far unclear how he has been at doing that. Toss up.

IL-13: Conversely, anyone who has this district at Lean R is ignoring what has been going on in the district. Unfortunately for Callis, the DCCC was forced to shift advertising money to 12 and 10 when those races began to look less secure than previously thought. Unfortunately for Davis, however, Callis' ground game has been great. Voter registration efforts on the college campuses in the district produced the highest numbers of any district for the DCCC. Now it is about getting those voters to vote, which is the unseen piece of the game at this point, keeping it a Toss Up.

IL-12: This race has taken a dramatic turn over the last two months from being somewhere that saw little challenge (it was consensused at Likely D for awhile) to being fiercely contested. Bost has successfully channeled discontent among Southern Illinoisans toward Washington and Springfield and this may be the district that Quinn hurts the DCCC the most. Also worth noting is that unlike 12 and 13, Enyart's campaign doesn't seem to be running a star ground game. It leans R.