Fair Wisconsin Maps

[Gass3268]

Retiring State Senators Dale Shultz (R-Richland Center) and Tim Cullen (D-Janesville) released examples of what fair Wisconsin maps would look like. The two of them have been pushing hard for Wisconsin to copy how Iowa does redistricting. The maps where made by the non-partisan Legislative Reference Bureau. Republicans would have won control of both chambers in 2010, while Democrats would have won back in 2012. Unfortunately, this has no chance of going anywhere in the legislature. I'm currently working with DRA to come up with the 08 and 10 data for these districts. I'll post that here once I'm done.

http://legis.wisconsin.gov/senate/cullen/reform-redistricting/Pages/side-by-side.aspx

[windjammer]

Only 16 seats in the senate?

[Gass3268]

Only 16 seats in the senate?

There are 33, but only 16 were up for election in 2012. 17 will be up for election in 2014. All 99 assembly seats were up in 2012 and will be again in 2014.

[publicunofficial]

Under that Congressional map: Sean Duffy would most likely lose, and Paul Ryan would have a slightly tougher time but would most likely still win. Every other incumbent would be pretty safe.

[hopper]

Under that Congressional map: Sean Duffy would most likely lose, and Paul Ryan would have a slightly tougher time but would most likely still win. Every other incumbent would be pretty safe.

Yeah he 7th District looks a lot better on the fair map than on the current map.

[RedSLC]

Under that Congressional map: Sean Duffy would most likely lose, and Paul Ryan would have a slightly tougher time but would most likely still win. Every other incumbent would be pretty safe.

Yep. The new version of the 7th loses some more republican territory to the 3rd, and replaces it with some reliably democratic area along the Minnesota border, including Eau Claire. I can't see this district going R outside of a wave year.

From the looks of it, though, under the nonpartisan map, Ryan's home in Janesville gets placed in the Madison district, in which case, he'd be even more screwed.

EDIT: Actually, under this map, Duffy would be placed in the 3rd district, where he would have to run against Ron Kind.  Also, Reid Ribble would be placed in the 6th district, with incumbent Republican Tom Petri (though I think this might have been the case in 2010 as well).

[Sol]

It's decent, but I don't know why they tri-chop Milwaukee when they don't have to.

[krazen1211]

Under that Congressional map: Sean Duffy would most likely lose, and Paul Ryan would have a slightly tougher time but would most likely still win. Every other incumbent would be pretty safe.

Yeah he 7th District looks a lot better on the fair map than on the current map.

Duffy wanted to make sure that his opponent wasn't drawn out of the district.

[publicunofficial]

Under that Congressional map: Sean Duffy would most likely lose, and Paul Ryan would have a slightly tougher time but would most likely still win. Every other incumbent would be pretty safe.

Yeah he 7th District looks a lot better on the fair map than on the current map.

Duffy wanted to make sure that his opponent wasn't drawn out of the district.

By his opponent do you mean Julie Lassa? Because the district was drawn specifically to keep her out of a rematch.

[muon2]

When I used DRA to duplicate the Congressional map the CDs don't seem very even in population. Whole county CDs like 7 deviate by over 6000 people. I can't tell what the chop into Milwaukee county by CD 5 is exactly, but it looks like it chops Wauwatosa, or it has a very large deviation.

[Miles]

When I used DRA to duplicate the Congressional map the CDs don't seem very even in population. Whole county CDs like 7 deviate by over 6000 people. I can't tell what the chop into Milwaukee county by CD 5 is exactly, but it looks like it chops Wauwatosa, or it has a very large deviation.

Yeah, thats what I got too. CD3 was also a few thousand off.

[krazen1211]

Under that Congressional map: Sean Duffy would most likely lose, and Paul Ryan would have a slightly tougher time but would most likely still win. Every other incumbent would be pretty safe.

Yeah he 7th District looks a lot better on the fair map than on the current map.

Duffy wanted to make sure that his opponent wasn't drawn out of the district.

By his opponent do you mean Julie Lassa? Because the district was drawn specifically to keep her out of a rematch.

No, Pat Kreitlow, who formed an exploratory committee for the seat in early 2011. Kreitlow had just been booted from the State Senate. Duffy crushed by 12 points and would have crushed under these or substantially similar lines.

[Gass3268]

When I used DRA to duplicate the Congressional map the CDs don't seem very even in population. Whole county CDs like 7 deviate by over 6000 people. I can't tell what the chop into Milwaukee county by CD 5 is exactly, but it looks like it chops Wauwatosa, or it has a very large deviation.

Yeah, thats what I got too. CD3 was also a few thousand off.

The only thing I could think of is that they used current population estimates.

[TJ in Oregon]

Besides the 3/7 weirdness to help Duffy, the actual US House districts look cleaner than the fair drawing ones. Taking the 6th district into Waupaca and Outagamie looks kind of bad and it appears they drew the 1st not only into Milwaukee but to practically downtown. There has to be a better way to split up Milwaukee County than that. Granted Milwaukee County is hard to draw while minimizing splits since the City of Milwaukee has some odd-shaped arms and it also boxes out the north shore suburbs.

[hopper]

I wonder what the PVI would be of a non-gerrymandered 7th would be but I can't find it.

A non-gerrymandered 7th and 3rd would have have to move east more because in a next round of redistricting because the Western Half of the State isn't growing.


 

[hopper]

Retiring State Senators Dale Shultz (R-Richland Center) and Tim Cullen (D-Janesville) released examples of what fair Wisconsin maps would look like. The two of them have been pushing hard for Wisconsin to copy how Iowa does redistricting. The maps where made by the non-partisan Legislative Reference Bureau. Republicans would have won control of both chambers in 2010, while Democrats would have won back in 2012. Unfortunately, this has no chance of going anywhere in the legislature. I'm currently working with DRA to come up with the 08 and 10 data for these districts. I'll post that here once I'm done.

http://legis.wisconsin.gov/senate/cullen/reform-redistricting/Pages/side-by-side.aspx

I salute  both retired Senators in doing the right thing in a bipartisan manner.