Gallup: "Texas likely to stay red for the foreseeable future"

[The Mikado]

Barring significant changes, even when Hispanics become a flat out majority they'll still only be casting <30% of the vote in the state, just like they cast <20% now.

[🐒Gods of Prosperity🔱🐲💸]

I'm going to assume, looking at that Texas county map, that Hispanics are more conservative in Dallas and Houston than in southern Texas?

No, Southern Texas is like 90% Hispanic while the metro areas are much smaller.

The more striking difference is between NW TX and South TX, but a lot of that is just that the portion of Hispanics in NW TX who vote is much smaller.

[Reginald]

The 2012 number is interesting if true, given that CNN reported 27% of Latinos voted Romney nationwide. Perhaps this meme that TX Latinos are more conservative than they are in other states is simply a relic of the Bush years. Regardless, that doesn't explain away the main problem for TX Democrats, which as The Mikado referred to is the massive turnout differential.

[Gass3268]

Democrats have done a great job over the past couple years in voter registration in the 6 largest counties (Bexar, Dallas, El Paso, Harris, Tarrant and Travis). Registered voters are now up 8% in these counties.

http://offthekuff.com/wp/?p=63214

Obviously this won't be enough for Davis, but if they can keep this pace it could make things competitive in 10-20 years.

[Non Swing Voter]

The fact that we are even having this conversation demonstrates how horrible the Republicans have it for Presidential elections. 

[justfollowingtheelections]

Texas, land of the free, home of the brave, and of those who know how to vote.

Texas was 48th in the nation in voter turnout in 2012 (and 47th in 2008).  Apparently, they don't know how to vote.

[politicus]

"Texas likely to stay become red in the foreseeable future"

[MATTROSE94]

"Texas likely to stay become red in the foreseeable future"

"The People's Republic of Texas" lol!

[IceSpear]

Texas is a lost cause for at least a decade, probably a couple decades. I don't know why Dems constantly dismiss their chances in actually winnable states like NC/MO/IN/AZ/GA yet continue to keep this ridiculous Texas fantasy alive.

[DS0816]

Texas is a lost cause for at least a decade, probably a couple decades. I don't know why Dems constantly dismiss their chances in actually winnable states like NC/MO/IN/AZ/GA yet continue to keep this ridiculous Texas fantasy alive.

It's ridiculous if the Democratic Party doesn't expand the map; meaning, the amount/percentage of states carried in presidential elections won by the party. By today's standard, Democrats couldn't feasibly win in Texas if the party isn't carrying an average of four of every five states. Since after the 1980s, we have approximately three of every five states getting carried. (Average, since 1992, is actually 29 states.)

[hopper]

Texas is a lost cause for at least a decade, probably a couple decades. I don't know why Dems constantly dismiss their chances in actually winnable states like NC/MO/IN/AZ/GA yet continue to keep this ridiculous Texas fantasy alive.

Lets see...

NC-I think the the Dems know they can win NC or at least come pretty close in 2016.

MO-No I don't think they will win the state its trending R. Even in the Dem Wave Year of 2008 McCain still carried it albeit still very close 50-49%.

AZ-nah still too R to put money into winning there.

GA-Its PVI hasn't changed in a decade.

IN- see AZ. I think 2008 was a fluke.

[hopper]

The 2012 number is interesting if true, given that CNN reported 27% of Latinos voted Romney nationwide. Regardless, that doesn't explain away the main problem for TX Democrats, . Perhaps this meme that TX Latinos are more conservative than they are in other states is simply a relic of the Bush yearswhich as The Mikado referred to is the massive turnout differential.

Well no TX Hispanic do vote more R than in other states. Latino Decisions had these numbers from the 2012 Presidential Election:

CO: Latino's voted 10% for Romney
NV: 15% Romney
AZ: 17% Romney
OH 17% Romney
CA: 20% Romney
NM: 21% Romney
NC: 27% Romney
TX  28% Romney
VA: 31% Romney
FL: 39% Romney

So, only VA and FL Hispanics voted more Republican than TX Hispanics did in the states than Latino Decisions surveyed.

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Probably true.  Texas Hispanics seem to be more Republican than Hispanics as a whole.

[bobloblaw]

The DIRTY LITTLE SECRET of TX poltiics is the GOP gets a larger percentage of the hispanic vote than the Dems get of the white vote. This means the gap might narriow from 15-20 points to 10 points, but it never closes to ZERO.

[politicus]

The DIRTY LITTLE SECRET of TX poltiics is the GOP gets a larger percentage of the hispanic vote than the Dems get of the white vote. This means the gap might narriow from 15-20 points to 10 points, but it never closes to ZERO.

Unless this changes. Nothing last forever.

[Mehmentum]

The DIRTY LITTLE SECRET of TX poltiics is the GOP gets a larger percentage of the hispanic vote than the Dems get of the white vote. This means the gap might narriow from 15-20 points to 10 points, but it never closes to ZERO.

Unless this changes. Nothing last forever.

I imagine African Americans throw a kink in this as well.

[bobloblaw]

The DIRTY LITTLE SECRET of TX poltiics is the GOP gets a larger percentage of the hispanic vote than the Dems get of the white vote. This means the gap might narriow from 15-20 points to 10 points, but it never closes to ZERO.

Unless this changes. Nothing last forever.

I imagine African Americans throw a kink in this as well.

The black vote in TX is small, under 10%. GA has a larger % hispanic population than TX has black.