Gallup 2013 conclusion on voters in Texas:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/167339/texan-hispanics-tilt-democratic-state-likely-stay-red.aspx?utm_source=alert&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=syndication&utm_content=morelink&utm_term=PoliticsGallup points out a number of reasons as to why Texas is likely to stay Republican in what it calls the "foreseeable future", probably meaning something like the next 2, 3 or 4 presidential elections. Their reasoning goes like this:
1. Texas Hispanics are much less Democratic than nationwide. Their Democratic margin is 30% in the other 49 states, but only 19% in Texas.
2. Texas Hispanics have become much more Republican over the span of the last 5 years, even relative to the national trend (and even despite Romney's self-deportation comment & the hostility of the Arizona governor towards them)
3. Texas whites are way more Republican than nationwide. Their Republican margin is only 10% in the other 49 states, but a strong 35% in Texas.
4. Texas whites have become even more Republican over the span of the last 5 years, even trending harder than the national trend for whites
5. Texas whites are much more Republican than Texas Hispanics are Democratic. Texas whites are 61% Republican, while Texas Hispanics are "only" 46% Democratic. Texas Republicans lean Republican by a whooping 35% margin, while Texas Hispanics lean Democratic by "only" a 19% margin.
6. Texas whites are almost twice as likely to be registered voters than Hispanics are. In 2013, 82% of non-latino whites were registered, compared to only 43% of the state's Hispanics.
7. Texas Hispanics are much less likely to be registered voters than Hispanics nationwide. The average percentage of registered Hispanics is 50% in the other 49 states, compared to the lackluster 43% among Texas Hispanics.
8. Still, even in 2013, non-latino whites made up an impressive 64% of the entire registered voting pool. At the same time, the state's Hispanics only made up 19% of the same pool. That's an astonishing difference in whites' favor by no less than a 45% margin, meaning that for every Hispanic voter, there will be more than three non-latino white voters voting as well.
Personally, I think that last argument - that whites still make up more than a 3-1 difference in the voting pool vis-a-vis Hispanics is the most compelling argument of them all. I think Hispanics need to make up at least 35% of the voting pool before the state will become really competitive. At least as long as Texas Hispanics don't identify themselves with Democrats at a higher rate than they do now.
