TJ's District Maps Series

[TJ in Oregon]

I've decided to make one of these threads myself for a Cube Root Rule map US House. I'm fine with taking outside submissions to the thread. However, I want to add a new wrinkle to this and require the Michigan Rule: no unnecessary county splits and no unnecessary municipal splits. I'm going to assume the VRA does still apply, but is subordinate to minimizing county splits but more important than minimizing municipal splits.

[TJ in Oregon]

Wisconsin:


Milwaukee Area Close-up:


Essentially, the challenge is to figure out how to split Milwaukee County since the North Shore suburbs are boxed out by the City of Milwaukee, without causing a loop of districts that split counties.

1 (blue-Kenosha): Obama 53.4%-McCain 45.1% Tossup/Lean R
2 (green-Waukesha): McCain 57.0%-Obama 41.9% Safe R
3 (purple-Madison): Obama 73.2%-McCain 25.1% Safe D
4 (red-Wauwatosa): Obama 50.3%-McCain 48.3% Lean R
5 (gold-Milwaukee): Obama 84.0%-McCain 15.1% 44.2% VAP Black Safe D
6 (lime-Sheboygan): McCain 54.6%-Obama 44.1% Safe R
7 (gray-Central Wisconsin): Obama 53.1%-McCain 45.4% Tossup/Lean R
8 (black-Driftless Area): Obama 61.8-McCain 36.6% Safe D
9 (cyan-Eau Claire): Obama 56.8-McCain 41.3% Likely D
10 (maroon-Appleton): Obama 53.8%-McCain 44.5% Lean R
11 (green-Green Bay): Obama 53.7%-McCain 44.9% Lean R
12 (orange-NW Wisconsin): Obama 53.3%-McCain 44.9% Lean R

8-4 GOP

[TJ in Oregon]

I assume that municipalities which span multiple counties can be split along county lines with no penalty, since your Wisconsin map does just that in several spots.  (And it might make following the Michigan Rule literally impossible in some cases otherwise.)

Though the rule is usually stated as don't split counties unless necessary, and then don't split municipalities; the underlying principle is to not split the lowest-level communities.

So I would adjust the county boundaries to match municipality boundaries, placing the municipality in the county with the most population.

Interestingly, I would take the opposite interpretation and weight not splitting counties above not splitting municipalities. While not splitting the local communities may be the right principal, we have the county lines we have, and short of coming up with a complicated set of rules for each state, we have to follow the lines as they are. Granted your proposed method of dealing with it would be just as robust in resisting abuse.

[TJ in Oregon]

Also, should the county split rule still hold in New England, where most counties have literally no function?

This is the question I'm trying to fully flesh out in the NECTA thread. Counties don't count for chops, but NECTAs do. No town should be chopped either.

For the purposes of this thread, the county split rule still applies, although it's probably not the best rule specifically for New England. The Pacific Coast also has some issues with counties too.

[TJ in Oregon]

Wyoming 1 R
Vermont 1 D
South Carolina 8-2 R
Wisconsin 6-6
Georgia 12-9 R
Pennsylvania 16-12 R
Virginia 9-9
Connecticut 7-1 D
Mississippi 5-2 R
New Mexico 4-1 D
New Jersey 13-6 D

I’m using Traininthedistance’s Wisconsin rather than mine due to my extra unnecessary split of Milwaukee County.

I’m not counting the MD and TN maps since I think they probably violate the VRA by chopping Memphis (and in the case of MD an 81% black seat).

Any seat listed as tossup, I'm going to estimate which direction it would tilt for the purposes of this count.

65 Republicans, 65 Democrats so far

[TJ in Oregon]

As I'm sure everyone knew was coming, Ohio:



SW Ohio:


1 (blue-Cincinnati): Obama 57.9%-McCain 41.1% Lean D
2 (green-Cincinnati Suburbs): McCain 55.2-Obama 43.7 Safe R
3 (purple-Dayton): Obama 50.4%-McCain 48.2% Lean R
4 (red-Athens): McCain 53.1%-Obama 44.9% Lean R
5 (gray-Portsmouth): McCain 58.2%-Obama 39.7% Safe R
6 (lime-Hamilton): McCain 61.6%-Obama 37.1% Safe R
7 (orange-Beavercreek): McCain 59.2%-Obama 39.3% Safe R
8 (purple-Columbus East): Obama 76.0%-McCain 22.8% Safe D
9 (yellow-Columbus West): McCain 49.4%-Obama 49.2% Likely R
10 (maroon-Delaware): McCain 53.2%-Obama 45.6% Safe R
11 (chartruse-Mansfield): McCain 55.2%-Obama 42.4% Safe R
12 (sky blue-Wapakoneta): McCain 59.2%-Obama 39.0% Safe R
13 (peach-Lima): McCain 60.1%-Obama 38.0% Safe R
14 (olive-Newark): McCain 54.5%-Obama 43.4% Safe R
15 (slate-Marietta): McCain 51.8%-Obama 45.9% Lean R

Cleveland Area:


16 (midnight-Youngstown): Obama 61.1%-McCain 36.7% Safe D
17 (cyan-Toledo): Obama 64.7%-McCain 33.8% Safe D
18 (blue-Sandusky): Obama 57.5%-McCain 40.7% Likely D
19 (orange-Medina): McCain 52.0%-Obama 46.4% Likely R
20 (sea green-Canton): Obama 49.2%-McCain 48.8% Lean R
21 (black-Akron): Obama 62.5%-McCain 36.0% Safe D
22 (olive-Lake County): McCain 49.6%-Obama 48.7% Likely R
23 (lime-Cleveland South): McCain 49.6%-Obama 49.3% Likely R
24 (maroon-Cleveland West): Obama 67.5%-McCain 35.0% Safe D
25 (yellow-Cleveland East): Obama 86.0%-McCain 13.3%, 59.6% VAP Black Safe D


It turns out even with cube root seats the only VRA seat that can be drawn is one on the east side of Cleveland. The Columbus East seat is also likely to elect an African American, although it is only 34.8% Black, the Democratic Primary is probably majority black.

Also, it would be interesting to see a Democratic Michigan rule Ohio drawn; (not that I was trying to help them) but Ohio's geography definitely favors the GOP.

Most likely 17-8 and really not that many seats are competitive.

[TJ in Oregon]

Maryland 8-5 D
Ohio 17-8 R

87 Republicans, 81 Democrats so far